MS Risk Blog

Examining the Rivalry Between al-Qaeda and Islamic State

The 20 November 2015 attack on a luxury hotel in the Malian capital of Bamako killed nineteen people and highlighted Mali’s ongoing security concerns. In the wake of the attack, three terrorist groups known to operate regionally claimed responsibility. Amongst them is al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Many experts have indicated that the attack was partly aimed at asserting the global terror network’s relevance as it continues to face an unprecedented challenge from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group for leadership of the global jihadi movement. It came exactly a week after IS carried out several attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people in what is the bloodies attack on France in decades. That attack, which is also the deadliest to take place on the European continent in the last ten years, also marked the first time that suicide bombers were used to carry in Europe, it has also prompted the questioning of security across the European Union and the ongoing migration crisis. What is evident however is that in recent years, al-Qaeda has to a certain degree been eclipsed by the IS group and its self-styled caliphate. As IS continues to expand in Syria and Iraq, and garners further allegiance from terrorist groups operating in other regions of the world, such as Nigerian-based Boko Haram, al-Qaeda is attempting to remind the world that the movement founded by Osama bin Laden continues to pose a serious threat.

Origins

IS began as al-Qaeda in Iraq, a local affiliate that battled American troops and carried out deadly attacks which targeted the country’s Shi’ite majority. However from the beginning there were tensions between the local group, led by Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and al-Qaeda’s central leadership. In a 2005 letter, which was obtained and publicized by US intelligence officials, Osama bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, objected to al-Zarqawi’s brutality towards Shi’ite civilians, stating that it would turn Muslims against the group. While Al-Zarqawi was killed in a US airstrike in 2006, he is seen by man as being the founder of IS, which continues to use brutal tactics.

In 2013, IS leader Abu Bakh al-Baghdadi renamed the group the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and proclaimed his authority in Iraq and in neighbouring Syria. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, the al-Nusra Front, rejected the move and swore allegiance to al-Zawahri, who ordered al-Baghdadi to confine his operations to Iraq. Al-Baghdadi however refused and by 2014, al-Nusra Front and IS were battling each other across northern Syria. This split was felt across the world, with al-Qaeda affiliates in Yemen and Northern Africa remaining loyal to al-Zawahri while others choosing to pledge their allegiance to IS.

Differences

While both al-Qaeda and IS want to end Western influence in the Middle east, and want to unite Muslims under a transnational caliphate that is governed by a strict version of Islamic law, both groups are bitterly divided over tactics. Bin Laden believed that attacking the “far enemy” of the US would weaken its support for the “near enemy” of Arab autocracies and rally Muslims to overthrow them. Under al-Zawahri, local al-Qaeda affiliates have sought to exploit post-Arab Spring chaos by allying with other insurgents and tribes and by cultivating local support in places such as Syria and Yemen, where they provide social services. For bin Laden, who was killed in a US raid in Pakistan in 2011, as well as his successor al-Zawahri, the establishment of a caliphate was a vaguely defined end goal.

IS however began seizing and holding territory in Syria and Iraq and later forming affiliates across the Middle East, and into Africa. In the summer of 2014, IS declared a caliphate, and deemed the Syrian city of Raqqa as its capital. Al-Baghdadi has since claimed to be the leader of the world’s 1.6 billion Muslims, however an overwhelming majority have rejected his ideas and brutal tactics.

Terrorist Groups that Operate in Mali

In the wake of the 20 November deadly attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, Mali, competing claims released by terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Macina Liberation Front and al-Murabitoun, highlight the number of militant Islamist groups that operate in Mali, a country that has a weak central government and vast ungoverned spaces.

While most of the groups that operate in the West African country trace their origins to al-Qaeda’s North African branch, memberships amongst these groups over the years has become very fluid between them. What is important to note, however, is that for the most part, they have not allied themselves with the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, which is al-Qaeda’s main rival for dominance of the world’s jihadist movements. While other terrorist groups, which operate on the African continent, such as Nigerian-based Boko Haram, have declared allegiance to IS, others, such as Somali-based al-Shabaab, have seen themselves splinter, with some leaders choosing to remain with al-Qaeda while others opting to pledge allegiance to IS.

In 2012, Mali became a focal point for jihadis groups, when for nine months, Ansar Dine, which is composed mainly of ultraconservative Tuareg tribesmen, and other Islamic extremists took over northern Mali. They were later pushed out by a French-led military intervention in 2013. In the wake of France launching Operation Barkhane in 2014, radical groups operating in northern Mali have suffered heavy losses, as French troops have targeted the groups in their havens in northern Mali, as well as in Niger and along the Libyan border. Throughout this year, radical groups have expanded their operations, moving from the desert regions of northern Mali, and into more urban towns and cities in the central and southern areas of the country.

AQIM

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is al-Qaeda’s North African Branch. It expanded south into Mali under pressure from Algerian security forces in the early 2000s. The group went on to make a fortune in smuggling and ransoming hostages. Under militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the group recruited disaffected Malians and Mauritanians and expanded its presence within the Sahara desert region.

Ansar Dine

The group, which is led by Tuareg Iyad Ag Ghali, emerged in 2012 as a religious alternative to the largely secular Tuareg separatists operating in northern Mali. Ansar Dine allied itself with al-Qaeda and took over much of the north before being driven back into the desert by the French army.

MUJAO

The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, which was founded in 2011, has been described as a splinter group from AQIM. The group has carried out attacks across West Africa, including the kidnapping of aid workers and Algerian diplomats. During the Tuareg uprising in northern Mali, the group briefly controlled the northern Malian city of Gao.

Al-Murabitoun

Founded by Mokhtar Belmokhtar in 2013, it effectively combined MUJAO with Belmokhtar’s own Masked Brigade and completed his shift to a more Saharan-focused entity. The group claimed an attack on a Bamako restaurant, which killed five in March of this year. While earlier this year, there were reports that Belmokhtar was killed by a US airstrike, these claims have been denied both by his terrorist group and al-Qaeda. There have also been unconfirmed reports that others now lead the group and that it has pledged allegiance to the IS.

Macina Liberation Front

While this group is relatively new, appearing in January 2015, it has proven to be deadly. Militants have targeted Malian security forces in the central regions of Mopti and Segou. Many of its members are believed to have formerly been with MUJAO and are members of the Peul ethnic group.

Boko Haram

While Boko Haram has not carried out any attacks in Mali, the Nigerian-based terrorist group poses a threat to the region, as it has carried out deadly attacks in the Lake Chad area, which includes Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. Boko Haram has expanded its aims from wanting to impose strict Sharia law in Nigeria’s northeastern region to recreating an ancient Islamic caliphate across the borders into Cameroon, Chad and Niger. The group has pledged allegiance to IS.

Ansaru

Ansaru broke away from Boko Haram and has since been blamed for the kidnappings of foreigners in northern Nigeria and northern Cameroon.

Burkina Faso Releases Preliminary Election Results

The head of the country’s electoral commission disclosed on Monday that Burkina Faso should announce provisional election results on Monday.

Speaking at a news conference late on Sunday, Barthelemy Kere, president of the Independent National Electoral Commission, disclosed that there was a strong turnout in all 45 provinces and that logistical problems at the start of the day were by-and-large resolved, adding that the elections were peaceful.   The electoral commission has announced results for 21 communes, out of a total of 368 communes. The results show that Roch Marc Kabore is in the lead, with Zephirin Diabre in second.

On Sunday, Burkina Faso voted in an election to choose the West African country’s first new president in decades. On the ground sources have reported that people formed long lines at polling stations to vote for the president. Polls closed at 6 PM local time. A second round will be held if no candidate secures a majority. The country’s election commission has disclosed that over five million people are registered to vote, adding that it will publish preliminary results as soon as Monday. A successful election in Burkina Faso would effectively establish the country as a beacon for democratic aspirations in Africa, where veteran leaders in Burundi and Congo Republic have changed constitutions in a bid to pave the way for fresh terms in office. Furthermore, Sunday’s election also represents a turning point for the country, which, for most of its history since gaining independence from France in 1960, has been ruled by leaders who came to power in coups.

