MS Risk Blog

US Bombed Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria and Yemen in 2016

According to an analysis of American strikes around the world, in 2016, the United States dropped an average of 72 bombs every day – the equivalent of three an hour. The report, which was released by the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), comes as President Barack Obama finishes up his presidency – one that began with promises to withdraw from international conflicts.

According to the New York City-based think tank, 26,171 bombs were dropped on Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Somali and Pakistan during last year, with the CFR warning that its estimates were “undoubtedly low, considering reliable date is only available for airstrikes in Pakistan, Yemen, Somali and Libya, and a single ‘strike,’ according to the Pentagon’s definition, can involve multiple bombs or munitions.”

The CFR has reported that 24,287 bombs wee used in Iraq and Syria, where the US is helping drive Islamic State (IS) militants from swaths of both countries. According to the CFR, in 2015, the US dropped 22,110 bombs in Iraq and Syria. Last year also saw a sharp rise in strikes in Afghanistan, with 1,337 being recorded, compared with 947 in 2015. The study, which compiled data from a number of military and press sources, also indicated that three bombs were dropped in Pakistan last year; 14 in Somalia; and 34 in Yemen. A similar study in 2015 indicated that 11 bombs had been dropped in Pakistan during that year; 58 in Yemen; and 18 in Somalia. The 2015 analysis did not include Libya.

The One China Policy and China-Taiwan Relations

A new friction is triggered between China and the US when the US president-elect Donald Trump said that the “One China Policy” is up for negotiation. Following Trump’s phone conversation with the Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, China has become more suspicious of Taiwan’s intent of wanting to push for its independence and Trump grabs this opportunity to use as a bargaining chip against China. The Obama administration, on the other hand, has repeatedly reinforced the US commitment to “One China Policy”. According to Trump, this notion is likely to change under his administration unless Beijing agrees to alter its terms of trade with the US.

“The One China Policy” is a view that there is only one Chinese government and that the US has formal ties with China rather than Taiwan. China also holds that any country that wants diplomatic relationship with Mainland China must break official ties with Taipei. This has resulted in Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation from the international community. “The One China Policy” is, however, different from the “One China Principle” of the “1992 Consensus”, which urges that Taiwan and China are inalienable parts of a single China. The Consensus allows both Taiwan and China to agree that there is only one sovereign state of China but either cannot agree on which of the two governments is the legitimate government of the state.

Although the US, China and Taiwan, apparently, seem be pursuing their respective agendas in this friction, Taiwan should know better than to fully trust the new US administration in its suspected pursuit of independence. Trump, in his election campaign has often tried to portray the US on the loser end of US-China terms of trade, a position that he vows to change. This indicates that Taiwan will only be used as long as it can be used as a bargaining chip to potentially secure US trade advantages over China. Moreover, the Taiwanese President’s recent out-reach to Trump can only endanger Taiwan’s position in relation to China, but not as much, the vested stakes between the US and China relations. There is just too much to lose in the US-China trade relations if diplomacy gets bitter between the two super-powers.

In 2005, China’s parliament has passed an anti-cessation bill authorizing use of force if Taiwan declares independence. Taiwanese companies have invested over $49 billion in China and up to 1 million Taiwanese live in the Mainland. While Taiwanese may worry that their economy is dependent on China, but closer business ties makes Chinese military action on Taiwan less likely, but not necessarily impossible.

The US-China trade relations will unlikely be the lynchpin of China-Taiwan relations in the near future. The US jumping to seize the opportunity to challenge the “One China Policy” is more of a giveaway in negotiation with China because China already knows what is very important to the US and both the countries have mutual stakes in trade partnership. China in 2017 is not the China in 1958 when the Mainland bombarded the offshore islands held by the Nationalist troops in Taiwan, nearly sparking a war between the US and the Mainland. Taiwan being seen as a province of China continues to be an important agenda item of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and it can be said with much certainty that the Asian superpower will not subject itself to be compromised on national sovereignty over trade deals with the US or any country for that matter.

Status quo will, therefore, most likely prevail on the China-Taiwan relations now and in the near future with, however, intermittent escalation of political and military tensions. In terms of trade with the US, China will likely offset Trump’s rivalry with the Mainland with essentially economic strategies. These will soon enough get the US busy in battling China’s economic strategies and to see Taiwan as merely a futile factor to benefit from trade deals with China.

Security Advisory: The Gambia (18 January 2017)

Executive Summary

The incumbent President, Yahya Jammeh, continues to contest the 1 December 2016 preidential election results at the Supreme Court. Th President-elect, Mr Adama Barrow, has lft the country and is currently in neighboring Senegal. The Economic Community ofWest African States (ECOWAS) has stated that it may intervene, including possible military action, if President Jammeh does not step down on the scheduled handover date of 19 January 2017. Increasing international pressure to step down has resulted in President Jammeh declaring a state of emergency on 17 January. The following day, the National Assembly announced that the president could remain in office for a further three months.

The Gambian government is divided over this issue, and in recent days a number of ministers have resigned. There have also been reports of restrictive measures being imposed, including the shutting down of opposition radio stations and politically motivated arrests.

Security Advisory

Tensions remain high across the country and the ongoing political deadlock could lead to unrest. Due to the deteriorating political situation and potential military intervention following MS risk advises against all but essential travel to The Gambia. If you are currently in The Gambia, we advise that you should leave by commercial means if you have no essential need to remain. The potential for military intervention and civil disturbances remains high and this could result in Banjul International Airport being closed at short notice.

• Have a weeks supply of food and water as well as fuel
• Monitor travel advise and social media updates
• Avoid large crowds as they may turn violent with little notice
• Avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public
• You should expect to see increased government forces traffic and presence if tensions increase
• If you are a visitor, remain in contact with your airline/tour operator and insurer.
• If you are visiting and staying in a hotel, identify the emergency procedures in place

MS Risk continues to closely monitor the situation in The Gambia and we will issue further bulletins as more information becomes available.

Security Advisory: Mali (19 January 2017)

Executive Summary

At least fifty people were killed in a car bomb attack on a military base in northern Mali on Wednesday in what is one of the deadliest attacks on security forces in the country. Officials have disclosed that a vehicle packed with explosives detonated at a camp housing soldiers and members of rival armed groups in the region’s main city, Gao. The attack occurred around 9 AM (0900 GMT). Three days of national mourning have been declared.

Security Advisory

The northern Malian desert region has been restive since it was captured by militant Islamists in late 2012. While a French military intervention in 2013 ousted the militants from the main cities in the region, the area remains tense, with attacks being reported on a nearly weekly basis. Since 2015, the threat has spread to the rest of the country, particularly in the southern-most region of Sikasso, as well as in the capital city of Bamako, where terrorist attacks and banditry have become more frequently since Spring 2015. In recent months, the situation in Mali has deteriorated and there has been a rise attacks that have been reported in the central region of the country.

Attacks in Mali have targeted both civilians and the Malian Defense and Security Forces (MDSF) as well as United Nations peacekeepers deployed in the country (MINUSMA). Terrorists have targeted Malian government outposts and bases camps for MINUSMA.   In March 2016, heavily armed assailants attacked the European Union’s Training Mission (EUTM) headquarters and primary residence in Bamako. Furthermore, incidents in neighboring states, particularly Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast, have been linked to instability in Mali.

The deterioration of the security situation in central and northern Mali, coupled with inter-ethnic violence, are urgent issues that need to be addressed in order for stability in Mali to return. A major issue however has been the slow implementation of an agreement between the Malian government and coalition-armed groups.

Due to ongoing terrorist attacks and criminal violence, MS Risk continues to warn against all travel to the following regions of Mali:

• The provinces of Timbuktu, Kidal, Gao and Mopti
• Parts of the provinces of Kayes, Koulikoro and Segou

MS Risk currently advises against all but essential travel to the remainder of the country, including the capital Bamako. Mali remains under a state of emergency, which will be in place until 29 March 2017.

The security environment across the country remains fluid and the potential for attacks throughout Mali, including in Bamako, remains high. Terrorist groups in the region are intent on carrying out attacks and kidnapping Westerners. Terrorist targets could include government buildings, public areas such as bars, restaurants and tourist sites, as well as Western interests. Citizens of countries supporting the military intervention are at a particular risk, however all travellers should exercise increased vigilance.

Anyone currently in Mali is strongly advised to remain vigilant and aware of your surroundings at all times. We advise that you exercise caution, especially at night. Due to the ongoing state of emergency, heightened security measures are in place, including random identity checks and roadblocks. You are advised to carry identification and follow the instructions of local authorities at all times. When travelling, we advise that you use varied and unpredictable routes and schedules. You should exercise particular caution when travelling on motorways, in rural areas and in residential areas in Bamako – even during daylight hours. We advise that you avoid all road travel after dark.  

Bamako

Establishments in Bamako frequented by foreigners have been targeted by terrorist attacks. These attacks have caused deaths and injuries. If you are in Bamako, we advise that you avoid travelling in urban areas after dark, particularly in places that are frequented by foreigners.

Northern Mali

The threat of terrorism and kidnap is extremely high in northern Mali. Rebel forces, terrorist groups and criminal networks continue to operate relatively freely throughout this region and Malian security forces cannot ensure the safety of foreign travellers. The lack of infrastructure, reliable transportation, safe hotels and emergency services further exacerbate the security conditions in Northern Mali.

Kidnapping 

There is a high threat of kidnap throughout Mali but particularly in the northern regions of the country and in all border areas. Westerners are a preferred target. Some hostages have been detained for months before being released while some have been killed.

Border Areas with Ivory Coast

Since 25 June 2015, terrorist and criminal incidents have been reported in the border areas with the Ivory Coast. Clashes between Malian authorities and other armed groups have occurred in the Misseni and Fakola sectors.

French Military to Boost Defences Against Cyber Attacks

The French defense minister announced this month that France is no less vulnerable than the United States to cyber attacks from foreign countries, adding hat the military will boost its resources in order to defend against them.

During an interview with French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche, Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian stated that there is a real risk of cyber attacks on French civil infrastructure such as water, electricity, telecommunications and transport as well as against French democracy and the media. The statement comes as US intelligence agencies released a report indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin had directed a cyber campaign to help Republican Donald Trump’s electoral chances by discrediting Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential campaign. When asked whether France was immune from such attacks, Le Drian stated “no, of course not, we should not be naïve.” He went on to say that if the US election had indeed been manipulated, it would be an unbearable interference, as targeting a country’s electoral means attacking its democratic foundations and its sovereignty.

France has been affected by cyber attacks as in April 2015, hackers knocked French TV station TV5Monde off the air. French judicial sources later disclosed that Russian hackers linked to the Kremlin could have been behind the attack. France has now said that in 2016, it was the subject of 24,000 cyber attacks against defense targets and according to Le Drian, such attacks were doubling every year, noting that thousands of external attacks had been blocked, including attempts at disrupting France’s drone systems.

France will hold presidential elections in April – May. Leading conservative challenger Francois Fillon has stated that he wants to improve relations with Russia. He has in the past been praised by the Russian leader. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen also favours closer relations with Russia. However French-Russian relations have been strained by Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and over Russia’s role in the war in Syria. Furthermore, outgoing Socialist President Francois Hollande has cancelled the sale of warships to Russia. He also played a key role in imposing sanctions on Russia over Crimea.