MS Risk Blog

Somali Federal Government Close to Marking its First Anniversary

Nearly one year into its mandate, the internationally-backed government in Somalia continues to struggle as it’s first anniversary in power approaches.  Al-Qaeda-inspired fighters, breakaway regions, coupled with rival clans and an ongoing climate of insecurity are the continuing threats that are jeopardizing the current government’s initiatives of concluding decades of anarchy.  Although the current government was the first to attain global recognition since the collapse of the hardline regime in 1991, and has since seen billions in foreign aid being poured into the country, officials within the country have struggled to maintain security.  Somalia has taken steps forward, particularly in the coastal capital city of Mogadishu, which is now busy with laborers rebuilding after al-Shabaab fighters fled their city two years ago.  However the situation throughout the rest of the country continues to remain bleak.  Outside the city, the weak central government continues to maintain minimal influence as much of the country is fractured into autonomous regions, including the self-declared northern Somaliland.  Earlier this month, the northeast region of Puntland cut ties with the central government while in the far south, self-declared leaders in the Jubbaland region continue to defy Mogadishu’s authorities.  In turn, multiple armies are fighting for control of southern Somalia, including rival warlords, Islamist extremists and a national army that is backed by the 17,700-strong African Union (AU) force.  Al-Shabaab too remain powerful, despite losing a string of key towns and leaders, the terrorist group continues to carry out attacks.  A suicide attack on a UN compound in June of this year demonstrated al-Shabaab’s ability to strike at the heart of the capital’s most secure areas.  Last month, a report released by the UN Monitoring Group estimated that al-Shabaab still have some 5,000 militants within its group and that they remain the “principal threat to peace and security in Somalia.”  Aid workers are struggling to contain a dangerous outbreak of polio, with the UN warning that while more than one hundred cases have been recorded, there are “probably thousands more with the virus.”  Compounding the problem is an almost impossible environment for aid workers.  In a major blow this month, Doctors Without Borders (MSF), an aid agency used to working in the world’s most dangerous places, pulled out of Somalia after two decades of providing aid in the country.  The agency cited that it could no longer put up with a “barrage of attacks,” including kidnappings, threats, lootings and murder.  Over a million Somalis are refugees in surrounding nations and another million are displaced inside the country, often in terrible conditions, with the UN warning of “pervasive” sexual violence.

New al-Qaeda-Linked Alliance Wages Jihad on France

An al-Qaeda-linked militia that was founded by Islamist commander Mokhtar Belmokhtar announced on Thursday that it would be joining forces with another armed group in order to take revenge against France for its military offensive in Mali.  While this move is no surprise to analysts, as the two groups have previously collaborated in carrying out regional attacks, it does cement the fact that the Sahel region will remain the new focal point for global counter-insurgency efforts.

Reports surfaced on Thursday that Belmokhtar’s Mauritanian-based al-Mulathameen Brigade (the Brigade of the Masked Ones) along with Malian-based terrorist group Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is believed to be led by Ahmed Ould Amer, have joined forces under one banner in a bid to unite Muslims and to target French interests in the West African region.  In a statement that was published by Mauritanian news agency Nouakchott News Agency (ANI), the two groups indicated that “your brothers in MUJAO and al-Mulathameen announced their union and fusion in one movement called al-Murabitoun, to unify the ranks of Muslims around the same goal, from the Nile to the Atlantic.”  Belmokhtar and Ould Amer are said to have ceded control of al-Murabitoun to another leader.  Although he has not been named, reliable sources indicate that the new commander has fought against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980’s and the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in the 2000’s.  Reports also indicate that unlike the leaders of most of the armed organizations in the region, this new leader may not be Algerian.

The merger between the two groups was first reported by ANI, which has long been a reliable source of information pertaining to jihadist activities in West Africa.  In an excerpt of the group’s statement, Belmokhtar indicates that he decided not to assume the leadership of al-Murabitoun in order to “empower a new generation of leaders.”  Further excerpts of al-Murabitoun’s first statement also threaten France and its allies in the region and call upon Muslims to target French interests everywhere.  The document states that “we say to France and its allies in the region, receive the glad tidings of what will harm you, for the mujahideen have gathered against you and they pledged to deter your armies and destroy your plans and projects.  By the grace of Allah, they are more firm and strong in your face, and your new war only increased their certitude, resolve and determination.”

