MS Risk Blog

Paris Attacks Update: Terror Suspect to be Extradited to France

A court in Belgium has approved the extradition to France of Mohamed Abrini, a key suspect in both the Paris and Brussels attacks. Prosecutors however have disclosed that he may not be handed over for some time as he is currently being investigated in Belgium. Mohamed Bakkali, another suspect in the November 2015 attacks in Paris, will also be extradited.

Belgian judges have agreed that both men should be sent to France in order to face questioning over the Paris attacks, which killed 130 people. Prior to the hearing, Belgian prosecutors disclosed that Abrini would not be handed over the French authorities immediately, as he was still being investigated over the bombings at Zaventem airport and at a metro station immediately after. According to a spokesman for the federal prosecutor’s office, “the timeline is not at all fixed,” adding that it was possible that Abrini could stand trial in Belgium first before being handed over to France, or he might be questioned in Belgium by French investigators.

Abrini, a 31-year-old Belgian of Moroccan descent, was identified as “the man in the hat,” seen on CCTV just moments before the explosions at Brussels airport in March. He was also filmed at a petrol station in northern France with fellow suspect Salah Abdeslam, two days before the Paris attacks. He reportedly told investigators that he was at the scene of the 22 Mach suicide bombings in Brussels, which killed 32 people.

Investigators claim that the Brussels and Paris attackers were part of the same network, adding that they were backed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. Abrini was said to be part of that cell, and before his arrest in Brussels in April, he was one of Europe’s most-wanted men.

The other suspect who will be extradited, 29-year-old Mohamed Bakkali, is believed to have rented the Brussels apartment where the suicide vests that were used in the Paris attacks were assembled.

UK Votes Brexit

The world woke up on Friday to find out that the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union (EU). As the markets tumbled overnight, with the pound plunging to record lows, uncertainty has taken over across the UK as British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will step down in the fall.

Polling stations opened on 23 June at 7 AM BST and closed at 10 PM BST. While polls indicated shortly after voting ended that the Remain camp was going to be the likely winner, overnight, as the vote count came in, it increasingly became apparent that Brits had voted to leave the EU. While Prime Minister David Cameron had urged the country to vote Remain, he was ultimately defeated by 52% to 48% despite London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backing staying in. The referendum turnout was 71.8% – with more than 30 million people voting. It was the highest turnout at a UK-wide vote since 1992. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has hailed Thursday’s vote as the UK’s “independence day.” Mr Farage, who has over the past twenty years campaigned for Britain to leave the EU, told cheering supporters that “this will be a victory for ordinary people, for decent people.” Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has stated that the EU vote “makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union” after all 32 local authority areas returned majorities for Remain. It is thought that Scotland may seek another referendum on separation from the UK.

The impact of the vote however has already been felt across the UK and on international markets, with the pound falling to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results. Bank of England governor Mark Carney has stated that UK banks’ “substantial capital and huge liquidity” allowed them to continue to lend to businesses and households, adding that the Bank of England is ready to provide an extra £250 billion of support.

PM to Step Aside

Despite MP’s signing a letter overnight urging Prime Minister David Cameron to stay on whatever the result, on Friday morning the Prime Minister announced that he will step down by October after the UK voted to leave the EU. Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, he disclosed that he would attempt to “steady the ship” over the coming weeks and months, noting however that “fresh leadership” was needed. Flanked by his wife Samantha, Prime Minister Cameron indicated that he had informed the Queen of his decision to remain in place for the short term and then hand over to a new prime minister by the time of the Conservative conference in October. He has indicated that it will be for the new prime minister to carry out negotiations with the EU and invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would effectively give the UK two years in order to negotiate its withdrawal.

Process to Leave the EU

While Britain is set to be the first country to leave the EU since its formation, the Leave vote does not immediately mean that Britain ceases to be a member of the 28-nation bloc.

That process could take a minimum of two years, with Leave campaigners suggesting during the referendum campaign that it should not be completed until 2020 – the date of the next scheduled general election. Once Article 50 has been triggered, a country cannot re-join the EU without the consent of all member states. Prime Minister Cameron previously indicated that he would trigger Article 50 as soon as possible after a Leave vote. However Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, who led the campaign to get Britain out of the EU, have disclosed that the prime minister should not rush into it. They have also indicated that they want to make immediate changes before the UK actually leaves the EU, such as curbing the power of EU judges and limiting the free movement of workers, potentially in breach of the UK’s treaty obligations. The government will also have to negotiate its future trading relationship with the EU and fix trade agreements with non-EU countries.

