Democracy in Brazil does not seem to be in danger despite the upheavals of 8 January and it is highly unlikely that a coup d’état supported by the Brazilian army will take place in the coming months despite the democratic concerns expressed internationally. Jair Bolsonaro’s announcement in a newspaper on 14 February that he will return to Brazil in March, while raising fears of further splits in an already divided population, should not have a significant short or medium-term impact on Lula Da Silva’s government.
On 30 October 2022, Leftist Lula Da Silva, who had already held the post twice from 2003 to 2011, was elected for a third time President of Brazil by defeating the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro with only 50.90% of the vote. Jair Bolsonaro had not admitted his defeat and sowed doubt in the electoral process, as his supporters demonstrated around the country. Nevertheless, he never asked the Supreme Court or Congress to intervene to overturn the results. Some time afterwards, on 26 December, the police arrested George Washington, suspected of having planted a bomb to commit an attack near Brasilia airport, a few days before the presidential inauguration. This situation worried observers who feared that the inauguration of Lula Da Silva on 1 January 2023 would be disrupted, or even that there was a deeper plot. No disruptive events were observed on that day, apart from the absence of Jair Bolsonaro himself who refused to participate in the transfer of power by flying to Florida (US) at the end of December.
Nevertheless, on 8 January, several hundred demonstrators supporting the former farright president invaded and degraded high places of power in the capital such as the Congress, the Presidential Palace and the Supreme Court. The demonstrators later asked the army to intervene because they felt despoiled by the elections. The ease with which the protesters were able to act raised fears of collusion on the part of the security services. Quickly after what happened, nearly 1,500 people were arrested by the authorities, including several high ranking officials, such as Ibaneis Rocha, the governor of Brasilia, Anderson Torres, former head of Brasília’s public security, and Colonel Fábio Augusto Vieira, police commander. On 11 February, Major Flávio Silvestre de Alencar, Colonel Jorge Eduardo Naime, Captain Josiel Pereira Cesar and Lieutenant Rafael Pereira Martins, all involved in the infrastructure security during the riots, were also arrested. Lula Da Silva had publicly attacked Jair Bolsonaro, accusing him of being involved in the outbursts. The latter denied any responsibility. The former president is known for its close relationship with the police and especially the army, which is favourable to him and has played a large role in the country’s history, and still has influence even after the end of the military dictatorship in 1985. This proximity has led to fears that the military may become involved, as some of the pro-Bolsonaro protesters asked the army to intervene. These riots shocked the international community but also the Brazilians themselves, 76% of whom said they were against these excesses. The population as a whole remains in favour of safeguarding democratic institutions. There is no indication of a possible coup, as the army has even ignored calls from protesters to intervene in the country’s politics.
On 14 February, Jair Bolsonaro indicated that he wanted to return to Brazil in March to resume politics, raising fears of a new surge of demonstrations and tension in an already politically divided Brazil. But the far-right politician should expect legal proceedings from the authorities on his return, as the Supreme Court included him in the list of suspects for its investigations into the uprisings. Moreover, the former president is accused of corruption in multiple cases, including of crime against the indigenous people, whom he did not protect during his mandate. Indeed, on 6 February, Marina Silva, Environment Minister, declared that former President Jair Bolsonaro should be investigated for genocide, while the authorities declared a state of medical emergency in the Yanomami reserve, near the border with Venezuela. Indigenous people under Jair Bolsanaro’s term have suffered from a lack of governmental security involvement that has led to an increase in violence, sometimes resulting in rape or murder from criminal gangs. These additional charges, despite his relative popularity, could well harm his ability to credibly lead an opposition to Lula Da Silva.
The first-round vote to elect Brazil’s new president will take place 2 October 2022. Though there are a number of contenders in the race, only either incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro or former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva have a realistic chance of winning. Brazilians face a stark ideological choice between right-wing leader Bolsonaro and leftist candidate Lula. Other South American countries have found themselves in similar situations in recent months as they each took their turn at going to the polls.
It still remains unclear whether Brazil will become part of the new “pink tide” sweeping the continent, as Peru and Chile did in 2021 with the elections of Pedro Castillo and Gabriel Boric, and then most recently Colombia did in 2022 when citizens elected the country’s first ever leftist president. It looks likely that Lula will be victorious, though this is not certain. A Genial/Quaest poll released on 7 September showed that Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro has narrowed from 12 percentage points to 10. Lula has always led in the opinion polls, though how significant his lead is has varied. It has been fairly consistently narrowing in recent months. Interestingly, according to The Economist, the 44% of Brazilians who get their political news from television back Lula by 52% to 25%, the 25% whose main source is social media prefer Bolsonaro over Lula by 47% to 37%.
