MS Risk Blog

German Interior Minister Warns of Further “Lone Wolf” Attacks

In the wake of a train stabbing, German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has warned that Germans should be prepared for further attacks carried out by small groups and radicalized “lone wolves.”

On 18 July, five people were wounded, two critically, by a 17-year-old who went on the rampage on a train in Wurzburg in the southern state of Bavaria. According to witnesses, the attacker, who has been named as Muhammad Riyadh, screamed “Allahu Akbar” (God is great) three times. Riyadh, who arrived in Germany last year as an unaccompanied migrant, was shot dead holding an axe and a knife. A video has since emerged, in which he states that he was a soldier of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. Through its news agency IS has claimed that the teenager was a follower. Authorities found a hand-painted IS flag in his room.

Riyadh had only just moved to a foster family in Wurzburg from a refugee centre at Ochsenfurt, which is located south of Frankfurt. He was described as a quiet boy who had had a work placement in a bakery. He apparently did not display any radical behaviour. Questions however have been raised about whether he was really from Afghanistan, with reports emerging that a Pakistani document was found in his room. It is common knowledge that Afghan refugees are more likely to be given asylum in Germany than irregular migrants from Pakistan, so there have been many cases of migrants pretending to come from Afghanistan. Furthermore, several clues to his origin have also emerged from the video that he filmed before he carried out the attack on the region al train near his home. His use of the Pashto language suggests that he spent at least some time in Pakistan, because of his choice of words. When speaking of Syria, Riyadh chose to use the word Sham, a word that is commonly used in Pakistan. In Afghanistan, Pashto speakers would say Shuria. Furthermore, his choice of term for army is also key as he states, Fauj, which is common in Pakistan, rather than Aurdu, which is the word that is used in Afghanistan.

Interior Minister de Maiziere has since reported that the teenager had been “incited” by IS propaganda, adding however that there was no evidence that he was following the militant group’s orders. Furthermore, Riyadh was unknown to German intelligence agencies and no concrete link has yet been established with IS. The minister has warned that while the government is doing all it can in order to prevent such attacks, there could be no guarantee. The minister described Monday night’s attack as “perhaps half-way between running amok and terror,” adding that “in Germany, we must also expect attacks by small groups or radicalized ‘lone-wolf’ attackers.”

The attack has raised questions about Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door refugee policy. The attack is likely to deepen worries about so-called “lone wolf” attacks across Europe and could put political pressure on Merkel, who over the past year has welcomed hundreds of thousands of migrants to Germany. Unlike neighbouring France and Belgium, Germany in recent years has not been the victim of a major attack by Islamist militants, however security officials have disclosed that they have thwarted a large number of plots.

Daily demonstrations by the teacher’s union in Mexico underline widespread disillusionment with the government, amid rising levels of violence

June and July have seen daily demonstrations by the National Education Teacher´s Union (CNTE- Spanish abbreviation) across a number of states in Mexico, in particular the southern states of Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca, as well as in the capital, Mexico City.

The CNTE continue to vociferously oppose the government´s education reform and has been actively protesting since 2012. However, this summer events have seen increased tensions between state authorities and the protesters, following the June detention of two key union leaders, which was labelled by CNTE supporters as an act of “political disappearance”.

In late June the protests became particularly violent during a road blockade in Nochixtlán, on the main highway out of Oaxaca by a PEMEX refinery. The blockade turned violent as factions of the federal police and gendarmerie encircled the protesters and allegedly pushed them back into the town. Seven people were killed during the clashes and tens of citizens were injured. In a normally peaceful rural town, the clashes have left a significant mark on the local population and many questions still to be answered. Why did the police push the protesters back into the town, where they knew any clashes were likely to also involve bystanders, including children. A normally peaceful rural town, the events in Nochixtlán have left a significant mark on the local population and more wider across the country as the authorities have been slow to give clarity surrounding the events of the night. While at first the police claimed they were not armed, pictures circling on social media quickly contradicted this. The question thus remains, who fired the first shot? 

An independent Ombudsman report is investigating why federal police entered into the town blocking off certain areas, rather than removing the protest from the highway. As the town remains in a state of shock following the violent incidents, protesters both in Oaxaca and across the country increasingly blame the police for heavy-handed measures further polarising the protesters and factions of the state.

On 20 July in the southern state of Chiapas, another CNTE heartland, factions of the police removed a CNTE road protest on the highway between San Cristobal (state capital) and Tuxtla Gutiérrez. Events became violent as the police set the camp on fire and clashed with protesters. Such events are becoming increasingly common as the CNTE have set up road-blocks across numerous state highways. This is significantly affecting businesses, most small and multinational, who are unable to move their cargo across swathes of the country and are reportedly losing vast amounts of money.

