MS Risk Blog

Number of Refugees Worldwide Hits New Record

The United Nations reported on 20 June that the number of refugees and others fleeing their homes worldwide has hit a new record, spiking to 65.3 million people by the end of 2015.

According to the latest figures released by the UN, the number of people displaced globally rose by 5.8 million through 2015. The UN has indicated that counting Earth’s population at 7.349 billion, one out of every 113 people on the planet is now either internally displaced or a refugee. The agency has disclosed that they now number more than the populations of Britain or France, adding that it is “a level of risk for which UNHCR knows no precedent.”

While displacement figures have been rising since the mid 1990s, the rate of increase has jumped since the outbreak of Syria’s civil war in 2011. Of the planet’s 65.3 million displaced, 40.8 million remain within their own country while 21.3 million have fled across the borders and are now refuges. Palestinians are the largest group of refugees at more than five million. This includes those who fled at the creation of Israel in 1948 and their descendants. Syria is next on the list, with 4.9 million, followed by Afghanistan (2.7 million) and Somalia (1.1 million).

While Europe’s high-profile migrant crisis is the worst since World War II, it is just one part of a growing tide of human misery led by Palestinians, Syrians and Afghans. Globally, approaching one percent of humanity has been forced to flee. The UN refugee agency has disclosed that “this is the first time that the threshold of 60 million has been crossed.”

The figures, which were released on World Refugee Day, underscore twin pressures that are fuelling an unprecedented global displacement crisis. According to UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi, as conflict and persecution force growing numbers of people to flee, anti-migrant political sentiment has strained the will to resettle refugees, adding that “the willingness of nations to work together not just for refugees but for the collective human interest is what’s being tested today.”

A mixture of a number of factors have led to rising displacement and narrowing space for refugee settlement. The agency has disclosed that “situations that cause large refugee outflows are lasting longer,” including more than thirty years of unrest in both Somalia and Afghanistan. The UNHCR also indicated that news and intense conflicts as well as dormant crises that have been “reignited” are further fuelling the crisis, pointing to South Sudan, Yemen, Burundi, and the Central African Republic, side form Syria. The UNHCR also indicated that beyond the refugee hotspots in the Middle East and in Africa, there were also worrying signs in Central America, where growing numbers of people fleeing gang violence led to a 17 percent rise in those leaving their homes through 2015.

Terrorism in South East Asia: The Threat of Abu Sayyaf

Abu Sayyaf is one of the smallest and most violent jihadist groups in the southern Philippines. Its name means “bearer of the sword” and it is notorious for kidnapping for ransom, and for attacks on civilians and the army. The Abu Sayyaf Group operates mainly in Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi Provinces in the Sulu Archipelago and has a presence on Mindanao. Members also occasionally travel to Manila. The Abu Sayyaf Group was listed on the UN list of organizations sanctioned for association with Al Qaeda in October 6, 2001. 

Foundation and objectives

Abu Sayyaf has its roots in the separatist insurgency in the southern Philippines, an impoverished region where Muslims make up a majority of the population in contrast to the rest of the country, which is mainly Roman Catholic. Abdurajak Janjalani founded the Abu Sayyaf group in 1991 as a separatist militant Islamist movement from the National liberation front Moro. Its founding objective is to create an independent Islamic state in the southern Philippines areas of Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago. Since its creation, the group became more and more organized, using terrorist methods and tactics.

Functioning

Following the deaths over the last decade of a number of its key senior leaders, including its founder in 1998, and his brother in 2006 both killed by police forces, Abu Sayyaf has continued to fragment. It remains unclear whether a single figure now leads the group. However, a number of key figures appear to be possible leader such as have Radullan Sahiron, Isnilon Hapilon, Yasir Igasan and Khair Mundos. All have extensive operational experience and are capable of conducting their own independent operations.

Since its inception, Abu Sayyaf has been composed of sub-groups, mostly organised along traditional clan and familial lines. Abu Sayyaf membership consists primarily of young Filipino Muslims from the Sulu archipelago, though the group also attracts poverty‑stricken Muslims from across the southern Philippines. Abu Sayyaf membership at times has included foreign jihadists. Abu Sayyaf recruitment efforts have ensured membership numbers remain at approximately 400 fighters, spread predominantly across the Sulu Archipelago. However, membership numbers fluctuate in response to successful terrorist operations and pressure from the Philippine military, which dictate the available resources and relative incentives of membership.

Abu Sayyaf views kidnap-for-ransom and extortion ventures as profitable operational tactics. Kidnappings, in particular, have been a trademark of Abu Sayaaf since its creation and represent the main funding mechanism for the group. These activities help support members’ livelihood and provide resources for the group. Abu Sayyaf has also received funds from other Islamist terrorist organisations and enjoys support from elements of the local population of Jolo and Basilan. It seems that they also received support from Al Qaeda as they have connections to other terrorist groups.

Deadly attacks and kidnapping

Abu Sayyaf violence has claimed more than 100,000 lives since the 1970s. Since 2000, Abu Sayyaf group is known for several bombings including a ferry in Manila Bay in 2004 (116 casualties), a simultaneous attack in Manila and Davao in 2005 (8 casualties), an attack on the Filipino Congress in 2007 (3 casualties).

