MS Risk Blog

Belgium Launches Raids

Police operations carried out in Mons and Liege last week resulted in two brothers being arrested on suspicion of carrying an attack on the country.

One of the men arrested, named only as Nouredine H, 33, has ben charged over an alleged plot to attack Belgium. He is accused of attempting to commit a “terrorist murder” and participation in the activities of a terrorist organization and was arrested along with his brother Hamza H. Hamza H. has since been released from police custody without charge. The raids were carried out by federal police in the cities of Mons and Liege, with officials disclosing that no weapons or explosives were found during the operations. In a statement, the federal prosecution office disclosed that “based on provisional results from the investigation, it appears that there were plans to carry out an attack somewhere in Belgium.” The French version of the statement referred to “planning attacks” in the plural.

Belgium is currently on security alert level three, of four, effectively meaning that the threat is considered serious, possible and probable. In March, thirty-two people were killed after attacks were carried out on Brussels Airport and a metro station in the city. Last month, Belgian police disclosed that they had received warning that a group of so-called Islamic State (IS) fighters had recently left Syria and were heading to Europe to plan attacks in Belgium and neighbouring France.

EU Proposes New Asylum Rules in Latest Bid to Stop Migrants Crossing Europe

On 13 July, the European Commission proposed more unified European Union (EU) asylum rules in what is the latest bid to stop people waiting for refugee status moving around the bloc and disrupting its passport-free zone.

Last year, in an unprecedented wave of migration, 1.3 million people reached the European continent, with most ignoring legal restrictions and instead opting to trek from the Mediterranean coast to apply for asylum in Germany. This prompted some EU countries to suspend the Schengen Area system, which allows free passage between most EU states.

The new proposal would standardize refugee reception facilities across the bloc and unify the level of state support that they can get, setting common rules on residence permits, travel papers, access to jobs, schools, social welfare and healthcare. It would grant prospective refugees swifter rights to work, however it would also place more obligations on them, effectively meaning that if they do not cooperate with the authorities or head to an EU state of their choice rather than staying put, their asylum application could be jeopardized. The Commission has stated that the five-year waiting period after which refugees are eligible for long-term residence would be started if they move from their designated country.     According to EU Migration Commissioner Dimitis Avramopoulos, “the change will create a genuine common asylum procedure,” adding that “at the same time, we set clear obligations and duties for asylum seekers to prevent secondary movements and abuse of procedures.”

The United Nations refugee agency UNHCR has already indicated that it has concerns about the new rules, stating that the new system must not lower standards of protection and asylum.

The plan, which will be reviewed by EU governments and the European Parliament, comes after Brussels proposed in May a system for distributing asylum seekers, an idea that has been opposed by eastern EU states, which refuse to accept refugees. The Commission has reported that only 3,056 people have so far been relocated under the scheme that was meant for 160,000 people. Both Hungary and Slovakia have challenged the system in the courts.

Record Number of Terror Attacks Recorded in EU During 2015

Last year, a record number of terrorist attacks were planned, foiled or carried out within European Union (EU) countries, with the United Kingdom reporting the highest number of attacks.

EU law enforcement agency Europol has reported that in 2015, there were 211 attack, the highest since records began in 2006. The failed, foiled and completed terrorist attacks occurred in six EU member states: Denmark, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and the UK. Of these countries, the UK had the highest number of attacks, 103 in total, in which most are believed to have been in Northern Ireland.

France had the highest number of planned, foiled or completed attacks – 72 – followed by Spain with 25. A spokeswoman for Europol has disclosed that it did not have a breakdown of the number of terror attacks that had actually been carried out in the EU.

According to the agency’s EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report, there were 1,000 arrests for terrorist-related offences last year, in which 424 occurred in France. Europol has further reported that more than half of arrests that occurred in the EU – 687 – were “for jihadist terrorism,” adding that of these arrests, 94% were later found guilty in court. In addition to the jihadist terrorist arrests, there were 67 arrests for left-wing terror; 11 for right-wing terror; and 168 separatist. A further 144 arrests were unspecified. Europol has reported that 151 people died and that more than 360 were injured in terrorist incidents that occurred last year.

In its report, Europol states that “as in previous years, the attacks specifically classified as separatist terrorism accounted for the largest proportion, followed by jihadist attacks.” Europol also noted that the report outlines two “worrying developments,” stating that “the overall threat is reinforced by the substantial numbers of returned foreign terrorist fighters that many member states now have on their soil, and the significant rise in nationalist (xenophobic), racist and anti-Semitic sentiments across the EU, each resulting in acts of right-wing extremism.” While Europol has indicated that there was “no concrete evidence to date that terrorist travellers systematically use the flow of refugees to enter Europe unnoticed,” it noted that two of the men who carried out the 13 November terror attacks in Paris France, which killed 130 people, had entered the EU through Greece as part of the influx of refugees from Syria.

The report also highlighted that nuclear power plants and nuclear weapon facilities in the EU “remain potential targets for terrorists,” as does “the deliberate contamination of water supplies,” adding “explosive remnants of war and illicit trafficking in explosives from former conflict areas present a significant threat to the EU.” The report goes on to state that “chemical facilities or companies, especially these perceived as having a low profile until recently, can become a vulnerable target,” adding, “terrorists prefer the use of conventional firearms and explosives because of their availability, simplicity and effectiveness. Europol also described cyber terrorism as “high potential but currently low probability.”

German Interior Minister Warns of Further “Lone Wolf” Attacks

In the wake of a train stabbing, German Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has warned that Germans should be prepared for further attacks carried out by small groups and radicalized “lone wolves.”

