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UN Warns that Conflict is Spreading in West Africa

This month, the United Nations envoy for West Africa warned that the ongoing conflict in Mali is spilling over to neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, noting that a significant surge of attacks by extremist groups have been reported in recent months in the border areas. He further disclosed that insecurity in the Lake Chad basin, where Boko Haram remains active, is proving equally challenging.

Speaking to the UN Security Council, Mohamed Ibn Chambas disclosed that “efforts by member states in the region to deliver on development, improve infrastructure, create jobs and strengthen human security human security are being hampered by traditional and new drivers of conflict and insecurity,” adding that “terrorism and violent extremism, in addition to the humanitarian crisis and threats to state integrity that they generate, have exacerbated traditional threats.” Chambas noted that these factors, along with climate change, a growing youth population and lack of jobs, and unchecked urbanization are pushing a sure in migration and human trafficking.”

In the Sahel region, Chambas disclosed that deadly attacks along the border areas are having an impact on the local economy in the northern provinces of Burkina Faso and in the western regions of Niger. Chambas told the Council that “in the Sahel, persistent instability in Mali is spilling over to Burkina Faso and Niger, with deadly attacks along border area.” He went on to say that the Liptako Gourma region, which encompasses the border areas of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, “has seen a significant expansion of violent extremist and terrorist activities in the past months, including coordinated cross-border attacks against security posts and ransacking of border settlements.” He disclosed that violent extremist groups targeted Burkina Faso’s northern provinces of Soum, Loroum and Yatenga and Niger’s western regions of Tillaberi and Tahoua, which has had “detrimental effects on the local economy.”

Last month, the Security Council adopted a French-drafted resolution that welcomed the deployment of a 5,000-strong force set up by the three countries, along with Chad and Mauritania, to fight jihadists operating in the region. The resolution however fell short of a full UN authorization after the United States raised objections amidst concerns that UN member-states would need to provide funding for the Sahel force.

In January, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger agreed to pool their military and intelligence resources in order to address the cross-border crime, setting up a joint force in parallel with the Sahel operation. The UN has 12,500 troops and police who are serving in the MINUSMA force in Mali, which is considered to be the world body’s most dangerous peacekeeping mission. France also maintains 4,000 troops in the five Sahel countries as part of a counter-terror forces that has been deployed since its 2013 military intervention in Mali to drive out jihadist groups.

Lake Chad Basin

Speaking to the UN Security Council, Chambas also disclosed that the Lake Chad basin has also been affected.

According to Chambas, in the Lake Chad basin, which spans parts of seven countries, “an equally challenging pole of insecurity remains,” despite a multinational task force’s efforts that “have substantially degraded Boko Haram’s capabilities, shrunk its geographical reach, and freed thousands of captives.” He disclosed that recent attacks in Nigeria’s northeastern city of Maiduguri and in Niger’s eastern Diffa region “demonstrate that Boko Haram continues to pose a serious threat in the area,” adding “the mode and sophistication of these attacks have raised suspicions that the Boko Haram militants might have acquired reinforcements.”

West Africa and the Sahel region also face other pressing security threats, amongst them clashes between farmers and herders, transnational organized crime, drug and weapons smuggling and human trafficking. According to Chambas, drug smugglers, human traffickers and arms peddlers are able to crisscross the porous borders, effectively establishing a tentative presence before moving onwards to new zones of operation, adding that the countries of the Sahel are in need of “more support” to confront growing concerns over security.

US to Ban US Citizens from Traveling to North Korea

The United States is to ban its citizens from travelling to North Korea.

Koryo Tours and Young Pioneer Tours, who both operate in North Korea, disclosed last week that the ban would be announced on 27 July and will come into effect thirty days later. They have indicated that they were informed by the Swedish embassy, which conducts US affairs in North Korea as Washington has no diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.

Rowan Beard, of Young Pioneer Tours, has disclosed that the embassy was urging all US nationals to depart immediately, adding that the embassy was in the process of trying to check on the number of US tourists left in the country. In a statement, Young Pioneer Tours disclosed that “it is expected that the ban will come into force within 30 days of July 27^th,” adding “after the 30-day grace period any US national that travels to North Korea will have their passport invalidated by their government.” Mr Beard disclosed that the 30-day grace period would “give leeway for any (Americans) currently in the country as tourists or on humanitarian work.” Meanwhile Simon Cockerell, of Koryo Tours, disclosed that “it remains to be seen what the exact text is, but the indication is its just a straight up ban on Americans going.” Mr Cockerell added that the agency would still conduct tours and take Americans until the ban came into effect.

