US Chief States that IS Leader is ‘Alive’

This month, United States Defense Secretary General James Mattis disclosed that he believes the leader of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group hasn’t been killed, despite recent reports.

Last month, Russia’s military claimed to have killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an airstrike in May, after targeting a meeting of top IS commanders in Raqqa, Syria. The Russian claim could not be confirmed by the US at the time, with America’s military leading international efforts to defeat IS in Syria and Iraq. Earlier this month, just days after the liberation of Mosul, the group’s de facto capital in Iraq, a monitoring group disclosed that it had “confirmed information” al-Baghdadi was dead. The US again could not confirm the announcement by UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. However on Friday 21 July, US Defense Secretary General Mattis stated “I think Baghdadi’s alive…and I’ll believe otherwise when we know we’ve killed him,” adding “we are going after him but we assume he is alive.” His belief has been supported by Nicholas Rasmussen, the director of the US National Counter Terrorism Centre, who has stated, “I’ve seen nothing that would lead me to believe that the leader of ISIS (Islamic State) has been removed from the battlefield…We know a good bit. We just don’t have information that would confirm his death and demise.”

The US army’s General Raymond Thomas, who is the head of special operations, has admitted that the country’s military has come “particularly close” to getting al-Baghdadi in the past, but that he had slipped away. He blamed a media leak for ruining at least one promising lead.

Having lost control of Mosul, where al-Baghdadi declared the so-called IS caliphate in 2014, the group are also under increasing pressure in Raqqa, following the entrance of Western-backed forces into the city. The US government is offering up to US $25 million for information leading to al-Baghdadi’s location, arrest or conviction.

Interpol Circulates list of IS Fighters who May Launch Attacks in Europe

A list of 173 suspected Islamic State (IS) fighters – possibly trained to launch suicide attacks in Europe – has reportedly been circulated by Interpol. The world’s largest police organizations believes that the fighters may seek to “build and position improvise explosive devices in order to cause serious deaths an injuries.”

The report includes the name of the suspects, along with the date that each fighter was recruited by the terror group, where they pray and their last known address. The Guardian is reporting that the information was collected by US intelligence agencies during assaults on IS strongholds in Iraq and Syria. The newspaper has noted however that there is no evidence to suggest that any of those listed have entered Europe and that Interpol’s list is designed to gather further information about them from European Union (EU) intelligence sources. Officials are hoping that national police forces will be able to contribute details including the suspects’ passport numbers, biometric data and details of any border crossings that they make or crimes they commit.

In a statement, an Interpol spokesperson disclosed “Interpol regularly sends alerts and updates to its National Central Bureaus (NCB) on wanted terrorists and criminals via I-24/7, our secure global police communications network.” The statement goes on to say that “it is the member country, which provides the information that decides which other countries it can be shared with,” adding “the purpose of sending these alerts and updates is to ensure that vital policing information is made available when and where it is needed.”

Last year, Sky News obtained tens of thousands of documents containing the names, addresses, telephone numbers and family contacts of IS jihadis. The files identified a number of previously unknown jihadis in the United Kingdom, as well as across northern Europe, in much of the Middle East and North Africa, and in the United States and Canada.

Poland’s President Vetoes Judicial Reforms in Wake of Major Protests

On Monday 24 July, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced that he is vetoing a controversial law to replace Supreme Court judges with government nominees. The move comes after a number of major protests in the capital Warsaw, and with warnings from the European Union (EU).

In recent weeks, three key judicial reforms were passed by Poland’s parliament, which prompted days of demonstrations across the country. Before they become law, they are required to have approval by the president. On Monday, in a statement broadcast on national television, President Duda stated, “as president I don’t feel that this law would strengthen a sense of justice,” adding “these laws must be amended.” He went on to say that he was vetoing two of the new laws, but that he would approve the third, which effectively gives the justice minister the right to name the heads of Poland’s lower courts.

The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) government has strongly rejected claims that the reforms are a move towards authoritarian rule. It has now expressed disappointment at the president’s decision to wield a veto. While President Duda had already intervened last week in an attempt to find a compromise, his latest step does come as a surprise. Last week, the president’s initial compromise watered down the government’s bid to push through its nominees for the National Judiciary Council, by requiring the support of another political party. Opposition MPs have also praised the role of protesters in influencing the decision. Demonstrations have taken place in dozens of cities across the country, from Poznan and Lublin to Krakow, Gdansk and Warsaw and there have been calls for the protests to continue.

