MS Risk Blog

Update on the Suez Canal

Posted on in Egypt title_rule

Following the failed attack on the Panama-flagged shipping vessel COSCO ASIA in the Suez Canal, Egyptian authorities have bolstered security along the waterway.

Suez Canal Authority Chairman Mohab Mamish said in a statement that the military dealt “decisively” with the 31 August attempt, but gave no further details. It is known that three gunmen were arrested for opening fire on the ship, and investigations are ongoing. Sources within the Suez Canal Authority indicated that a rocket-propelled grenade had been used in the attempt; there was no damage to the ship or its cargo. It is believed that the attack was most likely conducted by foreigners, or Egyptians working with foreigners, from bases in the North Sinai.

Egyptian authorities, meanwhile, have elevated security along the Canal Zone. Commander of the Third Field Army has announced that the waterway and the ships transiting the canal are completely secure.  While Egypt is under national curfew until 31 August, authorities stress that traffic through the Suez Canal remains unaffected. The Canal Zone is secured by the military, including land, sea and air patrols.

The Egyptian military and interim government are determined to keep traffic in the Suez flowing normally. Authorities have highlighted high-risk areas of threat to the canal and its land-based facilities, and are increasing security. But it is likely that such an incident could happen again. While there is intense security along the canal zone, residential areas could become trading areas for light weapons, free from the scrutiny of authorities.

Ships transiting the region are advised to pay attention to updates and recommendations from local authorities, and maintain a constant security watch.

The Joint War Committee, which is comprised of representatives from the Lloyd’s and IUA company markets, are reviewing the situation to identify whether this attack is indicative of a trend, and whether it was carried out by individuals rather than a group. They have not placed Egypt or the Suez Canal on their list of high-risk areas.

Traffic is currently uninterrupted in the Canal.

West Africa Piracy Report (August 19 – September 1, 2013)

Posted on in Africa, Piracy title_rule

AT SEA

Hijacks

  • None reported during this time period.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

  • 27 August 2013 – Pirates in two boats approached a Cameroon-flagged passenger Ro-Ro, the Brenda Corlett, at 0830 LT near Parrot Island, Calabar, Nigeria.  A Nigerian Navy gunboat was escorting the vessel following a tip off from local fishermen that pirate boats were in the vicinity.  The Nigerian Navy’s gunboat gave chase, resulting in one boat escaping into the nearby creeks, however the other boat was stalled.  On approaching the boat, seven pirates fired their AK-47’s at the gunboat, resulting in an exchange of gunfire with four pirates reportedly killed.  One of the pirates was detained.
  • 13 June 2013 (Late Report) – While underway, two speed boats with fourteen pirates on board armed with pistols and AK-47 rifles attacked a tug a t 0315 LT, approximately 30 nautical miles south of Kwa Ibo, Nigeria.  Eight pirates boarded the tug, captured four crew members, stole their personal belongings and took them ashore.  On 21 June 2013, the four kidnapped crew members were safely released.  It is believed that a ransom payment was made for their safe release.  

Weather Analysis

Gulf of Guinea – Southerly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.  Extended Forecast – Southwest winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

 Synoptic Discussion – The Gulf of Guinea is under the influence of high and low pressure systems, bringing strong southerly winds and moisture into the area.  Expect mostly cloudy conditions with rain showers and possible thunderstorms.

