MS Risk Blog

New MI6 Chief Warns of Terrorist Threat to UK

This month, the new head of MI6 disclosed that the scale of the terrorism threat to the United Kingdom is “unprecedented.”

According to Alex Younger, UK intelligence and security services have disrupted twelve terrorist plots since June 2013, adding that many of the threats came from ungoverned spaces in the Middle East – namely Iraq and Syria. He further warned that “hybrid warfare,” which included cyber attacks and subverting democracy, was becoming an “increasingly dangerous phenomenon,” noting, “the risks at stake are profound and represent a fundamental threat to our sovereignty…They should be a concern to all those who share democratic values.”

In his first public speech since taking up the post of “C,” Mr Younger warned of the impact of Russia’s alliance with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in casting all opponents of President Assad as terrorists. He disclosed, “I believe the Russian conduct in Syria – allied with that of Assad’s discredited regime – will, if they do not change course, provide a tragic example of the perils of forfeiting legitimacy.” He went on to say that “in defining as a terrorist anyone who opposes a brutal regime they alienate precisely that group that has to be onside if the extremists are to be defeated,” adding “we cannot be safe from the threats that emanate from that land unless the civil war is brought to an end.”

Speaking to journalists at MI6 headquarters in London, Mr Younger disclosed that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group had exploited the situation in Syria to fortify its stronghold in the region and to wage a war on the West, adding that IS had a “highly organized external attack planning structure” that was plotting attacks against the UK and its allies “without ever having to leave Syria.”

In describing the risks that MI6 agents face in the field, Mr Younger disclosed that “encountering terrorism, some of our agents operate in the most dangerous and hostile environments on earth,” adding, “they know that the result of being identified as an MI6 agent could be their death. But they do what they do because they believe in protecting their country – and religion – from the evil that Daesh (IS) and other terrorist organizations present.”

Since August 2014 the threat level for international terrorism in the UK has been severe, effectively meaning that an attack is highly likely. There are five threat levels – low, moderate, substantial, severe and critical – which are set up by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre.

EU Strikes Visa Deal with Ukraine and Georgia

This month, diplomats and MPs struck a deal to end an internal EU dispute, which will result in the EU soon letting Ukrainians and Georgians visit the bloc without needed a visa. The dispute had been holding up the promised measures.

Agreement on a mechanism to suspend such visa waivers in emergencies has effectively ended mounting embarrassment for those EU leaders who felt that the bloc was reneging on pledges to former Soviet states that it has promised to help as they try to move out from Moscow’s shadow. The move came after the European Council President warned that the EU was risking its credibility by failing to reward Georgia and Ukraine for painful reforms. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has since hailed the move as “encouraging news from Brussels.”

The prospect of easier travel to Western European countries has been used by governments in Kiev and Tbilisi in order to win popular backing for painful, EU-sponsored reforms. However EU leaders got cold feet about opening doors to 45 million Ukrainians after the public backlash that followed last year’s refugee crisis in Europe. Furthermore, facing strong challenges from anti-immigration parties in elections next year, leading powers France and Germany demanded strong controls before any visa agreement was signed. Late-night talks have since resulted in the European Parliament conceding that governments can reimpose visa requirements quickly, with MPs’ approval.

Georgia, which has only 5 million citizens, has long been seen as being ready for visa liberalization. However many believe that its failure to achieve such as agreement has been due to the EU’s hesitation over Ukraine, which is bigger, closer and currently stuck in conflict with Russia. A similar plan to ease travel for Turkey’s 75 million citizens, which is part of a deal whereby Ankara has helped the EU shut out Syrians and other people seeking asylum, has added to political sensitivities in Brussels about the issue. The process with Turkey has been frozen because of Ankara’s failure to fulfil all the EU conditions, coupled with anger across Europe at Turkey’s crackdown on opponents following a coup attempt in July.

The bloc has disclosed that any new visa waivers can only come into force after the EU has increased an emergency brake to suspend any free-travel deals in emergencies. However talks on exactly how that “snap-back” mechanism would work have dragged on for months. It will now allow the executive European Commission or a majority of EU states to suspend swiftly a country’s visa exemption for nine months if there is a sharp rise in its citizens overstaying their permitted time in the EU making multiple asylum requests or other problem for th European. The EU would be able to extend the suspension period for a further eighteen months in some cases, however through amore complex procedure that would also give a say to the European Parliament.

UN Launches Record $2.7 Billion Aid for Sahel Region

The United Nations has reported that poverty, conflict and climate change will leave fifteen million people across Africa’s Sahel region in need of life-saving aid next year.

The UN has now launched a record UD $2.7 billion humanitarian appeal for the region in 2017. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), around 40 percent of the money will be used in order to help some seven million people in Nigeria, who have been affected by Boko Haram’s seven-year insurgency. OCHA has increased its appeal for eight countries in the semi-arid band that stretches from Senegal to Chad more than tenfold in as many years, however each year the funding has fallen short. This year’s US $2 billion appeal had been less than half-funded to date. According to the UN’s regional humanitarian coordinator, Toby Lanzer, “the lack of funding this year has worsened the humanitarian needs of 11 million people in the Lake Chad Basin, where the crisis is most acute.” Figures released by the OCHA have indicated that one in six people across the Sahel region are hungry, while in many communities throughout the region, a fifth of children under the age of five are malnourished. Aid workers say that in addition to violence involving militant groups, climate change is also becoming a major factor behind the growing number of vulnerable people across the region. This is due to increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns, which disrupt local food production. Arame Tall, Africa regional coordinator for the UN-led Global Framework for Climate Services, states, “we are adapting by equipping farmers and policymakers with climate information and early warning forecasts, and being prepared not just weeks, but months and years ahead.”

