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EU’s Electoral Season: Is Italy Closer to Being the Next?

The last six months have been anything but easy for the Italian political system. Since Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned in December after the country’s voters rejected his constitutional reform package in a referendum, and Paolo Gentiloni replaced him the following month, Rome has had to face a lot of challenges, from financial issues among banks and large companies to pressure from the European Union to reduce Italy’s fiscal deficit. The constitutional referendum’s failure has just fueled the flame, aggravating tensions in the ruling center-left Democratic Party, which governs with support from small centrist parties, prompting some of its members to break off and form a new party.

To further complicate matters, Renzi has expressed his intention to return to the premiership, and he regained his post as head of the Democratic Party after winning his party’s primary the 30^th of April.

Though rumors of snap elections have been circulating in Italy since Renzi resigned, Italian President Sergio Mattarella said, since the very beginning, he would not dissolve the Parliament and authorize an early election unless lawmakers harmonize the disparate electoral laws governing the legislature’s two chambers. The Senate and the Chamber of Deputies have equal legislative powers, but their members are appointed by different mechanisms. As a result, different parties can win control of each chamber, complicating the legislative process. Early last month, the heads of the four major parties in parliament promised Mattarella they would hold a debate on a new electoral law in late in May.

Obviously, each of the four leading party (Five Star Movement, Democratic Party, Forza Italia and Northern League) pushed for the kind of reform it believes would best serve its interests. Renzi and the Five Star Movement, currently polling neck and neck with the Democratic Party, have both advocated instituting a majoritarian system that would grant bonus seats to the winning party. After all, they each hope to win enough of the vote to secure a single-party government. Smaller parties, on the other hand, prefer proportional systems and espouse allotting bonus seats to the winning coalition. A dissident faction in the Democratic Party also favors this idea since it would hurt the Five Star Movement, which has so far refused to form alliances with other parties, including the Northern League.

The 6^th of June the full assembly of Parliament’s lower chamber started discussing a proposal that seats political parties according to the percentage of overall votes they receive. Under the plan, parties would have to get at least 5 percent of the vote to get any seats at all. Opinion polls indicate that only four parties would exceed the bill’s 5 percent threshold. Democratic Party leader Matteo Renzi wanted to get support for a new electoral law as soon as possible, but the polls suggested the system would not produce a majority government and parties should form coalitions,

However, after just two days, the 8^th of June the deal between the Five Stars Movement and the Democratic Party on the electoral proposal unraveled, leading to calls for a snap election that could usher in more instability in the euro zone’s third largest economy. The accord collapsed after the PD lost a parliamentary vote on a minor, proposed amendment. As a result, the Five Stars Movement and the right-wing Northern League called for an immediate vote, and the ruling Democratic Party (PD) said it now seemed hard for the government to carry on. Nonetheless, the parties agreed to take the legislation back to a parliamentary committee to resume the negotiations, but comments from leaders held out little hope of progress.

On the markets, Italian bonds and stocks rose as investors bet the breakdown of the accord would reduce the risk of early elections this year, with opinion polls pointing to an inconclusive outcome.

Should Italian lawmakers fail to introduce a new electoral law by March 2018, the deadline for dissolving Parliament, the country can still hold elections under the existing laws. Doing so, however, could put different parties in control of each chamber of the legislature, thereby complicating Italy’s policymaking process. On the other hand, even if Italy’s lawmakers settle on a new electoral law, though, the government will likely postpone the vote until the end of the year at the earliest. The Italian Constitution stipulates that the government must wait at least 45 days after dissolving Parliament to hold a new vote. In mid-October, the government will have to present its 2018 budget to Parliament. Considering the pressure the EU Commission has put on Italy to cut spending and increase taxes, the country’s major political parties may opt to delay the vote and let Gentiloni take the fall for introducing austerity measures.

Regardless of when the vote occurs, Italy’s next general election will pose yet another challenge for the eurozone. Of the four most popular Italian parties, only the Northern League has demanded a referendum on Italy’s membership in the eurozone. The Five Star Movement has so far made no mention of a referendum in its electoral platform, though its leader, Beppe Grillo, has called for the country to pull out of the eurozone. Forza Italia has blamed the euro for Italy’s weak economic growth and suggested reintroducing the lira as a parallel currency. The Democratic Party is the only leading political group in Italy that explicitly supports the European Union, and even so, Renzi has often criticized Brussels’ push for austerity and attacked EU officials.