Piracy News

  • 28 August 2013 – On Wednesday, the European Union announced that it was preparing to increase security efforts in the Gulf of Guinea as the West African maritime region has developed into the new global piracy hotspot.  Speaking at a maritime security conference in Nigeria’s economic capital, German Rear Admiral Jurgen Ehle, who heads an EU military working group for West Africa, indicated that the new measures, which will likely be announced in October, will not include sending warships to the region, a move that helped reduce pirate attacks in the East African region.  Instead, the EU’s efforts will focus on helping to improve coordination between regional navies, training and other measures, rather than deploying forces.  In essence, “the main part of the strategy…is less to send ships,” specifying that the focus will be on “military advice” and civilian programmes to curb poverty, which if fueling much of the unrest.  Over the past year, the number of attacks in the Gulf of Guinea have dramatically risen and have overtaken the number of attacks off the coast of Somalia, which has seen a sharp decline that has been attributed to international navies patrolling the waters coupled with greater vigilance by vessels transiting the region, in which many now have armed security teams on board.  In 2010, the Gulf of Guinea saw 39 attacks, the numbers however have increased over the past two years, with 53 attacks occurring in 2011 and 63 in 2012.  Many of the attacks that have occurred in the area have seen tankers hijacked with the aim of stealing fuel cargo for sale on the black market.  Other instances have occurred of Nigeria’s oil-producing southern coast, where industry vessels have been raided, sometimes with expatriate workers kidnapped for ransom.
  • Meanwhile Nigeria’s Navy has killed six pirates and injured one other in the latest attack to stop the outlaws from expanding their territory in the Gulf of Guinea.  According to Delta state navy spokesman Lt. Delightsome Yohana, the pirates engaged the navy in a gun battle off the coast of Calabar in Nigerian and Cameroonian waters late on Sunday.  Nigeria’s navy fired back, killing the six pirates while the other attacker is in custody.  The operation is the latest in a string of victories for the Nigerian navy that has amped up its presence offshore and bolstered it with support from its air forces.  According to Yohana, in the last two weeks, the navy has killed eighteen pirates and arrested another five.
  • 19 August 2013 – On Monday, the Nigerian Navy confirmed that its soldiers killed twelve pirates in a gun battle as they attempted to flee from a fuel tanker that they hijacked off the coast of the Gulf of Guinea last week.  According to Navy Flag Officer Rear Admiral Sidi-Ali Hassan, pirates hijacked the St. Kitts and Nevis-flagged MT Notre on August 15, but an emergency signal was sent to then navy, which resulted in several gunships being deployed in order to recover the vessel.  The navy’s gunships caught up with the vessel and forced it into Nigerian waters but while negotiating the vessel’s release, the pirates attempted to escape on a speed boat.  Although the navy boats pursued the pirates, they were fired upon.  Sidi-Ali Hussan has indicated that “the gun battle last about 30 minutes after which they were overpowered.  On taking over the speed boat, four of the militants were alive and unhurt while the rest of the pirates were killed in the crossfire.”  The crew of the MT Notre, which was carrying 17,000 metric tonnes of gasoline at the time of the hijacking, were all rescued unharmed.

 

Suez-Sinai Update

Posted on in Egypt title_rule

Mohab Mamish, Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, says that the Egyptian military foiled an attack on a container ship on Saturday. The attack, conducted by “terrorist elements” was intended to disrupt shipping in the Suez Canal. Reports indicate that the attempt was “completely unsuccessful” and the vessel was undamaged. The report did not indicate how the ship was targeted.

Unconfirmed reports indicate that two explosions occurred at 12:30 GMT as the Panama-flagged vessel, Cosco Asia, traversed the canal. Egyptian authorities have enacted extra security measures to secure the waterway, and have dealt “firmly” with the attempt. There was minimal interruption to shipping activity.

It is possible that the attack was linked to the increased arrests of Muslim Brotherhood (MB) leaders and members following the removal of President Mohamed Morsi. Attacks in the Sinai have become a near daily occurrence since the removal of the MB backed leader. It is known that factions of al-Qaeda have taken residence in the North Sinai region. A week earlier, 25 off-duty, unarmed policemen were killed by suspected al-Qaeda militants; one of the worst militant strikes since the removal of former president Hosni Mubarak in 2011.  The Egyptian government says they are conducting arrests of MB supporters in the fight against terrorism.

On Saturday, a top militant leader, Adel Mohammed (aka Adel Habara) was arrested in the Sinai Peninsula. Habara was tried in absentia and sentenced to death last year for the murder of soldiers in Nile Valley Egypt. The arrest of Habara could undermine militant activity in the area.

Earlier on Saturday, an Arabic recording was released by Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, spokesman for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). The recording stated, “There is nothing more right in God’s religion (Islam) than those who speak of the infidelity, reneging on Islam and abandonment of religion, and call for the necessity to fight these armies, foremost of which is the Egyptian army.” Al-Adnani also accused the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist al-Nour party of being co-opted to conduct the “futile secular approach to power through elections and democracy.”

There are currently no reported delays in the Suez Canal.

UK Votes No; US and France Still Pushing For Military Campaign Against Assad’s Regime

Posted on in Uncategorized title_rule

In a stunning defeat for British Prime Minister David Cameron, British lawmakers voted late on Thursday against military action in Syria.  Despite the surprise vote outcome, US President Barack Obama and French President Francois Holland announced that the UK vote did not change their resolve for firm action against the Syrian Government, which has been accused of using chemical weapons on its own people.  Despite reports earlier in the week suggesting that a Western strike on Syria was imminent, questions have been raised about the quality of the intelligence linking Assad to the attack.

Despite Britain’s Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) releasing evidence on Thursday stating that chemical weapons had undoubtedly been used on August 21, adding that it was “highly likely” that the Syrian government was responsible for the attack, late Thursday night the UK government was defeated in its bid for a “strong humanitarian response” to the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime.  The UK government was defeated by just thirteen votes in a 285-272 result in the House of Commons.  Minutes laters, Prime Minister Cameron told lawmakers that “it is clear to me that the British parliament, reflecting the views of the British people, does not want to see British military action…I get that, and the government will act accordingly.”  Shortly after the surprise result, British Defence Secretary Phillip Hammond confirmed that Britain would not be involved in any military action, further noting that he expected “that the US and other countries will continue to look at responses to the chemical attack.”

