MS Risk Blog

Security Advisory Update – Cote d’Ivoire (9 January 2017)

Executive Summary

As of 8 January, roadblocks in the country’s main cities have been lifted and protests by disgruntled soldiers have ceased. The situation across the Cote d’Ivoire has returned to normal following the conclusion of negotiations between the government and soldiers.

MS Risk advises all travellers to the country to remain vigilant as tensions may flare up again over the coming days and weeks if an agreement reached between the soldiers and the government is not implemented quickly. We advise anyone in the country to monitor the local media and to avoid any protests and large gatherings, as they may turn violent with minimal notice.

Security Advisory

On 6 January 2017, a group of demobilized soldiers attacked three police stations and a petrol station in the town of Bouake, the second largest city, seizing weapons from the police. Throughout the day, there were reports of sporadic gunfire and access routes to the north and south of Bouake were blocked. There were also reports of shots being fired in Daloa, and a heightened military presence reported in Korhogo, with concerns that the violence was spreading to the remainder of the county. Over the next two days, soldiers at military camps and cities across the country joined the mutiny. Shots rang out at a military base in the commercial capital Abidjan on Saturday. Troops closed off a large junction near the Akouedo base, leaving all roads leading to the camp gridlocked with traffic and hampering access to a number of neighboring districts. There were also reports of similar protests erupted in a number of central and northern towns throughout the day, including in Man.

On 8 January, the country’s Defense Minister arrived in Bouake for talks with disgruntled soldiers. Hours later, officials announced that an agreement had been reached between the government and the soldiers. While initially, a mutineer close to the negotiations had disclosed that the soldiers were satisfied with the agreement, which would address demands for bonus payments and improve their living conditions, adding that the soldiers were now preparing to return to their barracks, some of the renegade troops later opened fire outside the house in Bouake where the negotiations had taken place. A number of local officials, including the defense minister, journalists and the mutineers’ own negotiations were trapped inside. They were only allowed to leave several hours later. A statement released by the defense ministry later denied that the defense minister had been held by the soldiers.

The streets of Bouake appeared calm on Sunday and the military presence was gone.   According to Sergeant Mamadou Kone, “we have cleared the corridors everywhere as promised and we have been in barracks since last night,” adding, “I confirm that all over the country all our men have returned to barracks and wait for their money. The mutiny is over for us.” He stated that the soldiers expect to be paid on Monday 9 January. Other cities across the country were also reported to be calm on Sunday, including in Abidjan, where a day earlier loyalist troops had deployed at strategic locations throughout the city. On the ground sources reported that residents rushed to supermarkets to purchase bottled water and other provisions in the event that the mutiny would last for days or weeks. There was no sign of any military presence on the streets of Abidjan on Sunday, with sources reporting that people were seen on the streets, shops were open and traffic moved as normal.

FN Leader Le Pen Calls for France to Leave Euro but Remain Linked

Last week, France’s far-right leader National Front (FN) Marine Le Pen outlined plans for France to leave the Euro should she win this year’s presidential election. However she proposed that Europe could return to a parallel Ecu-like common unit in a bid to soften the economic impact.

Ms Le Pen has vowed to pull France out of the euro for years however in remarks to Reuters news agency, she broadened her vision, suggesting that Europe could return to a basket of recognized national currencies, linked through a common currency system like the Ecu, which was used before the introduction of the single currency in 1999. Under this model, France could reintroduce a currency such as the franc, while maintaining economic relations with the eurozone.

Meanwhile a rival for the left-wing nomination, Arnaud Montebourg, has stated that he would impose a super-tax on banks to raise 5 billion euros (US $5.2 billion) if elected.

Polls currently indicate that conservative candidate Francois Fillon, who decisively won the centre-right nomination in the primary vote that was held in November, will likely face Ms Le Pen in the second round of voting.

French voters will elect a new president in April and May.