The changes also set Poland’s right-wing government on a collision course with the EU. The European Commission had threatened to impose sanctions this week if the reforms were not scrapped. European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, had warned of a “black scenario that could ultimately lead to the marginalisation of Poland in Europe.”

The Proposed Reforms 

Poland’s judicial system is widely seen as being slow, with reforms seen as being necessary. President Duda has stated, “I’m absolutely a supporter of this reform, but a wise reform.”

The three reforms give the justice minister and MPs broad powers and have prompted alarm from both the United States and the EU.

• The first reform requires that all Supreme Court judges to step down and gives the justice minister the power to decide who should stay on – vetoed by President Duda
• The second reform gives politicians control over who sits on the National Judiciary Council, which nominates Supreme Court judges – vetoed by President Duda
• The third reform gives the justice minister the right to select and dismiss judges in lower courts – passed by President Duda

What Next?

In theory, the Polish parliament could now challenge the president’s veto. The Law and Justice party has a simple majority in the lower house of parliament, known as the Sejm, but needs a three-fifths majority if it decides to reject President Duda’s decision. IT could theoretically achieve this with the support of a smaller party, such as Kukiz’15, however this is not seen as being certain. A more likely step would be to spend the next weeks redrafting the two bills that the president has turned down and seek his approval. While the protest movement has celebrated its success so far, demonstrators are now pushing for the president to veto the third reform as well. Much now will also depend on the man who is seen as the real power behind the government, Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

UN Warns that Conflict is Spreading in West Africa

This month, the United Nations envoy for West Africa warned that the ongoing conflict in Mali is spilling over to neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger, noting that a significant surge of attacks by extremist groups have been reported in recent months in the border areas. He further disclosed that insecurity in the Lake Chad basin, where Boko Haram remains active, is proving equally challenging.

Speaking to the UN Security Council, Mohamed Ibn Chambas disclosed that “efforts by member states in the region to deliver on development, improve infrastructure, create jobs and strengthen human security human security are being hampered by traditional and new drivers of conflict and insecurity,” adding that “terrorism and violent extremism, in addition to the humanitarian crisis and threats to state integrity that they generate, have exacerbated traditional threats.” Chambas noted that these factors, along with climate change, a growing youth population and lack of jobs, and unchecked urbanization are pushing a sure in migration and human trafficking.”

In the Sahel region, Chambas disclosed that deadly attacks along the border areas are having an impact on the local economy in the northern provinces of Burkina Faso and in the western regions of Niger. Chambas told the Council that “in the Sahel, persistent instability in Mali is spilling over to Burkina Faso and Niger, with deadly attacks along border area.” He went on to say that the Liptako Gourma region, which encompasses the border areas of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, “has seen a significant expansion of violent extremist and terrorist activities in the past months, including coordinated cross-border attacks against security posts and ransacking of border settlements.” He disclosed that violent extremist groups targeted Burkina Faso’s northern provinces of Soum, Loroum and Yatenga and Niger’s western regions of Tillaberi and Tahoua, which has had “detrimental effects on the local economy.”

Last month, the Security Council adopted a French-drafted resolution that welcomed the deployment of a 5,000-strong force set up by the three countries, along with Chad and Mauritania, to fight jihadists operating in the region. The resolution however fell short of a full UN authorization after the United States raised objections amidst concerns that UN member-states would need to provide funding for the Sahel force.

In January, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger agreed to pool their military and intelligence resources in order to address the cross-border crime, setting up a joint force in parallel with the Sahel operation. The UN has 12,500 troops and police who are serving in the MINUSMA force in Mali, which is considered to be the world body’s most dangerous peacekeeping mission. France also maintains 4,000 troops in the five Sahel countries as part of a counter-terror forces that has been deployed since its 2013 military intervention in Mali to drive out jihadist groups.

Lake Chad Basin

Speaking to the UN Security Council, Chambas also disclosed that the Lake Chad basin has also been affected.

According to Chambas, in the Lake Chad basin, which spans parts of seven countries, “an equally challenging pole of insecurity remains,” despite a multinational task force’s efforts that “have substantially degraded Boko Haram’s capabilities, shrunk its geographical reach, and freed thousands of captives.” He disclosed that recent attacks in Nigeria’s northeastern city of Maiduguri and in Niger’s eastern Diffa region “demonstrate that Boko Haram continues to pose a serious threat in the area,” adding “the mode and sophistication of these attacks have raised suspicions that the Boko Haram militants might have acquired reinforcements.”