The capital, Mexico City, is brought to a standstill most days as the major thoroughfare Reforma Avenue is closed off for CNTE protests, these usually take place during peak afternoon traffic times. While this significantly affects those travelling into and out of the city, the protests continue to be peaceful with the police allowing protesters to march along Reforma avenue, with a heavy police presence. Yet, as the summer holidays enter into their second month the protests are noticeably increasing in volume and size and the government remains silent with no cohesive plan to negotiate with the CNTE. 

While the protests are organised by the CNTE, they have moved from just focusing on the education reform and are a wider manifestation of widespread disillusion with the government. Protesters chant against entrenched political corruption, human rights abuses and the on-going humanitarian crisis concerning those who have ¨disappeared¨ with no one held accountable. At the same time, violent crime statistics are rising throughout the country to levels seen under former-president Felipe Calderon´s administration during the peak of the ¨war on drugs¨.

As Mexico enters into the third stage of the government´s six-year tenure in office,the protests are likely to grow louder and stronger as citizens put pressure on the political elite to give way to a new form of politics. Independent candidates are increasingly popular, as the electorate move away from the traditional bastions of the right – the National Action Party (PAN), the left – the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). The rise of political academic Denise Dresser will be an interesting element to watch in future politics, as well as the left-wing MORENA party, who actively support the CNTE and are strongly opposed to the country’s energy reform, enacted by the government in 2013.

France Votes to Extend State of Emergency by Six Months

France’s National Assembly voted this month in order to extend the state of emergency for six months. The move follows the attack in Nice in which 84 people were killed and scores injured when a lorry was driven into crowds. It also comes after President Francois Hollande stated earlier this month, and prior to the attack in Nice, that he did not intend to extend the state of emergency beyond 26 July.

The latest extension effectively brings the state of emergency until the end of January 2017. It is the fourth extension that France’s parliament has proposed and the move must be approved by the Senate. The last extension was to cover the Euro 2016 football tournament and the end of the Tour de France cycling race.

As France continues to grapple with the growing threat from jihadist militants, Prime Minister Manuel Valls has warned that France must expect more deadly attacks despite precautions taken by his government. Speaking at the debate in the National Assembly, Valls stated that France would have to learn to live with the threat. He went on to say that “even if these words are hard to say, its my duty to do so…There will be other attacks and there will be other innocent people killed. We must not become accustomed, we must never become accustomed, to the horror, but we must learn to live with this menace.”

The state of emergency was initially brought in after terror attacks occurred in Paris in November 2015, in which 130 people were killed. That attack was claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. The emergency measures give the police additional powers to carry out searches and to place people under house arrest.

Questions however have emerged over what impact the emergency measures have had on the country. A recent commission of inquiry found that the state of emergency was only having a “limited impact” on improving security. It further questioned the deployment of between 6,000 and 7,000 soldiers to protect schools, synagogues, department stores and other sensitive sites.

French Authorities Identify Leader of 13 November Terror Attacks.

French authorities have disclosed that they have identified the commander of the 13 November 2015 Islamist militant attacks in Paris. They have further disclosed that Abdelhamid Abaaoud, who was cornered and killed by police just days later, played a lesser role in the attacks.

Newly published official documents cite testimony by Bernard Bajolet, France’s head of external security, to a closed-door parliamentary inquiry into France’s anti-terrorism activities on 24 May. Bajolet however did not identify who authorities now think was the commander, nor did he disclose whether the person is alive or dead.

Abaaoud was initially described as the leader of the machinegun and suicide bomb attacks on the Bataclan music hall, Paris bars and restaurants, and the Stade de France, in which 130 people were killed. During the inquiry, Bajolet is quoted as stating, “it is true that Abaaoud was a coordinate, but he was not the commander…We know who the commander is, but I will stay discreet on that point,” adding, “we now have a good knowledge of the organogram…We have made progress on these subjects, we therefore have an idea of the identity of the commander.”

Last week, Parliament published recommendations of the inquiry, and on Tuesday 12 July, it released its full report.

EU Referendum: MPs Will Debate a Second Vote

It has been announced that British politicians will debate holding a second EU referendum after a petition, which was set up by a Brexiter, triggered a Commons discussion. More than four million people have signed the petition.

The debate in the House of Commons has been scheduled for 5 September. While Incoming Prime Minister Theresa May has already insisted that “Brexit means Brexit,” the Petitions Committee has ruled that because of the number of people who have signed the petition, the issue should be discussed. The House of Commons has disclosed that “the Committee has decided that the huge number of people signing this petition means that it should be debated by MPs,” adding that “the Petitions Committee would like to make clear that, in scheduling this debate, they are not supporting the call for a second referendum…The debate will allow MPs to put forward a range of views on behalf of their constituents. At the end of the debate, a Government minister will respond to the points raised.”

The petition was set up by Brexiter Oliver Healey a month before the referendum took place, when he thought that his side was going to lose the vote. It states, “we the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based (on) a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.”