MS Risk Blog

Iraqi Military Announces New Offensive Near Border with Syria

The Iraqi military announced late last week that it has launched a new offensive that aims to re-capture western towns near the border with Syria from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.

The operation will involve army and federal police units along with tribal fighters who will target the towns of Aanah, Rawa and al-Qaim, which lie along the River Euphrates. The first target of the offensive will be town of Aanah, which is located about 240 km (150 miles) northwest of Baghdad. Troops then aim to advance westwards along the Euphrates towards Rawa and then al-Qaim, which is located 330 km from Baghdad and which is next to a key crossing on the border with Syria. The offensive comes as government forces continue to battle IS militants for control of the northern city of Mosul.

On 5 January, Lt Gen Qassem Mohammedi, head of the military’s Jazeera Operations Command, disclosed “our forces started advancing from Haditha towards Aanah from several directions.”

Meanwhile on 4 January, a senor Iraqi commander disclosed that 65 – 70% of eastern Mosul had been recaptured and that troops expected to reach the banks of the River Tigris in the city centre within days. Lt Gen Talib Shaghati, head of the elite Counter-Terrorism Service, has indicated that IS had carried out hundreds of suicide car bomb attacks since the assault began 11 weeks ago in an attempt to hold on to its last major urban stronghold in Iraq. A spokesman for the US-led multinational coalition supporting the offensive disclosed that troops had made significant progress since launching a new phase on 29 December, when they began synchronising attacks on three axes and the number of coalition military advisers was doubled to about 450.

Last year, government forces drove IS out of much of Anbark province, in a move that saw them retake the major cities of Ramadi and Falluja, however large parts of the vast desert region remain under the control of the jihadist group.

Celebrating Christmas in the Middle East

December 25^th is a special day in the Christian calendar across the globe, including the estimated 12 million Christians of the Middle East. Prince Charles dedicated his annual Christmas message to religious persecution around the world. He opened by quoting a Jesuit priest from Syria who told him it’s possible there will be no Christians in Iraq within five years. This Christmas brought hope and joy to some in the region, but for many across the Middle East festivities are marred by violence and destruction, bleakness and fear.

In Iraq

In Baghdad, commercial streets such as Karada, al-Mansour, Palestine and Zaytouna are adorned with Christmas trees and Santa Claus. Zawraa park in the centre of the city is home to a giant, 85-foot Christmas tree donated by a Muslim businessman to help the Iraqi people ‘forget their anguish.’ Across the Iraqi capital, Muslims are celebrating Christmas in unity with the Christians. However, amongst the seeming unity in Baghdad, Iraqi officials say separate bombings in and around the city have killed at least 11 civilians and wounded 34 others.

In the recently liberated, ancient Christian town of Bartella, Christmas was celebrated for the first time in over two years. Hundreds of Christians travelled to the city in buses, coming mostly from camps for the displaced set up in the city of Irbil. As mass was celebrated, dozens of Iraqi and US security forces were on standby to protect worshipers at the historic, battle-scarred Mart Shmony Church. The church’s priest delivered a defiant message, ‘This is a message to the entire world that we Christians… are the inherent component of this country and we are staying.’ However, across Iraq many are unable to return to their villages liberated from IS. Tens of Thousands spent their Christmas living in tents in the freezing cold. Mosul’s Christians are celebrating their third Christmas in exile.

In Syria

Demographic expert Fabrice Balanche predict there are only 100,000 Christians remaining in Aleppo, less than half living in the city before the start of the war. This year, the remaining Christians in Aleppo celebrated under a giant Christmas tree lit up for the first time in five years.

In Israel and Palestine

Thousands descended upon Bethlehem to celebrate Christmas. A celebrator said ‘Christmas is for all Palestinians, regardless of religious affiliation, and is part of our national identity.’ However, the tensions within the state remained high. In Jerusalem, the rabbinate has issued a letter warning dozens of hotels in the city that it is forbidden by Jewish law to erect a tree. Meanwhile, Palestinian protesters dressed as Father Christmas were met with tear gas as they attempted to demonstrate against restrictions on movement between Bethlehem and Jerusalem. Some held signs saying ‘Santa Claus stands with Palestinian people’ during clashes with Israeli soldiers at Bethlehem’s checkpoint 300. Six people were injured.

In Jordan

Fuheis is usually at the heart of Jordanian Christmas celebrations, but this year its planned seasonal events have been abandoned following the deadly shootings in Karak. Elsewhere in the kingdom, Madaba and al-Hussen’s Christmas trees remain in darkness in mourning for the victims.

US Designates Bin Laden’s Son Global Terrorist

Last week, the United States officially designated Hamza bin Laden, a son of Osama Bin Laden, a global terrorist.