According to reports, seven hours of debates in the House of Commons had revealed deep divisions on whether military strikes against Assad’s regime would deter the further use of chemical weapons or simply worsen the conflict.  Sources also indicate that the specter of the Iraq war also came up a number of times during the debate.  Although the Prime Minister had made the case for targeted strikes, insisting that Britain could not stand idle in the face of “one of the most abhorrent uses of chemical weapons in a century,” he was faced with strong resistance from the opposition Labour party and by many within his own Conservative party, who expressed fear that Britain was rushing to war without conclusive evidence that Assad had gassed his own people.  Russia, which has close ties with the Assad government, has welcomed the UK’s decision to reject a military strike.

US and France May Act Together

Cameron’s defeat significantly raises the possibility that the United States may act alone against the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which it states is responsible for horrific gas attacks that are believed to have killed at least 355 people in the Ghoua area, which is located on the outskirts of the capital of Damascus.  However even before the surprise British vote, the White House had already signaled that it was ready to act regardless of UN or allied support.

In response to yesterday’s UK vote, US National Security Council spokeswoman, Caitlin Hayden stated that “we have seen the result of the Parliament vote in the UK tonight,” adding that “as we’ve said, President Obama’s decision-making will be guided by what is in the best interests of the United States…he believes that there are core interests at stake for the United States and that countries who violate international norms regarding chemical weapons need to be held accountable.”  The White House did indicate however that despite the UK vote, officials in the US would “continue to consult” with the UK over Syria, describing London as “one of our closest allies and friends.”

While no further comments in regards to a decision on military action against Syria were made by the Obama administration, a defense official confirmed on Thursday that the United States Navy had deployed a fifth destroyer to the eastern Mediterranean.  According to the official, the USS Stout, a guided missile destroyer, is “in the Mediterranean, heading and moving east” to relieve the Mahan.  Although he did specify that both ships may remain in the region for the time being, he did not indicate how long the Mahan would stay in the area before returning to its home port of Norfolk, Virginia, which it left in December 2012.   The other destroyers in the region, which include the Ramage, the Barry and the Gravely, are currently criss-crossing the region and may launch their Tomahawk missiles towards Syria if directed so by the US President.  Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is currently on a week-long trip to Southeast Asia, has stated that US forces are in place and “ready to go” if Obama hives the order, however he stipulated that no such decision has yet been made.

Meanwhile on Friday, French President Francois Hollande announced that a military strike on Syria could come by Wednesday, and that Britain’s surprise rejection of armed intervention would not affect his government’s stand on the issue.  In an interview to Le Monde daily on Friday, Hollalde stated that “France wants firm and proportionate action against the Damascus regime.”  The French Parliament is due to meet on Wednesday for an emergency Syria session.  The President’s remarks signal that his government may seek military action alongside the US.

Bashar al-Assad Responds

With Western states and the United Nations debating possible military action against Syria, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad announced on Thursday that his country will defend itself against what he called Western “aggression.”  According to Syria’s Sana news agency, Assad told a group of Yemeni MP’s that his country would defend itself against any aggression, noting that “Syria, with its steadfast people and brave army, will continue eliminating terrorists, which are utilized by Israel and Western countries to serve their interests in fragmenting the region.”

Meanwhile the situation in Damascus remains tense.  Reports have indicated that senior military commanders are reportedly staying away from buildings thought likely to be targeted if a Western intervention is launched.  Furthermore, many of Damascus’ residents have begun to flee the city in fear of an impending attack.  Although witnesses have reported long lines of cars loaded with suitcases that have been waiting at the main Masnaa border that crosses into Lebanon, Syria’s state television is portraying citizens as going about their normal lives, seemingly unperturbed by the prospect of military strikes.  More than 100,000 people are estimated to have died since the conflict erupted in March 2011, which has also produced at least 1.7 million refugees.

UN at a Deadlock

The United Nations continued to be deadlocked in regards to the case in Syria, with diplomats indicating that the views of the five permanent members remain “far apart.”  On Thursday, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council held new talks on the Syria chemical weapons crisis, however no apparent progress on UN action was achieved.  According to officials, the 45-minute meeting is the second to occur since Britain proposed a draft Security Council Resolution that would allow “all necessary measures” to protect Syrian civilians.  After concluding the meeting, none of the envoys from Britain, China, France, