MS Risk Blog

Security Advisory (18 January 2017)

Executive Summary

Witnesses have reported that gendarmes left their base at the port of Abidjan on 18 January, firing in the air and telling companies with offices there to close. The gendarmes then moved out of the port area and blocked a major road in the city’s Treichville neighborhood, halting traffic and resulting in residents fleeing home. There have been no reports that this incident has affected operations at the port in Abidjan, however any vessels calling at this port are advised to check ahead with port authority. In the city of Bouake, guards fired their weapons in front of the main prison in a bid to pressure the government into paying them more money. On Tuesday, at least two soldiers were killed in the capital Yamoussoukro, just hours after the government began paying bonuses to former rebels.

Security Advisory

Weeks of unrest appear to be showing no signs of easing and the violence is now apparently spreading amongst the security forces of the country. In order to prepare for civil disorder we recommend the following immediate action:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff and report daily
• Book all staff off site and back daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times
• Ensure all staff have adequate air time and have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

US Presidential Election: Inauguration Day

Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45^th President of the United States of America on 20 January. Here is a look at Inauguration Day (All timings UK times).

19 January

• Wreath-laying Ceremony: Mr Trump will attend the ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery, in Virginia, expected to begin at 8:30 PM.
• Welcome Concert: The concert at Lincoln Memorial marks the official kick-off to the inaugural events. Mr Trump and his vice-President, Mike Pence, are expected to make an appearance. The concert is expected to begin at 9 PM.

20 January

• Morning Prayer: Traditionally, the day begins with a prayer, which for some presidents took place at the St John’s Episcopal Church, located across the street from the White House. This event is expected to occur at around 1:30 PM.
• White House Meeting: Mr Trump and Barack Obama will have a meeting at the White House, which is a customary courtesy from the outgoing president to the incoming one. The outgoing president leaves a brief note for his successor. Mr Obama has vowed to help Mr Trump achieve a smooth transition of power.
• Swearing-in Ceremony: Mr Trump, accompanied by his family, is expected to be sworn into office at 5 PM by Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts Jr in the ceremony in front of the US Capitol building.
• The oath: “I do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability preserve, protect and defend the constitution of the United States.”
• Attending: Hundreds of thousands will attend the ceremony, including former presidents, the diplomatic corps and invited guests. Defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton will attend along with her husband, former president Bill Clinton. Mr Obama will attend the ceremony and will then leave by helicopter.
• Inaugural Address: After being sworn-in, Mr Trump will deliver his first presidential address.
• Inaugural Parade: At the end of the swearing-in ceremony, the parade will proceed from the Capitol down Pennsylvania Avenue to the White House. This is expected to start at 8 PM.
• Inaugural Ball: The day ends with a series of inaugural balls across Washington DC. The two main balls will be held at the Walter E Washington Convention Centre, and one at the National Building Museum. Mr Trump and the First Lady are expected to make an appearance.
• Protests: Almost two dozens group s have applied for permits for protests on or around Mr Trumps’ inauguration, ranging from anti-war associations to anarchists. The Women’s Mach, which is expected to gather some 200,000 people, is scheduled near the Capitol Building on 21 January.

Security Advisory: Cote d’Ivoire (17 January 2017)

Executive Summary

Reports have emerged that elite loyalist troops killed a mutinous soldier in the administrative capital Yamoussoukro on Tuesday 17 January. The soldier’s death is the first to occur since a mutiny over pay erupted in the city of Bouake on 5 January. The mutiny concluded last week after an agreement was reached between the government and soldiers, who began receiving their payments on Tuesday. However tensions have remained high and on 17 January, troops, enraged that they were excluded from the deal, took to the streets of Yamoussoukro and Bouake, firing into the air and prompting fears of further unrest.      

