MS Risk Blog

Liberia Outbreak Declared Over

On 9 June, the latest Ebola outbreak in Liberia, the last country still affected by the deadliest flare-up in history, was declared over.

Liberia effectively passed the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold of 42 days – twice the incubation period for the virus, since the last known patient tested negative for the second time. Last week, the WHO declared an end to the latest Ebola outbreak in Guinea, however it warned that a recurrence of the virus remained a threat as previous declarations announcing the end of Ebola flare-ups in West Africa have been followed by the emergence of new cases. While in late March, the WHO declared that the Ebola outbreak no longer constituted an international emergency, new cases emerged in Liberia just two days later.

The Ebola epidemic began in Guinea in December 2013 and killed more than 11,300 people. It devastated economies and health systems in the worst affected countries in West Africa and tested the world’s capacity to respond to a global health emergency. At its peak in 2014, the Ebola outbreak sparked anxiety about a possible global pandemic and led some governments to threaten or unilaterally enforce travel bans to and from the worst-affected countries. In all, the virus affected ten countries, including the United States and Spain, with more than 28,000 cases reported – virtually all in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

The WHO has drawn criticism for its delayed response to the Ebola crisis and its failure to identify the outbreak.

Detention of teacher union leaders sparked clashes between protesters and authorities in southern Mexican state of Oaxaca, tensions likely to remain high in coming weeks

Clashes are likely to continue and intensify in coming weeks as CNTE protests take place across the country, particularly in the union’s stronghold states such as Oaxaca. As a key tourist hotspot those travelling to Oaxaca are likely to experience disruption to travel as protests block main entrances into and out of the city. 

The CNTE was founded in 1979 as a dissident union to the mainstream SNTE and has since been particularly strong in poor southern rural states such as Oaxaca, Chiapas and Guerrero. They are strongly opposed to the government’s 2014 education reform. Despite constant pressure in the last two years the CNTE has refused to stand down to government demands to enact the education reform and are particularly concerned about losing their right to keep a seat at the table with government in determining how teachers are hired. They have constantly asked that the union be included as a partner on education, which the government has rejected.

Over the weekend federal forces detained the secretary general of the National Education Teacher’s Union (CNTE), Rubén Nuñez Ginez, in the state of México, as well as Francisco Villalobos, the leader of the Oaxacan Section 22 of the CNTE. Supporters of the CNTE are calling the detention a “kidnapping” by the state on political grounds. The Attorney General’s Office (PGR) claim that the two union leaders are being held for alleged money laundering, aggravated robbery and illicit enrichment.

The detentions underline the highly politicised nature of the government’s relation with the CNTE, who have maintained pressure on the government to negotiate the terms of the 2014 education reform, which they outright reject. While teacher protests are a regular occurrence in the capital Mexico City, particularly during school holidays, and in other major cities in the south, protesters have upped the ante since the arrests this weekend, constructing road blocks and preventing the federal authorities from entering Oaxaca state by the official highway. 

Oaxaca

The CNTE is particularly strong in the poor southern state of Oaxaca, where the union believes rural teachers will be most affected by mass-lay offs and an education reform, which they argue does not respect local teaching practices in rural communities.

The government’s aggressive tactic to detain key leaders saw CNTE members and their families respond with vociferous opposition on Sunday, constructing more than 23 road blocks around Oaxaca city, and disrupting traffic from entering or leaving the city. Entrance and exit to Oaxaca airport and that of the beach town Puerto Escondido have been severely hampered by the roadblocks.  The authorities have responded in a heavy handed manner attempting to clear the protesters, firing tear gas and further inciting tensions between both sides. On Sunday night and Monday night clashes took place between the authorities and protesters throughout Oaxaca city. 

The Oaxaca faction Section 22 of the CNTE has maintained a strong protest movement against the government’s education reform in recent years and at key times – often in the school holidays – the teachers erect makeshift camps in major squares or outside government buildings in protest against the government’s refusal to negotiate on the terms of the reform. Throughout May authorities did not respond to the growing protests and road blocks in the city, likely because they did not want to threaten stability for the major PRI party ahead of the June 5 state election. However, with the PRI winning the state again, the authorities are now more likely to respond in a heavy-handed manner.

As such, tensions are expected to remain extremely strained in the coming weeks with regular clashes unless the government offers an avenue for dialogue or releases the detainees.

The education reform has been a highly contentious element of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s reform agenda. During the June state elections the governing PRI party suffered a series of defeats and the two-year old left-wing group MORENA, led by the charismatic Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador (AMLO) – formerly head of the PRD – made significant strides, notably in Oaxaca. AMLO has come out in support of the protesting teachers, which is likely to intensify the political debate around the education debate. However, with government unlikely to open new routes for dialogue with the CNTE, more disruption and potential violence is likely in the weeks ahead. 

