MS Risk Blog

Growing Concerns as IS Seen Making Inroads into Kenya

Recent arrests have indicated that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s presence in East Africa is growing, with officials indicated that they are recruiting young Kenyans for jihad abroad and raising fears that some of them will return to threaten the country, which has already been affected by Somali-based al-Qaeda aligned al-Shabaab.

Kenyan intelligence agencies estimate that around one hundred men and women may have gone to join IS in Libya and Syria. This has triggered concerns that some may chose to come back in order to stage attacks on Kenyan and foreign targets in a country that has already been the victim of regular, deadly terrorism. According to Rashid Abid, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank, which is based in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, “there is now a real threat that Kenya faces from IS and the danger will continue to increase.”

The first al-Qaeda attack in Kenya was the 1998 US embassy bombing and the most recent large attack was a university massacre in Garissa in 2015. The IS threat however is new and as yet ill defined. In March, four men appeared in court accused of seeking to travel to Libya in order to join IS. Then in early May, Kenyan police announced the arrest of a medical student, his wife and her friend. All three have been accused of recruiting for IS and plotting an anthrax attack. At the time, two other medical students were said to be on the run. Kenyan police chief Joseph Boinnet described a countrywide “terror network” linked to IS and led by Mohamed Abdi Ali, a medical intern at a regional hospital, “planning large-scale attacks” including one to “unleash a biological attack…using anthrax.” Three weeks later, police announced the arrest of two more members of “the ISIS (another acronym for IS) network that is seeking to establish itself in Kenya in order to conduct terror attacks against innocent Kenyans.” Police indicated that they had found “materials terrorists typically use in the making of IEDs” – homemade bombs – as well as “bows and poisoned arrows.”

While some experts have dismissed the suggestion of an imminent large-scale attack in Kenya, they have noted that the threat of IS radicalization, recruitment and return in the East African nation is genuine, with one foreign law enforcement official, who has examined the anthrax allegation, disclosing that “we cant see either the intent to carry out such an attack nor any real planning of it…But there is something in it: there is IS here, mainly involved in recruitment and facilitation.”   Other officials also note that the recent arrests show that radicalization continues to be an issue affecting the entire country. While officials note that recruitment into Somali-based al-Shabaab remains the primary danger, there are increasing credible reports that other groups, such as IS, are gaining ground.

For now, Kenyan authorities have struggled to manage the return of their nationals from Somalia, where hundreds of Kenyans make up the bulk of al-Shabaab’s foreign fighters. In the future, experts have noted that that they will also likely have to deal with returning IS extremists as well as self-radicalized “lone wolf” attackers who have been inspired by the group’s ideology and online propaganda.

Rio de Janeiro Declares Financial Emergency Ahead of Olympics

06The governor of Rio de Janeiro has declared a state of financial emergency ahead of the Olympics, which are set to begin in August, stating that emergency measures are needed in order to avoid “a total collapse in public security, health, education, transport and environmental management.”

The acting governor, Francisco Dornelles, has classified the situation in the Official Gazette as a “financial calamity” that could prevent “the fulfilment of the obligations as a result of the Olympic and Paralympic Games Rio 2016.” This however is in part a political tactics as by declaring a state of financial emergency, the government is able to borrow funds without approval from the state legislature. The interim president, Michel Temer, has reportedly already agreed to disburse federal funds to cover Rio’s shortfall and to ensure that the Olympics go ahead as planned.

The impact however remains to be seen. Most of the Olympic projects are funded by private companies or Rio City, which is in a stronger financial position, as opposed to Rio state. With the exception of the velodrome, the main sporting venues are either already completed or are on schedule for completion. However Rio State is responsible for the MetroRio extension, which is already very late and which is now due for completion just days before the start of the Games, when it will be needed to alleviate the usually dire traffic to Bara de Tijuca, the site of the athletes village and Olympic park. Rio State was also supposed to clean up the sewage and other pollution in Guanabara Bay, which will stage the yachting events. However officials have stated that this is now impossible due to a lack of funds, which effectively means that Olympic sailors may have to dodge plastic bags, human excrement and other waste. Also of great concern for the 500,000 visitors who are expected for th Games is the cut in the public security budget, which has added to the problems faced by the favela “pacification” programme and contributed to a resurgence in violent crime. I also comes amidst warnings that terrorists could target the event.