The United Nations has also reported that the vast number of vulnerable people, and those who have been forced from their homes by violence across the Sahel region, some 4.5 million, is fuelling migration to Europe and driving more young men to join militant groups. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that this year, Nigeria has been the main country of origin for migrants arriving in Italy by sea. IOM data shows that at least 34,000 Nigerians have crossed from Libya so far in 2016, up from 22,200 last year. According to Anne Moltes, regional director of the peacebuilding group Interpeace, “families and communities are separated and split, education is disrupted and dreams of success dashed,” adding, “if there is no structure, young men leave to find figures of authority elsewhere.”

Hyperinflation in Venezuela: recent events and current outlook

December was not a good month for the Venezuelan people. The power political reverberations of former President Hugo Chavez’ death have reached a new climax in the last month of 2016. A widespread financial crisis sparked by governmental mismanagement; runaway hyperinflation and a severe drop in oil prices has ultimately led to major civil unrest and public violence. The current situation led the UK Foreign Office and US State Department to issue travel warnings for a country which has not been in this much turmoil for a long time. The month started on a bad note after Venezuela was expelled from MERCOSUR, the regional trading bloc. Following a decade in which strong growth and leftist policies across South America led the bloc to embrace Venezuela, the suspension now underscores the ideological split in a region struggling with plummeting commodity prices and weakening economies. It further isolates the administration of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who is accused of exacerbating the political, economic and humanitarian crises battering the country.

Meanwhile Maduro sent his Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriquez to Buenos Aires to attend a bloc meeting. Being expelled, Rodriquez was physically prevented from entering a meeting room, which led to the Minister becoming ‘gravely hurt’, according to Maduro. The removal of MERCOSUR put the Bolivar, the national currency, under increased pressure. Devaluation and soaring inflation led to the issuing of new higher-value notes. A backpack full of cash is often required to pay bills at a restaurant or supermarket. The central bank said that six new bills ranging from 500 to 20,000 bolivars would come into circulation halfway through the month. The largest note used to be 100 bolivars and worth about two US cents. Over the past month, the currency has tumbled by 60% against the dollar on the black market. In order to facilitate the use of higher denominations, Maduro pulled the 100 bolivar note creating a national cash shortage on top of the brutal economic crisis. After two days of unrest over the measure – including one death and dozens of shops ransacked – Maduro postponed the measure until 2 January. That helped stem violence, though there were still reports of more lootings in other parts of the country. The border between Venezuela and Colombia was closed for 72 hours in order to prevent the flow of cash out of the country. The Venezuelan crisis has also strained its relationships with allied countries and businesses.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that it has asked the Venezuelan government to take measures to protect Chinese people and their property. Multiple Chinese-run business have suffered from looting. Ford Motor Company has halted auto production in Venezuela and will not resume it until April: “It is a measure to adjust production to demand in the country.” The pressures on the Venezuelan people and economy are not likely to alleviate soon, although it is a realistic possibility to see an extension of the current rise in oil prices in the coming year, perhaps the country’s only hope amid a folly of bad news.

Hate Attacks on the Rise in the US in Wake of Presidential Election

A United States hate-attack monitoring group has disclosed that it has documented 437 cases of intimidation and abuse towards minorities since the general election, which was held on 8 November.

The Southern Poverty Law Centre (SPLC) has disclosed that it news tracking method had found “on an anecdotal level (the increase in hate attacks) has been obvious,” adding that many of the attacks were linked to supporters of President-elect Donald Trump. The news comes after the FBI reported a 67% rise in anti-Muslim bigotry last year.

The SPLC has also been critical of President-elect Trump’s decision to appoint a right-wing media executive to the role of chief White House strategist. The group has accused Stephen Bannon of being “the main driver behind Breitbart (News) becoming a white ethno-nationalist propaganda mill.”

Senior SPLC fellow Mark Potok has disclosed that the monitoring group has created an online form for victims where they can report hate attacks, adding that it was also monitoring social media and news reports of hate incidents. Across the country, a number of hotlines have also been formed. The Massachusetts Attorney General has set up a hotline for citizens “to report bias-motivated threats, harassment and violence.” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has also established a state-wide hotline due to an “uptick in recent reports of discrimination, bias-motivated threats, harassment and violence.” In a statement, the governor indicated that “any acts of discrimination or intimidation will be met with the full force of the law.”

Hate Crimes Also Reported North of the Border

Meanwhile across the border in Canada, hate crimes have also been reported however it currently remains unclear if they have anything to do with the US election.

The Toronto Police hate crimes unit has disclosed that it is investigating after signs urging people to join the “alt-right” were posted around town. The posters began “Hey, white person” and directed people to join white nationalist groups. Meanwhile in Ottawa, the capital city, police are investigating after a swastika was spray painted on the door of a local Jewish community centre.