In Whitehall and Westminster, there will now begin the massive task of unstitching the UK from more than 40 years of EU law, deciding which directives and regulations to keep, amend or ditch.

EU Leaders Call for Stability and Solidarity in Wake of Vote

In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, shocked EU leaders have called for stability and solidary but also for change and reform. While President of the European Council Donald Tusk has stated that the remaining 27 members are determined to stay united, leaders like Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi have stated that the EU had to change and become “more human and more just.”

The European parliament has called for a special session for Tuesday 28 June to assess the vote, while foreign ministers of the six founding nations of the EU – Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg – will met in Berlin on 25 June. Some leaders of EU member states, such as France’s Francois Hollande, held their own crisis talks on Friday. European parliament president Martin Schulz, president of the European Council Donald Tusk, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also went into emergency talks.

Belgian Police Alerted to IS Fighters En Route to Europe

Reports have emerged that Belgian police have received an anti-terror alert warning that a group of Islamic State (IS) fighters recently left Syria, en route foe Europe planning to carry out attacks in Belgium and neighbouring France.

The Belgian crisis centre, which is in charge of coordinating security responses, has reported that an alert had been circulated to all police forces in the country. The centre however has noted that there are no immediate plans to raise the security level to the maximum, which would effectively indicate an imminent threat of an attack.

Newspaper DH quoted the alert from Belgium’s anti-terror cell as stating that the group “left Syria bout a week and a half ago aiming to reach Europe via Turkey and Greece by boat without passports.” The alert however did not give an exact departure date. The contents of the alert have been confirmed by a Belgian security source. DH has also reported that the fighters were armed and aimed to split into two units, one aiming to carry out attacks in Belgium while the other in France. Potential targets in Belgium included a shopping centre, a fast-food restaurant and a police station. The newspaper mentioned no specific targets in France, which is currently hosing the Euro 2016 football championships in ten stadiums across the country. The tournament will go until 10 July, with some 2.5 million spectators expected to watch the 51 games.

A source at France’s Interior Ministry has also disclosed that Belgian authorities had transmitted a note to their French counterparts, who are currently reviewing the information in the alert, adding, “we know the threat is very high…We’re reviewing all th elements (in the alert).” Speaking at a news conference, French government spokesman Stephane Le Foll disclosed “we know there are fighters who are coming back (to Europe),” adding that he could not confirm the specific alert from Belgium.

The alert comes just two days after an attack, who pledged allegiance to IS, killed a French police commander and his partner at their home outside Paris, and four days after a gunman declaring loyalty to IS massacred 49 people in a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida.

European Leaders Call for Britons to Remain in EU

Anxious European leaders have issued a number of calls to Britons to stay in the European Union (EU) rather than to risk years of economic damage, however the prime minister whose country will chair the EU from July has stated that it must prepare for a Brexit.

From German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to the heads of the EU institutions in Brussels and the man who forged the modern EU, Jacques Delors, they said that remaining in the EU would be better for Britain and Europe. While they are aware that outside pressure may be counterproductive, they all stressed that it was for voters to decide. While most European leaders have previously muted appeals to the British for fear of being counter productive, a swing towards Brexit in opinion polls a week before the 23 June referendum has sparked deep concern about the impact on the EU, effectively prompting a greater readiness to warn Britons of the harsh consequences.

Chancellor Merkel, who did her best in order to help British Prime Minister David Cameron negotiate a special status deal for Britain in February, has stated that the UK could be shut out of the prized single market on which its large financial services sector is heavily reliant. She stated that “if Britain votes to leave the EU, it will no longer be able to benefit from the advantages of the European common market,” adding that any negotiation of future terms of access would start with Britain bong on the outside. She noted, “I can’t imagine that would be any kind of advantage…But the decision is ultimately up to the Britons.”

While finance ministers from the nineteen EU countries that use the euro currency met on 16 June in Luxembourg, their chairman, Dutch minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, stating that they would not discuss any contingency plans for Brexit. While he acknowledged concern about the British vote, he stated that there was no “Plan B” to deal with it, adding that he was confident that Britons would vote to remain in the EU. That confidence however is not widely shared in Brussels, especially in the past two weeks as polls have swung towards Brexit. One senior diplomat has stated, “we are approaching the point of no return. Brexit is now a visible scenario…We are talking, loudly but not in public. But there is nothing we can do.”

