MS Risk Blog

Islamic State Financier Chief ‘Killed in Air Strikes’

A United States military spokesman reported on 10 December that the finance chief of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has been killed in air strikes carried out by the US-led coalition.

According to the spokesman, Muwaffaq Mustafa Mohammed al-Karmoush, also known as Abu Salah, along with two other senior leaders, were killed in the air strikes, which occurred in “recent weeks.” No further details pertaining to the strikes have been released. US military spokesman Col. Steve Warren has also confirmed the deaths.

Abu Salah is the code name for Muwaffaq Mustafa Mohammed al-Karmoush. He appears on the US Treasury’s Counter Terrorism Designations list setting out sanctioned individuals. It lists him as an Iraqi national who was born in 1973. Col. Warren called Abu Salah “one of the most senior and experienced members” of the militant group’s financial network, adding that “killing him and his predecessors exhausts the knowledge and talent needed to co-ordinate funding within the organizations.” He further disclosed that the other leaders killed in the air strikes were Abu Mariam, a senior chief responsible for extortion activities, and Abu Waqman al-Tunis, who co-ordinated the transfer of people, weapons and information. Brett McGurk, special US presidential envoy for the global coalition to counter IS, has reported that the three were killed “as part of the coalition campaign to destroy ISIL’s (Islamic State’s) financial infrastructure.”

The coalition has been carrying out air strikes against IS militants both in Syria and in neighbouring Iraq for over a year. One of these airstrikes recently killed an IS leader in Libya. On Monday, 7 December, the Pentagon confirmed that a US air strike killed Abu Nabil, adding that he died after an F-15 jet targeted a compound in the eastern city of Derna on 13 November.

Chaos Erupts in CAR as Country Votes for Constitution in Lead-up to Presidential Polls

On Sunday, 13 December, violence erupted in the capital city, Bangui as Central Africans tried to vote for the country’s new constitution. The referendum, which is a precursor to long-delayed presidential and legislative elections due on 27 December, is also seen as a test of whether national elections can take place. The political situation in the CAR was further complicated on Tuesday after a Central African rebel leader declared an autonomous state in his northeastern stronghold.

On Sunday, gunfire, a grenade explosion and threats of violence prevented many from voting in a constitutional referendum seen as a test of whether national elections can take place at the end of this month. According to a source, an attack on a voting station in the PK5 neighbourhood by gunmen killed at least one person and injured six others. Gunshots had been heard in the Bangui neighbourhood since early on Sunday. There was also a grenade explosion near a voting centre in the northern Gobongo neighbourhood of the capital. That incident resulted in three people injured. Meanwhile in Kaga Bandoro in the country’s north, an armed group threatened to kill people who went to vote while in the central town of Bria, voting material was set on fire. While the referendum, for which 2 million people were registered to vote at more than 5,500 stations, continued elsewhere, there were some reports of missing voter cards.

Due to Sunday’s violence, the referendum spilled into a second day on Monday. According to a Red Cross official, five people were killed and thirty-four others were wounded during clashes that erupted in Bangui. A military commander of the UN peacekeeping mission has disclosed that the clashes were an attempt by “spoilers” to block the vote from taking place. While on Monday, on the ground sources reported that the streets of Bangui were calm, with soldiers from the UN’s MINUSCA mission visible at key junctions, a spokesman for the prime minister’s office has disclosed that voters in some northern parts of the country were not able to participate because fighters loyal to Seleka commander Noureddine Adam had blocked the vote. Adam’s faction states that conditions, such as the return of refugees, are not in place to allow polls to proceed. The situation in the CAR was further complicated on Tuesday when Adam declared an autonomous state in his northeastern stronghold after rejecting elections this month, which are aimed at ending years of bloodshed.

According to Maouloud Moussa, a spokesman and chief lieutenant for Adam, “the Republic of Logone was proclaimed Dec. 14 in (the town of) Kaga-Bandoro,” adding, “what we want first of all is autonomy. Then we’ll look at how to move towards independence.”

The spokesman for the CAR’s transitional government immediately denounced the rebels’ declaration. Dominique Said Panguindji stated, “we call upon the international community and the international forces present in Central African Republic to do everything possible to neutralize the capacity to do harm of these terrorists.”

Tunisia Reopens Its Border With Libya

On Friday, 11 December, Tunisia reopened its border with Libya, just fifteen days after it closed the frontier following a suicide bombing in Tunis, which was claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.

According to Walid Louguini, a ministry spokesman, “the border with Libya was opened Thursday at midnight.” On the ground sources have reported that the crossing points of Ras Jedir and Wazen-Dhehibe were opened on Friday amidst extra security.

Tunisian officials ordered that the border crossings with conflict-stricken Libya be closed after the 24 November attack on a bus that was carrying presidential guards. The attack occurred along a main thoroughfare in the capital city and resulted in the death of twelve personnel. The attack, which was claimed by IS, prompted Tunisian authorities to increase security and surveillance at its borders and to reimposed a month-long state of emergency as they try to grapple with the increased threat that is emanating from lawless Libya. Shortly after the attack, the interior ministry reported that the explosives used in that attack were the same which were used to make suicide belts that were illegally brought from Libya and seized last year.