On 18 July, five people were wounded, two critically, by a 17-year-old who went on the rampage on a train in Wurzburg in the southern state of Bavaria. According to witnesses, the attacker, who has been named as Muhammad Riyadh, screamed “Allahu Akbar” (God is great) three times. Riyadh, who arrived in Germany last year as an unaccompanied migrant, was shot dead holding an axe and a knife. A video has since emerged, in which he states that he was a soldier of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. Through its news agency IS has claimed that the teenager was a follower. Authorities found a hand-painted IS flag in his room.

Riyadh had only just moved to a foster family in Wurzburg from a refugee centre at Ochsenfurt, which is located south of Frankfurt. He was described as a quiet boy who had had a work placement in a bakery. He apparently did not display any radical behaviour. Questions however have been raised about whether he was really from Afghanistan, with reports emerging that a Pakistani document was found in his room. It is common knowledge that Afghan refugees are more likely to be given asylum in Germany than irregular migrants from Pakistan, so there have been many cases of migrants pretending to come from Afghanistan. Furthermore, several clues to his origin have also emerged from the video that he filmed before he carried out the attack on the region al train near his home. His use of the Pashto language suggests that he spent at least some time in Pakistan, because of his choice of words. When speaking of Syria, Riyadh chose to use the word Sham, a word that is commonly used in Pakistan. In Afghanistan, Pashto speakers would say Shuria. Furthermore, his choice of term for army is also key as he states, Fauj, which is common in Pakistan, rather than Aurdu, which is the word that is used in Afghanistan.

Interior Minister de Maiziere has since reported that the teenager had been “incited” by IS propaganda, adding however that there was no evidence that he was following the militant group’s orders. Furthermore, Riyadh was unknown to German intelligence agencies and no concrete link has yet been established with IS. The minister has warned that while the government is doing all it can in order to prevent such attacks, there could be no guarantee. The minister described Monday night’s attack as “perhaps half-way between running amok and terror,” adding that “in Germany, we must also expect attacks by small groups or radicalized ‘lone-wolf’ attackers.”

The attack has raised questions about Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door refugee policy. The attack is likely to deepen worries about so-called “lone wolf” attacks across Europe and could put political pressure on Merkel, who over the past year has welcomed hundreds of thousands of migrants to Germany. Unlike neighbouring France and Belgium, Germany in recent years has not been the victim of a major attack by Islamist militants, however security officials have disclosed that they have thwarted a large number of plots.

Daily demonstrations by the teacher’s union in Mexico underline widespread disillusionment with the government, amid rising levels of violence

June and July have seen daily demonstrations by the National Education Teacher´s Union (CNTE- Spanish abbreviation) across a number of states in Mexico, in particular the southern states of Chiapas, Guerrero and Oaxaca, as well as in the capital, Mexico City.

The CNTE continue to vociferously oppose the government´s education reform and has been actively protesting since 2012. However, this summer events have seen increased tensions between state authorities and the protesters, following the June detention of two key union leaders, which was labelled by CNTE supporters as an act of “political disappearance”.

In late June the protests became particularly violent during a road blockade in Nochixtlán, on the main highway out of Oaxaca by a PEMEX refinery. The blockade turned violent as factions of the federal police and gendarmerie encircled the protesters and allegedly pushed them back into the town. Seven people were killed during the clashes and tens of citizens were injured. In a normally peaceful rural town, the clashes have left a significant mark on the local population and many questions still to be answered. Why did the police push the protesters back into the town, where they knew any clashes were likely to also involve bystanders, including children. A normally peaceful rural town, the events in Nochixtlán have left a significant mark on the local population and more wider across the country as the authorities have been slow to give clarity surrounding the events of the night. While at first the police claimed they were not armed, pictures circling on social media quickly contradicted this. The question thus remains, who fired the first shot? 

An independent Ombudsman report is investigating why federal police entered into the town blocking off certain areas, rather than removing the protest from the highway. As the town remains in a state of shock following the violent incidents, protesters both in Oaxaca and across the country increasingly blame the police for heavy-handed measures further polarising the protesters and factions of the state.

On 20 July in the southern state of Chiapas, another CNTE heartland, factions of the police removed a CNTE road protest on the highway between San Cristobal (state capital) and Tuxtla Gutiérrez. Events became violent as the police set the camp on fire and clashed with protesters. Such events are becoming increasingly common as the CNTE have set up road-blocks across numerous state highways. This is significantly affecting businesses, most small and multinational, who are unable to move their cargo across swathes of the country and are reportedly losing vast amounts of money.

The capital, Mexico City, is brought to a standstill most days as the major thoroughfare Reforma Avenue is closed off for CNTE protests, these usually take place during peak afternoon traffic times. While this significantly affects those travelling into and out of the city, the protests continue to be peaceful with the police allowing protesters to march along Reforma avenue, with a heavy police presence. Yet, as the summer holidays enter into their second month the protests are noticeably increasing in volume and size and the government remains silent with no cohesive plan to negotiate with the CNTE. 

While the protests are organised by the CNTE, they have moved from just focusing on the education reform and are a wider manifestation of widespread disillusion with the government. Protesters chant against entrenched political corruption, human rights abuses and the on-going humanitarian crisis concerning those who have ¨disappeared¨ with no one held accountable. At the same time, violent crime statistics are rising throughout the country to levels seen under former-president Felipe Calderon´s administration during the peak of the ¨war on drugs¨.

As Mexico enters into the third stage of the government´s six-year tenure in office,the protests are likely to grow louder and stronger as citizens put pressure on the political elite to give way to a new form of politics. Independent candidates are increasingly popular, as the electorate move away from the traditional bastions of the right – the National Action Party (PAN), the left – the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). The rise of political academic Denise Dresser will be an interesting element to watch in future politics, as well as the left-wing MORENA party, who actively support the CNTE and are strongly opposed to the country’s energy reform, enacted by the government in 2013.