The US State Department has disclosed that it was in the process of notifying the international community that “Hamza bin Laden is actively engaged in Terrorism.” The official sanction effectively blocks him from any business dealings with US companies or holding property on US soil.

Hamza, who is now in his late 20s, was named an official member of al-Qaeda n 2015 and is seen as a possible successor to his father. He is the son of the former leader and Khairiah Sabar, one of Osama’s wives who was captured during the 2011 raid on his father’s Abbotabad compound in Pakistan. Hamza was not in the compound at the time of the raid, in which Osama bin Laden was killed.

In 2015, al-Qaeda released an audio message from Hamza, during which he called on followers in Kabul, Baghdad and Gaza to wage jihad on Washington, London, Paris and Tel Aviv. He now joins his half-brother Saad on the US sanctions list as a “specially designated global terrorist” – someone who threatens national security or the safety of US citizens.

Security Advisory Update – Cote d’Ivoire (9 January 2017)

Executive Summary

As of 8 January, roadblocks in the country’s main cities have been lifted and protests by disgruntled soldiers have ceased. The situation across the Cote d’Ivoire has returned to normal following the conclusion of negotiations between the government and soldiers.

MS Risk advises all travellers to the country to remain vigilant as tensions may flare up again over the coming days and weeks if an agreement reached between the soldiers and the government is not implemented quickly. We advise anyone in the country to monitor the local media and to avoid any protests and large gatherings, as they may turn violent with minimal notice.

Security Advisory

On 6 January 2017, a group of demobilized soldiers attacked three police stations and a petrol station in the town of Bouake, the second largest city, seizing weapons from the police. Throughout the day, there were reports of sporadic gunfire and access routes to the north and south of Bouake were blocked. There were also reports of shots being fired in Daloa, and a heightened military presence reported in Korhogo, with concerns that the violence was spreading to the remainder of the county. Over the next two days, soldiers at military camps and cities across the country joined the mutiny. Shots rang out at a military base in the commercial capital Abidjan on Saturday. Troops closed off a large junction near the Akouedo base, leaving all roads leading to the camp gridlocked with traffic and hampering access to a number of neighboring districts. There were also reports of similar protests erupted in a number of central and northern towns throughout the day, including in Man.

On 8 January, the country’s Defense Minister arrived in Bouake for talks with disgruntled soldiers. Hours later, officials announced that an agreement had been reached between the government and the soldiers. While initially, a mutineer close to the negotiations had disclosed that the soldiers were satisfied with the agreement, which would address demands for bonus payments and improve their living conditions, adding that the soldiers were now preparing to return to their barracks, some of the renegade troops later opened fire outside the house in Bouake where the negotiations had taken place. A number of local officials, including the defense minister, journalists and the mutineers’ own negotiations were trapped inside. They were only allowed to leave several hours later. A statement released by the defense ministry later denied that the defense minister had been held by the soldiers.

The streets of Bouake appeared calm on Sunday and the military presence was gone.   According to Sergeant Mamadou Kone, “we have cleared the corridors everywhere as promised and we have been in barracks since last night,” adding, “I confirm that all over the country all our men have returned to barracks and wait for their money. The mutiny is over for us.” He stated that the soldiers expect to be paid on Monday 9 January. Other cities across the country were also reported to be calm on Sunday, including in Abidjan, where a day earlier loyalist troops had deployed at strategic locations throughout the city. On the ground sources reported that residents rushed to supermarkets to purchase bottled water and other provisions in the event that the mutiny would last for days or weeks. There was no sign of any military presence on the streets of Abidjan on Sunday, with sources reporting that people were seen on the streets, shops were open and traffic moved as normal.

FN Leader Le Pen Calls for France to Leave Euro but Remain Linked

Last week, France’s far-right leader National Front (FN) Marine Le Pen outlined plans for France to leave the Euro should she win this year’s presidential election. However she proposed that Europe could return to a parallel Ecu-like common unit in a bid to soften the economic impact.

Ms Le Pen has vowed to pull France out of the euro for years however in remarks to Reuters news agency, she broadened her vision, suggesting that Europe could return to a basket of recognized national currencies, linked through a common currency system like the Ecu, which was used before the introduction of the single currency in 1999. Under this model, France could reintroduce a currency such as the franc, while maintaining economic relations with the eurozone.

Meanwhile a rival for the left-wing nomination, Arnaud Montebourg, has stated that he would impose a super-tax on banks to raise 5 billion euros (US $5.2 billion) if elected.

Polls currently indicate that conservative candidate Francois Fillon, who decisively won the centre-right nomination in the primary vote that was held in November, will likely face Ms Le Pen in the second round of voting.

French voters will elect a new president in April and May.