MS Risk Blog

French Presidential Election: New Polls Shows Fillon Beating Le Pen

A new poll released this month has indicated that French conservative Francois Fillon will beat far-right leader Marine Le Pen by 63 percent to 37 percent if they meet head to head in a presidential election runoff in May. The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.3 percent, was conducted by Internet from 6 – 8 January and was based on a sample of 946 people registered to vote.

The POP 2017 poll is in line with the findings of other surveys, which show Fillon losing momentum with his share of the vote in the first round, falling to 24 percent from as much as 27.5 percent a month ago. The poll showed him trailing National Front (FN) leader Le Pen by one or two percentage points in the first-round of the vote, which will take place on 23 April, but picking up enough votes from other defeated candidates, including from centrists among the Socialists, to comfortably defeat her in the 7 May runoff vote.

Furthermore, the poll also appeared to confirm that Emmanuel Macron, a popular former economy minister under Socialist President Francois Hollande who is running as an independent, might still be in a position to pull off a surprise. The poll has indicated that Macron is seen as coming in third place in the first round, with 16 – 20 percent of the vote, depending on which candidate the Socialists select for the party ticket in their primaries due to take place later this month. However he may be able to count on scooping up much of the 5 percent of the votes that the poll attributed to centrist Francois Bayrou if the latter decides not to run. Bayrou has social policies that are close to those of Macron and so his supporters may throw their weight behind the former investment banker. Bayrou has not yet disclosed whether he will run.

Nigeria Marks 1,000 Days Since Kidnap of Chibok Schoolgirls

On 8 January, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari stated that he was hopeful that the remaining 195 Chibok schoolgirls will be rescued, as the country marked 1,000 days since the mass abduction by Boko Haram that drew global attention to the jihadist insurgency.

President Buhari stated that his government was committed to finding the rest of the more than 200 schoolgirls who were abducted almost three years ago from the northeastern town of Chibok. Since being seized in April 2014, only two dozen have been found or rescued, some of whom had babies in captivity.

Earlier this month, the Nigerian army reported that it had rescued another Chibok girls, Rakiya Abubkar, along with her six-month-old baby. Another two schoolgirls have been found in the past year by troops and in October, 21 Chibok girls were released by Boko Haram after negotiations with the Nigerian government brokered by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Swiss government. The release was hailed as a breakthrough that would lead to the recovery of the remaining girls in captivity. At the time, presidential spokesman Garba Shehu disclosed that the Nigerian government was hoping to secure the release of 83 other girls, however there has since been no update on those negotiations.

Timeline of Chibok Kidnapping

• April 2014 – Boko Haram militants kidnap 276 schoolgirls from Chibok in the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno, a region where the insurgency emerged several years ago.
• November 2014 – Extremists seize Chibok and the Nigerian army takes back the town.
• May 2015 – Newly elected President Muhammadu Buhari is sworn into office, pledging to tackle Boko Haram “head-on.”
• 13 April 2016 – Boko Haram video appears to depict some of the Chibok girls, with mothers recognizing their daughters.
• 18 May 2016 – A relative discloses that one of the Chibok girls is found, pregnant, in a forest. Pressure increases on the Nigerian government to rescue the remaining missing girls.
• 14 August 2016 – Boko Haram video states that some of the Chibok girls have been killed in airstrikes. The militant group demands the release of extremists in exchange for the other girls’ freedom.
• 13 October 2016 – Spokesman for Nigeria’s president confirms that 21 Chibok schoolgirls have ben freed as a result of government negotiations with Boko Haram
• 5 November 2016 – Nigerian military announces the first army rescue of a Chibok girl, during a raid on a forest hideout.
• 24 December 2016 – Nigeria’s president declares that Boko Haram has been crushed as the militant group is driven from its last forest hideout.
• 5 January 2017 – Nigeria’s army states that soldiers have found one of the schoolgirls wandering in the bush near the forest stronghold.

Security Advisory: Cote d’Ivoire (13 January 2017)

Executive Summary

Gunfire erupted on Friday 13 January in Cote d’Ivoire’s second largest city, Bouake, ahead of talks between the Defense Minister and disgruntled soldiers who staged a two-day mutiny last week (6 – 7 January). A witness at the scene has reported that the shooting broke out near the cultural centre, where the leaders of the mutineers were due to meet with Defense Minister Alain-Richard Donwahi, during a protest by Bouake residents against the revolt. It has been reported that soldiers began firing in the air during the protest and at least 100 heavily armed mutineers then poured into the city centre aboard pickups, military transport trucks and other vehicles. So far there have been no reports of any injuries or deaths.

Security Advisory

Violence appears to have erupted again in Bouake and it may spread further across the country. In order to prepare for civil disorder we recommend the following immediate action:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff and report daily
• Book all staff off site and back daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times
• Ensure all staff have adequate air time and have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

Europe in the Grip of the Cold: Victims and Economic Damages Throughout the Continent

Since the beginning of January it has been an emergency in most part of the European continent as a polar cold wave has overwhelmed most countries. The bitter cold air has plunged southward into Eastern Europe from northern Russia and the Artic region, and has been stuck in place with a vortex of cold pressure causing continuous heavy snow for days. This weather is causing particular hardship among migrants, the homeless and the elderly. The freeze gripping has caused so far 61 deaths, a third of those in Poland where ten people died of cold just on Sunday. Deaths have been reported also in Italy, Serbia, Czech Republic, Macedonia, Albania and Greece.

In Italy the situation is critical. The cold has made eight victims, and the lowest temperature of -24 has been reached in the northeast. The South has been particularly hit, with major railways and motorways interrupted, causing inconveniencies in the circulation. Moreover, many small town and villages are still isolated because of the snow, especially in the Apulia, Basilicata and Calabria. In the rest of south-eastern Europe conditions are even worst. In Romania the bitter cold has led to travel delays, power outages and a surge in demand for natural gas and power. Several Serbian municipalities have declared emergency measures to battle the extreme weather and dozens of villages in the south have been cut off by high snowdrifts. In Albania it snowed in the southern city of Saranda for the first time in 32 years, and six people have died so far for the frigid weather. Also three people have been found dead in the past three days in Macedonia as temperatures plunged to -20 C.

The extreme cold has also worsened the condition of thousands of migrants stuck in the Balkans and Greece, not prepared for this kind of weather whatsoever. The worst situation is registered in Lesbos Island, which is currently home to more than 4,000 people in the Moira refugee camp. Roland Schönbauer, a spokesman for the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has declared on Monday this week that the organization was transferring some 120 vulnerable men, women and children, including people still living in tents, to hotels following the storm. However, according to volunteers there are still thousands of refugees living in outdoor tents in the camp, despite the Greece’s minister for migration Yiannis Mouzalas told journalists at a news conference on Thursday that “no refugees or migrants are living in the cold anymore”. Nevertheless, few cases of hypothermia have been reported in the last days, because many people don’t have proper winter clothes yet. For this reason Amnesty International is campaigning for asylum seekers to be transferred from the Greek islands to the mainland, for the temperature are expected to drop again. But transfers to the mainland are only allowed after people have completed the registration process, which has been delayed by a number of factors, including a shortage of spaces on the mainland.

The agricultural sector is the one more damaged by snowfalls and frost across Europe. In the cultivation area in the Austrian state of Styria initial estimates indicate €100 million in damages for the fruit sector alone. In Italy the Italian agricultural organization Coldiretti reported that the fruit cultivation has suffered inestimable damages from the weather circumstances. The most affected camps have been those of tomatoes, courgette and eggplants. Also grapes have been heavily damaged, especially in the region Apulia. Substantial damages to the sector have been reported also in Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia.

Security Advisory: Cote d’Ivoire (12 January 2017)

Executive Summary

Following last weekend’s (6 – 7 January 2017) military mutiny and negotiated settlement, there are reports of resumed military discontent purportedly as payments have not been made as promised. President Alassane Ouattara has also changed three senior security force commanders, putting the Army, Gendarmerie and Police under new leadership. The combined effect has produced a lot of tension and it is not unlikely that events will once again overspill into violence. Our concern is the effects of this on regional operators not only in terms of the military action that could be taken but the lawlessness that could pervade in the absence of proper policing and proper support structures such as the Gendarmerie and Army.

Security Advisory

The situation across Cote d’Ivoire remains fluid and violence could erupt again if the demands of the mutineers are not met soon. In order to prepare for civil disorder we recommend the following immediate action:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff and report daily
• Book all staff off site and back daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times
• Ensure all staff have adequate air time and have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.