CIA Chief Warns IS ‘Formidable’ Despite Losses

According to CIA Director John Brennan, the efforts of the US-led coalition that is fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS) group have failed to reduce its ability to carry out militant attacks.

Speaking to the Senate intelligence committee, in an update on the threat from extremists, Mr Brennan told the hearing that the group remains “formidable” despite territorial losses. He stated, “unfortunately, despite all our progress against ISIL (Islamic State) on the battlefield and in the financial realm, our efforts have not reduced the group’s terrorism capability and global reach.” He indicated that he estimates that IS now has more fighters than al-Qaeda when that militant group was at its strongest, adding that there are as many as 22,000 IS fighters operating in Iraq and neighbouring Syria. He also indicated that the CIA is particularly concerned about the growth of Libya as an IS base.

While Mr Brennan indicated that the US-led coalition had made progress against IS, the group has “a large cadre of Western fighter who could potentially serve as operatives for attacks in the West,” warning that “to compensate for territorial losses, ISIL will probably rely more on guerrilla tactics, including high-profile attacks outside territory it holds.”

Mr Brennan’s appearance comes just days after the attack on a gay nightclub in Florida. The gunman, Omar Mateen, had pledged allegiance to IS, however Mr Brennan told the hearing that the CIA had not uncovered any direct link between Mateen and foreign militant groups.

US Officials Warn No Links Between Boko Haram and IS

US officials indicated in early June that they see no evidence that Nigerian-based militant group Boko Haram has received significant operational support or financing from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, more than a year after Boko Haram pledged allegiance to it.

The assessment, which is detailed by multiple US officials, suggests that Bok Haram’s loyalty pledge has so far mostly been a branding exercise designed to boost its international jihadi credentials as well as to attract recruits and appeal to the IS leadership for assistance. The US view of Boko Haram as a locally-focused, homegrown insurgency, is likely to keep the group more to the margins of the US fight against IS in Africa. The US military’s attention is largely centred on Libya, which is home to IS’ strongest affiliate outside the Middle East and where the US has carried out air strikes. According to officials, no such direct US intervention is currently being contemplated against Boko Haram. One US official has disclosed that “if there is no meaningful connection between ISIL (IS) and Boko – and we haven’t found one so far – then there are no grounds for US military involvement in West Africa other than assistance and training,” adding, “this is an African fight, and we can assist them, but its their fight.”

In public comments, senior US officials have disclosed that they are closely watching for any increased threat to Americans from Boko Haram and any confirmation of media reports of deepening ties with IS.

The Iraqi Security Failure

On the 4^th of July 2016, once again Baghdad was severely hit by one of the major bombing in the history of terrorism and the deadliest single attack in the war-weary country in years. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack in response to the battlefield setbacks, including the recent loss of the western city of Falluja. The militants have stepped up their attacks on civilians and this is the latest in a string of assaults during Ramadan, a period of fasting and prayer for Muslims; but also a time when jihadists launch operations against those they regard as their enemies.

Iraqi officials have raised the figure for the number of people killed in Sunday’s suicide bombing in Baghdad; the health ministry has reported 281 killed in the attack, which targeted a shopping complex in the mainly Shia Muslim Karrada district. In Sunday’s bombing, an explosives-laden lorry blew up outside a crowded, three-storey shopping centre where people were enjoying a night out after breaking their daily fast for the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. The bombing has sparked widespread anger among Iraqis, some of whom have accused the government of failing to protect them. When Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited the bombing site, people threw stones and shoes at his convoy and called him a “thief”. In the following days the Prime Minister dismissed key officials, including the country’s intelligence chief and directors of six state-owned banks, as he is trying to push through government reforms in the face of growing popular protests.

One protester hacked an official Iraqi government website Sunday, causing the address to link to a Blogspot page that accused the government of using fake bomb detectors. The official government website stayed down for several hours. The hacker changed the homepage of the government website to an image of a bloody child and a drawing of a fake bomb detector with the ISIS symbol on it. Concerns have been raised for years about fake, non-functional, hand-held bomb detectors being sold to and used by Iraq’s government at security checkpoints. Many online echoed the hacker’s opinion, saying the deadly bombing could have been prevented. Shortly after the hack, the prime minister’s office issued a press release saying that Iraqi security agencies would “withdraw manually held devices at checkpoints” and reopen a previous investigation into whether or not many bomb detectors are in fact functional. The fake bomb detectors, based on cheap devices for finding golf balls, were sold in large numbers to Iraq by fraudsters. The fake detectors were still being used at checkpoints in Iraq until few days ago. The man behind the ADE 651, the fake bob detectors, is James McCormick. In 2013 he was sentenced to 10 years in prison for his role in the ruse. The former policeman, of Langport, Somerset, who was found guilty of three fraud offences at the Old Bailey, is thought to have made more than £50m from selling three models based on a novelty £13 golf ball finder, to Iraq and other countries.

