MS Risk Blog

Congress Begins Probe into Russia Cyber Attacks

On Thursday 5 January, top US intelligence officials told a congressional hearing that Russian cyber attacks pose a “major threat” to the United States. The statement comes despite scepticism from President-elect Donald Trump about findings that Moscow orchestrated hacking of the 2016 presidential election.

On Thursday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, National Security Agency Director Mike Rogers and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Marcel Lettre testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, which is chaired by Republican John McCain, who has been a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the hearing, the intelligence officers described Moscow as a major threat to a wide range of US interests because of its “highly-advanced offensive cyber programme” and sophisticated capabilities. In a joint statement, they disclosed that “Russia is a full-scope cyber actor the poses a major threat to US government, military, diplomatic, commercial and critical infrastructure.”

US intelligence agencies say that Russia was behind hacks into Democratic Party organizations and operatives before the election. This conclusion is supported by a number of private Cybersecurity firms. US intelligence officials have said that the Russian cyber attacks were aimed at helping Mr Trump defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 8 November election. While several Republicans have acknowledged the Russian hacking, they have not linked it to an effort to help Mr Trump win. Moscow has denied the hacking allegations. Last week, President Barack Obama ordered the expulsion of 35 Russian suspected spies and imposed sanction on two Russian intelligence agencies over their alleged involvement in hacking US political group sin the 2016 election.

While on Thursday, Mr Trump called himself a “big fan” of the intelligence community, analysts have indicated that he is heading for a conflict over the issue with Democrats and with some fellow Republicans in Congress. Tensions are rising as many lawmakers are wary of Moscow and distrust Mr Trump’s praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin and efforts to heal a rift between the US and Russia.

Sources have indicated that Mr Trump, who will become the US President on 20 January, will be briefed by intelligence agency chiefs on 6 January on hacks that targeted the Democratic Party during the presidential election campaign that he won.

UN Appeals for Record Amount in Global Aid for 2017

The United Nations in December appealed for a record US $22.2 billion to provide aid in 2017 to surging number of people that have been affected by conflicts and disasters around the world.

Speaking at a press conference, UN humanitarian aid chief Stephen O’Brien disclosed that it is “the highest amount we have ever requested,” noting that the figure “…is a reflection of a state of human needs in the world not witnessed since the Second World War.” He went on to say that more than 80 percent of the needs come from manmade conflicts “many of which are now protracted and push up demand for relief year after year.”

The global appeal by UN agencies and other humanitarian organizations aims to gather funds to help the 92.8 million most vulnerable of the nearly 129 million people who are expected to require assistance across 33 countries in 2017. The numbers are staggering, particularly when considering that three war-ravaged countries – Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan – alone account for about a third of all those in need. In a report, O’Brien disclosed that “with persistently escalating humanitarian needs, the gap between what has to be done to save and protect more people today and what humanitarians are financed to do and can access is growing wider,” nothing that “climate change, natural disasters are likely to become more frequent, more severe,” which will in turn make matters worse.

The Syrian conflict, which has killed more than 300,000 people since march 2011 and forced more than half the population to flee, is set to absorb the biggest portion of the funds, with the UN disclosing that it wants a full US $3.4 billion to go towards helping those inside Syria, and another US $4.7 billion destined for refugees and their hose communities in the region. Second in line is South Sudan, which has been wracked by a civil war since 2013 and where the UN warned last month “ethnic cleansing” is taking place. The UN is planning to spend a total of US $2.5 billion to help South Sudanese in need, including US $1.2 billion for refugees from the country. The UN has indicated that US $1.9 billion should go towards helping the victims of Yemen’s brutal civil war, which has escalated dramatically in the wake of the intervention of a Saudi-led coalition in March 2015.

Aid needs have been rising steadily for decades and when the UN launched its first global appeal 25 years ago, it estimated that just US $2.7 billion would cover aid needs around the globe in 1992. However in the last few years, the situation has worsened dramatically, with O’Brien stating “humanitarian needs continue to rise and humanitarian efforts are hampered by reduced access, growing disrespect for human rights and flagrant violations of international humanitarian law.”