Previously believed to have been killed, Belmokhtar is a one-eyed Algerian former commander of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).  In 2003, he was designated a foreign terrorist by the United States, with the State Department offering a US $5 million reward for information that would lead to his capture.  He broke away from AQIM in 2012 in a bid to form a new group that would expand its beliefs of forming an Islamist state.  In March of this year, it had been reported that he was killed in action in northern Mali.  Although the reports of his death were announced by the Chadian military, they were never confirmed by France or the United States.  Currently Belmokhtar remains at large.  He is believed to be the mastermind behind January’s siege of an Algerian gas plant in which thirty-eight hostages were killed.  MUJAO is though to be led by Mauritanian ethnic Tuareg Ahmed Ould Amer, who goes by the nom de guerre “Ahmed Telmissi.”  The group also broke away from AQIM in mid-2011 with the apparent goal of spreading jihad into areas outside of AQIM’s scope.  It was one of a number of Islamist groups that occupied northern Mali last year and was responsible for imposing a strict interpretation of Islamic Sharia Law.

Despite previously separating themselves from AQIM, citing leadership issues and desires of expanding their control, both groups continued to cooperate and fight alongside AQIM fighters in Mali and in other regions of West Africa.  In late May of this year, the two groups targeted a military barracks in Agadez, Niger and a uranium mine in Arlit which supplies French nuclear reactors.  The attack in Agadez was reportedly executed by a five-man suicide assault team which resulted in the deaths of at least twenty people.  The attack in Arlit was reportedly carried out as a means of attempting to cripple France.  Shortly after the attacks, Belmokhtar indicated that the incidents had been carried out as a form of avenge for the death of Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, an AQIM commander who was killed by French forces in northern Mali earlier this year.  Consequently this merger comes with minimal surprise as MUJAO and Belmokhtar’s forces have already forged a working relationship.  Thursday’s announcement just makes this relationship official.  However many questions still linger as to whether such a merger will have any impact within a region that continues to be rocked by instability.

On the one hand, in examining Mali, the country no longer seems to be the central hub it was a year ago.  The recently held peaceful presidential elections, which resulted in the election of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, coupled with 12,600 UN troops that are stationed on the ground, are a move to fill the security vacuum and to stabilize the country by uniting the north and south.  However when looking at the greater Sahel region, many vulnerabilities continue to exist in a region of Africa that is sparsely populated and prone to poverty, food insecurity and estrangement from regional governments.  The Sahel region continues to see high threats of kidnap and terrorist attacks.  These threats, which were further heightened following the French military intervention in Mali, are highly likely to occur again.  Furthermore, there are currently at least thirteen hostages being held in the Sahel and surrounding regions, which includes Algeria, Cameroon, Libya and Nigeria.  Over the years, many have been killed and threats of kidnappings, especially of French and Western nationals, will likely continue.  The surrounding areas also contain threats that may lead to a further destabilization of the region.  Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram in Nigeria are waging their own wars at home.  While reports that Boko Haram militants may have been trained by al-Qaeda-linked operatives in Mali further fuels the notions the movement of terrorists in the Sahel and surrounding regions continues to be unaffected.  The militant groups now joining forces have gained reputations for evading capture and continuing to launch attacks despite security forces’ concentrated efforts to stop them.

On the other hand, given the long history of al-Qaeda-linked forces making and breaking alliances, the real question remains whether this official union will change anything.  Many doubt that al-Murabitoun can bring anything new to the table and that instead this could signify another reorganization in an attempt to strengthen the group, remain relevant and give it a new and better direction.   The timing of this announcement is also critical as it comes just two weeks after elections were held in Mali and a new President was selected.  This alliance may be an attempt to remind regional actors and international officials that while Mali has won a victory by carrying out successful elections, the war is far from over.

