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How Climate Change Fuels Terrorism

The Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change has warned that the impact of global warming will push immense refugee movements and that climate change, alone poses as the greatest security threat of the 21^st century. The United Nations (UN), The European Union (EU), the G7 and an increasing number of states have also identified climate change as a threat to global and national security. Studies have shown that the impacts of climate change tend to create conditions in which violent non-state actors including terrorists and insurgents thrive. While it has not been established yet if climate change can be directly attributed to the cause of terrorism, it has certainly been seen as a threat multiplier. Climate change blends with other existing threats in a region and largely increases the likelihood of violent conflicts.

The effects of climate change contribute to conflicts over natural resources and security of livelihood. Terrorists, therefore, can multiply and easily operate in regions already fragile from impacts of climate change, particularly, if the state has little or no authority in those areas. The deteriorating conditions that further question the state’s legitimacy in affected regions open up opportunities for a terrorist group to act as a state by providing basic services to people. By doing so, the terrorist group gains legitimacy and secures trust and support from the local population, thus strengthening foothold in the areas.

Climate change increasingly constrains the ability of states to render services and maintain stability. Extreme effects of climate change can significantly strain the relationship between governments and populations. Even a government’s slow and poor response to managing natural disasters and recovery from effects of climate change can weaken people’s trust on the state. This makes the population more vulnerable to seek alternative support from non-state actors that may employ violence to execute their agendas against the state. Also, in contemporary politics, there is a notion to perceive terrorists in the context of war on terrorism, thus dismissing or undermining what conditions are essentially facilitating proliferation of these formidable enemies.

The conditions of the region around Lake Chad effectively portray how climate change fuels terrorism. Prolonged drought in the region has significantly shrunk Lake Chad, which happens to be the main source of livelihood for millions of dwellers in the area. The scarcity of resources and security of livelihood as a result of shrinkage have exacerbated frictions between pastoralists, famers and fishermen. The drought pushing poverty even further has given a fertile ground for the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram (BH) to thrive and challenge the state authorities in the region. The desperate need for survival in the face of extreme poverty, already made worse by the impacts of climate change in the Lake Chad region has subjected young population vulnerable to recruitment by BH and illicit employments linked to armed conflict, human trafficking and also massive cross border displacements.

Lake Chad has consistently been the main source of irrigation and freshwater for livestock. The lake has also been a source of livelihoods for about 30 million people settled along its shores. With the increasing population, the demand for water has gone up. However, over the past 50 years, ineffective conservation of water and effects of climate change with rising temperature and inconsistent rainfall have shrunk the lake’s surface by 90 percent. According to United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), about 50 percent of the shrinkage is caused by climate change.

As a result of decreasing water level, natural resources in the Chad basin have also reduced, which means, less availability of fresh water, decreased fish stocks, loss of vegetation and depleted grazing lands. All these effects together with an increasing population have, therefore, compromised food security. These impacts have also changed settlements along the lake’s wetlands, which serve farmers as fallback areas for crop cultivation in times of drought. As the wetlands degrade, the local populations migrate in search of new fertile soils and better fishing grounds, thus moving closer to the shore lines for cultivation. Simultaneously, pastoralists also migrate to the shores in search of grazing grounds and water. Consequently, the strain on remaining resources and rivalry between various groups of settlers often leads to violent conflicts. In Niger, an increasing conflict between migrant fishermen and local law enforcers has been seen since the 1980s. In Nigeria, recurring clashes between nomadic herders and famers over land around Lake Chad have resulted in many casualties. Local political authorities have demonstrated little interest in resolving these farmer-herder disputes. Also, as the military and state security forces are seen as very corrupt and unable to curb the outbreak of violence, trust in the government has weakened. Conditions as such, therefore, have helped BH to mobilize support of the local population, commit acts of violence and engage in organized criminal activities.