City Mayor Eduardo Paes however has insisted that the state of emergency would in no way impede Rio’s ability to meet its Olympic commitments and stage an “exceptional Games.” He stressed that the bulk of the bill for the event was being paid by the municipality and not the state, adding, “the city of Rio is in good shape financially…Even in a time of crisis, we keep pushing. We inaugurate things almost every week.”

The plea for additional funds, which comes 49 days before the official start of the games, is an embarrassment for the host of South America’s first Games and adds to a long list of issues, which include the impeachment of the president, the deepest recession in decades, the biggest corruption scandal in memory, the Zika virus epidemic and a wave of strikes and occupations of government buildings.

Analysts have reported that Brazil’s economy this year is expected to shrink by about 4%. This is due to weak commodity prices, low demand from China, political paralysis and the Lava Jato (Car Wash) corruption investigation, which forced the suspension of many construction contracts and which led to the arrest of dozens of senior executives. Rio de Janeiro has particularly been hard hit because it is the headquarters of the state-run oil company Petrobas, which is at the centre of the investigation.   Faced by falling tax revenues, the state government has slashed health, police and education budgets. Teachers and doctors have faced lengthy delays in receiving their salaries, which has prompted strikes and occupations of schools and hospitals.

EU Extends Sanctions on Russia over 2014 Crimea Annexation

The European Union (EU) has extended for another year the sanctions, which it imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea in March 2014.

In mid-June, the 28 EU member states renewed a ban on economic ties with Crimean businesses, which include a block on EU tourism and investment in the Black Sea peninsula. Other EU sanctions target top Russian officials over the Ukraine insurgency.

The annexation, which occurred after pro-Russian forces seized Ukrainian bases in Crimea and then held a referendum, drew international condemnation. While Crimea has a Russian-speaking majority, the referendum was organized by the new authorities and was deemed illegal by the West. After the Crimea annexation, pro-Russian insurgents seized power in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine in April 2014. The EU, United States and some other countries then ratcheted up their sanctions against Russia.

After the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia retained control of the important Black Sea naval base in Sevastopol. However Ukraine had control of the rest of Crimea until the 2014 crisis.

Assessing Libya’s Unity Government: Three Months In

On 30 March 2016, Libya’s prime minister-designate Fayez al-Sarraj sailed into the capital Tripoli under naval escort and set up the headquarters of his country’s unity government. Now after three months in office, many are asking how has the newly formed Government of National Accord (GNA) fared in tackling the North African country’s ongoing crisis and what more needs to be done to stabilize Libya.

The GNA, which is the result of a UN-brokered power-sharing deal that was reached in December 2015, continues to face a fearsome set of economic, political and military challenges. While its allied militias have made major advances against the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in its stronghold of Sirte, success there would just be the start. The country’s economy, which was hard-hit in the wake of the 2011 uprising, continues to struggle amidst power cuts and a cash crisis at the country’s banks. Furthermore, a rival government based in the eastern city of Tobruk has refused to cede power until the country’s elected parliament passes a repeatedly delayed vote of confidence. Meanwhile neither administration can rein in militias that have fought for control of the country since the 2011 fall of former dictator Moamer Kadhafi.

So what has the GNA achieved?

Within days of its arrival in Tripoli, Sarraj’s government had won the loyalty of the main economic institutions, cities and armed groups based in western Libya. Without waiting for a vote of confidence from Tobruk, the GNA took control of key government ministries in Tripoli, with Sarraj managing to secure a rapprochement between rival central banks and national oil companies. According to analysts, the prime minister-designate has also met with figures from both sides of the country and has continued to stress the need for unity. However the GNA’s biggest achievement to date has been its success in commanding an assault on IS in Sirte, which is located 450 kilometres (280 miles) east of the capital Tripoli. Since 12 May, pro-government forces have cleared IS from 280 kilometres (175 miles) of coastline and surrounded the jihadists inside the city.