The new report highlighted “severely constrained” humanitarian access in places like Iraq, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen, which is “leaving affected people without basic services and protection.” The report further stats “mines, explosives, remnants of war and improvised explosive devices impede humanitarian aces and threaten the lives of vulnerable populations in conflict-affected regions.”

This year’s sum tops the US $20.1 billion that was requested last December for 2016, when, according to O’Brien, “humanitarian actors have saved, protected and supported more people than in any previous year since the founding of the United Nations.” In the end, the UN broadened its 2016 appeal to US $22.1 billion, however donors only produced US $11.4 billion for aid projects this year.

Last Minute Deal Struck in DRC Political Crisis

According to a lead mediator from the Catholic Church, Congolese President Joseph Kabila will step down after elections, which will be held before the end of 2017, under a deal that was struck by political parties on 30 December 2016. Speaking to reporters, Marcel Utembi, president of the Catholic Bishops’ Conference in the DRC, disclosed that under the deal, President Kabila will be unable to change the constitution to extend his mandate and run for a third term in office. Hopes are now high that the landmark power-sharing deal between DRC’s political opponents will bring an end to a months-long crisis. It also aims to head of further unrest over the fate of President Joseph Kabila, whose second and final mandate ended on 20 December with no sign of him stepping down and no election in sight.

Below is a timeline of the crisis that has affected the country

• 17 January 2015 – Parliament adopts a bill that would enable President Kabila, who has been in power for fourteen years, to extend his term beyond 2016. The president’s opponents believe that he wants to prolong his mandate by making the presidential and parliamentary elections contingent on a new electoral roll, as a census that was set to begin in 2015 has yet to take place.
• Between 19 – 22 January 2015 – Clashes between police and anti-Kabila demonstrators erupt in the capital Kinshasa and several other towns across the country. The clashes degenerate into riots and looting, with police using life fire and tear gas in a bid to disperse the crowds. Dozens are killed. Speaking from Belgium, opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi calls on the Congolese people to force a “dying regime” from power.
• 25 January 2015 – Parliament votes in favor of a new election law, which still leaves doubts over the timetable for new polls.
• December 2015 – The United Nations expresses concern over a government crackdown on opponents, pointing to “arbitrary arrests and detentions, in particular political opponents, civil society activists or demonstrators.”
• 4 May 2016 – Opposition leader Moise Katumbi declares that he will stand in the presidential election. He is seen as the leading challenger to Kabila. The wealthy businessman is a former Kabila ally who joined the opposition in September 2015 after stepping down as governor of mineral-rich Katanga province.
• 11 May 2016 – The Constitutional Court states that Kabia can remain in office when his mandate expires, even without being re-elected.
• May 2016 – Katumbi leave for South Africa, ostensibly for medical treatment, after appearing in court twice over the alleged use of foreign mercenaries.
• 10 June 2016 – During a Brussels meeting, which was organized by Tshisekedi, the mainstream opposition decides to set up a new coalition.
• June 2016 – Katumbi is sentenced to three years in prison over a separate real estate dispute in a move that effectively makes him ineligible to stand in the election.
• July 2016 – Tshisekedi returns to Kinshasa after two years in Belgium. Speaking before tens of thousands of supporters, he demands that the election be held by the year’s end and that Kabila departs.
• September 2016 – The opposition coalition calls for demonstrators to signal notice to Kabila, three months before his term is due to expire.
• 19 – 20 September 2016 – Violence erupts in Kinshasa between security forces and youths, leaving several dozen people dead. The protests were called by Tshisekedi’s opposition coalition to coincide with the last three months of Kabila’s term in office.
• 17 October 2016 – The parliamentary majority and an opposition fringe minority sign an accord, which effectively pushes the presidential election back to April 2018 and keeps Kabila in place until his predecessor takes over. The mainstream opposition however continues to demand that Kabila step down at the end of his mandate, in December 2016.
• 8 December 2016 – The DRC’s episcopal conference CENCO launches talks which are aimed at a deal on setting up a transition authority until a presidential election can be held. It sets a 16 December deadline, which comes and goes.
• 12 December 2016 – The United States and the European Union (EU) impose sanctions on top Congolese officials over bloodshed in the country.
• 17 December 2016 – Catholic Church negotiators announce that talks would resume only a day after Kabila’s term ends.
• 20 December 2016 – According to the UN, deadly clashes erupt in Kinshasa and other cities on the last day of Kabila’s mandate, leaving at least forty people dead.
• Late December 2016 – The CENCO-mediated talks resume
• 31 December 2016 – The two sides agree that Kabila will remain in power until elections are held at the “end of 2017.” During this 12-month period, a so-called National Transition Council, will be set up, headed by opposition leader Tshisekedi, and a prime minister will be named from opposition ranks.

