MS Risk Blog

Japan and Russia have never signed a peace treaty since WW2; Is history reigniting a geopolitical contention?

  Anxiety hovers over Japanese leadership as Russia has moved anti-ship missiles to the disputed Kuril Islands in the Pacific in November 2016. These missiles provide effective protection from landing operations and carrier-based aircraft strikes. The Russian move comes oddly at a time when the Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Japan later this month. Perhaps a retrospect in history and analysis of contemporary geopolitics will help understand better the contention between the two countries.

What is the dispute over Kuril Islands?

Under the 1855 Treaty of Shimoda between Russia and Japan, the islands of Iturup, Kunashiri, Shikotan and Habomai had belonged to Japan. Post WW2, these islands became parts of the-then Soviet Union, although Japan never recognized the Soviet authority over the islands. In the 1956 Treaty of Peace with Japan, there was a commitment to transfer two southern Kuril Islands to Japan, which was also not executed because it was not clear what conditions were essential for the transfer and who bore sovereignty over the islands. Thus the two countries never signed a peace treaty.

Why are the Kuril Islands important?

The Russian annexure of Kuril Islands post WW2 had made Japan feel vulnerable about its northern mainland. Japan feared that the Soviet empire would expand and invade Japan’s north. As a result, Japan emphasized its military presence in Hokkaido, although the fear of a potential invasion had subsided since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Recent developments in the islands have, however, reignited this contention between Japan and Russia that warrant looking into why these islands are important to the two countries.

Japan’s strategic interest in the islands is because they are rich with natural resources, which is vital to a resource-starved Japan. Historically, to the people of Hokkaido, the idea of Japanese hold of the islands is a matter of honor.

Russia’s strategic interests in the islands include:

• Russian Navy’s safe access through the Sea of Okhotsk to the Pacific;
• Russian military’s presence to strengthen its involvement in East Asian affairs;
• The islands and its territorial waters are rich with minerals including offshore hydrocarbon deposits, gold, silver, iron, titanium and rhenium;
• The islands are able to supply geothermal energy to meet Russian’s annual heating needs;

What have been the latest developments on this dispute?

Russia’s military developments in the islands have appeared at a time when Japan has been moving its focus to the south to deal with China’s maritime expansion. In the hope that the two countries could come to terms about the dispute, Japan is keen on incentivizing Russia with economic relations particularly when sanctions on Russia for its actions in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, low oil price and high inflation have been taking its toll on the Russia economy. Given the strategic interests in the islands, the gains for Russia from economic relations with Japan, however, seem too inadequate to give up the islands. Also in September this year, when asked if Russia is ready to consider giving up one of Kuril Islands to reciprocate for a greater economic cooperation with Japan, Putin said, “We do not trade territories”.

What’s in it for the West?

The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent trip to the U.S. to visit Pearl Harbor is perhaps a testament to the strengthening relations between the U.S. and Japan today. Abe is the first Japanese premier to visit Pearl Harbor. It is hard to infer if this gesture is manifested as an ally subtly seeking the U.S. intervention in Kuril dispute. Russia’s increasing militarization in the Pacific and Japan’s continued support of the Western sanctions against Russia are, however, likely to generate U.S. interest on this matter, although the U.S. president elect Donald Trump, during his election campaign, have threatened to pull U.S. troops out of Japan.

So, where does it leave Japan and Russia now?

The Russian President Vladimir Putin is due in Japan later this month. While the visit is intended toward discussing economic ties and signing a peace treaty, Russia’s firm stance so far on the territorial dispute will most likely sustain. However, some minor economic deals between the two countries are likely.

SECURITY MESSAGE FOR U.S. CITIZENS: KINSHASA (DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO), TAKE PRECAUTIONS DECEMBER 17-19

The U.S. Embassy informs U.S. citizens in the DRC that U.S. government employees have been instructed to limit their movements to and within Gombe starting on Saturday, December 17. Employees have also been asked to remain in their residences from Saturday at 23:00 until Sunday, December 18 at 05:00.

Gambia’s Jammeh Rejects Presidential Election Results a Week After Admitting Defeat

In a shocking move, Gambian leader Yahya Jammeh on 9 December rejected the result of the presidential election held earlier this month, a week after he admitted defeat. He has called for new elections to be held and the ruling party has announced that it will challenge the results of the 1 December election at the Supreme Court. They have until 13 December to submit a challenge to the court.

The announcement, which was made on state television, throws the future of the West African country into doubt after the unexpected election result ended Jammeh’s 22-year rule. Last week, he had conceded defeat on state TV, in a move that resulted in celebrations over the defeat of a government that human rights groups accused of detaining, torturing and killing opponents during the president’s rule. Opposition leader Adama Barrow had been announced as the winner of the election by the country’s electoral commission. However on Saturday Jammeh has since stated that “after a thorough investigation, I have decided to reject the outcome of the recent election. I lament serious and unacceptable abnormalities, which have reportedly transpired during the electoral process,” adding, “I recommend fresh and transparent elections, which will be officiated by a god-fearing and independent electoral commission.” On the ground sources have reported that overnight the capital city Banjul remained quiet, however there was a particular nervousness about the president’s statement that he would deal harshly with any troublemakers who took to the streets.

