MS Risk Blog

France Votes to Extend State of Emergency by Six Months

France’s National Assembly voted this month in order to extend the state of emergency for six months. The move follows the attack in Nice in which 84 people were killed and scores injured when a lorry was driven into crowds. It also comes after President Francois Hollande stated earlier this month, and prior to the attack in Nice, that he did not intend to extend the state of emergency beyond 26 July.

The latest extension effectively brings the state of emergency until the end of January 2017. It is the fourth extension that France’s parliament has proposed and the move must be approved by the Senate. The last extension was to cover the Euro 2016 football tournament and the end of the Tour de France cycling race.

As France continues to grapple with the growing threat from jihadist militants, Prime Minister Manuel Valls has warned that France must expect more deadly attacks despite precautions taken by his government. Speaking at the debate in the National Assembly, Valls stated that France would have to learn to live with the threat. He went on to say that “even if these words are hard to say, its my duty to do so…There will be other attacks and there will be other innocent people killed. We must not become accustomed, we must never become accustomed, to the horror, but we must learn to live with this menace.”

The state of emergency was initially brought in after terror attacks occurred in Paris in November 2015, in which 130 people were killed. That attack was claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. The emergency measures give the police additional powers to carry out searches and to place people under house arrest.

Questions however have emerged over what impact the emergency measures have had on the country. A recent commission of inquiry found that the state of emergency was only having a “limited impact” on improving security. It further questioned the deployment of between 6,000 and 7,000 soldiers to protect schools, synagogues, department stores and other sensitive sites.

French Authorities Identify Leader of 13 November Terror Attacks.

French authorities have disclosed that they have identified the commander of the 13 November 2015 Islamist militant attacks in Paris. They have further disclosed that Abdelhamid Abaaoud, who was cornered and killed by police just days later, played a lesser role in the attacks.

Newly published official documents cite testimony by Bernard Bajolet, France’s head of external security, to a closed-door parliamentary inquiry into France’s anti-terrorism activities on 24 May. Bajolet however did not identify who authorities now think was the commander, nor did he disclose whether the person is alive or dead.

Abaaoud was initially described as the leader of the machinegun and suicide bomb attacks on the Bataclan music hall, Paris bars and restaurants, and the Stade de France, in which 130 people were killed. During the inquiry, Bajolet is quoted as stating, “it is true that Abaaoud was a coordinate, but he was not the commander…We know who the commander is, but I will stay discreet on that point,” adding, “we now have a good knowledge of the organogram…We have made progress on these subjects, we therefore have an idea of the identity of the commander.”

Last week, Parliament published recommendations of the inquiry, and on Tuesday 12 July, it released its full report.

EU Referendum: MPs Will Debate a Second Vote

It has been announced that British politicians will debate holding a second EU referendum after a petition, which was set up by a Brexiter, triggered a Commons discussion. More than four million people have signed the petition.

The debate in the House of Commons has been scheduled for 5 September. While Incoming Prime Minister Theresa May has already insisted that “Brexit means Brexit,” the Petitions Committee has ruled that because of the number of people who have signed the petition, the issue should be discussed. The House of Commons has disclosed that “the Committee has decided that the huge number of people signing this petition means that it should be debated by MPs,” adding that “the Petitions Committee would like to make clear that, in scheduling this debate, they are not supporting the call for a second referendum…The debate will allow MPs to put forward a range of views on behalf of their constituents. At the end of the debate, a Government minister will respond to the points raised.”

The petition was set up by Brexiter Oliver Healey a month before the referendum took place, when he thought that his side was going to lose the vote. It states, “we the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based (on) a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.”

French Missions Close in Turkey Over Security Fears

On 13 July, French diplomatic missions in Turkey’s two main cities closed until further notice and cancelled planned events to mark France’s 14 July National Day due to security concerns.

The French consulate general in Istanbul had been due to hold a reception on Wednesday evening to mark national Day, while French mission in Ankara and the Aegean coastal city of Izmir had planned to hold events on Thursday. However on Wednesday, a statement issued by the French Embassy in Ankara disclosed that “for security reasons, July 14^th receptions planned in Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir are cancelled,” adding that it had informed the Turkish authorities of the decision and was in close contact with them. The statement also indicated that “the embassy of France in Ankara, as well as the consulate general in Istanbul will be closed from Wednesday July 13, 1 PM (1100 BST), until further notice.” Earlier in the day, the consulate general in Istanbul indicated that there was information suggesting a “serious threat against plans for the celebration of the July 14 national holiday in Turkey.”

Turkey is facing multiple threats, including from militants belonging to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, who have been blamed for a triple suicide bombing at Istanbul’s main airport several weeks ago, which killed 45 people and wounded hundreds. The attack was the deadliest in a series of bombings that have occurred this year in the NATO member state.

UK to Review Security in Wake of Nice Attack

UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that Britain’s security measures are being reviewed in the wake of the attack in Nice.

As armed police stood guard at the French Embassy in London, Mrs May stated that the nation “must redouble our efforts to defeat these brutal murderers who want to destroy our way of life.” She continued to state that “the threat level here in the United Kingdom is already at severe – that means a terrorist attack is highly likely,” adding, “senior officials today will be reviewing what more we can do to ascertain whether there is any further action to take.” She also stated that the capital stands “shoulder-to-shoulder” with France as it has done in the past and asserted “we must work with our partners around the world to stand up for our values and for our freedom.”

The National Police Chiefs’ Council has revealed that forces are reviewing the policing of large public events over the next seven days in order “to ensure the appropriate security is in place.”

Meanwhile Germany has also stated that it is increasing its border controls at airports as well as road and rail crossings into France. Prime Minister Charles Michel has stated that security is also being increased in Belgium ahead of a national holiday on 21 July.

On Thursday 14 July, at least 84 people, including several children, were killed and dozens more hurt after a man drove a lorry into crowds who had gathered to celebrate Bastille Day along the famous Promenade Des Anglais in the French seaside city.