West Africa and the Sahel region also face other pressing security threats, amongst them clashes between farmers and herders, transnational organized crime, drug and weapons smuggling and human trafficking. According to Chambas, drug smugglers, human traffickers and arms peddlers are able to crisscross the porous borders, effectively establishing a tentative presence before moving onwards to new zones of operation, adding that the countries of the Sahel are in need of “more support” to confront growing concerns over security.

US to Ban US Citizens from Traveling to North Korea

The United States is to ban its citizens from travelling to North Korea.

Koryo Tours and Young Pioneer Tours, who both operate in North Korea, disclosed last week that the ban would be announced on 27 July and will come into effect thirty days later. They have indicated that they were informed by the Swedish embassy, which conducts US affairs in North Korea as Washington has no diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.

Rowan Beard, of Young Pioneer Tours, has disclosed that the embassy was urging all US nationals to depart immediately, adding that the embassy was in the process of trying to check on the number of US tourists left in the country. In a statement, Young Pioneer Tours disclosed that “it is expected that the ban will come into force within 30 days of July 27^th,” adding “after the 30-day grace period any US national that travels to North Korea will have their passport invalidated by their government.” Mr Beard disclosed that the 30-day grace period would “give leeway for any (Americans) currently in the country as tourists or on humanitarian work.” Meanwhile Simon Cockerell, of Koryo Tours, disclosed that “it remains to be seen what the exact text is, but the indication is its just a straight up ban on Americans going.” Mr Cockerell added that the agency would still conduct tours and take Americans until the ban came into effect.

US officials have confirmed the ban to US media and have linked it to the death last month of jailed American student Otto Warmbier, however they have provided no details on date or scope. Associated Press news agency quoted US officials as stating that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had decided to implement a “geographical travel restriction” for North Korea, effectively meaning that the use of US passports to enter would be illegal.   Mr Warmbier travelled to North Korea with Young Pioneer Tours, he was arrested in 2016 for trying to steal a propaganda sign and sentenced to fifteen years in prison. He was returned to the US in a coma in June and died a week alter. After his death, the China-based Young Pioneer Tours announced that it would no longer take visitors from the US to North Korea.

It has been suggested that the US is using the date the ban is set to be announced, 27 July, in a bid to cloud North Korea’s Victory Day, which is on the same day.

Timing of Ban 

There has been movement towards a ban for while in the US, with the likelihood of such a decision increasing in the wake of Mr Warmbier’s death.

In May, two congressmen introduced the North Korea Travel Control bill to cut off the foreign currency the country earns from American tourists. The house foreign affairs subcommittee is scheduled to take up the draft legislation on 27 July however it would still have to go to the Senate. So there could be an executive order.

Apart from the treatment of Americans in North Korea, tensions have been increasing over Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. Earlier this month, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested what it said was its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) – the latest in a series of tests in defiance of a United Nations ban. While its range has been disputed, some experts have stated that it could reach Alaska. The US and South Korea then conducted a ballistic missile drill and issued a stark warning to North Korea.

How Many Americans Will Be Affected?

North Korea only relaxed its rules for American visitors in 2010. While the state department does not keep a record of the number of American tourists, tour operators have suggested that the figure is upwards of 1,000 every year.

What Happened to Otto Warmbier?

Mr Warmbier, 22, was an economics student who was arrested on 2 January 2016. He later confessed to trying to take a propaganda sign from a hotel. In March 2016 he was sentenced to 15 years of hard labour. In June 2017, North Korea stated that he had been in a coma for a year after contracting botulism. He was flow back to the US on 13 June but died a week later without regaining consciousness.   His family has rejected North Korea’s version of events, stating that he had been subjected to “awful torturous mistreatment.”

Americans Detained in North Korea

There are reported to be three US citizens in custody in North Korea:

• Kim Dong-chul – a 62-year old naturalized US citizen born in South Korea who was sentenced to ten years of hard labour in April 2016 for spying
• Kim Sang-duk (or Tony Kim) – a Korean-American professor who was detained in April 2017. The reasons for his arrest remain unclear
• Kim Hak-song – like Kim Sang-duk, he worked at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology (PUST) and was detained in May 2017 on suspicion of “hostile acts” against the state

In the past, the US has accused North Korea of detaining its citizens to use them as pawns in negotiations over its nuclear weapons programme.