Security Advisory

Tensions remain high across the country and the incidents in Bouake and Yamoussoukro may spread further across the country. In order to prepare for civil disorder we recommend the following immediate action:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff and report daily
• Book all staff off site and back daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times
• Ensure all staff have adequate air time and have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

French Presidential Election: New Polls Shows Fillon Beating Le Pen

A new poll released this month has indicated that French conservative Francois Fillon will beat far-right leader Marine Le Pen by 63 percent to 37 percent if they meet head to head in a presidential election runoff in May. The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.3 percent, was conducted by Internet from 6 – 8 January and was based on a sample of 946 people registered to vote.

The POP 2017 poll is in line with the findings of other surveys, which show Fillon losing momentum with his share of the vote in the first round, falling to 24 percent from as much as 27.5 percent a month ago. The poll showed him trailing National Front (FN) leader Le Pen by one or two percentage points in the first-round of the vote, which will take place on 23 April, but picking up enough votes from other defeated candidates, including from centrists among the Socialists, to comfortably defeat her in the 7 May runoff vote.

Furthermore, the poll also appeared to confirm that Emmanuel Macron, a popular former economy minister under Socialist President Francois Hollande who is running as an independent, might still be in a position to pull off a surprise. The poll has indicated that Macron is seen as coming in third place in the first round, with 16 – 20 percent of the vote, depending on which candidate the Socialists select for the party ticket in their primaries due to take place later this month. However he may be able to count on scooping up much of the 5 percent of the votes that the poll attributed to centrist Francois Bayrou if the latter decides not to run. Bayrou has social policies that are close to those of Macron and so his supporters may throw their weight behind the former investment banker. Bayrou has not yet disclosed whether he will run.

Nigeria Marks 1,000 Days Since Kidnap of Chibok Schoolgirls

On 8 January, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari stated that he was hopeful that the remaining 195 Chibok schoolgirls will be rescued, as the country marked 1,000 days since the mass abduction by Boko Haram that drew global attention to the jihadist insurgency.

President Buhari stated that his government was committed to finding the rest of the more than 200 schoolgirls who were abducted almost three years ago from the northeastern town of Chibok. Since being seized in April 2014, only two dozen have been found or rescued, some of whom had babies in captivity.

Earlier this month, the Nigerian army reported that it had rescued another Chibok girls, Rakiya Abubkar, along with her six-month-old baby. Another two schoolgirls have been found in the past year by troops and in October, 21 Chibok girls were released by Boko Haram after negotiations with the Nigerian government brokered by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Swiss government. The release was hailed as a breakthrough that would lead to the recovery of the remaining girls in captivity. At the time, presidential spokesman Garba Shehu disclosed that the Nigerian government was hoping to secure the release of 83 other girls, however there has since been no update on those negotiations.

Timeline of Chibok Kidnapping

• April 2014 – Boko Haram militants kidnap 276 schoolgirls from Chibok in the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno, a region where the insurgency emerged several years ago.
• November 2014 – Extremists seize Chibok and the Nigerian army takes back the town.
• May 2015 – Newly elected President Muhammadu Buhari is sworn into office, pledging to tackle Boko Haram “head-on.”
• 13 April 2016 – Boko Haram video appears to depict some of the Chibok girls, with mothers recognizing their daughters.
• 18 May 2016 – A relative discloses that one of the Chibok girls is found, pregnant, in a forest. Pressure increases on the Nigerian government to rescue the remaining missing girls.
• 14 August 2016 – Boko Haram video states that some of the Chibok girls have been killed in airstrikes. The militant group demands the release of extremists in exchange for the other girls’ freedom.
• 13 October 2016 – Spokesman for Nigeria’s president confirms that 21 Chibok schoolgirls have ben freed as a result of government negotiations with Boko Haram
• 5 November 2016 – Nigerian military announces the first army rescue of a Chibok girl, during a raid on a forest hideout.
• 24 December 2016 – Nigeria’s president declares that Boko Haram has been crushed as the militant group is driven from its last forest hideout.
• 5 January 2017 – Nigeria’s army states that soldiers have found one of the schoolgirls wandering in the bush near the forest stronghold.