MS Risk Blog

Brazil Senate Votes in Favor of Impeachment Trial for Rousseff

The Brazilian Senate has voted to hold an impeachment trial of suspended President Dilma Rousseff, who has been accused of breaking the budget law.

Following a marathon debate, which ended early on Wednesday, the Senate voted 59 to 21 in favour of going ahead with the trial against Ms Rousseff, which is likely to be held at the end of this month. A two-thirds majority is needed in the final vote following the trial, which is likely to take place in the week after the Summer Olympics closing ceremony. Ms Rousseff was suspended in May by the Senate over alleged illegal accounting practices, which she says were common practice under previous administrations. She has been accused of spending money without congressional approval and taking out unauthorized loans from state banks to boost the national budget ahead of the 2014 election, when she was re-elected. Her allies in the Workers’ Party have pointed out that many of the members of the Brazilian Congress who have accused her are implicated in corruption cases themselves.

While Ms Rousseff is not facing corruption charges in Brazil’s wide-ranging scandal around the state oil company, Petrobras, she has been tainted by the Scandal, in which her Workers’ Party is accused of lining its campaign war chests with some of the missing money. If Ms Rousseff is removed from office, the interim president, her former running mate Michel Temer, will remain in the presidential chair until the next elections, due to take place in 2018. Ms Rousseff has accused him of orchestrating a political coup against her.

The Islamic State (IS) in Libya: Key Dates

The so-called Islamic State (IS) group moved into Libya in 2014, amidst the chaos that followed the ouster of Moamer Kadhafi in 2011. On 1 August 2016, at the request of Libya’s unity government, United States warplanes carried out their first air strikes on positions in the IS bastion of Sirte.

Below are key dates of IS’ presence in Libya:

First Jihadist Attacks

• 19 November 2014 – The US says that it is “concerned” by reports that radical extremists with avowed ties to IS are destabilizing eastern Libya, having already seized vast areas of territory in Iraq and Syria.
• 27 December 2014 – IS claims responsibility for a car bombing outside the diplomatic security building in Tripoli. The attack causes no casualties.
• 27 January 2015 – IS claims responsibility for an attack on Tripoli’s luxury Corinthia Hotel, in which nine people, including five foreigners, are killed.

Since January 2015, IS has carried out a number of suicide attacks, including the February 2015 attack in Al-Qoba, near the eastern town of Derna, which killed 44 people; and the January 2016 attack that targeted a police school in Zliten, east of Tripoli, which killed more than 50 people.

IS Videos of Killings

• 15 February 2015 – IS releases a video depicting the beheading of 21 Coptic Christians, in which all but one was Egyptian. The militant group states that the act was filmed in January. Egypt carried out air strikes on IS in its then stronghold of Derna.
• 19 April 2015 – A new video shows the execution-style killing of 28 Christians originally from Ethiopia.

IS Seizes Sirte

• 9 June 2015 – IS announces that it has captured Sirte, which is located east of Tripoli. The city is the hometown of Kadhafi.
• 12 July 2015 – After weeks of fierce fighting with Derna’s Mujahedeen Council, IS finally acknowledges that it has been pushed out of the town.

First US Strikes

• 13 November 2015 – The US bombs IS leaders in Libya for the first time, stating that it killed Abu Nabil, an Iraqi also known as Wissam Najm Abd Zayd al-Zubaydi. Libyan officials identify him as the IS chief in Derna.
• 19 February 2016 – A US air strike on a jihadist training camp near Sabratha, which is located west of Tripoli, kills about fifty people.
• 24 February 2016 – Some 200 jihadists briefly occupy central Sabratha before being ousted by militias.

Offensive on Sirte

• 30 March 2016 – Despite the hostility of rival authorities, the head of Libya’s UN-backed unity government, Fayez al-Sarraj, arrives in Tripoli.
• 12 May 2016 – A vast offensive to recapture Sirte is launched by forces loyal to the unity government.
• 4 June 2016 – Unity government forces say that they have retaken a jihadist air base located south of Sirte.
• 9 June 2016 – Government forces enter the centre of Sirte and besiege the jihadists.
• 23 July 2016 – Loyalist forces say that they have seized a building used by IS to manufacture explosives.
• 1 August 2016 – Sarraj confirms that the US has carried out airstrikes on IS positions in Sirte for the first time. He indicates that the move was at the request of the unity government. A US senior administration official disclosed that American troops will not take part in any ground operations in support of the government.

Air Expert States MH370 was Flown into Water

A world-leading air crash investigator has stated that he believes that flight MH370 was deliberately flown into the sea. The Boeing 777 disappeared while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 people on board in March 2014.

Speaking to Australian news programme 60 Minutes, Canadian Larry Vance disclosed that erosion along the trailing edge of recovered wing parts indicates a controlled landing. Mr Vance was formerly investigator-in-charge for the Canadian Aviation Safety Board and the Transportation Safety Board of Canada. He has led more than 200 air crash investigations. He was the chief author of a report into the 1998 Swissair flight 111 crash off Nova Scotia, Canada, in which 229 people were killed. The force of that crash broke the plane into more than two million pieces. He has told 60 Minutes that an absence of such wreckage was one factor that suggests MH370 landed in controlled circumstances. During the programme, he states that “somebody was flying the airplane at the end of its flight…Somebody was flying the airplane into the water. There is no other alternate theory that you can follow.”