Robert Fico, the outspoken prime minister of Slovakia, who met with Merkel on Thursday, has also indicated that he thinks Britain will vote to leave. He stated, “if you’re watching football and your team is three behind in the 90^th minute of the game, its unlikely that there will be a turnaround and that suddenly you will win.” His country’s six-month presidency of the EU begins in July, and would effectively give Slovakia some role in the start of negotiations with a Britain set on leaving the EU. Fico has warned that the polls shows that it is now time to be “realistic” about preparing for that eventuality.

While European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the Union Chief executive, told a questioner at an economic form in Russia that Brexit would not put “the EU in danger of death” he has cautioned against a rise of euro-scepticism across Europe. And like European Council President Donald Tusk, who chairs EU summits, Juncker warned that a Leave vote would unleash “major uncertainty.” Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, made one of his most impassioned calls yet for Britons to stay, saying, “Europe without the United Kingdom will be distinctly weaker. This is obvious. Equally obvious is that the UK outside the EU will be distinctly weaker too,” warning that Brexit would bring “seven years of limbo and uncertainty in our relations.”

Juncker’s distant predecessor from 1985 – 1995, Jacques Delors, has also issued a statement in a bid to dispel rumours that he favoured a Brexit to let other states to integrate further. The architect of the euro single currency stated, “I consider the UK’s participation in the European Union to be a positive element both for the British and for the Union.”

The Islamic State Group in Libya (2014 – Present)

On 9 June, unity government force surrounded the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s Libyan bastion Sirte, where clashes have erupted as the Unity Government attempts to oust the militant group. The jihadist group, which moved into the North African country in 2014 amidst chaos that followed the ouster of Moamer Kadhafi, has become yet another player in the lawless country, where rival authorities and militas are battling for control of territory and major oil reserves.

2014

• 19 November – The United States indicates that it is “concerned” by reports that radical extrmeists with avowed ties to IS are destabilizing eastern Libya, after having already seized vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria.   News reports emerge indicated that the eastern coastal city of Derna is emerging as an IS stronghold.
• 27 December – A car bomb explodes outside the diplomatic security building in the capital city Tripoli. The attack, which is claimed by IS, causes no casualties.

2015

• 27 January – IS claims responsibility for an attack on Tripoli’s luxury Corinthia Hotel that kills nine people.
• 15 February – IS releases a video showing the beheading of 21 Coptic Christians, all but one Egyptians, that the jihadist say they filmed in January. Egypt carries out air strikes on IS in Derna
• 20 February – IS claims responsibility for suicide car bombings in Al-Qoba, which is located near Derna. Those attacks kill 44 people, with IS stating that the attacks are to avenge losses in the air strikes.
• 19 April – A new video depicts the execution-style killing of 28 Christians originally from Ethiopia.
• 9 June – IS announces that it has captured the city of Sirte, which is located east of Tripoli.
• 12 July – The group acknowledges that it has been pushed out of Derna after weeks of fierce fighting with members of the town’s Mujahedeen Council.
• 13 November – The US bombs IS leaders in Libya for the first time and states that it has killed Abu Nabil, an Iraqi also known as Wissam Najm Abd Zayd al-Zubaydi. Libyan officials later identify him as the head of IS in Derna.

2016

• 7 January – A suicide truck bombing at a police school in Zliten, east of Tripoli, kills more than fifty people in what is the worst attack to take place in Libya since the 2011 revolution. IS claims responsibility for the attack.
• 5 February – US officials disclose that the number of jihadists has almost doubled in Libya to about 5,000.
• 19 February – A US air strike on a jihadist training camp located near Sabratha, west of Tripoli, kills about fifty people.
• 24 February – Some 200 jihadists briefly occupy the centre of Sabratha, however they are later ousted by militas.
• 30 March – The head of Libya’s United Nations-backed unity government, Fayez al-Sarraj, arrives at a naval base in Tripoli, despite the hostility of rival authorities.
• 31 May – UN special envoy Martin Kobler calls on all of Libya’s armed groups to untie against IS.
• 4 June – Unity government forces say that they have retaken a jihadist air base, Al-Gordabyia, which is located south of Sirte.
• 5 June – Sarraj rules out an international military intervention on the ground.
• 9 June – Unity government forces enter the centre of Sirte where clashes continue with IS.