Whether it happens sooner or later, the upcoming election in Italy will be a crucial test for the eurozone. The country has the second highest public debt in the currency area and the highest debt level in absolute terms. Its economy has barely grown over the past decade, and its unemployment rate has stayed high, yet its ossified political institutions keep much-needed economic reforms at bay. More important, surveys suggest that support for the euro is especially low among Italian voters, relative to those elsewhere on the Continent. As a result, even the country’s most pro-European politicians are critical of the bloc.

Middle East Countries Cut Ties with Qatar

On 5 June, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain severed their ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism in a move that is likely to open up the worst rift in years amongst some of the most powerful states in the Arab world.   Hours later, Yemen and Libya’s eastern-based government also announced that they were severing ties with Qatar.

Announcing the closure of transport ties with Qatar, the three Gulf States gave Qatari visitors and residents two weeks to leave. Qatar was also expelled from the Saudi-led coalition that is fighting in Yemen. Abu Dhabi’s state-owned Etihad Airways, Dubai’s Emirates Airlines and budget carrier Flydubai have also announced that they would suspend all flights to and from Doha from the morning of Tuesday 6 June until further notice. Qatar Airways has stated on its official website that it has suspended all flights to Saudi Arabia.

Gulf Arab states and Egypt have already long resented Qatar’s support for Islamists, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, which they regard as a dangerous political enemy. Saudi Arabia accused Qatar of backing militant groups, some of which have been backed by regional arch-rival Iran, and broadcasting their ideology, in what appears to be a reference to Qatar’s influence state-owned satellite channel al-Jazeera. Saudi state news agency SPA reported that “(Qatar) embraces multiple terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at disturbing stability in the region, including the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS (Islamic State) and al-Qaeda, and promotes the message and schemes of these groups through their media constantly.” Saudi Arabia further accused Qatar of supporting what it described as Iranian-backed militants in its restive and largely Shi’ite Muslim populated Eastern region of Qatif and in Bahrain.   Meanwhile Iran immediately blamed US President Donald Trump for setting the stage during his recent trip to Riyadh. The announcement comes just ten days after President Donald Trump visited Riyadh to call on Muslim countries to stand united against Islamist extrmeists and singling out Iran as a key source of funding and support for militant groups.

This latest move is more severe than a previous eight-month rift that occurred in 2014, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Doha. At the time, they alleged that Qatar was supporting militant groups. During that period however travel links were maintained and Qataris were not expelled.

A split between Doha and its closest allies can have repercussions for the wider Middle Eastern region, where Gulf States have used their financial political power to influence events in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Furthermore, the move may threaten Qatar’s international prestige, as the country hosts a large US military base and is due to hold the 2022 World Cup. In turn, Qatar has for years presented itself as a regional mediator and power broker.

French Parliamentary Election: Oversees Voters Overwhelmingly Back President Macron’s Party

France’s overseas voters have overwhelmingly backed candidates for the nascent party of its new President Emmanuel Macron.

According to the results, candidates for La Republique en Marche (LREM) came first in ten of the eleven seats given to France’s 1.3 million expatriates. France’s expatriates are divided amongst eleven constituencies, which were created in legislative redistricting in 2010. Their geographical distance means that they vote early. Critics have questioned the wisdom of announcing the results so early, stating that it could affect the domestic vote.

Opinion polls at home in France also give President Macron’s movement a clear lead in elections, which are due to begin on Sunday 11 June. Currently, the LREM has no parliamentary seats and most of the president’s candidates are political novices. On Tuesday, a survey of voter intentions for the coming legislative elections showed that the president’s party is set to win the biggest parliamentary majority for a French president since Charles de Gaulle’s 1968 landslide. The Ipsos Sopra-Steria poll found that the LREM party was seen scoring 29.5 percent of the vote in the 11 June first round. The poll further showed that with a solid lead ahead of other parties, LREM would go on to win 385 – 415 seats out of 577 in the lower house of parliament in a second round of voting, to be held on 18 June. The projected majority fits with a Cevipof survey for Le Monde that was published on 2 June and would be the strongest since voters rallied behind former president De Gaulle in 1968 after student revolts and nationwide general strikes. The conservative Republicans and their allies are seen winning 23 percent, with the National Front (FN) winning 17 percent, the hard-left France Unbowed at 12.5 percent and the Socialists at 8.5 percent. LREM’s first round lead has narrowed from 31 percent the last time the poll was conducted a week after President Macron’s former campaign chief, who is now a cabinet minister, came under investigation for past financial dealings. The investigation into the activities of Richard Ferrand took a new turn on Tuesday as a media report indicated that investigators had raided a business headquarters linked to their inquiries.
Gaining a legislative majority would complete President Macron’s ground-shaking realignment of French politics. Furthermore, it would enable him to begin work on his programme of reforming the French labour market, reviving the economy and pushing for reform of the European Union (EU).