An Australian-led search for the mission jet has focused on an area of the ocean floor 2,000 kilometres (1,242 miles) off Australia’s western coast. The zone was selected based on the theory that the flight was running on autopilot after veering off course. An official co-ordinating the search effort however has told 60 Minutes that the wreckage could be outside the search zone, if someone had been in control of the plane when it crashed. Despite the extensive search of the southern Indian Ocean, no trace of the aircraft was found until the discovery of a wing section, called a flaperon, on Reunion Island off Madagascar one year ago. Mr Vance states that photographs of the recovered flaperon depict a jagged edge, which suggests high-pressure water erosion that could only be caused if someone had been flying the plane into the ocean. He further states that “the force of the water is really the only thing that could make that jagged edge that we see. It wasn’t broken off. If it was broken off, it would be a clean break. You couldn’t even break that thing.” He also disclosed that the fact that the flaperon had apparently been deployed for landing also indicated that someone was piloting the plane when it hit the ocean, stating, “you cannot get the flaperon to extend any other way than if somebody extended it…Somebody would have to select it.”   Peter Foley, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau’s (ATSB) programme director of the search, has also told 60 Minutes that the type of damage the flaperon sustained provided evidence for the controlled landing theory. Mr Foley was asked: “If there was a rogue pilot, isn’t it possible that the plane was taken outside the parameters of the search area?” To which he replied: “Yeah – if you guided the plane or indeed control-ditched the plane, it has an extended range, potentially,” adding, “there is a possibility…somebody (was) in control at the end and we are actively looking for evidence to support that.”

Mr Vance’s theory is just the latest to emerge on what has become one of aviation’s greatest unsolved mysteries. The search for MH370 has been combing a 120,000 sq km area of seabed using underwater drones and sonar equipment from specialist ships. It is expected to draw to a close by the end of the year if it does not find credible new evidence.

Confirmed/Suspected MH370 Debris Found

1. A section of wing called a flaperon, found on Reunion Island in July 2015 was confirmed in September 2015 as debris from MH370.
2. Horizontal stabilizer from tail section was found between Mozambique and Madagascar in December 2015.
3. Stabilizer panel with “No Step” stencil was found in Mozambique in February 2016.
4. Engine cowling bearing Rolls-Royce logo was found in March 2016 in Mossel Bay, South Africa.
5. A fragment of interior door panel was found in Rodrigues Island, Mauritius in March 2016.
6. Fragments, including what appears to be a seat frame, a coat hook and other panels, were found on Nosy Boraha Island in northeast Madagascar.

Italy Ready to Evaluate Any Request for Airspace in US Strikes in Libya

Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti disclosed last week the the Italian government is ready to “positively evaluate” any request for air base or air space use in the US airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) militants in Libya if that would yield “a more rapid and effective end” to the campaign.

The minister made the comments in response to questions in the Chamber of Deputies about the airstrikes, which were launched on the IS stronghold town of Sirte. Pinotti further disclosed that the US military action, which began last week “will be limited in time and area of operation, doesn’t foresee the use of ground forces and is limited to allowing the Libyan forces to successfully defeat the terrorist forces in the area of Sirte,” adding, “the government is ready to positively evaluate any request for use of bases and air space if that would be functional to a more rapid and effective conclusion to the operation underway.” She noted that so far, the US airstrikes have not involved flights over Italian territory however she added that Premier Matteo Renzi’s government “contends that the success of the fighting aimed at eliminating terroristic centres of ISIS (IS) in Libya is of fundamental importance for the security not just of that country, but also of Europe and Italy.”

On Tuesday 2 August, Italy’s foreign minister disclosed that stabilizing Libya would also help control the migrant crisis. Migrant smugglers have exploited conflict and chaos in Libya to launch boats from its long Mediterranean coast carrying hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers and other refugees from Africa and the Middle East to Italian shores.

Premier Renzi has in the passed repeatedly stressed that Italy would support anti-IS action in Libya only if the UN-brokered unity government requested such raids. Earlier this year, the Italian government disclosed that armed US drones could use the Sigonella base if needed to protect US military forces in anti-IS strikes in Libya however it stressed that it would not allow the Sicilian base to be used for offensive purposes. US President Barack Obama authorized the Pentagon to open a new, more persistent front against IS insurgents in Libya after the internationally backed government asked for help with precision targeting inside Sirte.

Sharp Increase in Police Killings in Rio Ahead of Games

Amnesty International reported on 2 August that a sharp increase in police killings has effectively cast “a shadow of death” over Rio de Janeiro as the city and country prepares to host the Olympic Games, which are due to begin on 5 August.

The rights group has reported that the number of people killed by police in the crime-plagued Brazilian city has more than doubled between April and June 2016 from a year ago. Citing state security figures, Amnesty disclosed that police in Rio de Janeiro killed 49 people 25 people in April; 40 in May and 49 in June, adding that since 2009, when Rio won the bid to host the Summer Olympic Games, police have killed more than 2,600 people in the city.

In a statement, Atila Roque, director at Amnesty International Brazil, disclosed that “just when we thought the levels of police brutality could not get any more shocking, they do,” adding that “a shadow of death has set over Rio de Janeiro and it seems the authorities only car about how pretty the Olympic Part looks.”

Recent attacks claimed by extremists groups in Europe, coupled with the arrest of a cell with purported links to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in Brazil in late July, have added to security concerns during the Olympics. While organizers have responded to these concerns by increasing the number of soldiers and police patrolling the event to nearly 90,000, Amnesty has disclosed that poor training and excessive use of lethal force by police are pat of a misguided approach to public security in the South American country.

Speaking recently at a news conference, Renata Neder, a human rights adviser for Amnesty, disclosed that “the authorities are not looking into preventive measures to tackle and to curb the executions by police,” adding that “there are specific cases of people bing killed in operations for the Games.”