MS Risk Blog

Polls Indicate that Left-Wing Voter Support has Increased for Former French PM Manuel Valls

A poll indicated on 7 December that left-leaning voter support for former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has increased ever since he announced earlier this month that he was seeking the Socialist nomination for the presidential election next spring. Valls made the announcement after current French President Francois Hollande indicated that he would not stand for a second term in office. He is France’s most unpopular president to date.

On 6 December, Valls resigned as head of President Hollande’s government to run in their party’s primary election in late January.  An Elabe poll for BFM TV found that one out of two leftist voters would vote for Valls in the first round of the presidential election. This is up by 14 percentage points from a month ago. It has also given Valls a solid lead over other high-profile leftist politicians to win the Socialist primary. When including voters from across the political spectrum, the Elabe poll found that former economy minister Emmanuel Macron, who is running as an independent, to be the most popular amongst left-wing candidates. Some 33 percent of those polled indicated that they would probably vote for Macron and 27 percent would vote for Valls.

However regardless who wins the party’s ticket, most opinion polls have indicated that a Socialist candidate will fail to pass the first round of voting, which will take place next April, with an expected runoff in May. Most polls say that conservative former prime minister Francois Fillon and far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen will come out on top of the first round of voting, with Fillon seen winning the runoff with about two-thirds of the vote.

Security Alert: Two Attacks in Egypt

On 9 December, six policemen were killed and three injured in an explosion in the Giza district of Cairo, near the ancient pyramids. The attack appears to have specifically targeted police officers. It was the deadliest incident in Cairo since May, when Islamic State gunmen attacked a bus carrying plainclothes officers, killing eight.

Anonymous sources indicate that two bombs were placed near a mobile checkpoint in Al Haram street. The street leads to the Pyramids and is often used by tour buses. The area has been cordoned off as police search for more explosives.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the incident, however the acts are consistent with a relatively unknown militant group operating in Cairo called the Hassam (“Decisiveness”) Movement. In September, Haasam Movement claimed responsibility for an assassination attempt on Egypt’s deputy state prosecutor.

The bombing comes days after the Interior Ministry announced the killing of three members of the Hassam Movement in southern Egypt, and weeks after they announced breaking up one of the group’s cells. Egyptian security sources say the Hassam Movement is affiliated the Muslim Brotherhood. However since 2013, the Egyptian government has been prone to attributing many militant actions to the Brotherhood, which is now banned and listed as a terrorist organisation in Egypt.

The incident occurs as Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi initiates austerity measures address a growing financial crisis. The government floated the Egyptian pound in November and cut fuel subsidies, raising the price of many necessities out of the reach of many struggling Egyptians.

While the attack does not appear to have targeted civilians or foreigners, visitors to the region are urged to remain vigilant, particularly when visiting sites popular for tourists.

A second bombing occurred later on Friday near Egypt’s Kafr el Sheikh. The bomb targeted police vehicles in the road, injuring three policemen and killing a motorist in the vicinity of the explosion.

In a statement on their website, the relatively unknown Cairo-based militant group, Hassam Movement, has claimed responsibility for the attack Giza attacks earlier in the day. It is likely they are also responsible for the second bombing.

Italy Says NO to Matteo Renzi

On Sunday 4^th December, Italian citizens have made their decision: The proposed constitutional reform won’t become a reality. On a very high 68 per cent turnout, 60 per cent of the voters refused the proposal, determining the end of Matteo Renzi’s government, who had vowed to resign in case of loss. The young Prime Minister -at least the youngest in Italy’s history- came into power tow years and a half ago after orchestrating a sort of internal party coup in 2014. He took advantage of a chaotic political situation and he managed to take over the place of the then-PM Enrico Letta.

Renzi formed the third non-elected government of the last two years. However, his energy and self-assurance won the confidence of Italians. His agenda echoed in some ways the Obama’s “yes we can” campaign to win the U.S presidency. He pledged, in fact, immediate reforms and the demolition of the old political system. It is undeniable that he, also, enjoyed significant victories during his brief mandate, such as the approval of a controversial Job Acts and the electoral law. Nonetheless, during this period he has not been able to get over Italy’s long-lasting political divisions and its continuing economic malaise.

During this government the economic performance of the country has not exactly seen meaningful improvements. The former Premier has been accused of failing to reboot the stagnant economic growth and decrease the unemployment rate, which has been vacillating between 11,4 and 11,7 per cent for the last 15 months, with youth unemployment rate at 36,4 per cent. Because of this, as many analysts and commentators pointed out, the victory of NO is clearly not an indicator of an anti-establishment sentiment, but rather one more signal of deep discontent coming from the largest part of the population, increasingly impoverished and without any hope of prosperity.

