MS Risk Blog

CAR Party Calls for Manual Recount of First-round Votes

On Monday, the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People (MLPC) party disclosed that a top candidate in presidential elections, Martin Ziguele, wants a manual recount of the first-round votes because of alleged irregularities.

According to the party, Ziguele, a former prime minister who came fourth out of thirty hopefuls in the 30 December vote, plans to go to the Constitutional Court in a bid to “demand a manual recount of the voting slips.” The party has accused the National Authority for Elections (ANE) of breaching the electoral code as it released figures “each day muddling up different (administrative districts) with varying rates of vote counting, rendering any checks and follow-up impossible.” Provisional first-round results have shown that former government heads Georges Dologuele and Faustin Archange Touadera are posed to face off for presidential office in the sound round on 31 January after leading the field. However Ziguele has argued that the jumbled release of results made it “impossible for each candidate to verify that all votes in their favor, constituency by constituency, polling station by polling station, have been fully taken into account.” A statement released by the MLPC further indicated that the party questioned “a sharp and unjustified fall in the number of votes” between partial results that were issued on 6 January and the full provisional figure, which was released the following day. According to the MLPC, around 230,000 votes went “uncounted and thus were not attributed to candidates.” The latest tensions surrounding the presidential elections come after a score of presidential candidates last week denounced alleged fraud in the election and called for a halt to the process. Eighteen of those candidates went on to jointly back Touadera, an outsider which they called “the only real political alternative.”

Xenophobia Spreading Across Europe Since Paris Attacks

Xenophobic tendencies have been growing for a long time across Europe with race-hatred related crimes being reported frequently and an increased support for anti-immigration parties, especially since the influx of migrants increased to extreme numbers and it became an issue. An upswing of these tendencies in everyday life, incidents of discrimination and general behaviour towards strangers of different cultures has been noticeable after the terrorist attacks in Paris in November. It appears Muslims are taking the hardest blow because there is a tendency to link terrorism to Islam. Tell Mama, a project recording anti-Muslim crimes in the UK, published reports in November revealing a 300% increase of hate crimes directed at Muslims since the Paris attacks. Perhaps this, if anything, confirms the theory that people tend to fear what they don’t know. The question is where does it stop? How much discrimination can be accepted because people are afraid after 13^th of November? Early in December a Moroccan man who was praying and watching a religious movie prior to the take-off on a Paris-bound Air France flight from Copenhagen’s airport was forced to leave the aircraft due to a complaint by another passenger. The man had to take another flight to his country after having his luggage search by airport police, upon which nothing suspicious was found. In Northern Ireland, journalist Angela Rainey conducted a social experiment after having noticed the high number of hate-crimes aimed at Muslim women. A mother in Antrim, reportedly told her child that nightmares would follow if looking at women wearing burqa, and referring to them as “mental”. Rainey has described incidents where she was called a “terrorist” and told she was “not in [her] own country now”. She also noted how security guards and policemen were suspicious towards her, while others accused her of trying to break into cars and told her to take her veil off. In early December, in southern England, a Muslim man was asked to leave National Express coach following a complaint from a fellow passenger, who said she would feel “uncomfortable” travelling with him because of his religion. A staff member is then said to have stepped in to ask the man to get off the coach service. A spokesperson for the National Express said: “We categorically deny an incident in which a passenger was asked to leave one of our coaches was in any way Islamophobic”, claiming that the man was asked to leave because of a dispute over his luggage. However, fellow passengers who witnessed the incident claim to have overheard the conversation between the woman and the driver, and insist that the man was asked to leave because of his religion and not because of his luggage. The xenophobia doesn’t just show in incidents of discrimination, but also in crimes. A man in Leeds allegedly tried to buy pigs’ heads and feet from a butcher because he wanted to desecrate mosques. According to the Armley butcher, a smartly-dressed man walked in saying he wanted to buy all the pigs’ heads and feet that he could, and when asked why, he said: ‘Because I want to desecrate as many mosques as possible’. In other European countries anti-immigration marches have been taking place in protest against the influx of refugees. In Finland demonstrators have even been seen wearing Ku Klux Klan masks while marching in the area of Kempele, a small town that was shook by the rape of a teenager, allegedly carried out by man from a migrant centre. Locals in the area have said that they have changed their behaviour since the incident, and out of fear have started escorting their children to school even though they never did in the past, while others say they are avoiding unknown areas after dark. In some, the fear has clearly turned into rage, and refugees have been compared to the Finnish deserters during wartime, whom normally ended up getting shot. Others have said young men should be swapped for refugees who need the help more, like families, women and children.

Hate crimes and acts of discrimination signal a growing popular discontent with the influx of migrants and it is equally clear from the political opinion as the support for anti-immigration- and far right wing parties across Europe have increased steadily. In October Poland elected one of Europe’s most right-wing parliaments, kicking out the long ruling centrists. Earlier on last year the anti-EU, anti-immigration People’s Party in Denmark gained huge support, while in neighbouring Sweden the Sweden Democrats, a party started in the late 1980s as a white supremacist group, has steadily risen in polls, and become one of the country’s most popular parties. In Austria the far-right Freedom Party came second during regional elections in the summer. These political parties have had a tendency to speak of the consequences the influx of refugees will have on their countries, fuelling the already lit spark of fear. In Poland Law and Justice party figure and former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski warned that Muslim refugees would bring parasites and diseases, while in the Sweden Democrats’ leader Jimmie Åkesson stated last year that “Islamism is the Nazism and Communism of our time.” Hungary’s Viktor Orban has said that the refugees entering Europe “look like an army.” These are just some examples. The long-term discontent with the influx of migrants has been fuelled by the fear of terrorism since the Paris attacks and it is to a larger extent considered a realistic threat that hiding among refugees is a way for terrorists to enter Europe. This has led countries to oppose the quota system, some have altered it and suggested only Christian refugees are welcome, while others have built walls and closed borders. Some are convinced the far-right parties are here to stay, that this is their time.