The Abu Sayyaf is also known for numerous kidnapping and ransoming, as it is their main funding resources. Abu Sayyaf’s hostages tend to be released if the ransom demanded for them is paid. This has been the outcome for most of their hostages. The group is known to kill captives if its demands are not met. In 2000, an Abu Sayyaf faction kidnapped 21 persons, including 10 Westerners, from a Malaysian resort, and, in May 2001, the group kidnapped three US citizens and 17 Filipinos from a resort in Palawan, Philippines, later murdering several of the hostages, including one US citizen. In June 2002, one of the two remaining hostages was killed in crossfire between Philippine soldiers and Abu Sayyaf. In 2013, an Australian hostage was released, even though no government officially recognised that they paid the ransom. In 2016, the group murdered two Canadian hostages: Robert Hall and John Ridsdel were murdered after the Canadian government refused to pay the ransom. Its recent kidnap of 18 Indonesians and Malaysians has also prompted fears for the maritime region. The latest is the kidnapping of seven Indonesian sailors in the Sulu Sea at the end of June 2016.

External connection

It is supposed that Abou Sayyaf is connected to Al Qaeda or Jemah Islamiyah. Many leaders had connections to Al Qaeda’s leaders such as Yasser Igasan who worked for the international terrorist group for 4 years. In 2006, Janjalani’s faction relocated to Sulu, where it joined forces with local Abu Sayyaf supporters who are providing shelter to fugitive Jemah Islamiyah members from Indonesia.

There are also fears that the group could be supporting terrorist activities by other IS-linked groups in the region. While there is no evidence that Abu Sayyaf was involved in this, the group has long had ties to prominent Indonesian militant groups like Mujahidin Indonesia Timur and Jemaah Islamiyah. Several members of this group involved in the Bali bombings found shelter with the group after fleeing Indonesia.

A spread of the threat

The Philippine army and police have been hunting the group in an attempt to defeat it and rescue its hostages for several months. A clash in early April between the army and the group resulted in 18 soldiers dead and 56 wounded, the army’s worst casualties in a year. It is not clear what approach incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will adopt once he takes office. On one hand he has threatened to invade Jolo if the kidnappers do not surrender. On the other he has indicated he is willing to negotiate with them, saying “we don’t go to war with our own people”.

The kidnapping remains also a great threat to the region. Kidnap-for-ransom operations have long been a lucrative business in the region but have escalated in recent years. The abductions have also become more brazen and spread beyond the Abu Sayyaf heartland of Sulu province to Palawan and Davao provinces. The Malaysian government has closed its border between Sabah state and the Philippines because of the recent spate of kidnappings of Malaysian citizens.

Finally, the activities of Abu Sayyaf threaten the maritime area. The Kuala Lumpur-based Piracy Reporting Centre has warned ships to stay clear of small suspicious vessels in the area. The region fears that the maritime area becomes a “new Somalia”, which could disrupt regional trade. The Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia agreed to take possible coordinated actions, including sea and air patrols, to stop an alarming wave of cross-border kidnappings and boat attacks by Abu Sayyaf extremists and other outlaws.

Paris Attacks Update: Terror Suspect to be Extradited to France

A court in Belgium has approved the extradition to France of Mohamed Abrini, a key suspect in both the Paris and Brussels attacks. Prosecutors however have disclosed that he may not be handed over for some time as he is currently being investigated in Belgium. Mohamed Bakkali, another suspect in the November 2015 attacks in Paris, will also be extradited.

Belgian judges have agreed that both men should be sent to France in order to face questioning over the Paris attacks, which killed 130 people. Prior to the hearing, Belgian prosecutors disclosed that Abrini would not be handed over the French authorities immediately, as he was still being investigated over the bombings at Zaventem airport and at a metro station immediately after. According to a spokesman for the federal prosecutor’s office, “the timeline is not at all fixed,” adding that it was possible that Abrini could stand trial in Belgium first before being handed over to France, or he might be questioned in Belgium by French investigators.

Abrini, a 31-year-old Belgian of Moroccan descent, was identified as “the man in the hat,” seen on CCTV just moments before the explosions at Brussels airport in March. He was also filmed at a petrol station in northern France with fellow suspect Salah Abdeslam, two days before the Paris attacks. He reportedly told investigators that he was at the scene of the 22 Mach suicide bombings in Brussels, which killed 32 people.

Investigators claim that the Brussels and Paris attackers were part of the same network, adding that they were backed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. Abrini was said to be part of that cell, and before his arrest in Brussels in April, he was one of Europe’s most-wanted men.

The other suspect who will be extradited, 29-year-old Mohamed Bakkali, is believed to have rented the Brussels apartment where the suicide vests that were used in the Paris attacks were assembled.

UK Votes Brexit

The world woke up on Friday to find out that the United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union (EU). As the markets tumbled overnight, with the pound plunging to record lows, uncertainty has taken over across the UK as British Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he will step down in the fall.