Angela Merkel to Seek Fourth Term as German Chancellor

Germany’s centre-right Chancellor Angela Merkel has announced that she will run for a fourth term in office.

She told her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party in Berlin that she expected her toughest campaign yet and would “fight for our values and our way of life.” An election is due to be held next year after four years of coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD). Speaking to reporters, Mrs Merkel disclosed that the decision to run for a fourth term had been “anything but trivial after 11 years in office,” adding that she expected challenges from both the right and the left of the political spectrum.

While Mrs Merkel’s poll ratings have slipped since the height of her popularity, she retains wide support. A poll for one Sunday newspaper found that 55% of Germans would vote for her. However she will be battling the tide of populism that swept Donald Trump to victory in the Untied States and which is also washing across Europe.

The Chancellor, who has been in office since 2005, is also being challenged by the populist right-wing AfD party. In September, she accepted responsibility for election defeats for the CDU in several states, conceding that her open-door policy towards migrants had been a factor. Earlier this year, the head of the country’s federal office for migration and refugees disclosed that Germany expected up to 300,000 migrants to arrive in the country this year. Last year, it received more than a million applications for asylum.

If she win’s next year’s general election, which is due to take place between August and October, she will equal the post-war record set by Helmut Kohl, who was chancellor from 1982 to 1998. Germany does not have term limits on the country’s top job.

Merkel’s Three Terms in Office:

2005 – 2009

• November 2005 – Becomes Germany’s first female leader after stalemate elections result in grand coalition
• September 2007 – Holds historic talks with exiled Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama, in a move that angers China

2009 – 2013

• June 2010 – Merkel’s fiscal austerity programme to deal with the eurozone crisis is approved
• October 2010 – Merkel states that attempts to build a multicultural society in Germany have “utterly failed”
• May 2011 – Merkel states that a nuclear phase-out by 2022 can make Germany trailblazer
• June 2012 – Chancellor urges the European Union political union, calling for “more Europe
• 2013 – Claims emerge that a US spy agency tapped Merkel’s phone, in a move that strains German-US ties.

2013 – Present

• February 2015 – Merkel, along with French President Francois Hollande, brokers a deal aimed to stop fighting in eastern Ukraine
• December 2015 – Merkel is named as Person of the Year by Time magazine
• March/September 2015 – CPU suffers defeats in regional polls, with Merkel admitting that her immigration policies were a key factor.
• November 2015 – In the wake of a deadly terrorist attack in Paris, France, Merkel’s government pledges to deploy aircraft and a navy ship to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in Syria

US Military Official: IS “Has Lost 50,000 Fighters” Over Two Years

According to a US military official, at least 50,000 militants from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group have been killed since the US-led coalition was launched in Syria and Iraq two years ago.

The senior official has described the figure as a “conservative estimate,” adding that it showed that air power and a small number of US figures supporting local forces were having an impact. He further disclosed that the ongoing US campaign was beginning to damage IS. The US however has repeatedly warned that IS can replace fighters quite quickly.

While the US has often been reluctant to provide figures on enemy causalities, in August, Lt Gen Sean MacFarland was quoted by the AP news agency as stating that about 45,000 enemy combatants had been killed. Meanwhile in February, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest disclosed that IS had about 25,000 fighters operating in Syria and Iraq, citing a US intelligence estimate.

The senior US military official further disclosed that coalition airstrikes could be intensified in places such as Mosul, which Iraqi troops are now battling in order to recapture. He notes however that this would have to be offset against the risk of civilian casualties.