The type of explosive used for the attack remains classified. A forensic examination of the site has not yet publicly unveiled any data, however in the November 2015 attacks in Paris, TATP (triacetone triperoxide) was used as the primary explosive in a number of bombs and suicide belts during the hours-long siege. TATP was again used in the 2005 London bombings that killed 56 and was also confiscated from Najibullah Zazi in his failed plot to attack the New York City subway system in 2009. Moreover there is an ongoing investigation on the primary ingredient in the devices detonated during the bombings at Brussels airport and a metro station 2016. The attack could become the latest example of the chemical’s use in terrorist strikes across Europe. Acetone peroxide is an organic peroxide formed by the oxidation of acetone to yield a mixture of linear monomer and cyclic dimer, trimer, and tetramer forms. The trimer is known as triacetone triperoxide (TATP) or tri-cyclic acetone peroxide (TCAP) a highly unstable explosive. Acetone peroxide coalesces into a white crystalline powder with a distinctive bleach-like odor and can detonate when exposed to exothermic reactions, friction, or shock. As a non-nitrogenous explosive, TATP has historically been more difficult to detect, and it has been implicated as the explosive used in terrorist attacks. TATP is easy to make and hard to detect, but is also incredibly unstable. In fact, all it takes is a firm tap to explode TATP with a force that’s about 80% as strong as TNT. Regardless of the nature of compound the entrusted ADE 651 would have always failed to detect any threats or hazardous materials.

The ISIS success is primarily due to the failure of the security services. In an embarrassing admission, the government has had to order security personnel to stop using bogus bomb detectors that, for years, have been widely known to be useless and admitting the critical failure of the country’s security services.

The Controversy over Calais’s Migrant Camp

8 July, 2016

Over 3000 migrants currently live in a make-shift camp near the French town of Calais. That camp and others across northern France have long been a source of tension between the French and UK Governments. Since the Sangatte Protocol came into effect in 1993, France and the UK have conducted Eurotunnel immigration checks at the point of origin instead of at the destination. In 2000, the immigration agreement was expanded to Belgium, allowing checkpoints to be established for the Eurostar and specific English Channel ferry crossings. In recent years, the United Kingdom has invested heavily in the northern France checkpoints due to migrants hiding in commercial trucks crossing the border and attempting to walk through the Eurotunnel. In 2014, the UK Government announced £12m over three years for increased security at Calais. This was followed by a further UK-France agreement in August 2015 to create a command-and-control centre and deploy hundreds more police officers.

The United Kingdom’s referendum on EU membership has placed new strains on the series of agreements with France. Before the vote, in May 2016, France’s Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron had warned that a victory for the leave campaign would threaten the immigration agreements between the 2 countries. This statement was later contradicted by French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayraul. After the referendum occurred, he promised that there would be no sudden reversal of the current policy. However, many local politicians in northern France, specifically Calais Mayor Natacha Bouchart, have argued that the current approach is no longer sustainable. There appears to be a growing movement of people along France’s north coast who believe the migrant camps should be officially moved to the UK. In a significant recent development, French presidential candidate Alain Juppé has been campaigning on an end to the treaty. Xavier Bertrand, president of the Hauts-de-France region, had argued that such a position could gain considerable support from centrist and centre-right voters.

It is unlikely that any change to the UK-France border agreements will happen in the short-term. France’s governing Socialist Party remains committed to the policy. But over the longer term, France’s 2017 Presidential elections are a reminder that this controversy is far from over.

Peruvian president-elect, who takes up office this month is likely to face an uphill battle to enact his political agenda, with a bitterly divided parliament

At the end of July, the 77 year old president-elect Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (head of the centre-right Peruvians for Change Party) will be sworn into office in Peru’s capital, Lima. The country is still recovering from the political polarisation that marked the presidential election and the new government face an uphill challenge as they take power with a marginal representation in Congress and strong opposition from both fellow right-wing parties and the left-wing opposition.

The political polarisation during the bitterly fought campaign was partly fuelled by Keiko Fujimori’s presence, who was leading in the polls and won the first round vote. Keiko is a controversial political presence in Peru, both loved and hated and inextricably linked to the legacy of her father, former-president Alberto Fujimori, who left office in the 1990s and was sentence to prison charged with corruption and human rights abuses during his time in office.

In this context, the eventual election of the uncharismatic, fiscally conservative technocrat Kuczynski, was at heart an anti-Fujimori vote. Members of the left and right wing formed a rare united front to back the president-elect in the second round vote and block Fujimori from becoming president. However, the extremely tight race saw the president-elect win by minuscule margins with the final count declaring his presidency with 40,000 additional votes.

The effects of such a tight margin? Kaczynski is likely to face constant blockages from all sides as he tries to enact his campaign pledges and develop a strong political agenda.

