MS Risk Blog

Poland and the EU Commission

Since the elections in the autumn of last year Poland has certainly seen a hectic couple of months. Soon after forming government the Law and Justice Party, led by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, passed a law that would weaken the court, requiring, for example, a two-thirds majority for a decision to be binding. The Polish Constitutional Tribunal has later fought this, calling it unconstitutional. However, this ruling has been dismissed by the government. Towards the end of last year the government also introduced a bill to reform the country’s public broadcasters, which would empower the government to appoint or dismiss the country’s media executives. The national media council is closely tied to the Law and Justice party, and giving this council more power would, in essence, mean that the government would have a much greater influence over the country’s broadcasting of TV and Radio. These changes of the constitution and violations of democratic values in Poland has caused the EU to react. During the spring of this year opposition protests have flared up over the legislation that gives the government more influence over the justice system. This legislation has been rejected by the top court of the country, claiming that it limits the judiciary’s ability to dispense justice. The Law and Justice Party, in response, has contested the court’s right to rule at all in the matter. The government has been pressured internationally to recognise the court’s decision, not just from the EU and from human rights organisations, but from the US as well. Jaroslaw Kaczynski has seemed fearless regarding the risk of open conflict with the EU as he has officially rejected foreign advice and pleas to reverse the changes his party has made, saying that Poland will solve these matters on its own, without foreign intervention. In January the EU Commission activated its rule of law ‘framework’ in relation to Poland. This framework is an instrument aimed at protecting EU values like the rule of law, democracy, equality and the respect of human rights. It does not give the Commission power to fine the Polish government, cut any union funds, or suspend the right to vote in union matters, but it allows the commission to talk to, and negotiate with, Poland for a solution. In May Poland was given what seemed like an ultimatum by Brussels, which stated that the country’s leaders would have to show that progress is being made to remedy the situation. Failure to respond adequately to this would lead to new actions from the EU commission under the “rule of law framework. Vice-president of the European Commission, Frans Timmerman, has expressed recently that the changes to the Polish judiciary pose a risk to the principle of rule of law. Poland on the other hand is directing sharp criticism toward the commission over this matter, and claims that the EU has other reasons for interfering with what is in essence Poland’s domestic concerns. Polish Justice Minister, Zbigniew Ziobro, has accused Brussels of blackmailing Poland to force the country to take more than the 7,600 Syrian migrants agreed. Since Poland did not respond adequately to the warnings from Brussels the commission has activated a second stage under the framework, marking the first time ever this had been implemented. This can ultimately lead to the revocation of voting rights, however such penalties can only be implemented by the EU council and it would take a decision with a four-fifths majority that “the clear danger of a grave infringement” of common values exists in Poland. This would mean that Poland would officially be given recommendations on how to fix the underlying problems. Failure to do so would lead to EU Council conclusion that these “grave infringements” is in fact occurring. But this must be established unanimously, and if so, it would lead to the suspension of Poland’s right to vote. It is highly unlikely however, that all remaining 27 EU members would agree on this. The Polish government has a close ally in Viktor Orbán of Hungary, for example, and he has reportedly said that he would never let such a thing happen. Poland has reportedly considered going to the top European Union court to challenge the EU commission’s procedure against it, if Brussels doesn’t lowers its pressure. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has said “The procedure that is currently being used against us is a non-treaty procedure, a made-up one, and it can be challenged in the Court of Justice of the European Union at any moment.” Some say perhaps the best chance to influence the Polish government to reverse these changes now lies with the Americans. Poland has historically considered the US a close ally and is heavily dependent on NATO military support in the face of aggressions from Russia. Since Poland will be the host of the next big NATO summit, scheduled to take place in July, and is also hoping to secure larger contingents of allied troops on its territory, a clear message from Washington officials could perhaps have the desired effect. It is a dynamic situation and many thing might come to change over the course of the summer.

Guinea Again Declared Free of Ebola Transmission

On Wednesday 1 June, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that Guinea has reached the end of active Ebola virus transmission, in what is the second such declaration from the country at the epicenter of the world’s worst outbreak of the disease.

The proclamation was made because the person with Guinea’s last confirmed case tested negative for the second time more than 42 days ago. Guinea will now effectively enter a 90-day period of heightened surveillance in order to make sure of the identification of any new cases before they spread to others.

During the most recent outbreak, seven confirmed and three possible cases of the virus surfaced between 17 March and 6 April. At lest five people died. Another three cases were recorded in neighboring Liberia in a woman who had travelled from Guinea along with her two children. The WHO has disclosed that the flare-up seems to have occurred after a person came into contact with infected body fluid from an Ebola survivor. Since the virus remains active in certain body fluids for months, the WHO cautions that the risk of outbreaks remain, however on Tuesday, WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier disclosed that the organization is confident that affected countries are prepared and can deal with flare-ups efficiently.

Guinea is believed to be where the world’s worst Ebola outbreak occurred. The outbreak initially emerged in December 2014 and would later spread to two other neighboring countries – Liberia and Sierra Leone. Guinea first declared itself free of transmission in December 2015.