The prolonged drought in Syria is another example that effectively suggests how climate change fuels terrorism. Syria’s water system has already been vulnerable before the country was hit by drought in 2007. An increasing population and years of ineffective conservation of water have strained the country’s water system. With the drought, excessive use of groundwater and dam projects in Turkey have reduced the availability of fresh water in Syria. In the country’s northeast, nearly 1.3 million people, dependent on agriculture, have experienced crop failure and herders have lost nearly 85 percent of their livestock. These massive losses have triggered a migration of people to the cities, which have already been overcrowded with the influx of about 1.5 million Iraqi refugees. The effects are increasing number of crimes, food price hikes and strained urban infrastructure. Also, the Syrian government has undermined the drought and failed to adopt necessary measures to address the effects of the drought. As a result, protests against the regime begin to spread across the country in Dara’a, Damascus, Hama and Aleppo. The urban populations witnessing the regime’s reluctance to support the displaced rural migrants and address the strain they put on urban infrastructure have joined the protests. The movement has quickly escalated into sectarian conflicts. In the midst of the chaos, Syrian rebel groups and terrorists such as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could easily gain control over unstable territories. The Syrian regime’s failure to provide security and relief to the population affected by drought has provided opportunities for ISIS to set up social services, execute irrigation projects and provide clean water to the people in affected areas. The arrangements have also made it easier for ISIS to recruit from the local population that has felt neglected and abandoned by the state.

The key takeaways, therefore, which, surface from the above as to how climate change fuels terrorism are as follows:

• When natural resources deplete, competing for the same resources can trigger instability in the region and subsequently violent conflicts amongst groups for survival;
• When climate change affects people who depend on natural resources for their livelihood, they become prone to mass migration or illegal sources of income;
• When the government fails to address the effects of extreme weather events and natural disasters, people become vulnerable to alternative incentives from violent non-state actors like terrorist groups;

US Government Contractor Arrested After NSA Leak Report

A United States government contractor has been arrested on suspicion of leaking top-secret information to a news outlet.

According to officials, Reality Leagh Winner, 25, allegedly removed classified material from a federal site in the state of Georgia. The charges were announced shortly after news website The Intercept published a National Security Agency briefing about alleged Russian meddling in last year’s US presidential election. The Trump administration has been seeking to fight leaks to the media.

According to the justice department, Ms Winner was arrested on 3 June. NBC News has reported that Ms Winner is a contractor with Pluribus International Corporation and had been employed at an NSA facility in Georgia since February. According to the network, the accused faces a count of “gathering, transmitting or losing defense information.” Ms Winner, who graduated from basic military training at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio Texas in 2011, was caught after investigators noticed that the leaked document appeared to have been folded or creased. According to an FBI affidavit in support of the arrest warrant, that suggested that it had been “printed and then carried out of a secured space.” The indictment further disclosed that investigators then determined that Ms Winner was one of only six people to have printed the document. Examination of her email on her desk computer further revealed that she had exchanged emails with the news outlet. The affidavit states that when confronted, Ms Winner admitted to printing the report despite not possessing a “need-to-know” about its content and said that she was aware that the information “could be used to the injury of the US and to the advantage of a foreign nation.”

The Intercept’s leaked document alleges that Moscow’s military intelligence services attempted cyber-attacks on at least one US voting software supplier just days before last November’s US Presidential election. It also accuses them of sending spear-phishing emails to more than 100 local election officials, however there is no suggestion in the document that the hackers were successful. The NSA file in question was apparently marked for declassification not before May 2042. American intelligence agencies have accused the Kremlin of trying to interfere in the election in a bid to ensure that Donald Trump beat Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton. Several congressional committees and the FBI are currently investigating the matter. President Trump however has repeatedly dismissed the story as “fake news,” arguing that the real scandal is how the allegations are being leaked to the media.

France’s Le Pen to Abandon “Frexit” and Franc Pitch

Britain’s Telegraph newspaper has quoted France’s National Front (FN) party’s chief economic strategist as stating that FN leader Marine Le Pen will abandon her pitch to leave the European Union (EU) and restore the French franc. This comes after Ms Le Pen disclosed on 19 May that the far-right party would begin debating its trademark anti-euro stance after parliamentary elections in June.

Bernard Monot, the party’s chief economic strategist, told The Telegraph that “there will be no Frexit. We have taken note of what the French people told us.” He was further quoted as stating, “I continue to think that the euro is not technically viable but it makes no sense for us to keep insisting stubbornly. From now on our policy will be to renegotiate the EU treaties to give us more control over our budget and banking regulations.” Rumours emerged shortly after the second round of the presidential election earlier this month that ditching the idea of leaving the EU and abandoning the euro would be necessary for the FN if it wants to win in the next presidential election five years from now.

