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US Student Released by North Korea

A US student was freed this month by North Korea after spending eighteen months in prison, with his family stating that he has been in a coma for a year.

The parents of Otto Warmbier, 22, confirmed shortly after he was released that he was in a coma, stating that he was “brutalized” by a “pariah regime.” The 22-year-old is currently being treated in a US hospital after the flight carrying him landed in Ohio on 13 June.

Mr Warmbier was sentenced to fifteen years of hard labour for attempting to steal a propaganda sign from a hotel. He was in North Korea as a tourist with Young Pioneer Tours when he was arrested on 2 January 2016. He appeared emotional at a news conference a month later, in which he tearfully confessed to trying to take the sign as a “trophy” for a US church, adding, “the aim of my task was to harm the motivation and work ethnic of the Korean people.” Foreign detainees in North Korea have previously recanted confessions, stating that they were made under pressure. After a short trial on 16 March, Mr Warmbier was given a 15-year prison sentence for crimes against the state. Early last month, his parents told CNN that they had had no contact with their son for more than a year.

News of his coma was released on 13 June, with Mr and Mrs Warmbier disclosing in statement “Sadly, he is in a coma and we have been told he has been in that condition since March 2016. We learned of this only one week ago.” They were quoted by the Washington Post as saying that they had been told that Otto had contracted botulism, a rare illness that causes paralysis, soon after his trial in March 2016. North Korea has stated that he was given a sleeping pill after becoming ill after his trial last year and did not wake up. Sources however have indicated that it remains to be seen if Mr Warmbier’s illness is the direct result of brutality in prison, with some stating that there may be added pressure on US President Donald Trump to take action against Kim Jong-un’s regime.

Who Else is Detained in North Korea?

There are reported to be three other US citizens currently in custody in North Korea. They are:

• Kim Dong-chul, a 62-year-old naturalized US citizen born in South Korea, who was sentenced in April 2016 to ten years of hard labour for spying.
• Korean-American professor Kim Sang-duk (or Tony Kim) who was detained in April 2017. The reasons for his arrest currently remain unclear.
• Kim Hak-song, like Kim Sang-duk, worked at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology (PUST) and was detained in May 2017 on suspicion of “hostile acts” against the state.

The latest arrests have come at a time of heightened tensions between North Korea and the US and its regional neighbours. In the past, the Untied States has accused North Korea of detaining its citizens in a bid to use them as pawns in negotiations over its nuclear weapons programme.

Mali Security Advisory: 19 June 2017

Mali’s security minister reported on 19 June that Malian security forces have killed four militants involved in an attack on Sunday on a luxury resort popular with Western expatriates located outside of the capital Bamako. Security Minister Salif Traore told Radio France International “this was without doubt a terrorist attack…The anti-terrorist forces arrived on the scene immediately afterwards….” Traore added that five other attack suspects have been detained. On Sunday night, the authorities reported that at least two people were killed in the attack. One of those killed was a French-Gabonese citizen. A Malian soldier was also killed. Officials have reported that 36 hostages were freed after the operation.

The attack occurred at Le Campement Kangaba in Dougourakoro, near Bamako. It comes after the US Embassy in Bamako last week warned of an increased threat of attacks in the capital city. So far no group has claimed responsibility for Sunday’s attack, however it comes at a time when the security situation in Mali has been deteriorating. While attacks were initially concentrated in the northern desert region, in recent months, attacks have increasingly struck the central and southern regions of the country.

MS Risk advises against all but essential travel to Bamako, as there may be further attacks and extremists may target Westerners for kidnap. Anyone currently in Bamako is advised to avoid the area due to the ongoing security threat. MS Risk advises that you seek the advice of local authorities. Major hotels in the area are likely to be under a lockdown, and you should adhere to the advice of hotel staff and security. Anyone in the capital city is advised to remain alert as further incidents in other areas frequented by foreigners may be targeted. Please be advised that a curfew and possible restrictions on bridge crossings and and routes in and around Bamako. Expect heavy security forces presence. While no intelligence is known to exist to indicate secondary attacks, it would be prudent to evaluate the local security situation and disposition of resources across the region. MS Risk is currently monitoring the situation and will release further alerts as more information becomes available.

Terror Attacks During Ramadan

As in previous Ramadan periods, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group has again encouraged its followers to step up attacks during this holy period. This year, it has called for attacks to take place in Europe, Russia, Australia, the US, Iran, Iraq, Syria and the Philippines.

The 2016 Ramadan period saw waves of deadly attacks globally, including a nightclub attack in Orlando, US that killed 49 people, an IS suicide bombing on a Christian village in northeastern Lebanon, an attack on the Istanbul airport that killed forty people, violence at a café in Bangladesh, which left at least twenty dead, and a truck bomb explosion in Baghdad that killed almost 300 people. As Ramadan was ending last July, Saudi Arabia was targeted by four suicide attacks. This year has also seen a string of deadly attacks, including a suicide bombing in Kabul, Afghanistan and a pair of attacks in Baghdad, as well as an attack on the London Bridge in the UK.

While the African continent was not directly named by IS this year, it has not been spared violence during the Ramadan period. Attacks last year were mostly concentrated in northeastern Nigeria and were carried out by Boko Haram. Both the US and UK warned last year of terror attacks in South Africa during Ramadan, with Embassies in the country predicting plans by Islamist extremist groups to attack shopping centres and the US military. No attacks were reported. This year, extremists have launched several attacks, including in Maiduguri, Nigeria and in Mogadishu, Somalia. The US Embassy in Bamako, Mali warned its citizens in a message released on 9 June 2017 of a possible increased threat of attacks against Western diplomatic missions, places of worship, and other locations in Bamako that are frequented by Westerners. The statement did not specifically mention a heightened threat of attacks during the Ramadan period.