US officials have confirmed the ban to US media and have linked it to the death last month of jailed American student Otto Warmbier, however they have provided no details on date or scope. Associated Press news agency quoted US officials as stating that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had decided to implement a “geographical travel restriction” for North Korea, effectively meaning that the use of US passports to enter would be illegal.   Mr Warmbier travelled to North Korea with Young Pioneer Tours, he was arrested in 2016 for trying to steal a propaganda sign and sentenced to fifteen years in prison. He was returned to the US in a coma in June and died a week alter. After his death, the China-based Young Pioneer Tours announced that it would no longer take visitors from the US to North Korea.

It has been suggested that the US is using the date the ban is set to be announced, 27 July, in a bid to cloud North Korea’s Victory Day, which is on the same day.

Timing of Ban 

There has been movement towards a ban for while in the US, with the likelihood of such a decision increasing in the wake of Mr Warmbier’s death.

In May, two congressmen introduced the North Korea Travel Control bill to cut off the foreign currency the country earns from American tourists. The house foreign affairs subcommittee is scheduled to take up the draft legislation on 27 July however it would still have to go to the Senate. So there could be an executive order.

Apart from the treatment of Americans in North Korea, tensions have been increasing over Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. Earlier this month, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested what it said was its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) – the latest in a series of tests in defiance of a United Nations ban. While its range has been disputed, some experts have stated that it could reach Alaska. The US and South Korea then conducted a ballistic missile drill and issued a stark warning to North Korea.

How Many Americans Will Be Affected?

North Korea only relaxed its rules for American visitors in 2010. While the state department does not keep a record of the number of American tourists, tour operators have suggested that the figure is upwards of 1,000 every year.

What Happened to Otto Warmbier?

Mr Warmbier, 22, was an economics student who was arrested on 2 January 2016. He later confessed to trying to take a propaganda sign from a hotel. In March 2016 he was sentenced to 15 years of hard labour. In June 2017, North Korea stated that he had been in a coma for a year after contracting botulism. He was flow back to the US on 13 June but died a week later without regaining consciousness.   His family has rejected North Korea’s version of events, stating that he had been subjected to “awful torturous mistreatment.”

Americans Detained in North Korea

There are reported to be three US citizens in custody in North Korea:

• Kim Dong-chul – a 62-year old naturalized US citizen born in South Korea who was sentenced to ten years of hard labour in April 2016 for spying
• Kim Sang-duk (or Tony Kim) – a Korean-American professor who was detained in April 2017. The reasons for his arrest remain unclear
• Kim Hak-song – like Kim Sang-duk, he worked at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology (PUST) and was detained in May 2017 on suspicion of “hostile acts” against the state

In the past, the US has accused North Korea of detaining its citizens to use them as pawns in negotiations over its nuclear weapons programme.

Latest Poll Shows One in Eight People Who Voted for Trump is Having Second Thoughts

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll of 2016 voters, about one in eight people who voted for President Donald Trump have now stated that they are not sure they would do so again after witnessing his tumultuous first six months in office.

The poll surveyed voters who had told Reuters/Ipsos on Election Day how they had cast their ballots. While other surveys have measured varying levels of disillusionment amongst supporters of President Trump, the Reuters/Ipsos poll shows how many would go as far as changing the way that they voted. The survey was carried out first in May and then again in July.

In the July survey, 12 percent of responders stated that they would not vote for President Trump “if the 2016 presidential election were held today;” with 7 percent stating that they “don’t know” what they would do and the remaining 5 percent stating that they would either support one of the other 2016 presidential candidates or not vote. Eight-eight percent stated that they would vote for President Trump again – a slight improvement over the May figure which stood at 82 percent. Taken together, the polls suggest the President Trump’s standing with his base has improved slightly over the past few months despite the Republican Party’s repeated failures to overhaul the healthcare systems and multiple congressional and federal investigations into his campaign’s ties to Russia.

The minority of voters who supported President Trump and who have now said that they would not vote for him again gave varying reasons in interviews for whey they had changed their minds. Some were tired of his daily trolling of the Democrats, the media and the judiciary. Some were disappointed that the Trump administration has not yet swept illegal immigrants out of their communities, while others have stated that the president has not ended the mistrust and hyper-partisanship in Washington as much as they had hoped.

While most of the people who voted for Trump on 8 November stated that they would back him again, the erosion of support within his winning coalition of older, disaffected, mostly white voters poses a potential challenge for the president. President Trump, who won the White House with the slimmest of margins, needs every last supporter behind him to push his agenda through a divided Congress and potentially win a second term in office in 2020.

Latest Data Shows Number of Fatal Terrorist Attacks in Europe on the Rise

According to the latest data released by the Global Terrorism Database, the number of terrorist attacks resulting in fatalities in Western Europe increase in 2016, despite an overall decline in the number of incidents that occurred.

The latest data indicates that there were thirty such attacks, that resulted in fatalities, that occurred in Western Europe in 2016, compared to 23 that occurred in 2015. In 2014, there were two attacks across the region that resulted in fatalities, down from five that were reported in 2013. Additionally, terrorist attacks have become more deadly, with 26.5 people on average being killed in 2015 and 2016. This figure is up from an average of four a year in the preceding three years.

The deadliest incident recorded in Western Europe was the series of coordinated attacks on Paris, France in November 2015, which resulted in the deaths of 130 people. That attack was claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. Experts have disclosed that IS, which was responsible for seven of the ten deadliest attacks since 2012, was increasingly encouraging the use of knives and vehicles over firearms and explosives by their followers.

New Migrant Route Brining Refugees to Spain

The number of migrants crossing into Spain by sea from North Africa has doubled in 2017 compared to last year, effectively outpacing the Libya-Italy route as the fastest growing entry point to Europe.

The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has reported that the spike in migrant boats is already placing a lot of stress on Spain’s insufficient migration structures. According to the UNHCR, more than 360,000 refugees and migrants arrived on European shores across the Mediterranean in 2016, with many escaping conflicts and poverty. So far this year, more than 85,000 have reached Italy. Officials are now indicating that while the Italian sea route remains the most popular overall, with 59,000 migrants taking this route between January and May 2017 – up 32 percent from last year, the Spanish route further west is gathering steam, with 6,800 migrants using this route during the same period – an increase of 75 percent from 2016. Officials have added that in June, the trend was even more pronounced, as 1,900 migrants, mostly young men originating from Guinea, Ivory Coast, Gambia and Cameroon, reached the shores of the southern region of Andalusia, effectively quadrupling the numbers that were registered in the same month last year.

In West Africa, the number of migrants that have been spotted in the Agadez region of Niger, which is a key stop on the way to Libya from West Africa, has also dramatically fallen. Buba Fubareh, a 27-year-old mason from Banjul, Gambia, who tried and failed to get to Europe via Libya earlier this year, disclosed that “people are talking about going to Spain. It seems like it is safest to go through Morocco to Spain than through Libya. The difference is that Libya doesn’t have a president and Morocco does – there are no guns like in Libya.” Many African migrants who have passed through Libya have reported having been beaten up, detained in camps with no food or water and even traded as slaves before being held for ransom, forced labour or sexual exploitation.

Officials have also noted that a similar reorganization has also taken place within the Western Mediterranean route itself, with the Alboran Sea, which connects northeastern Morocco and southeastern Spain, being now more popular than the previously favoured Gibraltar strait or Ceuta and Melilla land borders where policing has increased. According to government data, migrant arrivals on the Spanish coastline averaged just under 5,000 a year between 2010 and 2016, down from a peak of 39,180 in 2006. Government data shows that it is on track to top 11,000 this year. The UNHCR has indicated that the country was unprepared to handle vulnerable groups, such as victims of trafficking or unaccompanied minors and refugees who should be channelled through asylum procedures. So far, Spain has given a lukewarm response to a request from Italy last month to fellow European union (EU) countries to allow rescue boats carrying African migrants across the Mediterranean to dock in their ports in a bid to help handle tens of thousands of arrivals. Spokeswoman for the UNHCR in Spain Maria Jesus Vega has stated that “what is clear is that, they (Spain’s government) have to get ready. They can’t be caught unprepared. What started happening elsewhere in Europe in 2015 cant be allowed to happen here,” adding “its not yet an emergency, but you have to take into account that there are no structures here to deal with more arrivals.”