MS Risk Blog

Attack on Hotel in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

As at 21:50 hrs GMT Friday 15 Jan 16 FLASH TRAFFIC.  On Friday evening, gunfire and explosions were heard in the central part of Ouagadougou.  Witnesses have reported seeing three gunmen near the Splendid Hotel, which is located in a busy district of the capital and frequented by United Nations officials and westerners.   A car was also set on fire in front of the hotel.   Unconfirmed reports of car bomb(s).  The “Cappuccino” cafe located across the hotel is also believed to have been targeted.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that there is a hostage situation in the hotel.

This situation is not confirmed as over.  Do not journey into the centre of Ouagadougou until it is confirmed safe to do so.  Shelter in a safe place.  Account for all expat and local national personnel.

Expect heavy military presence in the coming days including vehicle checkpoints and increased controls at and near airport and other potential iconic targets.  Be prepared for potential disruption to flight schedules.   Liaise with embassies for additional information when practical.

The attack on the hotel comes just weeks after warnings of such attacks in the wake of the attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, Mali.

Belmokhtar: “The Uncatchable” Jihadist

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, whose jihadists have claimed an assault on a luxury hotel in Mali in late November, shot to global notoriety when his militants carried out an assault on an Algerian gas field two years ago. Long known as “The Uncatchable,” international militaries have tried to catch him on numerous occasions. Despite several reports of his death, it is evident that Belmokhtar remains alive and continues to have the capabilities of carrying out deadly attacks across the Sahelian region.

In mid-November 2015, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian revealed that United States bombers as recently as June were sent out to target the elusive 43-year-old Algerian born and bred in the country’s desert hinterland. Washington has pledged a reward of US $5 million on his head. Of all the jihadist leaders in the Sahel region that straddles the southern Sahara, it is Belmokhtar’s photo that features on the wall of the French army commander’s office in Gao, which is located in northern Mali. Colonel Luc Laine has stated that “it reminds me that he exist and wants to do me harm.”

A source within the Malian intelligence services has disclosed that “Mokhtar Belmokhtar is the backbone of all jihadists.” He was behind the 2013 attack on the In Amenas natural gas complex in the remote south region of Algeria, in which 39 hostages and 29 Islamists were killed. In May of this year, he reaffirmed that his group, al-Murabitoun, remained loyal to al-Qaeda, effectively denying allegiance, which was paid to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group by another of the movement’s leaders.

Born in 1972, in the ancient desert city of Ghardai, which is located 600 kilometres (370 miles) south of the Algerian capital, Belmokhtar stated in a rare 2007 interview that he was drawn away from home by his fascination with the exploits of the mujahedeen who were combating the Soviet invaders of Afghanistan. He had joined the in 1991, when he was barely 19 years old. He claims that it was in Afghanistan that he lost his eye when it was hit by shrapnel. He also states that it was there that he made his first contacts with al-Qaeda. He later joined al-Qaeda’s ranks and would eventually rise to a senior position.

Now nicknamed Lawar (The One-Eyed), Belmokhtar returned to Algeria in 1993, just a year after the government sparked a civil war by cancelling an election, which the Islamic Salvation Front was poised to win. At this point, he joined the Armed Islamic Group (GIA), which conducted a violent camping of civilian massacres in its battle against the government. During the violence, the group would sometimes wipe out entire villages. His knowledge of the nearly lawless “Grey Zone” of southern Algeria, northern Mali and neighbouring Niger effectively enabled him to thrive in the region.

In 1998, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) broke away from the GIA. Belmokhtar, who had now gained the nickname “The Uncatchable” by a former chief of French intelligence, opted to go with them. Nine years later, the GSPC formally adopted to the jihadist ideology of Osama bin Laden and renamed itself al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) – effectively becoming al-Qaeda’s North Africa branch. Since then, AQIM has managed to create a tight network across the sub-Sahara Sahel zone. They are comfortable operating in the harsh desert terrain and have been able to finance their operations through the making of millions of dollars from the ransoms of European hostages.

In 2012, when a Tuareg rebellion opened the way for a jihadist takeover of northern Mali, officials reported that Belmoktar purchases weapons in Libya, adding that he was twice seen at the side of Iyad Ghaly, the Tuareg head of Ansar Dine jihadists, in Gao and Timbuktu. There have been conflicting reports about his departure from al-Qaeda, with some reports stating that he was pushed out as one of AQIM’s top two leaders in northern Mali for what one regional security official said were his “continued divisive activities despite several warnings.” Other reports have suggested that he separated from AQIM in a bid to form another terror group that would further its spread in Africa. In January 2013, a group calling itself the “Signatories in Blood,” and led by Belmokhtar, claimed responsibility for the Algiers gas field assault. The attack occurred just a few days after France launched a military operation aimed at helping Malian troops in the north stem a jihadist invasion.

In May 2013, just two months after he was reportedly killed by Chadian troops in Mali, he claimed responsibility for deadly attacks against Nigeria’s army in Agadez and against French firm Areva, which mines uranium in Niger. Al-Murabitoun was formed months later, in August, when his “Signatories in Blood” group joined forces with another regional jihadist group, MUJAO. In March, the group claimed its first deadly attack against westerners in Bamako. Five people were killed in that attack.

Just days after the 20 November attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, al-Murabitoun claimed responsibility, stating “this blessed operation comes as a response to the assaults of the Crusaders on our people, our sanctities, and our mujahideen brothers in Mali.”