Polling stations opened on 23 June at 7 AM BST and closed at 10 PM BST. While polls indicated shortly after voting ended that the Remain camp was going to be the likely winner, overnight, as the vote count came in, it increasingly became apparent that Brits had voted to leave the EU. While Prime Minister David Cameron had urged the country to vote Remain, he was ultimately defeated by 52% to 48% despite London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backing staying in. The referendum turnout was 71.8% – with more than 30 million people voting. It was the highest turnout at a UK-wide vote since 1992. UKIP leader Nigel Farage has hailed Thursday’s vote as the UK’s “independence day.” Mr Farage, who has over the past twenty years campaigned for Britain to leave the EU, told cheering supporters that “this will be a victory for ordinary people, for decent people.” Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has stated that the EU vote “makes clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union” after all 32 local authority areas returned majorities for Remain. It is thought that Scotland may seek another referendum on separation from the UK.

The impact of the vote however has already been felt across the UK and on international markets, with the pound falling to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results. Bank of England governor Mark Carney has stated that UK banks’ “substantial capital and huge liquidity” allowed them to continue to lend to businesses and households, adding that the Bank of England is ready to provide an extra £250 billion of support.

PM to Step Aside

Despite MP’s signing a letter overnight urging Prime Minister David Cameron to stay on whatever the result, on Friday morning the Prime Minister announced that he will step down by October after the UK voted to leave the EU. Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, he disclosed that he would attempt to “steady the ship” over the coming weeks and months, noting however that “fresh leadership” was needed. Flanked by his wife Samantha, Prime Minister Cameron indicated that he had informed the Queen of his decision to remain in place for the short term and then hand over to a new prime minister by the time of the Conservative conference in October. He has indicated that it will be for the new prime minister to carry out negotiations with the EU and invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would effectively give the UK two years in order to negotiate its withdrawal.

Process to Leave the EU

While Britain is set to be the first country to leave the EU since its formation, the Leave vote does not immediately mean that Britain ceases to be a member of the 28-nation bloc.

That process could take a minimum of two years, with Leave campaigners suggesting during the referendum campaign that it should not be completed until 2020 – the date of the next scheduled general election. Once Article 50 has been triggered, a country cannot re-join the EU without the consent of all member states. Prime Minister Cameron previously indicated that he would trigger Article 50 as soon as possible after a Leave vote. However Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, who led the campaign to get Britain out of the EU, have disclosed that the prime minister should not rush into it. They have also indicated that they want to make immediate changes before the UK actually leaves the EU, such as curbing the power of EU judges and limiting the free movement of workers, potentially in breach of the UK’s treaty obligations. The government will also have to negotiate its future trading relationship with the EU and fix trade agreements with non-EU countries.

In Whitehall and Westminster, there will now begin the massive task of unstitching the UK from more than 40 years of EU law, deciding which directives and regulations to keep, amend or ditch.

EU Leaders Call for Stability and Solidarity in Wake of Vote

In the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU, shocked EU leaders have called for stability and solidary but also for change and reform. While President of the European Council Donald Tusk has stated that the remaining 27 members are determined to stay united, leaders like Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi have stated that the EU had to change and become “more human and more just.”

The European parliament has called for a special session for Tuesday 28 June to assess the vote, while foreign ministers of the six founding nations of the EU – Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg – will met in Berlin on 25 June. Some leaders of EU member states, such as France’s Francois Hollande, held their own crisis talks on Friday. European parliament president Martin Schulz, president of the European Council Donald Tusk, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also went into emergency talks.

Belgian Police Alerted to IS Fighters En Route to Europe

Reports have emerged that Belgian police have received an anti-terror alert warning that a group of Islamic State (IS) fighters recently left Syria, en route foe Europe planning to carry out attacks in Belgium and neighbouring France.

The Belgian crisis centre, which is in charge of coordinating security responses, has reported that an alert had been circulated to all police forces in the country. The centre however has noted that there are no immediate plans to raise the security level to the maximum, which would effectively indicate an imminent threat of an attack.

Newspaper DH quoted the alert from Belgium’s anti-terror cell as stating that the group “left Syria bout a week and a half ago aiming to reach Europe via Turkey and Greece by boat without passports.” The alert however did not give an exact departure date. The contents of the alert have been confirmed by a Belgian security source. DH has also reported that the fighters were armed and aimed to split into two units, one aiming to carry out attacks in Belgium while the other in France. Potential targets in Belgium included a shopping centre, a fast-food restaurant and a police station. The newspaper mentioned no specific targets in France, which is currently hosing the Euro 2016 football championships in ten stadiums across the country. The tournament will go until 10 July, with some 2.5 million spectators expected to watch the 51 games.

A source at France’s Interior Ministry has also disclosed that Belgian authorities had transmitted a note to their French counterparts, who are currently reviewing the information in the alert, adding, “we know the threat is very high…We’re reviewing all th elements (in the alert).” Speaking at a news conference, French government spokesman Stephane Le Foll disclosed “we know there are fighters who are coming back (to Europe),” adding that he could not confirm the specific alert from Belgium.

The alert comes just two days after an attack, who pledged allegiance to IS, killed a French police commander and his partner at their home outside Paris, and four days after a gunman declaring loyalty to IS massacred 49 people in a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida.