MS Risk Blog

Security Advisory: Cote d’Ivoire (13 January 2017)

Executive Summary

Gunfire erupted on Friday 13 January in Cote d’Ivoire’s second largest city, Bouake, ahead of talks between the Defense Minister and disgruntled soldiers who staged a two-day mutiny last week (6 – 7 January). A witness at the scene has reported that the shooting broke out near the cultural centre, where the leaders of the mutineers were due to meet with Defense Minister Alain-Richard Donwahi, during a protest by Bouake residents against the revolt. It has been reported that soldiers began firing in the air during the protest and at least 100 heavily armed mutineers then poured into the city centre aboard pickups, military transport trucks and other vehicles. So far there have been no reports of any injuries or deaths.

Security Advisory

Violence appears to have erupted again in Bouake and it may spread further across the country. In order to prepare for civil disorder we recommend the following immediate action:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff and report daily
• Book all staff off site and back daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times
• Ensure all staff have adequate air time and have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

Europe in the Grip of the Cold: Victims and Economic Damages Throughout the Continent

Since the beginning of January it has been an emergency in most part of the European continent as a polar cold wave has overwhelmed most countries. The bitter cold air has plunged southward into Eastern Europe from northern Russia and the Artic region, and has been stuck in place with a vortex of cold pressure causing continuous heavy snow for days. This weather is causing particular hardship among migrants, the homeless and the elderly. The freeze gripping has caused so far 61 deaths, a third of those in Poland where ten people died of cold just on Sunday. Deaths have been reported also in Italy, Serbia, Czech Republic, Macedonia, Albania and Greece.

In Italy the situation is critical. The cold has made eight victims, and the lowest temperature of -24 has been reached in the northeast. The South has been particularly hit, with major railways and motorways interrupted, causing inconveniencies in the circulation. Moreover, many small town and villages are still isolated because of the snow, especially in the Apulia, Basilicata and Calabria. In the rest of south-eastern Europe conditions are even worst. In Romania the bitter cold has led to travel delays, power outages and a surge in demand for natural gas and power. Several Serbian municipalities have declared emergency measures to battle the extreme weather and dozens of villages in the south have been cut off by high snowdrifts. In Albania it snowed in the southern city of Saranda for the first time in 32 years, and six people have died so far for the frigid weather. Also three people have been found dead in the past three days in Macedonia as temperatures plunged to -20 C.

The extreme cold has also worsened the condition of thousands of migrants stuck in the Balkans and Greece, not prepared for this kind of weather whatsoever. The worst situation is registered in Lesbos Island, which is currently home to more than 4,000 people in the Moira refugee camp. Roland Schönbauer, a spokesman for the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has declared on Monday this week that the organization was transferring some 120 vulnerable men, women and children, including people still living in tents, to hotels following the storm. However, according to volunteers there are still thousands of refugees living in outdoor tents in the camp, despite the Greece’s minister for migration Yiannis Mouzalas told journalists at a news conference on Thursday that “no refugees or migrants are living in the cold anymore”. Nevertheless, few cases of hypothermia have been reported in the last days, because many people don’t have proper winter clothes yet. For this reason Amnesty International is campaigning for asylum seekers to be transferred from the Greek islands to the mainland, for the temperature are expected to drop again. But transfers to the mainland are only allowed after people have completed the registration process, which has been delayed by a number of factors, including a shortage of spaces on the mainland.

The agricultural sector is the one more damaged by snowfalls and frost across Europe. In the cultivation area in the Austrian state of Styria initial estimates indicate €100 million in damages for the fruit sector alone. In Italy the Italian agricultural organization Coldiretti reported that the fruit cultivation has suffered inestimable damages from the weather circumstances. The most affected camps have been those of tomatoes, courgette and eggplants. Also grapes have been heavily damaged, especially in the region Apulia. Substantial damages to the sector have been reported also in Bulgaria, Croatia and Slovenia.

Security Advisory: Cote d’Ivoire (12 January 2017)

Executive Summary

Following last weekend’s (6 – 7 January 2017) military mutiny and negotiated settlement, there are reports of resumed military discontent purportedly as payments have not been made as promised. President Alassane Ouattara has also changed three senior security force commanders, putting the Army, Gendarmerie and Police under new leadership. The combined effect has produced a lot of tension and it is not unlikely that events will once again overspill into violence. Our concern is the effects of this on regional operators not only in terms of the military action that could be taken but the lawlessness that could pervade in the absence of proper policing and proper support structures such as the Gendarmerie and Army.