Egypt Announces That There Is No Evidence of Terrorism in Russian Plane Crash

On Monday, 14 December, Egyptian officials reported that so far, they have found no evidence of terrorism or other illegal action linked to the 31 October crash of a Russian passenger plane in Sinai, which killed all 224 people on board. The plane came down en route to Russia from the resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

While Russian and Western governments have previously reported that the Airbus A321, which was operated by Metrojet, was likely brought down by a bomb, with a group linked to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group claiming responsibility and stating that it had managed to smuggle an explosive on board, Egypt’s civil aviation ministry has indicated that it has completed a preliminary report on the crash, adding that it had so far found no evidence of a criminal act. In a statement, the ministry disclosed that “the technical investigative committee has so far not found anything indicating any illegal intervention or terrorist action.” Russia had previously reported that a bomb brought down the Metrojet Airbus, after finding what it said were “traces of foreign explosives” on the debris. It has vowed to “find and punish” the perpetrators.”

In response to Monday’s findings, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov re-iterated that “our experts concluded this was a terrorist attack.”

What is known is that the plane crash has affected Egypt’s tourism industry, which is a cornerstone of the economy. According to the country’s tourism minister, tourism revenues for 2015 will be at least 10% below last year’s.  The plane took off from Sharm el-Sheikh, a Red Sea resort that is popular with British and Russian holidaymakers. Furthermore, the incident has raised serious questions about airport security, which has prompted both Britain and Russia to suspend flights into Sharm el-Sheikh. Egypt is now also facing a two-year Islamist insurgency in the Sinai, which has killed hundreds of soldiers and police. Shortly after the 31 October plane crash, IS stated that the bombing was in response to Russian airstrikes in Syria. Last month, IS’ magazine published a photo of what it claimed was the improvised bomb that brought down the airliner. The picture in Dabiqu showed a Schweppes Gold soda can and what appears to be a detonator and a switch.

Latest Report Indicates More Journalist Hostages but Fewer Imprisoned in 2015

In its annual report, which was published on 15 December, media rights group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) disclosed that while fewer journalists were imprisoned this year, the number held hostage increased, noting that China and Egypt were named the worst nations for jailing media workers.

According to the RSF, the number of journalists put in prison fell fourteen percent in 2015 from last year. Furthermore, fifty-four professional journalists were held hostage in 2015, an increase of 35 percent from the last year. The reports points to Syria as the country with the highest number of reporters in the hands of extremist or criminal groups at 26. The report also indicates that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group alone holds eighteen journalists, largely in Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

The report also described China as “the world’s biggest prison for journalists,” followed by Egypt, adding that Iran and Eritrea were also condemned for jailing members of the press.

RSF secretary-general Christophe Deloire noted that “a full-blown hostage industry has developed in certain conflict zones.” He highlighted Yemen as being the newest problem country for reporters, with thirty-three journalists kidnapped by Houthi militias and al-Qaeda militants in 2015, compared with just two in the previous year. According to Deloire, “we are very alarmed by the increase in the number of reporters held hostage in 2015. The phenomenon is above all linked to the big surge in abductions of journalists in Yemen.”

Meanwhile lawless Libya had the largest number of journalists reported missing this year. With eight members of the press unaccounted for, the RSF noted that the political climate “makes it harder to conduct investigations to locate missing journalists.”

IS Moving Further Into Libya in a Bid to Gain Access to Oil

On 14 December, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reported that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group is spreading from its stronghold on the Libyan coast to the interior of the country, with the aim of getting access to oil wells.

Speaking to RTL radio, Le Drian stated that “they are in Sirte, their territory extends 250 kilometres (155 miles) along the coast, but they are starting to penetrate the interior and to be tempted by access to oil wells and reserves.” Libya has 48 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, the largest in Africa and the ninth biggest in the world.

News of IS’ spread further into Libya comes as world powers are trying to convince the country’s warring factions to lay down their weapons and to fall behind a new national unity government, warning that IS-allied groups are continuing to exploit the ongoing political chaos in a bid to take parts of the country.

Sources have reported that last week, French planes carried out surveillance flights over Libya. Comments by the French Defense Minister are likely to be a reference to reported attempts by IS militants to expand from Sirte into the town of Ajdabiya in the east. In recent weeks, there have been increasing reports of the presence of extremist groups in the town, however it remains unclear whether they are affiliates of al-Qaeda or IS. However if IS successfully manages to expand into Ajdabiya, then this could cut off oil supplies from that part of the country, where key oil terminals are located. In October, there was at least one failed attack by IS militants at the gates of Es Sidr oil terminal. Furthermore, throughout this year, other smaller oil fields in central Libya have also been attacked.

Libya has slipped into chaos since the fall of Moamer Kadhafi in 2011, which IS has exploited. The United Nations believes that there are between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters operating in the country, including 1,500 in the coastal city of Sirte. Since August 2014, when an Islamist-backed milia alliance overran Tripoli, Libya has had rival administrations.