Lula is a former union leader, who was sentenced to nearly 10 years for corruption in 2017. He was released in 2019 and his conviction was annulled on procedural grounds. He represents the Workers’ Party (PT). During his time as president, he oversaw a commodities boom and a period of significant economic growth. He implemented several big social changes, exemplified by his socioeconomic program Bolsa Familia. It was a stipend awarded to families in absolute poverty. According to the Fundação Getúlio Vargas, one sixth of Brazil’s strides in poverty reduction can be attributed to this program. Bolsonaro emphasises what he calls “traditional family values” and defends gun rights. His economic policies in the past have been geared towards reducing state intervention in the economy. However, in the lead-up to the election, Bolsonaro’s government have implemented a series of economic measures, most notably a 50 percent increase in welfare payments for Brazil’s poorest, that are seen as an attempt to win votes.
Lula’s past record shows what his likely actions in office would be. His senior advisors told Reuters that he will likely appoint Geraldo Alckmin, his centrist running mate, to run economic policy. A particularly important issue for Lula to address which impacts not only Brazil but also the rest of the world, is deforestation. He advocates that it is “imperative to defend the Amazon” and put a stop to the “policy of destruction” set out by Bolsonaro. Fires in the Amazon surged to the highest number since 2019 in August, as it is expected that Lula will be elected and then crack down on logging.
The presidential campaign has already been violent. In July, a PT official was shot dead at his birthday party by a policeman shouting that Lula was a crook and all PT supporters should die. According to the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, political threats, assaults, kidnappings and homicides have risen 335% in the past three years. There are concerns that Bolsonaro will not accept the results of the election if he is defeated. The possibility of a coup taking place is being considered by observers. In August, police raided the homes of several businessmen who had allegedly been discussing the possibility of planning one. Overall, it is thought to be unlikely. Vinicius de Carvalho of King’s College London says that the armed forces have evolved since 1964 and will be prepared to work with a new government. It is more likely that Bolsonaro will encourage significant street protests, alleging that the election was fraudulent.
In August 2019, reports from NASA and NGOs drew the world’s attention devastating forest fires in the Amazon rainforest in Brazil. The fires have shed light on the plight of the indigenous communities of the rainforest, who are hit by both the fires and the political circumstances in the region.
The Amazon fires resulted from a rise in illegal land grabbing and logging. Loggers in the area use a technique known as “slash and burn”, a land-clearing method that involves the cutting and burning of plants. The land is cleared in order to make room for agriculture, livestock, logging and mining. The technique leads to increased deforestation and carries a high risk of forest fires in the dry season. The large increase of the fires and deforestation in the Amazon increased the threat of global warming and related environmental issues.
The majority of the Amazon rainforest lies in Brazil. In 2000, a plan by the Brazilian government to protect the rainforest resulted in the gradual decline of deforestation. However, when President Jair Bolsonaro came into power in 2019, his administration reversed course on these environmental policies. By summer 2019, the deforestation reached its greatest height in over a decade.
The encroachment of illegal loggers and mining companies has particularly affected the indigenous populations of the Amazon, amplifying the persecution they have suffered since deforestation began in earnest during the 1980s. In 1988, the Brazilian constitution was re-written following the end of decades military rule. The new constitution, which reflected the visions of a democratically run government, automatically granted the indigenous people permanent possession of the lands they traditionally occupied. Unfortunately, indigenous lands that have been granted demarcation still face frequent illegal invasions by settlers and mining and logging companies.
During his campaign for the presidency, Bolsonaro’s platform showed little regard for the indigenous population of Brazil. His key policies included revoking the protected status of indigenous reserves, opening the land for large-scale mining and agribusiness. Since taking office, the Bolsonaro administration has made enacted some of these campaign promises. The administration has made significant changes to the environmental policies that were seen to be “suffocating the economy”. One of Bolsonaro’s first acts as president was to shift the power to regulate and create indigenous reserves, moving this power from the National Indian Foundation Agency to the Agriculture Ministry. As a result, throughout 2019, indigenous populations faced increased persecutions and attacks on their land.
Bolsonaro’s policy changes have correlated with an increase in deforestation and attacks on indigenous people. Illegal loggers and land grabbers continue to encroach on indigenous lands in their attempts to clear trees in the Amazon. Despite reports of these actions, the government denies their policy changes have resulted in the activities of the illegal loggers.
