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France’s Le Pen to Abandon “Frexit” and Franc Pitch

Britain’s Telegraph newspaper has quoted France’s National Front (FN) party’s chief economic strategist as stating that FN leader Marine Le Pen will abandon her pitch to leave the European Union (EU) and restore the French franc. This comes after Ms Le Pen disclosed on 19 May that the far-right party would begin debating its trademark anti-euro stance after parliamentary elections in June.

Bernard Monot, the party’s chief economic strategist, told The Telegraph that “there will be no Frexit. We have taken note of what the French people told us.” He was further quoted as stating, “I continue to think that the euro is not technically viable but it makes no sense for us to keep insisting stubbornly. From now on our policy will be to renegotiate the EU treaties to give us more control over our budget and banking regulations.” Rumours emerged shortly after the second round of the presidential election earlier this month that ditching the idea of leaving the EU and abandoning the euro would be necessary for the FN if it wants to win in the next presidential election five years from now.

Leaving the euro and the EU were key pledges of Ms Le Pen’s failed presidential bids in 2012 and this year. Opinion polls have shown that a majority of French voters are in favor of keeping the currency.

President Emmanuel Macron has sought to reinvigorate the Franco-German relationship, which lies at the heart of the EU. During the presidential election campaign, he warned that the euro may not exist in a decade if Paris and Berlin fail to bolster the currency union. Mr Macron beat Ms Le Pen in a 7 May run-off vote, however the long campaign exposed deep divisions over France’s role in Europe, immigration and policies to revive a sluggish economy bedevilled by high unemployment. The latest approval ratings for President Macron stand at 62% approval.

UN Votes in New Members of Security Council

On 2 June, the 193 – member United Nations General Assembly elected Equatorial Guinea, Ivory Coast, Kuwait, Peru and Poland to the UN Security Council for a two-year term due to begin on 1 January 2018.

The Netherlands meanwhile was elected for a one-year term after it reached a deal with Italy last year to split a two-year term. Voting between the two countries was deadlocked last year. Italy and the Netherlands however later reached a deal, agreeing that Italy would serve on the Council for 2017 and then step down to allow the Netherlands to be elected for 2018.

While all the countries were running unopposed, they still required more than two-thirds of the overall vote in order to win a seat. Ivory Coast received 289 votes, Equatorial Guinea got 185, Kuwait received 188, Peru won 186, Poland received 190 while the Netherlands received 184 votes. The Council is made up of ten elected members, five voted on each year and five permanent veto-powers: The United Stats, Britain, France, China and Russia. The Council is the only UN body that can make legally binding decisions and has the power to impose sanctions and authorize the use of force. In order to ensure geographical representation to the Council, there are five seats apportioned for African and Asian states; one for Eastern European states; two for Latin American and Caribbean states and two for Western European and other states. Regional groups generally agree upon the candidates to put forward and competitive races for seats are increasingly are. Human rights activists however have stated that this was a “serious problem.” According to Human Rights Watch (HRW) UN Director Louis Charbonneau, “member states should be able to choose whether or not they trust a country like Equatorial Guinea with the maintenance of international peace and security,” adding “Equatorial Guinea is a country that has harassed human rights defenders and civil groups, often with arbitrary detentions.” He went on to say that “as the Security Council increasingly mainstreams the promotion of human rights, we hope Equatorial Guinea wont push back o undermine that.” The government of Equatorial Guinea has denied accusations of corruption and human rights abuses.

West Africa Seeking Funds for Anti-Islamist Force

According to Mali’s military chief, countries in West Africa’s Sahel Region are requesting 50 million euros (US $56 million) from the European Union (EU) in order to help set up a multinational force to take on Islamist militant groups that threaten the region. In recent years, the vast, arid zone has developed into a breeding ground for jihadist group, with some linked to al-Qaeda and the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. European countries, particularly France, are increasingly becoming concerned that these groups could directly threaten the European continent if left unchecked.

Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger – the so-called G5 Sahel countries – have proposed a regional task force designed to tackle the cross-border threat. Implementation of this plan however has lagged, partly due to funding issues. This month, Malian General Didier Dacko disclosed that “the council of ministers of the G5 Sahel countries is making a request to the European Union to financially support the deployment and functioning of the G5 Sahel Joint Force. The Malian military chief made the comments during a meeting in Mali’s capital Bamako between G5 Sahel military chiefs, EU diplomats and offices from France’s regional anti-militant force, Operation Barkhane.

Last year, the group proposed establishing special units, each composed of around 100 well-trained soldiers, capable of responding quickly to shifting threats, which would be deployed in areas where jihadist groups are known to operate. They would complement the efforts of regular armed forces, United Nations peacekeepers operation in Mali and Operation Barkhane, which has around 4,000 French troops who are deployed across the five Sahel countries.

In 2013, France spearheaded a military intervention, which successfully drove back militants who had seized Mali’s desert north a year earlier. Militants however continue to attack local security forces, UN peacekeepers and civilians targets across the region. Newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited Mali on his first trip outside of Europe last month, has reaffirmed Paris’ commitment to the region and has called on Germany and other European countries to increase military and development aid.

EU’s Electoral Season: Is Italy Closer to Being the Next?

The last six months have been anything but easy for the Italian political system. Since Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned in December after the country’s voters rejected his constitutional reform package in a referendum, and Paolo Gentiloni replaced him the following month, Rome has had to face a lot of challenges, from financial issues among banks and large companies to pressure from the European Union to reduce Italy’s fiscal deficit. The constitutional referendum’s failure has just fueled the flame, aggravating tensions in the ruling center-left Democratic Party, which governs with support from small centrist parties, prompting some of its members to break off and form a new party.

To further complicate matters, Renzi has expressed his intention to return to the premiership, and he regained his post as head of the Democratic Party after winning his party’s primary the 30^th of April.

Though rumors of snap elections have been circulating in Italy since Renzi resigned, Italian President Sergio Mattarella said, since the very beginning, he would not dissolve the Parliament and authorize an early election unless lawmakers harmonize the disparate electoral laws governing the legislature’s two chambers. The Senate and the Chamber of Deputies have equal legislative powers, but their members are appointed by different mechanisms. As a result, different parties can win control of each chamber, complicating the legislative process. Early last month, the heads of the four major parties in parliament promised Mattarella they would hold a debate on a new electoral law in late in May.

Obviously, each of the four leading party (Five Star Movement, Democratic Party, Forza Italia and Northern League) pushed for the kind of reform it believes would best serve its interests. Renzi and the Five Star Movement, currently polling neck and neck with the Democratic Party, have both advocated instituting a majoritarian system that would grant bonus seats to the winning party. After all, they each hope to win enough of the vote to secure a single-party government. Smaller parties, on the other hand, prefer proportional systems and espouse allotting bonus seats to the winning coalition. A dissident faction in the Democratic Party also favors this idea since it would hurt the Five Star Movement, which has so far refused to form alliances with other parties, including the Northern League.

The 6^th of June the full assembly of Parliament’s lower chamber started discussing a proposal that seats political parties according to the percentage of overall votes they receive. Under the plan, parties would have to get at least 5 percent of the vote to get any seats at all. Opinion polls indicate that only four parties would exceed the bill’s 5 percent threshold. Democratic Party leader Matteo Renzi wanted to get support for a new electoral law as soon as possible, but the polls suggested the system would not produce a majority government and parties should form coalitions,

However, after just two days, the 8^th of June the deal between the Five Stars Movement and the Democratic Party on the electoral proposal unraveled, leading to calls for a snap election that could usher in more instability in the euro zone’s third largest economy. The accord collapsed after the PD lost a parliamentary vote on a minor, proposed amendment. As a result, the Five Stars Movement and the right-wing Northern League called for an immediate vote, and the ruling Democratic Party (PD) said it now seemed hard for the government to carry on. Nonetheless, the parties agreed to take the legislation back to a parliamentary committee to resume the negotiations, but comments from leaders held out little hope of progress.

On the markets, Italian bonds and stocks rose as investors bet the breakdown of the accord would reduce the risk of early elections this year, with opinion polls pointing to an inconclusive outcome.