Ongoing Insecurity in Lake Chad Region Stretches Aid Agencies

Aid agencies have reported that a series of suicide bombings in Lake Chad in recent months, which have all been blamed on Boko Haram insurgents, has hindered healthcare and aid delivery, effectively leaving tens of thousands of displaced people living in fear of further violence.

In early December, four female suicide bombers attacked the island of Koulfoua, killing at least fifteen people and injuring a further 130 in what is just the latest in a wave of bombings that prompted the Chadian government last month to declare a state of emergency in the Lake Chad region.

While Chad has been instrumental in forcing Boko Haram to cede territory earlier this year, ongoing operations in northeastern Nigeria have effectively forced Boko Haram militants to seek shelter elsewhere. Reports have indicated that while some have used the porous borders to slip into Cameroon, Chad and Niger in a bid to remain safe, experts believe that most militants are hiding on islands located on Lake Chad. The swampy maze of islands in the border areas between Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria has now become a main target for the militant Islamist group.

According to medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), more than 50,000 people have been forced to leave their homes due to the violence and threat of further attacks, which has hampered the provision of supplies and healthcare to those in need. According to Federica Alberti, MSF head of mission in Chad, “living conditions were already poor and there was a lack of healthcare before the attack, which have left people living in fear,” further adding that “it is challenging to respond in the region because we know more attacks will happen, but do not know when and where, and we can’t go everywhere due to security constraints.” The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has also disclosed that new restrictions aimed at stopping attacks, such as bans on motorised canoes, enforced after the state of emergency was extended until March, have also hindered access for aid agencies.

The UN World Food Programme (WFP) has also disclosed that the violence in the region has disrupted livelihoods including fishing and farming, and has hit cross-border trade and markets, adding that this has left one in ten of those uprooted without enough to eat. According to Mary-Ellen McGroarty, WFP country director for Chad, “we are dealing with a harsh climate and environment in a region which has limited infrastructure and development…it is a humanitarian crisis on top of a development crisis.”

While Lake Chad countries, backed by Benin, have vowed to defeat Bok Haram by using members of an 8,700-strong regional task force, security sources have disclosed that there are growing sings that national armies are instead acting alone.

Saudi Arabia Announces Islamic Anti-Terrorism Coalition

On 15 December, Saudi Arabia announced that thirty-four mainly Islamic nations have joined a new military alliance aimed at fighting terrorism. News of the alliance comes amidst international pressure for Gulf Arab states to do more in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.

State media have reported that a joint operations centre is to be established in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. According to Saudi Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman, the new alliance would co-ordinate efforts against extremists in Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Syria. Prince Mohammed has further disclosed that the decision to form such an alliance “…comes from the Islamic world’s vigilance in fighting this disease (Islamic extremism) which has damaged the Islamic world.” He further added that “currently, every Muslim country is fighting terrorism individually…so co-ordinating efforts is very important.” While few other details about the coalition have been released, Prince Mohammed has disclosed that the coalition would not just focus on fighting IS.

The SPA state news agency has report that then other “Islamic countries” had expressed support, including Indonesia, with Prince Mohammed stating that “these countries have procedures to go through before joining the coalition, but out of keenness to achieve this coalition as soon as possible, (the alliance of) 34 countries has been announced.” In announcing the coalition, the SPA indicated that Islam forbids “corruption and destruction in the world” and that terrorism represents “ a serious violation of human dignity and rights, especially the right to life and the right to security.”

The list of 34 members is the following: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Palestinians, Qatar, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria are not part of the coalition. Saudi Arabia is already part of the US-led coalition against IS and is also leading a military intervention in Yemen against Shia Houthi rebels.

Ugandan Politicians Raise Fears of Violence Ahead of Next Month’s Presidential Polls

On Saturday, Ugandan political candidates raised fears of violence ahead of presidential polls next month, with accusations of police brutality and claims that opposition groups are organization milita forces.

Seven opposition candidates are vying to end President Yoweri Museveni’s 30-year rule in the 18 February poll. Museveni, who has been in power since 1986, currently faces his stiffest opposition from Kizza Besigye, a three-time loser for the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and Amama Mbabazi, a former prime minister and ruling party stalwart who now leads the Go-Forward party. All sides are accusing each other of arming militas in a bid to press their claim to political power. Last week, Prime Minister Ruhakana Rugunda warned, “we are following up reports that a small group of the radical opposition are talking and planning violent actions during and after the election.” He further indicated that the “government has established that some of these groups, under the guise of training agents to protect their votes, are raising semi-milita groups,” adding, “these groups, we have learnt, are being prepared to incite provocation and violent confrontations, starting on polling day until the swearing ceremony in case they lose the lections.” Opposition leaders however have dismissed these claims, and in turn have accused security forces of backing the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) to harass the president’s rival. According to Kizza Besigye, who has called on the president to “stop using police and other state apparatus to intimidate, harass, arrest our supporters,” “the trend of violence has left us worried.” Ex Prime Minister Mbabazi has also disclosed that “we have seen acts of violence wherever we have been. Police have used teargas and live bullets to stop our rallies…We ask President Museveni to stop these acts. If he does not act, then people will be forced to rise up and who knows what comes out. We have seen such situations elsewhere turning violent and Uganda is no exception.” Police chief Kale Kayihura has stated that police have recruited around a million civilians as “crime preventers,” describing them as “part of the police effort to enforce community policing.” Opposition politicians however say that the teams are partisan and back the ruling NRM. All eight candidates are due to hold a live televised debate on 15 January.