In January 2019, the administration vowed to put a stop to the illegal practice. However, a month later, NGO Reporter Brasil, found that 14 fully protected indigenous territories are under attack from landgrabbers and illegal loggers, with no visible government protection. In the year that has passed since Reporter Brasil’s findings, there no signs of slowing.
The indigenous people are facing increasing rage, hate, prejudice and intolerance from surrounding areas, leading to several deaths. In 2019, ten indigenous people were killed by groups conducting illegal encroachment. Seven among the ten killed were indigenous leaders working to protect the forest and non-contact tribes within the rainforest. Despite the continuous calls to halt increasing violence against the indigenous people, there has been no real effort from the government to protect or support them.
The government’s inaction, and the Bolsonaro administration’s attitude towards the indigenous community suggest it is unlikely that they will get the reassurances they need. It will most likely take international pressure to stop the killing and persecution of the indigenous people and the destruction of the Amazon rainforest.
Brazil’s Senate voted on 31 August to remove President Dilma Rousseff from office for manipulating the budget, effectively putting an end to the thirteen years in power of her left-wing Worker’s Party. Ms Rousseff has denied the charges. Michel Temer has been sworn in as president and will serve the remainder of Ms Rousseff’s term until 1 January 2019. He has promised to boost Brazil’s economy, which is going through its longest and deepest recession in the past quarter of a century. His critics have already warned that he plans to cut many of the popular social programmes that had been introduced by the Workers’ Party.
Sixty-one senators voted in favour of her dismissal and twenty against, effectively meeting the two-thirds majority needed to remove her from the presidency.
During his first cabinet meeting since the vote, Mr Temer disclosed that his inauguration marked a “new era.” The centre-right PMDB party politician had been serving as acting president during the impeachment proceedings. During the meeting, which was broadcast live on television, he asked his ministers to “vigorously defend” the government from accusations that Ms Rousseff’s dismissal amounted to a coup d’état, adding, “we can’t leave one accusation unanswered.” He also told ministers to work closely with the Congress in order to rive the Brazilian economy.
The dismissal of Ms Rousseff has caused a rift between Brazil and three left-wing South American governments, who shortly after the vote was announced criticized the move. Brazil and Venezuela recalled each other’s ambassadors, while Brazilian envoys to Bolivia and Ecuador have also ben ordered home. In the wake of the vote, anti-Temer demonstrations were held in a number of cities, including Brasilia.
While Ms Rousseff lost the impeachment battle, she did win a separate Senate vote that had sought to ban her from public office for eight years. Pledging to appeal against her dismissal, she told her supporters, “I will not say goodbye to you. I am certain I can say: ‘See you soon,’” adding, “they have convicted an innocent person and carried out a parliamentary coup.” In May, Ms Rousseff was suspended after the Senate voted to go ahead with the impeachment process. She was accused of moving funds between government budgets, which under Brazilian law is illegal. Her critics stated that she was trying to plug deficit holes in popular social programmes in a bid to boost her chances of being re-elected in 2014. Ms Rousseff fought the allegations, arguing that her right-wing rivals had been trying to remove her from office ever since her re-election, adding that she was being ousted because she had allowed a wide-ranging corruption investigation to go ahead, which resulted in many high-profile politicians being charged. Senators who voted on Wednesday in favour to remove her from office have disclosed that Ms Rousseff and the Workers’ Party are the ones who were corrupt, adding that they needed to go.
The Brazilian Senate has voted to hold an impeachment trial of suspended President Dilma Rousseff, who has been accused of breaking the budget law.
Following a marathon debate, which ended early on Wednesday, the Senate voted 59 to 21 in favour of going ahead with the trial against Ms Rousseff, which is likely to be held at the end of this month. A two-thirds majority is needed in the final vote following the trial, which is likely to take place in the week after the Summer Olympics closing ceremony. Ms Rousseff was suspended in May by the Senate over alleged illegal accounting practices, which she says were common practice under previous administrations. She has been accused of spending money without congressional approval and taking out unauthorized loans from state banks to boost the national budget ahead of the 2014 election, when she was re-elected. Her allies in the Workers’ Party have pointed out that many of the members of the Brazilian Congress who have accused her are implicated in corruption cases themselves.
While Ms Rousseff is not facing corruption charges in Brazil’s wide-ranging scandal around the state oil company, Petrobras, she has been tainted by the Scandal, in which her Workers’ Party is accused of lining its campaign war chests with some of the missing money. If Ms Rousseff is removed from office, the interim president, her former running mate Michel Temer, will remain in the presidential chair until the next elections, due to take place in 2018. Ms Rousseff has accused him of orchestrating a political coup against her.