Leaving the euro and the EU were key pledges of Ms Le Pen’s failed presidential bids in 2012 and this year. Opinion polls have shown that a majority of French voters are in favor of keeping the currency.

President Emmanuel Macron has sought to reinvigorate the Franco-German relationship, which lies at the heart of the EU. During the presidential election campaign, he warned that the euro may not exist in a decade if Paris and Berlin fail to bolster the currency union. Mr Macron beat Ms Le Pen in a 7 May run-off vote, however the long campaign exposed deep divisions over France’s role in Europe, immigration and policies to revive a sluggish economy bedevilled by high unemployment. The latest approval ratings for President Macron stand at 62% approval.

UN Votes in New Members of Security Council

On 2 June, the 193 – member United Nations General Assembly elected Equatorial Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Peru and Poland to the UN Security Council for a two-year term due to begin on 1 January 2018.

The Netherlands meanwhile was elected for a one-year term after it reached a deal with Italy last year to split a two-year term. Voting between the two countries was deadlocked last year. Italy and the Netherlands however later reached a deal, agreeing that Italy would serve on the Council for 2017 and then step down to allow the Netherlands to be elected for 2018.

While all the countries were running unopposed, they still required more than two-thirds of the overall vote in order to win a seat. Ivory Coast received 289 votes, Equatorial Guinea got 185, Kuwait received 188, Peru won 186, Poland received 190 while the Netherlands received 184 votes. The Council is made up of ten elected members, five voted on each year and five permanent veto-powers: The United Stats, Britain, France, China and Russia. The Council is the only UN body that can make legally binding decisions and has the power to impose sanctions and authorize the use of force. In order to ensure geographical representation to the Council, there are five seats apportioned for African and Asian states; one for Eastern European states; two for Latin American and Caribbean states and two for Western European and other states. Regional groups generally agree upon the candidates to put forward and competitive races for seats are increasingly are. Human rights activists however have stated that this was a “serious problem.” According to Human Rights Watch (HRW) UN Director Louis Charbonneau, “member states should be able to choose whether or not they trust a country like Equatorial Guinea with the maintenance of international peace and security,” adding “Equatorial Guinea is a country that has harassed human rights defenders and civil groups, often with arbitrary detentions.” He went on to say that “as the Security Council increasingly mainstreams the promotion of human rights, we hope Equatorial Guinea wont push back o undermine that.” The government of Equatorial Guinea has denied accusations of corruption and human rights abuses.

West Africa Seeking Funds for Anti-Islamist Force

According to Mali’s military chief, countries in West Africa’s Sahel Region are requesting 50 million euros (US $56 million) from the European Union (EU) in order to help set up a multinational force to take on Islamist militant groups that threaten the region. In recent years, the vast, arid zone has developed into a breeding ground for jihadist group, with some linked to al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. European countries, particularly France, are increasingly becoming concerned that these groups could directly threaten the European continent if left unchecked.

Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger – the so-called G5 Sahel countries – have proposed a regional task force designed to tackle the cross-border threat. Implementation of this plan however has lagged, partly due to funding issues. This month, Malian General Didier Dacko disclosed that “the council of ministers of the G5 Sahel countries is making a request to the European Union to financially support the deployment and functioning of the G5 Sahel Joint Force. The Malian military chief made the comments during a meeting in Mali’s capital Bamako between G5 Sahel military chiefs, EU diplomats and offices from France’s regional anti-militant force, Operation Barkhane.

Last year, the group proposed establishing special units, each composed of around 100 well-trained soldiers, capable of responding quickly to shifting threats, which would be deployed in areas where jihadist groups are known to operate. They would complement the efforts of regular armed forces, United Nations peacekeepers operation in Mali and Operation Barkhane, which has around 4,000 French troops who are deployed across the five Sahel countries.

In 2013, France spearheaded a military intervention, which successfully drove back militants who had seized Mali’s desert north a year earlier. Militants however continue to attack local security forces, UN peacekeepers and civilians targets across the region. Newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited Mali on his first trip outside of Europe last month, has reaffirmed Paris’ commitment to the region and has called on Germany and other European countries to increase military and development aid.