MS Risk Blog

Islamic State Menace on the Rise in Africa

United States experts have recently warned that two extremists movements in Africa, which have affiliated themselves with the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, could become a major threat on the continent if they come together and boost cooperation.

While for now, Islamist rebels who are operating in Libya and have proclaimed allegiance to IS, along with Boko Haram in Nigeria, have traded little more than praise over the Internet, along with probably some fighters and weapons. However experts are now warning that this could change and may develop into a regional threat. According to a former CIA analyst, “they could decide that instead of fighting to achieve their immediate local objective they decided to shift their focus and go after Western interests,” adding, “for instance, Boko Haram attacking the French soldiers of Barkhane, or the Americans in Cameroon.” The former refers to a French anti-terror operation that is currently taking place in the Sahel region of central Africa. While the former analyst noted that such cooperation could take place, he added that both groups are likely not yet there.

Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance to IS earlier this year, and renaming itself Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP), appears for now to be more of a rebranding move, which came as the group was forced out of territory, which it had previously held in northeastern Nigeria. Experts however are warning that it could also be a transition into a larger global jihadist agenda. Movements that are geographically isolated can benefit from adopting the initials, symbols and rhetoric of the most feared Islamist extremist organization in the world. Over this past year, IS has been able to hold large swathes of territory in Syria and neighbouring Iraq, despite an ongoing coalition bombing campaign. Furthermore, it has also carried out deadly attacks in the region, including blowing up a Russian airliner over Egypt, and has inspired attacks on Civilians from Paris to London to California.

This move to a larger global jihadist agenda is already being seen within boko Haram, specifically in the attacks that it has carried out over the past few months, and in the way that it has begun to market itself. Boko Haram’s pledge of allegiance to IS and its renaming could enable the terrorist group to recruit foreign fighters. It is highly likely that Boko Haram has gained some advise on military tactics, as experts have noticed that despite ongoing military operations in northeastern Nigeria, Boko Haram’s attacks have become increasingly coordinated. In turn, the latest Boko Haram videos released by the group are of a more professional quality then older videos. They also carry the insignia of IS. Sources have disclosed that while the numbers remains small, there are indications that the flow of fighters towards Africa has already begun. Last month, two young French people were arrested in Tunisia as they were trying to reach zones controlled by IS in neighbouring Libya. Furthermore, experts have reported that in the April edition of its magazine, Dabiqu, IS called on volunteers to consider joining Boko Haram “if you can’t join the caliphate.”

In Libya, experts have noted that groups that have professed loyalty to IS have expanding rapidly, with some increasing their numbers from 200 to 2,000 members over the past year. Their growing power, fuelled by the post-Kadhafi political and security chaos that currently exists across Libya, has resulted in great concern for European officials. One expert has noted that if ties between Boko Haram and IS evolve further, this could develop into Boko Haram militants being trained in Libya, if IS gains further ground in the country.

Third Paris Bataclan Music Venue Attacker Identified

Last week on Wednesday 9 December, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls announced that French police have identified the third attacker at the Bataclan during the Paris attacks.

While Mr Valls did not name the man, he also did not dispute media reports, which have named him as French national Foued Mohamed-Aggad, aged 23, from Strasbourg. On the night of 13 November, three men stormed the Bataclan at around 21:40 local time, during a concert by the Eagles of Death metal rock group. They opened fire on concern-goers, repeatedly reloading their guns before police arrived at the scene. Ninety people were killed at the Bataclan. All three gunmen who attacked the venue, and who were wearing suicide vests, have been confirmed as French nationals.

According to sources, Mohamed-Aggad reportedly travelled to Syria in late 2013 as part of a group of radicalized youth from Strasbourg, which included his brother. While several members of that group were arrested upon returning to France in the spring of last year, Mohamed-Aggad is believed to have remained in Syria. According to sources, Mohamed-Aggad was identified late last week by police after DNA samples were confirmed to match with members of his family.