Should Italian lawmakers fail to introduce a new electoral law by March 2018, the deadline for dissolving Parliament, the country can still hold elections under the existing laws. Doing so, however, could put different parties in control of each chamber of the legislature, thereby complicating Italy’s policymaking process. On the other hand, even if Italy’s lawmakers settle on a new electoral law, though, the government will likely postpone the vote until the end of the year at the earliest. The Italian Constitution stipulates that the government must wait at least 45 days after dissolving Parliament to hold a new vote. In mid-October, the government will have to present its 2018 budget to Parliament. Considering the pressure the EU Commission has put on Italy to cut spending and increase taxes, the country’s major political parties may opt to delay the vote and let Gentiloni take the fall for introducing austerity measures.

Regardless of when the vote occurs, Italy’s next general election will pose yet another challenge for the eurozone. Of the four most popular Italian parties, only the Northern League has demanded a referendum on Italy’s membership in the eurozone. The Five Star Movement has so far made no mention of a referendum in its electoral platform, though its leader, Beppe Grillo, has called for the country to pull out of the eurozone. Forza Italia has blamed the euro for Italy’s weak economic growth and suggested reintroducing the lira as a parallel currency. The Democratic Party is the only leading political group in Italy that explicitly supports the European Union, and even so, Renzi has often criticized Brussels’ push for austerity and attacked EU officials.

Whether it happens sooner or later, the upcoming election in Italy will be a crucial test for the eurozone. The country has the second highest public debt in the currency area and the highest debt level in absolute terms. Its economy has barely grown over the past decade, and its unemployment rate has stayed high, yet its ossified political institutions keep much-needed economic reforms at bay. More important, surveys suggest that support for the euro is especially low among Italian voters, relative to those elsewhere on the Continent. As a result, even the country’s most pro-European politicians are critical of the bloc.

Middle East Countries Cut Ties with Qatar

On 5 June, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain severed their ties with Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism in a move that is likely to open up the worst rift in years amongst some of the most powerful states in the Arab world.   Hours later, Yemen and Libya’s eastern-based government also announced that they were severing ties with Qatar.

Announcing the closure of transport ties with Qatar, the three Gulf States gave Qatari visitors and residents two weeks to leave. Qatar was also expelled from the Saudi-led coalition that is fighting in Yemen. Abu Dhabi’s state-owned Etihad Airways, Dubai’s Emirates Airlines and budget carrier Flydubai have also announced that they would suspend all flights to and from Doha from the morning of Tuesday 6 June until further notice. Qatar Airways has stated on its official website that it has suspended all flights to Saudi Arabia.

Gulf Arab states and Egypt have already long resented Qatar’s support for Islamists, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, which they regard as a dangerous political enemy. Saudi Arabia accused Qatar of backing militant groups, some of which have been backed by regional arch-rival Iran, and broadcasting their ideology, in what appears to be a reference to Qatar’s influence state-owned satellite channel al-Jazeera. Saudi state news agency SPA reported that “(Qatar) embraces multiple terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at disturbing stability in the region, including the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS (Islamic State) and al-Qaeda, and promotes the message and schemes of these groups through their media constantly.” Saudi Arabia further accused Qatar of supporting what it described as Iranian-backed militants in its restive and largely Shi’ite Muslim populated Eastern region of Qatif and in Bahrain.   Meanwhile Iran immediately blamed US President Donald Trump for setting the stage during his recent trip to Riyadh. The announcement comes just ten days after President Donald Trump visited Riyadh to call on Muslim countries to stand united against Islamist extrmeists and singling out Iran as a key source of funding and support for militant groups.

This latest move is more severe than a previous eight-month rift that occurred in 2014, when Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE withdrew their ambassadors from Doha. At the time, they alleged that Qatar was supporting militant groups. During that period however travel links were maintained and Qataris were not expelled.

A split between Doha and its closest allies can have repercussions for the wider Middle Eastern region, where Gulf States have used their financial political power to influence events in Libya, Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Furthermore, the move may threaten Qatar’s international prestige, as the country hosts a large US military base and is due to hold the 2022 World Cup. In turn, Qatar has for years presented itself as a regional mediator and power broker.