Brussels On Edge: Fear at the Heart of a European Capital

Since the attacks in Paris on November 13, Belgium has come under extensive international scrutiny. On November 26, the Belgian Government reduced the threat level in Brussels from 4 (the highest level) to 3. That concluded a five day period during which Brussels came to a virtual standstill. From November 21 to 25, the city was placed on a level 4 terrorism alert with public buildings, schools and public transit systems closed. In addition, the Belgian Government warned people not to gather in public or participate in demonstrations. On November 23, NATO and European Union facilities opened for the week with increased security and only essential personnel working. The headquarters of Belgium’s largest bank, KBC Groep NV, remained closed at the start of the business week.

In a highly unusual decision, the Belgian Government deployed hundreds of members of the Belgian Armed Forces onto the streets of Brussels. Hundreds of Belgian police officers searched for Salah Abdeslam (one of the Paris attackers) and other ISIS operatives. As of November 27, Abdeslam has not been captured and the public has been warned to remain vigilant. Even when the transit system was reopened on November 26, over 200 police officers were deployed at throughout the system. Belgium had previously conducted large counter-terrorism operations in January, but the November Brussels lockdown was far bigger in scale.

The intensity of the Belgian police operations over the past week has been unprecedented. On November 21-22 alone, police conducted at least 20 raids in Brussels and surrounding suburbs. Of the 16 people detained, 15 were ultimately released. The one individual kept in custody was charged on November 23 for his involvement with the Paris attacks and ISIS. Dozens of more police raids followed on November 21, with 21 people being detained with 17 being released. Two of the men arrested in the second round of raids were linked directly to the November 13 Paris Attacks. Hamza Attou and Mohammed Amri admitted they drove Salah Abdeslam from Paris back to Brussels on the evening of November 13. However, they denied any direct involvement with the attacks. Two other men, an unidentified French national and Moroccan national, were arrested in the Molenbeek neighbourhood. According to police, the Moroccan man’s vehicle contained two handguns.

Senior Belgium Ministers have said the increased alert level was due to specific intelligence about possible attacks in the Brussels area. Belgium’s Interior Minister, Jan Jambon, said there were particular fears of an imminent attack on November 22. Foreign Minister Didier Reynders has also stated that Belgian police are searching for “maybe 10 or more people in Belgium, maybe in neighbouring countries, present in the territory to organise some terrorist attacks.” Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel has assured his country that there were no longer imminent fears of a terrorist attack. However, he has warned Belgians that the threat of an attack, particularly in Brussels, is still a serious concern. Though the largest lockdown in modern Belgian history may have ended, anxiety continues to linger about Salah Abdeslam and ISIS.

Al-Shabaab Warns Against Shifting Allegiance to IS

Al-Shabaab insurgents have warned that they will “cut the throat” of members who shift allegiance from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic State (IS). The news emerges amidst reports that some factions have already been punished for doing so.

On Monday, in a radio broadcast, top al-Shabaab official Abu Abdalla stated that, “if anyone says he belongs to another Islamic movement, kill him on the spot,” adding, “we will cut the throat of any one…if they undermine unity.” Al-Shabaab, which has been a long-time branch of al-Qaeda in East Africa, is fighting to overthrow the internationally-backed government in Mogadishu. While the insurgents have lost much ground in recent years, they continue to be a threat in both Somalia and neighboring Kenya, where they have carried out a series of deadly attacks.

Reports of divisions within al-Shabaab come at a time when IS in Iraq and Syria has become what many see as being the jihadist franchise of choice. It has attracted fighters from abroad as well as the allegiance of other militant groups, such as Boko Haram, which operates in northeastern Nigeria. However recently, al-Qaeda expanded its territory in Yemen, which is located just across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia, and has proven that the group continues to have the capabilities to carry out deadly attacks despite, to a certain degree, being overshadowed by IS. Sources have reported that while a handful of al-Shabaab factions have switched allegiance from al-Qaeda to IS, the shift has failed to gain momentum. Furthermore, pro-IS groups have been attacked and their leaders assassinated as al-Shabaab emir and al-Qaeda loyalist Ahmed Diriye seeks to shore up his control. Last month, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud disclosed that “the now-public dispute” within al-Shabaab demonstrated that the group had “lost its way.” On Monday however, top al-Shabaab official Abdalla maintained that the insurgent group remained united, stating, “the world wanted us to be divided…This is a collective decision and anybody who wants to join another Islamic group must leave the country to meet them where they are,” adding, “I swear by the name of God we will not tolerate the acts of saboteurs.”