The two others who blew themselves up at the Bataclan last month were identified as Frenchmen Omar Ismail Mostefai, 29, and Samy Amimour, 28.   Mostefai was identified from a finger-tip that was found at the venue. He was reported to have previously worked as a baker in Chartres, near Paris, however in 2010, authorities identified him as a suspected extremist. Amimour, from the northeastern Paris suburb of Drancy, had been charged with terror offences in 2012 over claims that he was planning to travel to Yemen. After being placed under judicial supervision, he disappeared, which prompted French authorities to issue an international arrest warrant.

One source has indicated that we are now sure that Mostefai, Amimour, Mohamed Aggad, Bilal Hadfi and suspected ringleader Abdelhamid Abaaoud had travelled to Syria, adding that Mohamed-Aggad was slightly different as it appears that he likely spent longer in Syria than the others. Additionally, two of the Stade de France attackers were believed to have come to Europa via the Greek Island of Leros, with officials noting that they may have been posing as Syrian refugees.

French media are reporting that Mohamed-Aggad was recruited by Mourad Fares, a man known to have actively recruited young Frenchmen on behalf of jihadist groups operating in Syria. Fares was arrested last year in Turkey. At the time, French Inferior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve described him as a “particularly dangerous individual close to jihadist terrorist movements” including the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. He was placed under provisional detention in France in September 2014 and is being prosecuted for a number of terrorism-related offenses in France and Syria.

One other Paris attacker remains to be identified.

The other attackers who took part in the co-ordinated attacks around Paris, which killed 130 people in total, have either been identified as home-grown French or Belgian extremists.

Police in Greece Tried to Capture Paris Attacks ‘Ringleader’

Reports have surfaced that police in Greece tried to capture the suspected ringleader of the 13 November terror attacks in Paris, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, in January however the operation failed.

According to a Belgian anti-terrorism source, the Athens operation planned to target Abaaoud before anti-terror raids in Belgium, however that did not happen. Abaaoud, who died in a battle with French police just five days after the Paris attacks that killed 130 people, had been directing the Belgian cell by phone from Athens. According to a source, the Greek operation was supposed to have taken place before one that was carried out by security forces in Verviers, eastern Belgium, on 15 January. That raid saw an exchange of fire and resulted in the death of two suspected jihadists.

Greek authorities were on Abaaoud’s trail, believing that he was running the Belgian cell by mobile phone from Athens. Anti-terror sources have disclosed that a senior Belgian police officer was in Athens, where he was co-ordinating the hunt for Abaaoud with his Greek counterparts prior to the raid on the Verviers cell. While it remains unclear why or how Abaaoud was able to get away, there may have been an attempt to track him down to a city square by tracing the signal of his mobile phone, however that did not work. The Greek authorities are not confirming any details, and all that is known is that he was able to successfully get away. What else is known is that two days after the Veviers raids, Greek police carried out raids in Athens on 17 January. Earlier that day, Belgian media had reported that Greek authorities were searching for Abaaoud, a Brussels resident of Moroccan origin who was believed to be hiding in Greece. Greek police raided two flats in Athens. While one Algerian man was eventually extradited to Belgium, Abaaoud was not found. It is now known that traces of DNA recovered in both flats match samples that were recovered from Abaaoud’s body in Paris. A neighbour at one of the flats also reported seeing Abdelhamid Abaaoud in the street outside on at least two occasions.

Abdelhamid Abaaoud had been implicated in four out of six foiled attacks since this spring in France. However he is not the only link between Greece and the Paris attacks. Salah Abdeslam, who remains on the run, travelled to Greece by ferry from Italy on 1 August. He left three days later. Furthermore, two of the suicide bombers who attacked the Stade de France crossed by boat from Turkey to the island of Leros in October. They were posing as refugees.

Much of the information that has emerged about the operation in Athens ha raised questions about how to create a better exchange of information and close cooperation between anti-terrorism authorities in difference European countries.

Islamic State Financier Chief ‘Killed in Air Strikes’

A United States military spokesman reported on 10 December that the finance chief of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has been killed in air strikes carried out by the US-led coalition.