A challenging agenda ahead

Kuczynski’s government will face significant battles in Congress where Fujimori’s Party (Fuerza Popular) hold the majority of the 130 parliamentary seats. However, opposition from fellow-right wing Fuerza Popular is not the only challenge. Leader of the left-wing Frente Amplio, Verónika Mendoza, only supported the president-elect in the second round vote to keep Fujimori from office and has already declared that she will not form a government with the president’s party. Amid the current political uncertainty as to how the minority government will rule, there has been much media speculation around the Executive Committee in Congress and Fujimori’s future position.

The challenges for Kuczynski will be apparent from day 1, as the president attempts to focus on his two key campaign topics: the economy and citizen security. He will focus on increasing economic investment in the country, particularly in the controversial extractives sector and has campaigned to decrease regulation to lessen the burden for investors, though arguably also lessening the guarantees for those protecting environmental, social and cultural rights.

His vision of citizen security focuses on increasing the number of police and their capacity to fight organised crime by giving them more power. This, in a region that is experiencing the effects of the militarisation of police in the fight against organised crime and the subsequent abuses of power, has been viewed as problematic by many, while his supporters highlight the need for a Mano Dura (heavy hand) to protect citizens.

Throughout the election campaign, the role of narco-trafficking was bizarrely rarely mentioned considering Peru is facing an uptick in coca production. Moreover, with rising domestic consumption South America is now a key target for widespread narco-trafficking operations. However, it is likely that the president-elect will incorporate this into his “citizen security” plan, to enhance confidence in the police and develop intelligence capabilities to destroy crops and trafficking operations, particularly in key commercial hotspots.

Security Programmes – more snooping?

The new president has yet to outline his plan to increase prison capacity but has criticised Fujimori’s claims to build prisons above 4000 metres, claiming such measures were insufficient to address the roots of the problem around violent crime.

Kuczynski has voiced his support for former-Colombian president Álvaro Uribe’s security strategies during his time in office. Uribe focused on regionalising security and intelligence capabilities to oversee activities across the country. Peru’s president-elect has outlined his plans to develop relations with local villagers and regional authorities to create security watch dogs to “police” at a local level. What is not clear is whether these types of security programmes will necessitate special presidential powers to effectively allow more snooping. Such special powers are likely to be contested by other groups in parliament who will see this as a breach of citizen rights.

The president-elect’s security programmes include reforms to the National Intelligence Directorate, who are responsible for developing strategic information and running the National Intelligence System, overseeing military and police intelligence. This underlines that there will be transfer of inception communication with the national police forces who are responsible for fighting organised crime. In the same way it’s thought that the Financial Intelligence Unit will increase its powers and open investigations against those people and companies involved in crime and corruption.

What does this mean? The new president is likely to push for increased “snooping” to keep organised criminals at bay, whether this is an effective method or not is highly disputed. Whatever the outcome, he is unlikely to pass such special guarantees without a fight in parliament. For investors, due diligence into local partners will be critical to ensure that companies are compliant with local, state, federal and international regulations.

Who investigates who?

Another polemical discussion taking place is over which party will oversee the Fiscal Commission, responsible for carrying out anti-corruption and fraud investigations against members of parliament and government. This body recently required notoriety following its investigation into the role of drug-trafficking within Peruvian political elites. Members of Fujimora’s Fuerza Popular claim that they should lead the Commission as they have the majority in parliament. However, considering their party is currently under investigation on the grounds of illicit financing for Fujimori’s election campaign in 2011, many members of parliament are suspect about their independence to lead such a body.

Eyes on the road ahead

The political balancing act that Peru is now facing means that in the medium and long term the president elect will have to try and create a cross-party consensus on key issues to develop his political agenda. While at their heart the PPK and the Fuerza Popular, both conservative parties, have relatively similar policy angles when it comes to security and the economy, there are likely to be constant tensions between the majority Fujimoristas and the governing party. This will threaten Kuczynski’s ability to consolidate his political project and will seriously hamper his ability to follow through on his election promises.

While he has not finalised his government, it looks like the new president will bring together a group of experts and technocrats, highlighting that he will pick from those who were not part of his campaign. What is still unknown is whether the Peruvian Congress will pass the rights for the president to carry out reforms in the security and economic sector in the short term.

While investors might greet his plans to cut the red tape and deregulate some key industries to increase competition and investment, he is likely to face significant opposition from some quarters on environmental and social grounds. Investors looking at Peru, particularly in the extractives sector, should pay close attention to the president’s first three months in office to gage how he is likely to move ahead on this campaign pledge. Peru has faced significant challenges in its extractives sector and investors must be aware of the propensity for social activism if they do not develop cohesive operating plans with the local community.

Finally investors should be aware of the links between political elites at both a local, state and federal level and narcotrafficking activities and companies are advised to carry out due diligence to ensure they are aware of the risks within future operating environments.