Seven Years On: Chilcot Iraq War Inquiry Report to Finally Be Released

The official inquiry into the Iraq War will be published on 6 July, less than a fortnight after the United Kingdom holds a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union (EU)

An announcement on the inquiry’s website indicated that “Sir John Chilcot and the Prime Minister have agreed that the Iraq Inquiry’s report will be published on Wednesday 6 July 2016.” The news comes after Prime Minister David Cameroon confirmed that the report would not be published until after the 23 June EU referendum, effectively prompting criticism that the delay was to avoid embarrassing key ‘In’ campaigners.

Tony Blair, who was the Labour Prime Minister at the time of the 2003 conflict, is expected to be criticised in the report, along with other members of his government. According to Sir John, the chairman of the inquiry which started work seven years ago, the 2.6 million word report has now been vetted for national security breaches “without the need for any redactions,” adding that British spies had completed the redaction process in mid-May. The delay however was branded a “stitch up” by anti-EU MPs. Former shadow Tory home secretary David Davis MP disclosed that the delay was based on the “thinnest of excuses” and that it looked like the publication of th report had been pushed back deliberately until after the EU referendum. He stated “at long last at least it will give some comfort and closure to the loved ones of the soldiers who made the ultimate sacrifice…Nevertheless it is still outrageous that this vital report should have been delayed for so long for seven years in total,” adding, “even worse it is now delayed on the thinnest of excuses until after the EU referendum and it is the most disgraceful thing of all to put the stitching up the referendum ahead of the rights of the families of the Iraqi war dead.” Matthew Jury, a solicitor who is acting for 29 families of British soldiers who died in the Iraq War, also stated that “if national security checking of the report took two weeks, the Families are bewildered by the Inquiry’s position that it needs another two months for the simple task of proofreading and formatting,” adding, “with all the resources of the state at its disposal, absent an explanation, the Inquiry’s claim that I needs until 6 July is simply not credible.”

Sir John however has defended the two month-delay, stating that “this will allow suitable time for the Inquiry to prepare the 2.6 million word report for publication, including final proof reading, formatting, printing and the steps required for electronic publications.” Sources close to the inquiry have reported that the timing of the referendum had no bearing on the publication date.

Families of British soldiers killed in Iraq have also condemned the decision to delay publication in order to allow for Sir John Chilcot’s report to be proofread and typeset as “appalling.”

US Intelligence Reveals Hackers Targeted Presidential Campaigns

On 18 May, the office of the US National Intelligence Director James Clapper disclosed that US Presidential campaigns and related organizations have been targeted by hackers. His office however did not provide details on specific intrusions.

In a statement, Mr Clapper’s spokesman, Brain Hale, disclosed that “we’re aware that campaigns and related organizations and individuals are targeted by actors with a variety of motivations – from philosophical differences to espionage – and capabilities – from defacements to intrusions.” He deferred to the FBI for details on specific incidents. Earlier, Clapper had disclosed that the US intelligence community had “already had some indications” of hacking attempts against presidential candidates. At a morning event at the Bipartisan Policy Centre in Washington, Clapper stated that “as the campaign intensifies we’ll probably have more” attacks.

The last two US presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012 witnesses a barrage of cyber attacks from a range of adversaries targeting President Barack Obama’s campaign and the campaigns of his Republican rivals. US intelligence officials have disclosed that many of the previous assaults were linked to Chinese hackers.

Report Suggests Smugglers Made US $5 Billion In Migration Wave to Europe in 2015

International crime-fighting agencies Interpol and Europol reported on Tuesday that people smugglers have made over US $5 billion from the wave of migration into southern Europe last year.

A report released by the two agencies disclosed that nine out of ten migrants and refugees who entered the European Union (EU) in 2015 relied on “facilitation services,” which comprised of mainly loose networks of criminals along the routes, noting that the proportion was likely to be even higher this year. The report further indicated that about 1 million migrants entered the EU in 2015, adding that most paid between 3,000 – 6,000 euros (US $3,400 – $6,800), so the average turnover was likely to be between US $5 billion and US $6 billion. According to the report, to launcher the money and integrate it into the legitimate economy, couriers carried large amounts of cash over borders while smugglers ran their proceeds through car dealerships, grocery stores, restaurants or transport companies. Furthermore, while the main organizers came from the same countries as the migrants, they often had EU residence permits or passports. The report states that “the basic structure of migrant smuggling networks includes leaders who coordinate activities along a given route, organizers who manage activities locally through personal contacts, and opportunistic low-level facilitators who mostly assist organizers and may assist in recruitment activities.” The report added that corrupt officials may let vehicles through border checks or release ships for bribes, as there was so much money in the trafficking trade. About 250 smuggling “hotspots,” often at railway stations, airports or coach stations, have been identified along the routes, in which of these 170 were inside the EU while 80 were located outside. The reports authors however found no evidence of fighting between criminal groups, noting however that larger criminal networks slowly took over smaller opportunistic ones, effectively leading to an oligopoly. Last year, the vast majority of migrants opted to take risky boat trips across the Mediterranean from Turkey or Libya, and then travelling on by road. The report states that around 800,000 were still in Libya waiting to travel to the EU, noting however that increasing border controls effectively mean that air travel is likely to become more attractive, with fraudulent documents rented out to migrants and then taken back by an accompanying facilitator. The report also indicates that migrant smuggling routes could be used to smuggle drugs or guns, adding that there is a growing concern that radicalized foreign fighters could also use these routes in order to enter the EU. The report however adds that there currently is no concrete data yet to suggest that militant groups consistently relied on or cooperated with organized crime groups.