Security Advisory

The situation across Cote d’Ivoire remains fluid and violence could erupt again if the demands of the mutineers are not met soon. In order to prepare for civil disorder we recommend the following immediate action:

• Have a weeks supply of life support, including fuel
• Keep vehicles out of site in repair shops and stripped of valuables
• Be prepared to hand over vehicles if forced
• Keep a manifest of all staff and report daily
• Book all staff off site and back daily
• Do not go out before 0900 and be back by 1500 to avoid peak traffic and obvious car jacking times
• Ensure all staff have adequate air time and have emergency numbers and control post numbers to hand
• Establish a Duty Manager roster so that there is always a responder ready
• Email all movements to a central point so that there is a running record
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in Cote d’Ivoire and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

Iraqi Military Announces New Offensive Near Border with Syria

The Iraqi military announced late last week that it has launched a new offensive that aims to re-capture western towns near the border with Syria from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group.

The operation will involve army and federal police units along with tribal fighters who will target the towns of Aanah, Rawa and al-Qaim, which lie along the River Euphrates. The first target of the offensive will be town of Aanah, which is located about 240 km (150 miles) northwest of Baghdad. Troops then aim to advance westwards along the Euphrates towards Rawa and then al-Qaim, which is located 330 km from Baghdad and which is next to a key crossing on the border with Syria. The offensive comes as government forces continue to battle IS militants for control of the northern city of Mosul.

On 5 January, Lt Gen Qassem Mohammedi, head of the military’s Jazeera Operations Command, disclosed “our forces started advancing from Haditha towards Aanah from several directions.”

Meanwhile on 4 January, a senor Iraqi commander disclosed that 65 – 70% of eastern Mosul had been recaptured and that troops expected to reach the banks of the River Tigris in the city centre within days. Lt Gen Talib Shaghati, head of the elite Counter-Terrorism Service, has indicated that IS had carried out hundreds of suicide car bomb attacks since the assault began 11 weeks ago in an attempt to hold on to its last major urban stronghold in Iraq. A spokesman for the US-led multinational coalition supporting the offensive disclosed that troops had made significant progress since launching a new phase on 29 December, when they began synchronising attacks on three axes and the number of coalition military advisers was doubled to about 450.

Last year, government forces drove IS out of much of Anbark province, in a move that saw them retake the major cities of Ramadi and Falluja, however large parts of the vast desert region remain under the control of the jihadist group.

Celebrating Christmas in the Middle East

December 25^th is a special day in the Christian calendar across the globe, including the estimated 12 million Christians of the Middle East. Prince Charles dedicated his annual Christmas message to religious persecution around the world. He opened by quoting a Jesuit priest from Syria who told him it’s possible there will be no Christians in Iraq within five years. This Christmas brought hope and joy to some in the region, but for many across the Middle East festivities are marred by violence and destruction, bleakness and fear.

In Iraq

In Baghdad, commercial streets such as Karada, al-Mansour, Palestine and Zaytouna are adorned with Christmas trees and Santa Claus. Zawraa park in the centre of the city is home to a giant, 85-foot Christmas tree donated by a Muslim businessman to help the Iraqi people ‘forget their anguish.’ Across the Iraqi capital, Muslims are celebrating Christmas in unity with the Christians. However, amongst the seeming unity in Baghdad, Iraqi officials say separate bombings in and around the city have killed at least 11 civilians and wounded 34 others.

In the recently liberated, ancient Christian town of Bartella, Christmas was celebrated for the first time in over two years. Hundreds of Christians travelled to the city in buses, coming mostly from camps for the displaced set up in the city of Irbil. As mass was celebrated, dozens of Iraqi and US security forces were on standby to protect worshipers at the historic, battle-scarred Mart Shmony Church. The church’s priest delivered a defiant message, ‘This is a message to the entire world that we Christians… are the inherent component of this country and we are staying.’ However, across Iraq many are unable to return to their villages liberated from IS. Tens of Thousands spent their Christmas living in tents in the freezing cold. Mosul’s Christians are celebrating their third Christmas in exile.

In Syria

Demographic expert Fabrice Balanche predict there are only 100,000 Christians remaining in Aleppo, less than half living in the city before the start of the war. This year, the remaining Christians in Aleppo celebrated under a giant Christmas tree lit up for the first time in five years.

In Israel and Palestine

Thousands descended upon Bethlehem to celebrate Christmas. A celebrator said ‘Christmas is for all Palestinians, regardless of religious affiliation, and is part of our national identity.’ However, the tensions within the state remained high. In Jerusalem, the rabbinate has issued a letter warning dozens of hotels in the city that it is forbidden by Jewish law to erect a tree. Meanwhile, Palestinian protesters dressed as Father Christmas were met with tear gas as they attempted to demonstrate against restrictions on movement between Bethlehem and Jerusalem. Some held signs saying ‘Santa Claus stands with Palestinian people’ during clashes with Israeli soldiers at Bethlehem’s checkpoint 300. Six people were injured.

In Jordan

Fuheis is usually at the heart of Jordanian Christmas celebrations, but this year its planned seasonal events have been abandoned following the deadly shootings in Karak. Elsewhere in the kingdom, Madaba and al-Hussen’s Christmas trees remain in darkness in mourning for the victims.