This year, IS has claimed three deadly attacks in Tunisia. In March, twenty-two people were killed at the Bardo National Museum in Tunis while in June, thirty-eight people, mainly British holidaymakers, were gunned down at the seaside resort of Sousse. Last week, as part of increased security measures, Tunisian authorities closed the main Tunis-Carthage international airport to Libyan planes. Official sources estimate that as many as 6,000 Tunisians have travelled to fight in Iraq, Syria and Libya, with many opting to join a number of extremist militant groups that are known to operate in the region, including IS.

Germany is Hunting Suspect linked to Paris Attacks Mastermind

German media reports indicated on Friday that German security services are searching for a man who is wanted in connection with last month’s terror attacks in Paris, France.

According to sources, the 42-year-old man, who has been only named as Huseyin D, is believed to have spent time with Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the alleged organizer of the attacks. German newspaper Der Spiegel, which carried a photo alleged to be of Huseyin D with Abdelhamid Abaaoud, has indicated that the suspect is believed to be in Turkey. Huseyin D is reportedly from Dinslaken, in northwestern Germany, and was part of a group that had travelled to Syria. Abaaoud was killed in a gun battle with police just days after the attacks, which were claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. The 13 November Paris attacks killed 130 people and prompted a Europe-wide security alert.

Meanwhile in another development, German prosecutors disclosed that they raided the flat of a man suspected of possibly helping plan an attack on last month’s Germany-Netherlands football match. The Hannover stadium was evacuated just under two hours before kick-off. At the time, police disclosed that the decision to evacuate was made after a “concrete security threat.”

While German police gave no details of Thursday’s raid, and no arrests were made, De Spiegel has reported that the suspected 19-year-old student believed to have made a short video at the stadium in which he says “pray for Raqqa” and the Islamic State group’s name.

Two men linked to the Paris attacks – Salah Abdeslam and Mohammed Abrini – remain on the run and investigations have been launched in several European states. Furthermore, Belgian prosecutors are also seeking two other men thought to have helped Abdeslam travel to Hungary in September.

Leaders Warn of Possible IS Expansion into War-Torn Libya

The so-called Islamic State (IS) group has built a base in Libya, from which to exploit tribal conflicts and expand across Africa, though experts have said that the jihadists remain vulnerable even if the West’s attention is elsewhere.

Since the overthrow and death of dictator Moamer Kadhafi, Libya has collapsed into a chaotic country, which has seen militias competing against one another for control. The country’s current insecurity has made it an ideal place for IS to expand into. While Libya not only offers an alternative base for the group, if it is forced out of its current territory in Syria and Iraq, many experts fear that it could also take advantage of the ongoing tribal conflicts and could expand southwards into the Sahel desert region of central Africa, particularly Chad, Niger and Sudan. According to one expert, “IS is provoking tensions and making alliances,” particularly between the competing Tuareg and Toubou tribes.

While for now, IS has only a limited foothold in Libya, it is enough to project violence into neighbouring states, particularly Tunisia, where the group has already claimed three deadly attacks this year.   Furthermore, Libya lies just 800 kilometres (500 miles) across the Mediterranean from Italy, and is a route for thousands of refugees, which is another weakness that IS militants could exploit.

Within Libya, IS jihadists have gradually built up control of several towns that were of minimal interest to other militias already operating in the country. Most notably is Kadhafi’s coastal home town of Sirte, which is located east of Tripoli. According to Geoff Porter, head of the US-based North Africa Risk Consultancy, “Libya without a state is not really a functioning place. IS in Libya would be vulnerable to the same problems as the Kadhafi regime – including the need to import 70 percent of its food – and there’s a much smaller population from which to extort revenue and taxes,” adding, “were they to be eradicated in Syria and Iraq, they could try to relocate the bulk of their activities to Libya, but they would be a potentially more manageable threat.” The country’s long coastline and desert plains effectively leaves IS vulnerable to outside attack. However as in Syria and Iraq, the major problem for the West will be finding partners on the ground to fight IS militants. Libya currently has two governments who are vying for power: a militia alliance, which includes Islamists, that overran Tripoli in August 2014; and the internationally recognized administration that fled to eastern Libya. While Western efforts have focused on fostering a reconciliation between the tow sides, hoping that they will then turn their firepower on IS and other jihadist groups that operate in the country, months of UN-brokered talks have made minimal regress. For now, IS has been held in check by the armed opponents that operate in the country. IS was driven out of the city of Dernam in June by an al-Qaeda affiliate. It is also jostling for control in other areas.

Despite the threat that IS could take over Libya, there is little chance that the West will intervene in Libya any time soon as its attention is almost entirely focused on Syria. However there have been some international leaders who have warned of the growing threat. Amongst the few leaders to focus on Libya is Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who warned last week that it could be the “next emergency.” The Untied States has also been quietly targeting IS in the country. It has claimed to have killed its Libyan leader, Abu Nabil, with a drone strike that targeted a compound in Derna on 13 November.