International reaction to his statement has also been swift, with the United States State Department saying in a statement that Jammeh’s rejection of the results was an egregious attempt to undermine a credible election and remain illegitimately in power. Meanwhile Senegal’s foreign minister disclosed on Saturday that Gambian authorities have refused entry to the chair of regional body Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Ellen Sirleaf Johnson, in a move that has dampened hopes for a political solution after President Yahya Jammeh rejected the results of the election he lost on 1 December. Sirleaf Johnson had hoped to put back on track Gambia’s first democratic transition to power in over fifty years, however those plans appeared thwarted on Saturday when her plane was denied landing access at Banjul. Senegalese foreign minister Mankeur Ndiaye disclosed “Johnson Sirleaf was supposed to fly in today, but Jammeh said ‘not at the moment.’” It was not clear if the plane had already taken off.   Also on Saturday the African Union (AU) weighed in on Yahya Jammeh’s refusal to accept the 1 December presidential election results, calling his statement “null and void.” Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma disclosed that “the Chairperson of the Commission strongly urges President Yahya Jammeh to facilitate a peaceful and orderly transition and transfer of power.” She also called on Gambia’s security forces to remain neutral. The United Nations Security Council on Saturday condemned Gambia President Yahya Jammeh’s rejection of election results announced last week that saw him lose power after 22 years. The Council has urged all parties to refrain from violence. In a statement, the Council disclosed “(Security Council members) called on him to respect the choice of the sovereign People of The Gambia, as he did on 2 December 2016, and to transfer, without condition and undue delay, power to the President-elect, Mr Adama Barrow.”

The head of Barrow’s transition team has disclosed that the president-elect and his staff members are safe. Mai Ahmad Fatty went on to say “we are consulting on what to do, but as far as we are concerned, the people have voted,” adding “we will maintain peace and stability and not let anyone provoke us into violence.” What is certain is that Jammeh’s shock announcement will present an unexpected and severe challenge to the incoming Barrow administration, which is already grappling with how to take the reins of power and deal with an army that for the past two decades has been loyal to the same present. While last week, army chief General Ousman Badjie had called Barrow in order to pledge his allegiance, diplomatic sources have disclosed that they expect a faction from Jammeh’s Jola ethnic group to remain loyal to him.

Official election results from the electoral commission gave Barow 45.5 percent of the vote against Jammeh’s 36.7 percent. The Independent Electoral Commission however later corrected the results to give Barrow a slimmer lead with 43.3 percent of votes, or fewer than 20,000 more than Jammeh.

EU Planning 5 Billion Euro Defense Fund in Wake of Trump and Brexit

The European Union (EU) has unveiled its biggest defense funding and research plan in more than a decade in a bid to reverse billions in cuts and in turn to send a message to US President-elect Donald Trump that it wants to pay for its own security.

The main proposal is an investment fund for defense that would allow EU governments that pay in to also borrow from it. In a move to revitalize defense cooperation, the European Commission has proposed a 5 billion euro (US $5.3 billion) fund in order to let governments club together to purchase new helicopters and planes to lower costs. EU officials have disclosed that another plan is to let the EU’s common budget and its development bank invest in military research. This move would open the door to new drones, cyber warfare systems and other hi-tech gear. Some EU officials have conceded that bigger EU countries, like Germany which has one of the world’s largest defense industries, stand to gain most from the Commission’s proposals with smaller nations being at a greater risk of losing business.

European Commission Vice President Jyri Katainen has disclosed “this is not about an EU army, this is not about spending on the military instead of social security…We face multiplying threats and we must act,” stressing that all assets developed would belong to national governments.

Currently no details on how the bloc plans to persuade member states to move away from the current system, where many pursue their own defense projects favouring local manufactures and duplicating efforts, have been released. Accoridng to European Commission data, the bloc has nineteen types of armoured infantry fighting vehicle, compared with one in the United States. Wasted funds amount to 25 billion euros a year.

Colombian Senate Approves New Peace Accord with FARC

The Colombian Senate has approved a revised peace accord with the country’s largest rebel group, the FARC after the first agreement was narrowly rejected in a referendum in October 2016. The revised agreement will now go to the lower house of Congress for approval.

President Juan Manuel Santos has disclosed that the new proposals are stronger and take into account the changes that were demanded by opponents of the initial scheme. Those opponents however, who are led by former President Alvaro Uribe, have already indicated that the revised deal is still too lenient on FARC leaders.

The peace accord is aimed at ending an armed conflict that has killed more than 260,000 people over five decades. The two sides reached an agreement earlier this year after four years of talks that were held in the Cuban capital, Havana.