GNA’s failures

In political terms, the GNA’s main challenge continues to be securing a rapprochement with the east. Sources however have disclosed that Easterners are wary of the GNA’s reliance on militias. Furthermore, kidnappings for ransom are on the rise, as are the prices of basic goods. Power cuts are common, long and unpredictable and they sometimes affect the water supplies. Furthermore, foreign airlines are avoiding the country and Libyans have few options to fly out. Also, despite a string of foreign delegations, no foreign embassy is currently present in the capital.

What after IS? 

In order to govern effectively, Sarraj will need a vote of confidence from the House of Representatives in Tobruk. The continued fight against IS delays any rapprochement between the East and the West, and is inevitable unless a political solution is reached.

Sahara Mining Services Limited and MS Risk Limited Announce Joint Venture for Services to the Extractive Sector in West Africa

Sahara Mining Services Limited and MS Risk Limited 

Announce Joint Venture for Services to the Extractive Sector in West Africa 

London, UK: MS Risk, a leading security and crisis response company serving the Lloyd’s of London specialty risk market, has announced it has last month signed a joint venture agreement with West African based Sahara Mining Services Limited to deliver security management and consultancy services to the extractive sector across the Sahel region of Africa. The agreement formalises pre-existing relationships that both businesses utilise. MS Risk has been performing tasks for clients across the turbulent Sahel region of West Africa for several years delivering security solutions to exploration, mining and energy clients throughout countries such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Cote d’Ivoire. Sahara has been operating in the exploration and mining sector across West Africa since 1996 and offers MS Risk an extensive logistical base to enhance and support existing projects. Sahara is also able to offer opportunities for the JV with its growing client base.

Highlights:

• MS Risk has deployed experienced expatriate consultants into the region permanently, using the Sahara logistics network for complete support centred from Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. MS Risk suppliers and key local service providers will benefit from increased mentoring as part of the agreement. Having these qualified and experienced consultants in theatre will dramatically improve response times to serious incidents, enhance the operational planning processes for events such as evacuations and other dynamic security tasks, and mitigate all risks through informed local insight and preventative procedures.

• A central feature to the new and enhanced joint service is the introduction of the MS Risk Security Alert Database which will be used externally for the first time to provide up-to-date alerts to client subscribers on security conditions in their localities to aid planning and monitoring of security atmospherics. Developed over the previous six years it contains the details of some 8,700 known security incidents in the region involving terrorism, banditry, kidnapping and civil disorder threat events. It has been painstakingly compiled by the analyst team at MS Risk. The industry links of Sahara along with their internal GIS mapping and GPS tracking capabilities has propelled the benefits even further for commercial client advantage.

About Sahara Mining Services: A West African based group, Sahara Mining Services has been providing specialist exploration and mining services internationally since 1996. It offers a range of mining services aimed at providing local support at an international standard. It maintains permanent bases in Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso and Ghana and has field offices across a half dozen countries. Services include Exploration, Drilling (auger), Geotechnical, Surveying, Hydrogeology, Telematics, Training, Mining Consulting, and Logistics Support. Further contact: Beau Nicholls, CEO, beau@saharaminingservices.com , www.saharaminingservices.com.

About MS Risk Limited: domiciled in Douglas, the Isle of Man, the company is retained as a crisis responder and security adviser by leading insurers at Lloyd’s of London. MS Risk’s consultants have been working in West Africa supporting the extractive sector for 20 years. The company provides Security Consulting, Project Management, Advisory, Due Diligence, Investigations, Training and Crisis Response Services. This is done directly for corporates and also through specialty risk insurance. This marks the second planned expansion in this calendar year after it established a permanent office in Mexico City in Q1 to support the growth of sales and assist on-going projects in Latin America. Further contact: Liam Morrissey, CEO, liam.morrissey@msrisk.com, www.msrisk.com.