Suspected Chemical Weapons Use in Syria

22 August, 2013: Syrian opposition forces have made claims that the Assad government has conducted a massive chemical weapons attack in the East Ghouta region outside of Damascus, resulting in unconfirmed death tolls ranging from the hundreds to over 1,400. Rebel forces claim that rockets with toxic agents were launched early on Wednesday as part of a major bombardment. Limited evidence based on early testimony, photography and video has concluded that the reports are accurate. If the scale of the attack is confirmed, this incident could mark the largest chemical weapons attack since the 1988 Halabja Massacre in Iraq.

Still and video imagery taken from the region of the attack depict gruesome images of rooms full of dead children, and images of young victims twitching and struggling to breath. Close-up images reveal severely constricted pupils. Experts believe that it would be nearly impossible to fake so many dead and injured, including children and babies. The symptoms appear to be in line with use of the chemical weapon sarin.

Was it Sarin?

Sarin is a man-made liquid that can be converted to gas. It was originally developed as a pesticide in Germany in 1938, but is now classified as a nerve agent. Of the known agents used in chemical warfare, nerve agents are the most toxic and fast acting. In liquid form, pure sarin is a clear, colourless, tasteless, and odourless. It mixes easily with water, which could result in contamination of drinking water or foods grown in areas exposed to the agent. However, sarin can be evaporated into vapour (sarin gas), which can be released and spread into the environment, exposing people through breathing air, or exposing the agent to skin or eyes. Sarin is a heavy gas, meaning it is likely to settle in low-lying areas, creating greater risk exposure for individuals in low lying areas. Following exposure to sarin vapour, a person’s clothing absorbs and can release sarin, resulting in the possible exposure of the gas to others.  Exposure to large doses of sarin can cause convulsions, loss of consciousness, paralysis, and respiratory failure, possibly leading to death.

Doctors treating patients in the area have reported that the chemical solution contained “extremely high” concentrations of sarin, as opposed to more diluted attacks in previous months. The director of the Douma city medical office, calling himself Khaled ad-Doumi, stated “Atropine, the chemical used to curb the effects of these chemical attacks, has had only limited effects.” However, Gwyn Winfield, editor for a trade journal dedicated to unconventional weapons, does not believe that pure sarin was involved. After examining video and still images, Winfield noted the lack of mucus or saliva, stating “No doubt it’s a chemical release of some variety — and a military release of some variety … But it’s too weak for a pure sarin release.”

Still others do not believe that a nerve agent was released, but do agree that the attack was a chemical one.  Michael Ellman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies says,  an attack on this scale “would have had to involve a large amount of chemical agent, which means it would have had to be delivered in a very deliberate fashion, and that would be a strong indicator that it was deliberate use or not accidental use, or just spraying munitions, which may be what happened in the past – we don’t know.”

The Red Line

One year ago, the Obama administration declared a “red line” at the use of chemical weapons. In July 2012, the Syrian government admitted that Syria had stocks of chemical weapons. Opposition parties have accused the Assad regime of chemical weapons use on multiple occasions, however only a few of those attacks have been confirmed. Despite the evidence that chemical weapons were used, the US government has remained hesitant to engage in full-scale conflict over what they consider relatively small-scale incidents. The failure to react to these smaller incidents has ignited criticism from within the US government. Democrat Eliot Engel of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said, “If we are to salvage what remains of our credibility in the region, we must act soon.”

However, an attack on this scale could trigger outside intervention. UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said that if confirmed, the attacks indicate a “shocking escalation in the use of chemical weapons in Syria.” The US and UK, along with 33 UN member states, have called for a formal United Nations investigation.

A statement from U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon assured that a UN chemical weapons team in Damascus was discussing the matter with Syrian authorities. Chief U.N. Weapons Inspector Ake Sellstrom arrived in Syria on 18 August to investigate the alleged use of nerve gas in three other villages, including Khan al-Assal, where 26 people were killed in March. But it is unlikely that Syria will allow investigators to visit the East Ghouta region.