Security Advisory: Ivory Coast (6 January 2017)

Executive Summary

Heavy weapons heard fired on 6 January 2017 near Cote Ivoire’s largest military camp in the city of Bouake. Sources have reported that at least two police stations have been attacked. Gunfire initially erupted overnight as demobilized soldiers seized weapons from police stations and took up positions at entry points into the city. Sporadic shooting continued into the late morning. Reports have also indicated gunfire heard at a military base in the western town of Daloa, in a sign that the uprising may be spreading. Unconfirmed reports have indicated that soldiers are reportedly also on the streets of the main town in the north, Korhogo.

Security Advisory

Military sources have disclosed that demobilized soldiers, mainly former rebels from the decade-long conflict, broke into police stations across the city of Bouake, looting weapons before taking up positions at entry points into the city. According to a solider, “it’s a mutiny by former fighters integrated into the army who are demanding bonuses of 5 million CFA francs (US $8,000) each plus a house.” Another army officer has reported, “the city is under the control of former (soldiers) who fired shots around 2 AM (0200 GMT) while taking arms from the city’s police stations.” It has been reported that the demobilized soldiers are stationed at the north and south entrances to the city and that the second in command at the main military base in the city has been taken hostage by the ex-soldiers. Bouake was at the centre of the rebellion to oust former president Laurent Gbagbo.

Shootings were also reported mid-morning at a military base in Daloa, the main trading hub in Cote Ivoire’s western cocoa belt. Residents there have reported that demobilized soldiers were behind the unrest. While currently there is no clear link between the events in Bouake and the outbreak of shooting at a military base in Daloa, this could be a sign that the uprising is spreading.

Residents in both towns remained home on Friday and businesses were closed as a helicopter from Cote Ivoire’s UN peacekeeping mission patrolled above the city.

Unconfirmed reports have indicated that soldiers are reportedly also on the streets of the main town in the north, Korhogo.

UPDATE – The UN Camp Director at Bouake reported in the afternoon of 6 January that the situation is now at a negotiation stage. It is believed that the former rebels are not targeting civilians or expats.

The unrest comes just weeks after the country held parliamentary elections, which had been viewed as a further step towards cementing stability in the West African country.

Increasingly across the region when there has been an incident of magnitude it masks bandit and militant attempts to kidnap expatriates elsewhere in the country.  We saw this in January 2016 when major attacks in Ouagadougou occurred and an Australian couple in another part of Burkina Faso was seized.  There have been similar incidents across the region.  Expatriates in unaffected parts of Cote d’Ivoire need to redouble personal security measures and be alert to hostile reconnaissance to deter any kidnap attempts by other parties in this stressful period.

MS Risk advises all to:

• Avoid built up areas of Bouake and Daloa for the time being
• If personnel are in these areas establish communications and account for all staff
• Maintain a low profile – stay off the streets and shelter in place
• Take stock of potable water, food and other stores and assess
• Ensure a communications plan is in place
• Get any 4 x 4 vehicles off the road and into covered storage – they will be attractive for militia or bandits to seize
• Liaise with relevant authorities and diplomatic missions as necessary
• Report any news or fresh developments to info@msrisk.com

Congress Begins Probe into Russia Cyber Attacks

On Thursday 5 January, top US intelligence officials told a congressional hearing that Russian cyber attacks pose a “major threat” to the United States. The statement comes despite scepticism from President-elect Donald Trump about findings that Moscow orchestrated hacking of the 2016 presidential election.

On Thursday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Marcel Lettre testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, which is chaired by Republican John McCain, who has been a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the hearing, the intelligence officers described Moscow as a major threat to a wide range of US interests because of its “highly-advanced offensive cyber programme” and sophisticated capabilities. In a joint statement, they disclosed that “Russia is a full-scope cyber actor the poses a major threat to US government, military, diplomatic, commercial and critical infrastructure.”