With IS issuing a call for attacks on 12 June, well into the Ramadan period, there may be an increase in global attacks, with extremists responding to the latest call to terror.

IS Leader on the Run

Officials and experts are reporting that the leader of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is on the brink of losing the two main centres of his ‘caliphate,’ adding that while he is on the run, it may take years to capture or kill him.

IS fighters are close to defeat in the twin capitals of the group’s territory – Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria, with officials stating that Baghdadi is steering clear of both and is likely hiding in thousands of square miles of desert between the two capitals. In Iraq, the country’s forces have retaken much of Mosul, the northern Iraqi city, which the terror group seized in June 2014 and from which Baghdadi declared himself shortly afterwards “caliph,” or leader of all Muslims. Meanwhile Raqqa, his capital in Syria, is nearly surrounded by a coalition of Syrian Kurdish and Arab groups. The last public footage released of Baghdad shows him dressed in black clerical robes declaring his caliphate from the pulpit of Mosul’s medieval Grand al-Nuri mosque back in 2014.

According to Lahur Talabny, the head of counter-terrorism at the Kurdistan Regional Government, “in the end, he will either be killed or captured, he will not be able to remain under ground forever,” noting however that “…this is a few years away.” Hisham al-Hashimi, who advises Middle Eastern governments on IS affairs, has disclosed that one of Baghdadi’s main concerns will be to ensure that those around him do not betray him for the US $25 million reward that has been offered by the United States to bring him “to justice.” Hashimi further states that “with no land to rule openly, he can no longer claim the title caliph,” adding “he is a man on the run and the number of his supporters is shrinking as they lose territory.”

Who is Baghdadi?

Baghdadi, born Ibrahim al-Samarrai, is a 46-year-old Iraqi who broke away from al-Qaeda in 2013, just two years after the capture and killing of the group’s leader Osama bin Laden. Baghdadi grew up in a religious family. He studied Islamic Theology in Baghdad and joined the Salaafi jihadist insurgency in 2003 – the year of the US-led invasion in Iraq. He was caught by the Americans who released him about a year later after considering him to be a civilian rather than a military target. Hashimi has disclosed that Baghdadi is shy, adding that recently he has stuck to the sparsely populated Iraq-Syria border area, where drones and strangers are more easier to spot.

The United States Department of State’s Counter-Terrorism Rewards Programme had placed the same US $25 million bounty on Bin Laden and Iraqi former president Saddam Hussein. The rewards are still available for Bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri. While neither Saddam nor Bin Laden were voluntarily betrayed, the bounties did complicate their movements and communications. According to Fadhel Abu Ragheef, a Baghdad-based expert on extremist groups,” the reward creates worry and tension, it restricts his movements and limit the number of his guards,’ adding “he doesn’t stay more than 72 hours in any one place.” Luhur Talabany further notes that Baghdadi “has become nervous and very careful in his movements,” adding that “his circle of trust has become even smaller.” His last recorded speech was issued in early November 2016, two weeks after the start of the Mosul battle. During that speech, he urged his followers to fight the “unbelievers” and “make their blood flow as rivers.” US and Iraqi officials currently believe that Baghdadi has left operational commanders behind, with diehard followers to fight the battles in Mosul and Raqqa as he now focuses on his own survival. His current whereabouts however have been impossible to confirm. The last official report regarding his whereabouts was from the Iraqi military on 13 February 2017. The report disclosed that Iraqi F-16s carried out a strike on a house where he was thought to be meeting other commanders. The house is located in western Iraq, near the border with Syria.

Baghdadi does not use phones and has a handful number of approved couriers in order to communicate with his two main aides – Iyad al-Obiadi, his defense minister, and Ayad al-Jumaili, who is in charge of security. On 1 April, Iraq state TV reported that Jumaili had been killed, however there has been no confirmation of this report. Hashimi notes that Baghdadi moves in ordinary cars, or the kind of pick-up trucks used by farmers between hideouts that are located on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border, adding that he has just a driver and two bodyguards with him during the move. This region is well known to his fighters as the hotbed of the Sunni insurgency against US forces that invaded Iraq and later the Shi’ite-led governments that took over the country.

While it may take years to capture or kill Baghdadi, it is evident that he has had an influence in the region, and his legacy and that of IS is likely to ensure unless radical extremism as a whole is tackled.

Terrorist Attack in Mali – Security Advisory (18 June 2017)

A terror attack is currently underway at a luxury resort frequented by tourists near Bamako, Mali. Casualities and hostages have been reported. Security forces have indicated that operations against an unknown number of gunmen at Le Campement, which is located outside the capital Bamako, are ongoing. Le Campement Kangaba is currently blocked off. The EU Training Mission in Mali has described the attackers as “suspected jihadists,” adding that they are assisting the local forces. The resort is located in Dougourakoko, on the outskirts of the city, where the Radisson Blu hotel was the target of a previous terror atta ck in November 2015.

The rural resort is popular with Western tourists, expats and locals. It offers luxury accommodation, a spa and three swimming pools, as well as running excursions and sports for guests.

Anyone currently in Bamako is advised to avoid the area due to the ongoing security threat. MS Risk advises that you seek the advice of local authorities. Major hotels in the area are likely to be under a lockdown, and you should adhere to the advice of hotel staff and security. Anyone in the capital city is advised to remain alert as further incidents in other areas frequented by foreigners may be targeted. Please be advised that a curfew and possible restrictions on bridge crossings and and routes in and around Bamako. Expect heavy security forces presence. While no intelligence is known to exist to indicate secondary attacks, it would be prudent to evaluate the local security situation and disposition of resources across the region. MS Risk is currently monitoring the situation and will release further alerts as more information becomes available.