Stalemate

Timeliness is critical. The half-life of sarin gas is approximately 5 minutes, and other chemical weapons have a half life of approximately 30 minutes. Traces of the gas could disappear within days, and a delay in investigations means evidence of their dispersal methods could be removed. Still, while chemical experts may be able to identify the nature of the weapons used in the region, they will be unable to determine the party responsible for the attack. Some have questioned if the finding will still result in a net-zero impact.

The Syrian regime has called claims of the attack “absolutely baseless,” and insisted that the rebels either initiated the attack, or are lying to cover the number of losses they have recently experienced. Within the UN, member nations have reached a stalemate on actionable impact. China and Russia blocked the used of strong press statements condemning the Syrian government. The Russian foreign ministry has pointed out that the report coincided with the arrival the UN chemical weapons inspection team to Syria, saying, “This makes us think that we are once again dealing with a premeditated provocation.” In the past, China and Russia have vetoed UN efforts to impose penalties on Assad.

A watered down statement has been released by the UN, calling for a cessation of hostilities throughout Syria, where over 100,000 people have been killed in the past 28 months. It is uncertain how findings by UN weapons inspectors will impact international action in the region.

Doubts Emerge Over Death of Boko Haram Leader

Doubts have emerged this week over the Nigerian military’s claims that the leader of Islamist extremist group Boko Haram may have been killed.  Questions have been raised over the timing of the announcement, which came on the day that the Joint Task Force (JTF) concluded its work and handed over its duties to a newly created military division that has been charged with the battle to end Boko Haram’s four-year insurgency.

On Monday, a security task force in north-eastern Nigeria issued a statement indicating that Abubakar Shekau, who was declared a “global terrorist” by the United States, “may have died” from a gunshot wound after a clash with soldiers on Jun 30.”  The statement further noted that “it is greatly believed that Shekau may have died between 25 July to 3 August 2013” after being taken over the border into Amitchide in neighboring Cameroon.  The statement also indicated that an intelligence report suggests that Shekau was shot when soldiers raided a Boko Haram base at Sambisa Forest in north-eastern Nigeria.

However by Tuesday, local media reported that there had been increasing unease within the military pertaining to the claims.  Task force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa declined to comment when contacted about the statement, indicating only that he had left Maiduguri, which is the epicentre of Boko Haram’s insurgency and where the force was based.  National defence spokesman Brigadier General Chris Olukolade has also distanced himself from the statement.  Some sources have indicated that senior members within the military were unhappy with the release of the statement as there was not yet enough evidence to make such claims and that intelligence was still being analyzed.

Claims of Shekau’s death come one week after the Nigerian military stated that on 14 August, it had killed Boko Haram’s second-in-comment, Momodu Bama, also known by his alias “Abu Saad.”  However so far, there have been confirmations relating to his death.  In turn, a video message released on 12 August depicted a man who appeared to be Shekau, who insisted that he was in good health.  He had also referred to attacks which had occurred in early August.  The military statement released on Monday however has specified that the video was a fake.  So far there have been no independent confirmations pertaining to this video.

Washington’s response to these latest claims have come with the US State Department stating that it had seen the reports pertaining to Shekau and that it was currently “working to ascertain the facts,” nothing that he had already been falsely reported dead in 2009.  US State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf added that “he is the most visible leader of Boko Haram, and if his death turns out to be true, the loss of such a central and well-known figure would set back Boko Haram’s operations and remove a key voice from its efforts to mobilize violent extremists in Nigeria and around the world.”