Amnesty International Reports France Using State of Emergency Against Peaceful Protests

Amnesty International has reported that officials in France have used the state of emergency, which was imposed after the Paris attack of November 2015, in a bid to curb peaceful demonstrations. The rights group has indicated that hundreds of decrees wee issued under the emergency laws, banning public assemblies or individuals from protests.

According to a report compiled by Amnesty, between November 2015 and 5 May 2017, there were 155 decrees issued under the emergency powers prohibiting public assemblies. It goes on to state that there were also 639 measures aimed at preventing individuals from taking part in public assemblies, the majority of them related to protests against proposed labour law reforms. In a statement, Amnesty’s research Marco Perolini disclosed that “emergency laws intended to protect the French people from the threat of terrorism are instead being used to restrict their rights to protest peacefully,” adding “under the cover of the state of emergency, rights to protest have been stripped away with hundreds of activists, environmentalists, and labour rights campaigners unjustifiably banned from participating in protests.” Amnesty also reported that security forces used “unnecessary or excessive force” against peaceful protesters “who did not appear to threaten public order.”

The state of emergency allows searches without a warrant and people to be placed under house arrest. It is set to expire on 15 July, however President Emmanuel Macron has already disclosed that he will ask parliament to extend it for the sixth time until November. The measure was introduced in the wake of the attacks on 13 November 2015, when militants from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group killed 130 people in gun and bomb attacks around the capital.

Update: London Terror Attack

Twelve people have been arrested after the London terror attack on Saturday 3 June, which left seven people dead and 48 injured. The attack has since been claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, however they have provided nothing to back the claim.

Witnesses reporting a van travelling at high speed along London Bridge, hitting pedestrians at 21:58 BST on Saturday before crashing close to the Barrowboy and Banker pup. Three men then got out of the van and proceeded to stab people in nearby Borough Market. Witnesses at the scene reported the men wearing vests, which later were found to be hoaxes. The attackers were shot dead by eight officers who fired 50 bullets. A member of the public was accidentally shot. The three attackers were shot dead within eight minutes of the first 999 call being received.

The arrests occurred in Barking, east London, and follow a raid at a flat belonging to one of the three attackers. Of the twelve people arrested over the weekend, seven are women. A 55-year-old man has since been released without charge.

This is the third terror attack to occur in the UK in the past three months and comes after the car and knife attack that occurred in Westminster in March, in which five people were killed, and the Manchester bombing less than two weeks ago, in which 22 people were killed. While most political parties have suspended national general election campaigning, the prime minister confirmed that full campaigning would resume on Monday, with the general election to go ahead as planned on Thursday.

Prime Minister Theresa May has condemned the attack, stating that it was “time to say enough is enough.” The sense across London and the UK is that many are fed up with such attacks, a similar sense that is being felt across Europe as well. Terrorism against soft targets is beginning to feel, to some people, like the new normal – a brutal reality of the type of threat that jihadists have sought to achieve in all their attacks across Europe.  Since 2013, security services in the UK have foiled eighteen plots, with officials reporting that a large proportion of those have involved suspects who set out to commit acts of violence similar to the attack on Westminster Bridge and London Bridge. While plans to use bombs, such as the one used in the Manchester Arena attack last month, are rarer as plotters need to have technical skills for such an attack, attacking people with cars and knives is far easier and has long been encouraged by IS and other jihadist groups.

Over the weekend, supporters of IS celebrated the London attack, even before the terrorist group claimed responsibility. While IS did not claim responsibility for the attack until overnight 4 – 5 June, there was little doubt within the British intelligence community that this was a jihadist attack inspired by IS. Saturday’s attack follows a widely-circulated propaganda message that was posted by the group on social media urging its followers to attack civilians in the West using trucks, knives or guns. The message also makes reference to the current Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Last year, attacks intensified during the holy period, with deaths being reported in Istanbul, Dhaka and Baghdad. This increase in attacks is seen by analysts as a last desperate attempt by IS to its supporters, following multiple setbacks in the Middle East, where its self-proclaimed caliphate is rapidly shrinking. The ideology of IS however is likely to survive those defeats, and it is likely that it will continue to fuel terrorist attacks around the world for some time to come.