US intelligence agencies say that Russia was behind hacks into Democratic Party organizations and operatives before the election. This conclusion is supported by a number of private Cybersecurity firms. US intelligence officials have said that the Russian cyber attacks were aimed at helping Mr Trump defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 8 November election. While several Republicans have acknowledged the Russian hacking, they have not linked it to an effort to help Mr Trump win. Moscow has denied the hacking allegations. Last week, President Barack Obama ordered the expulsion of 35 Russian suspected spies and imposed sanction on two Russian intelligence agencies over their alleged involvement in hacking US political group sin the 2016 election.

While on Thursday, Mr Trump called himself a “big fan” of the intelligence community, analysts have indicated that he is heading for a conflict over the issue with Democrats and with some fellow Republicans in Congress. Tensions are rising as many lawmakers are wary of Moscow and distrust Mr Trump’s praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin and efforts to heal a rift between the US and Russia.

Sources have indicated that Mr Trump, who will become the US President on 20 January, will be briefed by intelligence agency chiefs on 6 January on hacks that targeted the Democratic Party during the presidential election campaign that he won.

UN Appeals for Record Amount in Global Aid for 2017

The United Nations in December appealed for a record US $22.2 billion to provide aid in 2017 to surging number of people that have been affected by conflicts and disasters around the world.

Speaking at a press conference, UN humanitarian aid chief Stephen O’Brien disclosed that it is “the highest amount we have ever requested,” noting that the figure “…is a reflection of a state of human needs in the world not witnessed since the Second World War.” He went on to say that more than 80 percent of the needs come from manmade conflicts “many of which are now protracted and push up demand for relief year after year.”

The global appeal by UN agencies and other humanitarian organizations aims to gather funds to help the 92.8 million most vulnerable of the nearly 129 million people who are expected to require assistance across 33 countries in 2017. The numbers are staggering, particularly when considering that three war-ravaged countries – Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan – alone account for about a third of all those in need. In a report, O’Brien disclosed that “with persistently escalating humanitarian needs, the gap between what has to be done to save and protect more people today and what humanitarians are financed to do and can access is growing wider,” nothing that “climate change, natural disasters are likely to become more frequent, more severe,” which will in turn make matters worse.

The Syrian conflict, which has killed more than 300,000 people since march 2011 and forced more than half the population to flee, is set to absorb the biggest portion of the funds, with the UN disclosing that it wants a full US $3.4 billion to go towards helping those inside Syria, and another US $4.7 billion destined for refugees and their hose communities in the region. Second in line is South Sudan, which has been wracked by a civil war since 2013 and where the UN warned last month “ethnic cleansing” is taking place. The UN is planning to spend a total of US $2.5 billion to help South Sudanese in need, including US $1.2 billion for refugees from the country. The UN has indicated that US $1.9 billion should go towards helping the victims of Yemen’s brutal civil war, which has escalated dramatically in the wake of the intervention of a Saudi-led coalition in March 2015.

Aid needs have been rising steadily for decades and when the UN launched its first global appeal 25 years ago, it estimated that just US $2.7 billion would cover aid needs around the globe in 1992. However in the last few years, the situation has worsened dramatically, with O’Brien stating “humanitarian needs continue to rise and humanitarian efforts are hampered by reduced access, growing disrespect for human rights and flagrant violations of international humanitarian law.”

The new report highlighted “severely constrained” humanitarian access in places like Iraq, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen, which is “leaving affected people without basic services and protection.” The report further stats “mines, explosives, remnants of war and improvised explosive devices impede humanitarian aces and threaten the lives of vulnerable populations in conflict-affected regions.”

This year’s sum tops the US $20.1 billion that was requested last December for 2016, when, according to O’Brien, “humanitarian actors have saved, protected and supported more people than in any previous year since the founding of the United Nations.” In the end, the UN broadened its 2016 appeal to US $22.1 billion, however donors only produced US $11.4 billion for aid projects this year.