Shekau has been considered the leader of Boko Haram ever since the terrorist group’s founder Muhammad Yusuf, died in 2009 while in police custody.  Since taking over, the terrorist group’s insurgency has seen a violent turn, with thousands being killed in attacks that have been carried out on school children, teachers the UN, the police, north-eastern traditional leaders, journalists, mobile phone towers and ordinary Nigerians going about their lives.  In March of this year, the United States placed a US $7 million (5.3 million euro) bounty on his head.  If these most recent claims of Abubakar Shekau’s death are confirmed, his passing will likely represent a significant moment in the future of the terrorist group, however it is unlikely that Boko Haram will end its violence in the northern regions of the Nigeria.  Instead, this may fuel further retaliatory attacks that will likely target political and security officials along with military bases.  Furthermore, the group has a number of factions, such as al-Qaeda-linked Ansaru, which has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping and killing of a number of Westerners.  Such factions are believed to operate independently and any confirmations of Shekau’s death will likely result in retaliatory kidnappings and attacks that will be linked to his death.

Korean Peninsula Calm as War Games Begin

Annual joint military exercises between the American and South Korean (Republic of Korea, or ROK) armed forces began yesterday, the 19^th of August, in an atmosphere of surprising calm on the Korean peninsula. These war games have often seen strident criticism from the ROK’s secretive neighbour North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK) in the past. Particularly given the drastic escalation of tensions that occurred earlier this year, the relative inexperience of the DPRK’s new leader Kim Jong-Un, and the unpredictable nature of the DPRK itself, the exercises had been seen as a potential flashpoint. While some North Korean rhetoric condemning the exercises has emerged in the past hour, it is noticeably milder than usual and seemingly indicates the DPRK’s current preference for a resumption of diplomatic talks.

The exercises, named Ulchi Freedom Guardian, involve 30’000 American and 50’000 South Korean troops. These computer simulated war games will continue until the 30^th of August, according to the ROK’s defence ministry and the US military command in Seoul. These annual exercises are of a primarily defensive nature according to Kim Min-seok, a spokesman for ROK defence ministry “Ulchi Freedom Guardian…is a joint exercise by South Korea and the United States to prepare for possible provocation from North Korea. The Korean peninsula is under constant threat from the North and the joint exercise is indispensable to maintaining stability” while ROK president Park Guen-hye cited the drills as vital for South Korea’s “readiness posture”.

In previous years, North Korea has acted extremely aggressively to these exercises, denouncing them in media statements and suggesting they are preparation for an invasion. During the extreme escalation of tensions on the peninsula in spring, Pyongyang threatened retaliation with nuclear weapons if US-South Korean war games went ahead. In the build-up to these well publicised exercises however, the atmosphere remained calm. This morning, the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea belatedly released a statement via state media condemning the drills as a “provocation” and threated South Korea with unspecified consequences.

However, this rhetoric is extremely mild by North Korean standards, particularly in light of Pyongyang’s behaviour earlier this year. During that period, in response to increased UN sanctions in light of its nuclear weapons program, the DPRK severed communication links with the south, made almost daily threats of nuclear annihilation, and moved military hardware such as missiles towards the coastal regions, placing nations throughout East Asia on alert.

Since then however, tensions have begun to calm, with the resumption of talks between the two Koreas beginning. The countries are working towards reopening the joint Kaesong industrial park, which has North Korean workers and South Korean managers. The park is seen as an important barometer of relations between the countries, and was closed earlier this year. A possible re-opening would be a notable conciliatory gesture from the North, though one not without self-interest, as the park provides a much needed source of hard currency for the impoverished DPRK.  Pyongyang also agreed on Sunday to talks about reuniting families separated by the end of the Korean War in 1953, another measure that was seen as a key inter-Korea cooperation project. Lastly, the DPRK is also angling for a resumption of South Korean tourist tours of Diamond Mountain, suspended since the shooting of a South Korean woman by a North Korean soldier in 2008 and also a much needed source of foreign currency for the DPRK.

As such, it currently appears that the North has chosen to take a calm approach to the current exercises in order to facilitate much needed diplomatic gains. This is a common practice in DPRK foreign policy – a rapid escalation of tensions featuring apocalyptic threats is followed by equally sudden de-escalation, with the promise of talks on diplomatic issues used as leverage to extract developmental aid and other concessions. The DPRK’s mild behaviour and current easing of tensions is likely a manifestation of this trend.