Concerning the consequences that this Referendum might have on the stability of the Eurozone, it is still too soon to draw any conclusion. It is true that in the aftermath of the vote the euro dropped on the markets against the dollar, however it quickly recovered its losses already on Monday. Moreover, the majority of the most prominent figures in Europe seem to agree that the Italian vote does not mean a risk for the European stability. During the Eurogroup Finance Ministers meeting, the German minister Schaeuble, said that there’s no basis to talk of the Italian Referendum triggering a “euro crisis”, echoed by the French minister Sapin, who insisted that the Italian referendum “is a question of internal politics. It wasn’t about Europe.”

However, despite this outcome is with no doubt a primarily internal matter, it is not helpful for the EU either. The popular discontent fuels populist and extremist parties across the country like the far right Lega Nord led by Matteo Salvini and the anti-establishment 5Star Movements. They can count on a relatively large portion of the electorate and both see the EU as the ultimate responsible of the Italian depressive economic situation. They also pledge for the end of the single currency and the re-establishment of monetary sovereignty.

In the mean time, five days after the vote, it is not clear yet what is going to be the next step in the Italian politics, everyone is calling for new elections but the ball is in the hands of the President of the Republic, who, according to the most recent updates, is not willing to concede new elections as long as the current electoral law is not revisited. He is likely to appoint a head of government with the support of the current majority or a new enlarged majority with the task to vote for a new electoral law, which has been recently declared unconstitutional. Given the complicated situation, a caretaker government could last between four or six months at best, and then Italians, maybe, will go back to the polls.

US Embassy Issues Terror Warning for Burundi

The United States embassy in Burundi has warned US citizens in the country of potential attacks from “regional terror groups” targeting Western interests.

Over the weekend (3 – 4 December), the US embassy in the capital Bujumbura warned American citizens of “heightened security concerns that regional terror groups remain actively interested in attacking US and other Western and local interests in Burundi.” In an emergency message that was published on its website, the diplomatic mission disclosed that it had received “specific information leading to concern about potential activity in early December,” including, but not limited to, the Kajaga neighborhood, which is located on the outskirts of Bujumbura. The statement went on to say “the embassy has now placed the neighborhood and associated restaurants and beach clubs off limits to embassy personnel until further notice.” US citizens who do visit these areas are advised to avoid large public gatherings, especially those with no visible security presence, review or enhance personal security plans and be prepared to enact those plans.

Presidential Election in Gambia: President Concedes Defeat After 22 Years in Power

In a shocking move on Friday, 2 December, the country’s electoral commission announced Gambian President Yahya Jammeh conceded defeat to the opposition, effectively brining a dramatic end to his twenty-two years in power. Security forces were deployed heavily around the capital on Friday amidst growing tensions over whether Jammeh would accept a ballot box defeat.

Jammeh was attempting to win a fifth term in power with his Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) party. He has been defeated by opposition leader Adama Barrow (51), a previously unknown businessman who was chosen as the opposition flag barer by a group of political parties who have joined forces for the first time and won unprecedented popular support. Early on Friday, results were positive for Barrow as he took the capital Banjul, which was a traditional Jammeh stronghold. According to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), Barrow won nearly 50 percent of the vote in the capital city’s three constituencies, compared to 43 percent for Jammeh. During the early morning hours, military and police set up checkpoints every few hundred metres on the outskirts of the capital city. The United States has indicated that turnout in Thursday’s election appears to be high and that the vote took place in “generally peaceful conditions.” The IEC meanwhile has hailed the vote as “a very successful election.”

If the concession is confirmed, then Barrow will likely decide to serve a three-year term at the head of a transition reform government. Jammeh’s campaign manager Yankuba Colley has stated that he was not aware of the electoral commission chairman’s statement, adding however that he believed the president would step down if the Gambian people wanted it. Barrow’s camp has confirmed the IEC statement

The presidential election, which was held on Thursday 1 December, was marked by an Internet blackout that sparked condemnation from rights groups and the United States. There were also some claims of voter intimidation. A Senegalese security source also confirmed that The Gambia had closed the borders on Thursday, which is a common occurrence during elections in West Africa. Diplomats have confirmed that no professional international observers were on the ground for the vote, however a small team of African Union (AU) experts monitored events along with Banjul-based US and European delegations that were already present in the country.

Jammeh seized power in a 1994 coup and had, until now, survived multiple attempts to remove him from the presidency.