MS Risk Blog

France Attacked Again

On Thursday 14 July, Bastille Day in France, at least 84 people, including several children, were killed and dozens more hurt after a man drove a lorry into crowds who had gathered to celebrate along the famous Promenade Des Anglais in the French seaside city. Some 202 people were injured in the attack, with 52 in critical condition, of whom 25 are on life support.

Attacker Identified

The driver of the lorry has since been identified as Tunisian Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, 31. French prosecutors have disclosed that Lahouaiej-Bouhlel had driven the 19-tonne lorry 2 kilometres (1.2 miles) along the Promenade des Anglais and fired at police with a 7.65 mm calibre automatic pistol when the vehicle was close to the Negreco hotel. He continued for another 300 m, where his vehicle was stopped near the Palais de la Mediterranee hotel, where he was shot dead by police.   Weapons found inside the lorry were replicas or fake and included an ammunition magazine, a fake pistol, replica Kalashnikov and M16 rifles, and a dummy grenade. There was also a bicycle, empty pallets, documents and a mobile phone. The attack occurred at about 22:45 local time (20:45 GMT).

According to French Prosecutor Francois Molins, a search of Lahouaiej-Bouhlel’s Nice home has been carried out and a number of items have been seized. Lahouaiej-Bouhlel, a chauffer and delivery man, had three children but had separated from his wife, who was taken into police custody on Friday. The prosecutor added that while he was known to the police as a petty criminal, he was “totally unknown to intelligence services…and was never flagged for signs of radicalization.”

While Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve stated that he could not confirm links to jihadism, Prime Minister Manuel Valls later told France 2 television that Lahouaiej-Bouhlel was a “terrorist without doubt linked to radical Islamism in one way or another.”

Tunisian security sources have disclosed that Lahouaiej-Bouhlel came from the Tunisian town of Msaken, adding that he visited the North African country frequently, the last time being eight months ago. Justice Minister Jean-Jacques Urvoas has disclosed that the suspect had been given a suspended sentence earlier this year following a confrontation with another driver, adding that this was his only conviction.

Since Friday, five people believed to be linked to Lahouaiej-Bouhlel have been taken into police custody. According to the Paris prosecutor’s office, three arrests were made on Saturday and two on Friday, including Lahouaiej-Bouhlel’s estranged wife.

IS Claims Responsibility

On 16 July, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group claimed reasonability for the attack in Nice. The jihadist-linked Amaq news agency quoted an IS security source as stating that one of its “soldiers” carried out the atrocity “in response to calls to target nations of coalition states that are fighting (IS).”

President Francois Hollande, who arrived in Nice on Friday, stated that Thursday’s attack was of “an undeniable terrorist nature,” warning that the battle against terrorism would be long, as France faced an enemy “that will continue to attack those people and those countries that count liberty as an essential value.” President Hollande further disclosed that the attack was carried out “to satisfy the cruelty of an individual or possibly a group” and that many of the victims were foreigners and young children, adding “we will overcome the suffering because we are a united France.

A state of emergency, which has been in place since the November 2015 Paris attacks, has been extended by three months. It was due to end at the end of this month. This means that police and soldiers will continue to be on the streets, guarding key buildings. It also means that scanners and metal arches will be placed at some shops and regular bag searches will be carried out. Gendarme reserves have been called up in support. There are already tighter checks at France’s borders.

France however is under scrutiny that a terrorist attack has occurred while the country was under an emergency state. Security services have denied that they relaxed after the Euro 2016 football tournament, which concluded on 10 July, and there has been praise for the relentless job that they have done in recent months and for the speed of their reaction during the attack in Nice. While intelligence gathering has improved, predicting and preventing every attack is impossible, with some questioning whether even a state of emergency is an effective level of response. In the wake of the attack in Nice, French authorities have warned that they are going to have to live with terrorism.

Venezuelans Cross into Colombia Due to Food Shortages

Tens of thousands of Venezuelans have crossed to neighbouring Colombia to buy basic goods amid shortages during a brief opening of the border. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro authorized a 12 hour opening of the bridge that connects Tachira, Venezuela, and Cucuta, Colombia. According to the director of the Colombian border authority, an estimated 35.000 Venezuelans arrived in Cucuta. The border was closed in August 2015 as a part of a crime crackdown. President Nicolas Maduro ordered the border closure because the region had been infiltrated by Colombian paramilitaries and gangs.