According to the spokesman, Muwaffaq Mustafa Mohammed al-Karmoush, also known as Abu Salah, along with two other senior leaders, were killed in the air strikes, which occurred in “recent weeks.” No further details pertaining to the strikes have been released. US military spokesman Col. Steve Warren has also confirmed the deaths.

Abu Salah is the code name for Muwaffaq Mustafa Mohammed al-Karmoush. He appears on the US Treasury’s Counter Terrorism Designations list setting out sanctioned individuals. It lists him as an Iraqi national who was born in 1973. Col. Warren called Abu Salah “one of the most senior and experienced members” of the militant group’s financial network, adding that “killing him and his predecessors exhausts the knowledge and talent needed to co-ordinate funding within the organizations.” He further disclosed that the other leaders killed in the air strikes were Abu Mariam, a senior chief responsible for extortion activities, and Abu Waqman al-Tunis, who co-ordinated the transfer of people, weapons and information. Brett McGurk, special US presidential envoy for the global coalition to counter IS, has reported that the three were killed “as part of the coalition campaign to destroy ISIL’s (Islamic State’s) financial infrastructure.”

The coalition has been carrying out air strikes against IS militants both in Syria and in neighbouring Iraq for over a year. One of these airstrikes recently killed an IS leader in Libya. On Monday, 7 December, the Pentagon confirmed that a US air strike killed Abu Nabil, adding that he died after an F-15 jet targeted a compound in the eastern city of Derna on 13 November.

Chaos Erupts in CAR as Country Votes for Constitution in Lead-up to Presidential Polls

On Sunday, 13 December, violence erupted in the capital city, Bangui as Central Africans tried to vote for the country’s new constitution. The referendum, which is a precursor to long-delayed presidential and legislative elections due on 27 December, is also seen as a test of whether national elections can take place. The political situation in the CAR was further complicated on Tuesday after a Central African rebel leader declared an autonomous state in his northeastern stronghold.

On Sunday, gunfire, a grenade explosion and threats of violence prevented many from voting in a constitutional referendum seen as a test of whether national elections can take place at the end of this month. According to a source, an attack on a voting station in the PK5 neighbourhood by gunmen killed at least one person and injured six others. Gunshots had been heard in the Bangui neighbourhood since early on Sunday. There was also a grenade explosion near a voting centre in the northern Gobongo neighbourhood of the capital. That incident resulted in three people injured. Meanwhile in Kaga Bandoro in the country’s north, an armed group threatened to kill people who went to vote while in the central town of Bria, voting material was set on fire. While the referendum, for which 2 million people were registered to vote at more than 5,500 stations, continued elsewhere, there were some reports of missing voter cards.

Due to Sunday’s violence, the referendum spilled into a second day on Monday. According to a Red Cross official, five people were killed and thirty-four others were wounded during clashes that erupted in Bangui. A military commander of the UN peacekeeping mission has disclosed that the clashes were an attempt by “spoilers” to block the vote from taking place. While on Monday, on the ground sources reported that the streets of Bangui were calm, with soldiers from the UN’s MINUSCA mission visible at key junctions, a spokesman for the prime minister’s office has disclosed that voters in some northern parts of the country were not able to participate because fighters loyal to Seleka commander Noureddine Adam had blocked the vote. Adam’s faction states that conditions, such as the return of refugees, are not in place to allow polls to proceed. The situation in the CAR was further complicated on Tuesday when Adam declared an autonomous state in his northeastern stronghold after rejecting elections this month, which are aimed at ending years of bloodshed.

According to Maouloud Moussa, a spokesman and chief lieutenant for Adam, “the Republic of Logone was proclaimed Dec. 14 in (the town of) Kaga-Bandoro,” adding, “what we want first of all is autonomy. Then we’ll look at how to move towards independence.”

The spokesman for the CAR’s transitional government immediately denounced the rebels’ declaration. Dominique Said Panguindji stated, “we call upon the international community and the international forces present in Central African Republic to do everything possible to neutralize the capacity to do harm of these terrorists.”