MS Risk Blog

SECURITY MESSAGE FOR U.S. CITIZENS: KINSHASA (DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO), TAKE PRECAUTIONS DECEMBER 17-19

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The U.S. Embassy informs U.S. citizens in the DRC that U.S. government employees have been instructed to limit their movements to and within Gombe starting on Saturday, December 17. Employees have also been asked to remain in their residences from Saturday at 23:00 until Sunday, December 18 at 05:00.

Gambia’s Jammeh Rejects Presidential Election Results a Week After Admitting Defeat

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In a shocking move, Gambian leader Yahya Jammeh on 9 December rejected the result of the presidential election held earlier this month, a week after he admitted defeat. He has called for new elections to be held and the ruling party has announced that it will challenge the results of the 1 December election at the Supreme Court. They have until 13 December to submit a challenge to the court.

The announcement, which was made on state television, throws the future of the West African country into doubt after the unexpected election result ended Jammeh’s 22-year rule. Last week, he had conceded defeat on state TV, in a move that resulted in celebrations over the defeat of a government that human rights groups accused of detaining, torturing and killing opponents during the president’s rule. Opposition leader Adama Barrow had been announced as the winner of the election by the country’s electoral commission. However on Saturday Jammeh has since stated that “after a thorough investigation, I have decided to reject the outcome of the recent election. I lament serious and unacceptable abnormalities, which have reportedly transpired during the electoral process,” adding, “I recommend fresh and transparent elections, which will be officiated by a god-fearing and independent electoral commission.” On the ground sources have reported that overnight the capital city Banjul remained quiet, however there was a particular nervousness about the president’s statement that he would deal harshly with any troublemakers who took to the streets.

International reaction to his statement has also been swift, with the United States State Department saying in a statement that Jammeh’s rejection of the results was an egregious attempt to undermine a credible election and remain illegitimately in power. Meanwhile Senegal’s foreign minister disclosed on Saturday that Gambian authorities have refused entry to the chair of regional body Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Ellen Sirleaf Johnson, in a move that has dampened hopes for a political solution after President Yahya Jammeh rejected the results of the election he lost on 1 December. Sirleaf Johnson had hoped to put back on track Gambia’s first democratic transition to power in over fifty years, however those plans appeared thwarted on Saturday when her plane was denied landing access at Banjul. Senegalese foreign minister Mankeur Ndiaye disclosed “Johnson Sirleaf was supposed to fly in today, but Jammeh said ‘not at the moment.’” It was not clear if the plane had already taken off.   Also on Saturday the African Union (AU) weighed in on Yahya Jammeh’s refusal to accept the 1 December presidential election results, calling his statement “null and void.” Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma disclosed that “the Chairperson of the Commission strongly urges President Yahya Jammeh to facilitate a peaceful and orderly transition and transfer of power.” She also called on Gambia’s security forces to remain neutral. The United Nations Security Council on Saturday condemned Gambia President Yahya Jammeh’s rejection of election results announced last week that saw him lose power after 22 years. The Council has urged all parties to refrain from violence. In a statement, the Council disclosed “(Security Council members) called on him to respect the choice of the sovereign People of The Gambia, as he did on 2 December 2016, and to transfer, without condition and undue delay, power to the President-elect, Mr Adama Barrow.”

The head of Barrow’s transition team has disclosed that the president-elect and his staff members are safe. Mai Ahmad Fatty went on to say “we are consulting on what to do, but as far as we are concerned, the people have voted,” adding “we will maintain peace and stability and not let anyone provoke us into violence.” What is certain is that Jammeh’s shock announcement will present an unexpected and severe challenge to the incoming Barrow administration, which is already grappling with how to take the reins of power and deal with an army that for the past two decades has been loyal to the same present. While last week, army chief General Ousman Badjie had called Barrow in order to pledge his allegiance, diplomatic sources have disclosed that they expect a faction from Jammeh’s Jola ethnic group to remain loyal to him.

Official election results from the electoral commission gave Barow 45.5 percent of the vote against Jammeh’s 36.7 percent. The Independent Electoral Commission however later corrected the results to give Barrow a slimmer lead with 43.3 percent of votes, or fewer than 20,000 more than Jammeh.

EU Planning 5 Billion Euro Defense Fund in Wake of Trump and Brexit

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The European Union (EU) has unveiled its biggest defense funding and research plan in more than a decade in a bid to reverse billions in cuts and in turn to send a message to US President-elect Donald Trump that it wants to pay for its own security.

The main proposal is an investment fund for defense that would allow EU governments that pay in to also borrow from it. In a move to revitalize defense cooperation, the European Commission has proposed a 5 billion euro (US $5.3 billion) fund in order to let governments club together to purchase new helicopters and planes to lower costs. EU officials have disclosed that another plan is to let the EU’s common budget and its development bank invest in military research. This move would open the door to new drones, cyber warfare systems and other hi-tech gear. Some EU officials have conceded that bigger EU countries, like Germany which has one of the world’s largest defense industries, stand to gain most from the Commission’s proposals with smaller nations being at a greater risk of losing business.

European Commission Vice President Jyri Katainen has disclosed “this is not about an EU army, this is not about spending on the military instead of social security…We face multiplying threats and we must act,” stressing that all assets developed would belong to national governments.

Currently no details on how the bloc plans to persuade member states to move away from the current system, where many pursue their own defense projects favouring local manufactures and duplicating efforts, have been released. Accoridng to European Commission data, the bloc has nineteen types of armoured infantry fighting vehicle, compared with one in the United States. Wasted funds amount to 25 billion euros a year.

Colombian Senate Approves New Peace Accord with FARC

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The Colombian Senate has approved a revised peace accord with the country’s largest rebel group, the FARC after the first agreement was narrowly rejected in a referendum in October 2016. The revised agreement will now go to the lower house of Congress for approval.

President Juan Manuel Santos has disclosed that the new proposals are stronger and take into account the changes that were demanded by opponents of the initial scheme. Those opponents however, who are led by former President Alvaro Uribe, have already indicated that the revised deal is still too lenient on FARC leaders.

The peace accord is aimed at ending an armed conflict that has killed more than 260,000 people over five decades. The two sides reached an agreement earlier this year after four years of talks that were held in the Cuban capital, Havana.

Polls Indicate that Left-Wing Voter Support has Increased for Former French PM Manuel Valls

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A poll indicated on 7 December that left-leaning voter support for former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has increased ever since he announced earlier this month that he was seeking the Socialist nomination for the presidential election next spring. Valls made the announcement after current French President Francois Hollande indicated that he would not stand for a second term in office. He is France’s most unpopular president to date.

On 6 December, Valls resigned as head of President Hollande’s government to run in their party’s primary election in late January.  An Elabe poll for BFM TV found that one out of two leftist voters would vote for Valls in the first round of the presidential election. This is up by 14 percentage points from a month ago. It has also given Valls a solid lead over other high-profile leftist politicians to win the Socialist primary. When including voters from across the political spectrum, the Elabe poll found that former economy minister Emmanuel Macron, who is running as an independent, to be the most popular amongst left-wing candidates. Some 33 percent of those polled indicated that they would probably vote for Macron and 27 percent would vote for Valls.

However regardless who wins the party’s ticket, most opinion polls have indicated that a Socialist candidate will fail to pass the first round of voting, which will take place next April, with an expected runoff in May. Most polls say that conservative former prime minister Francois Fillon and far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen will come out on top of the first round of voting, with Fillon seen winning the runoff with about two-thirds of the vote.