France Launches Terror Alert App for Euro 2016 Football Tournament

The French government has released a mobile app to alert the public in the even of a terrorist attack. The app was released ahead of the Euro 2016 football tournament, which began on 10 June.

According to a statement released by the French interior ministry, the app will alert geo-located users “in case of a suspected attack.” Users will be able to sign up to receive alerts in up to eight different “geographical zones” in addition to their present location. Alerts will offer a brief description of what has happened as well as advice on how to stay safe. They will not cause the phone to vibrate or emit any sound in order to ensure that anyone hiding at the site of an attack does not alert the attackers. Officials have disclosed that later versions of the app will also alert users to other types of emergencies beyond attacks, including floods and industrial accidents. The government has disclosed that the app was developed in the wake of the November 2015 attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people.

The release of the app comes just days after the British Foreign Office warned that stadiums, fan zones and transport hubs were possible targets for attack during the football tournament.

Global Terror Attacks Declined in 2015

According to the United States State Department, there was a marked fall in the number of terror attacks that occurred around the world in 2015.

In a newly released report this month, the State Department attributed the 13% decline from 2014 to fewer attacks in Iraq, Nigeria and Pakistan, which are three of the five countries that have been the worst affected by terrorism. The other two are Afghanistan and India. Together, more than half of the 11,000 attacks that occurred last year happened within the borders of these five countries.

Data compiled by the University of Maryland indicates that more than 28,300 people died – a 14% decline – and about 35,300 others were wounded in 11,774 terrorist attacks that occurred worldwide last year. State Department Acting Co-ordinator for Counterterrorism Justin Siberell notes that attacks and deaths increased in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, the Philippines, Syria and Turkey. The State Department also reported that figures indicate that the terror threat “continued to evolve rapidly in 2015, becoming increasingly decentralized and diffused,” adding that extremists were exploiting frustration in countries “where avenues for free and peaceful expression of opinion were blocked.” The State Department highlighted that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group is the biggest single threat, adding that the group has attracted affiliates and supporters in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. It noted that while IS was losing territory in Iraq and Syria, it was gaining strength in Libya and Egypt. The United Nations has also warned that IS is increasingly focusing on international civilian targets. The UN has reported that over the past six months, IS had carried out attacks in eleven countries. This does not include the militant group’s ongoing activity in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen.

The State Department report also disclosed that Iran was the biggest state sponsor of terrorism, stating that it supported conflicts in Syria and Iraq and that it was also implicated in violent Shia opposition raids in Bahrain. Bahrain has accused Iran of supplying weapons to Shia militants behind bomb attacks on security forces however Iran has denied this.

Libya’s Continuing Migrant Challenge

An important, but often under-discussed aspect of Europe’s migrant crisis is the specific roles played by criminal organizations. In a rare development, the Italian Government announcd that an Eritrean national named Mered Medhanie was now in their custody. He had previously been detained in Sudan back in May, before being formally extradited to Italy. In contrast to the political divisions that existed for much of the crisis, the UK’s National Crime Agency and Italian prosecutors worked together closely. The BBC reported that the NCA obtained specific information about Medhanie’s presence in Sudan that made the arrest possible. Italian prosecutors have alleged that Medhanie, along with an Ethiopian accomplice, ran one of the largest human-traffic organizations transporting migrants across the Mediterranean Sea. As with many of the human traffickers, he was suspected of having a blatant disregard for safety, including packing hundreds of migrants on to unseaworthy boats. The Italian investigation, based out of the Sicilian city of Palermo, has argued that Medhanie was directly connected with the sinking of a boat off the island of Lampedusa in October 2013. At least 359 migrants died after the boat, travelling from Libya to Italy, capsized suddenly.

Though Mered Medhanie’s arrest is an important development, it does not change the larger, tragic trend in human trafficking. The Red Crescent reported on June 2 that at least 100 migrants died after their boat capsized off the Libyan coast (exact numbers differ, with 100 being the conservative estimate). Libya’s Coast Guard is largely viewed as lacking the proper resources, personnel and equipment to handle the current crisis. As bodies wash ashore on Libya’s coastline, the large number of maritime emergencies recently make it difficult to know which human remains were connected with an individual sinking. Though the Libyan Coast Guard has limited successes, such as intercepting 100 migrants on June 7, these are only a small percentage of the total. Considerable international aid has been pledged to help Libya, but assistance has been hindered by internal conflict, corruption and governance problems. Until Libya’s political fragmentation is meaningfully addressed, it is difficult to see a comprehensive strategy being successful.