Venezuelans who want to cross into Colombia in states where the border has been closed need a special permit to do so. But as the scarcity of food gets worse in Venezuela, many have crossed the porous border illegally. On July 6, about 500 Venezuelan women in search of food and medicine broke through border controls separating the western state of Tachira from Cucuta. After buying food and other goods which are scarce in Venezuela, they again gathered at the the border post asking the Colombian guards to let them pass. Goods such as rice, sugar, flour, and oil are hard to come by in Venezuela due to a deep economic crisis.

The ministers of defense from Colombia and Venezuela met earlier this months to discuss potentially reopening border gates on the 2.000 kilometres separating the two countries. Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and his Foreign Minister Maria Angela Holguin also visited Cucuta last week to push for a reopening.

Demonstrators demanding food have clashed with rioting police in several Venezuelan cities in recent weeks amid demonstrations and looting that have turned deadly. Last month, Venezuelan security forces fired teargas at protesters chanting “We want food!” near the presidential palace in Caracas. National Guard and police officers blocked a road near the Miraflores palace in downtown Caracas, after scores of angry Venezuelans began trying to approach the building.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his cabinet blame the recession on an “economic war” they say is being waged against them by businessmen in league with the opposition. The Venezuelan opposition, however, says the real cause of the crisis is the state-led system defended by late leftist leader Hugo Chavez. After winning control of the legislature in January, the opposition launched its efforts to remove the president, including a bid for a recall referendum.

Islamic State has Lost Territory in Iraq and Syria This Year

According to a defense consultancy, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has lost 12% of the territory it controlled in Iraq and Syria in the first half of this year.

IHS has found that the “caliphate,” which was proclaimed by IS two years ago, has shrunk to 68,300 sq km (26,370 sq miles). According to IHS, in January 2015, just six months after IS declared the creation of a caliphate, the terror group controlled some 90,800 sq km of Iraq and Syria, adding that by December, that had shrunk by 12,800 sq km to 78,000 sq km, a net loss of 14%. According to IHS, since then IS has lost a further 9,700 sq km and now controls 68,300 sq km, which is roughly the size of the Republic of Ireland or the US state of West Virginia.

In Syria, IS has come under pressure from Syrian government forces, who are backed by Russia and Iran, and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters who are supported by a US-led multinational collation.   In February, the SDF captured the eastern town of Shaddadi, which was a major hub for IS, while in March, the ancient town of Palmyra was retaken by government forces. In neighbouring Iraq, troops and allied militiamen are preparing a long-awaited offensive to retake the northern city of Mosul, which is IS’s last remaining urban stronghold there.

IHS has reported that the losses of land in Iraq and Syria had led IS to set up its attacks on civilian targets elsewhere in the Middle East and in Europe, noting that such attacks are likely to intensify. Last week, almost 300 people died in an IS suicide bombing in Baghdad, Iraq. The attck came just days after the Iraqi government declared that it had retaken full control of the city of Fallujah, which is located just west to the capital.

Chilcot Report: Taking a Look at the Findings

Earlier this month, Sir John Chilcot outlined his findings on the UK’s involvement in the 2003 Iraq War and the lessons to be learned from it.

The newly released report spans almost a decade of UK government policy decisions that occurred between 2001 and 2009. It covers the background to the decision to go to war, whether troops were properly prepared, how the conflict was conducted and what planning there was for its aftermath.

The main points of the report are the following

Military Action 

• The UK chose to joint the invasion of Iraq before all peaceful options for disarmament had been exhausted. At the time, military action was not a last resort.
• The report states that military action might have been necessary later, however in March 2003, there was no imminent threat from the then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, noting that the strategy of containment could have been adapted and continued for some time and that the majority of the United Nations Security Council supported continuing UN inspections and monitoring.
• On 28 July 2002, then Prime Minister Tony Blair assured US President George W. Bush that he would be with him “whatever.” However in the letter, he pointed out that a US coalition for military action would need: Progress on the Middle East peace process, UN authority and a shift in public opinion in the UK, Europe and amongst Arab leaders.

Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

• Judgements about the severity of the threat posed by Iraq’s WMD’s were presented with a certainty that was not justified.
• Intelligence had “not established beyond doubt” that Saddam Hussein had continued to produce chemical and biological weapons.
• The Joint Intelligence Committee disclosed that Iraq had “continued to produce chemical and biological agents” and that there had ben “recent production.” It added that Iraq had the means to deliver chemical and biological weapons, however it did not state that Iraq had continued to produce weapons.
• Policy on the Iraq invasion was made on the basis of flawed intelligence assessment. The report notes that it was not challenged and should have been.

The Legal Case

• The report states that the circumstances in which it was decided that there was a legal basis for UK military action were “far from satisfactory.”
• While the invasion began on 20 March 2003, it was not until 13 March that then Attorney General Lord Goldsmith advise there was, on balance, a secure legal basis for military action. Furthermore, apart from No 10’s response to his letter on 14 March, there was no formal record made of that decision and the precise grounds on which it was made remain unclear.
• The UK’s actions undermined the authority of the United Nations Security Council: The UN’s Charter puts responsibility for the maintenance of peace and security in the Security Council. The UK government was claiming to act on behalf of the international community “to uphold the authority of the Security Council,” however it knew that it did not have a majority supporting its actions.
• In Cabinet, there was little questioning of Lord Goldsmith about his advice and no substantive discussion of the legal issues recorded.

Military Preparedness

• The report notes that there was “little time” to properly prepare three military bridges for deployment in Iraq, noting that the risks were neither “properly identified nor fully exposed” to ministers, which effectively resulted in “equipment shortfalls.”
• Between 2003 and 2009, UK forces in Iraq faced gaps in some key capability areas, which included armoured vehicles, reconnaissance and intelligence assets and helicopter support.
• It was not sufficiently clear which person in the department within the Ministry of Defense had responsibility for identifying and articulating such gaps.
• The report notes that delays in providing adequate medium weight protected patrol vehicles and the failure to meet the needs of UK forces for reconnaissance and intelligence equipment and helicopters should not have been tolerated.

Iraq’s Aftermath

• Despite explicit warnings, the consequences of the invasion were underestimated, with the report noting that the planning and preparations for Iraq after Saddam Hussein were “wholly inadequate.”
• The government failed to achieve the stated objective, which it had set itself in Iraq. More than 200 British citizens died as a result of the conflict. Iraqi people also suffered greatly. By July 2009, at least 150,000 Iraqis had died, probably more, and more than one million were displaced. 

Lessons Learned

• The report found that Mr Blair overestimated his ability to influence US decisions on Iraq, adding that the UK’s relationship with the US does not require unconditional support.
• It stated that ministerial discussion, which encourages frank and informed debate and challenge, is important. As is ensuring civilian and military arms of government of being properly equipped.
• In future, all aspects of any intervention need to be calculated, debated and challenged with rigour. Decisions need to be fully implemented.

CIA Chief Warns IS ‘Formidable’ Despite Losses

According to CIA Director John Brennan, the efforts of the US-led coalition that is fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS) group have failed to reduce its ability to carry out militant attacks.

Speaking to the Senate intelligence committee, in an update on the threat from extremists, Mr Brennan told the hearing that the group remains “formidable” despite territorial losses. He stated, “unfortunately, despite all our progress against ISIL (Islamic State) on the battlefield and in the financial realm, our efforts have not reduced the group’s terrorism capability and global reach.” He indicated that he estimates that IS now has more fighters than al-Qaeda when that militant group was at its strongest, adding that there are as many as 22,000 IS fighters operating in Iraq and neighbouring Syria. He also indicated that the CIA is particularly concerned about the growth of Libya as an IS base.

While Mr Brennan indicated that the US-led coalition had made progress against IS, the group has “a large cadre of Western fighter who could potentially serve as operatives for attacks in the West,” warning that “to compensate for territorial losses, ISIL will probably rely more on guerrilla tactics, including high-profile attacks outside territory it holds.”

Mr Brennan’s appearance comes just days after the attack on a gay nightclub in Florida. The gunman, Omar Mateen, had pledged allegiance to IS, however Mr Brennan told the hearing that the CIA had not uncovered any direct link between Mateen and foreign militant groups.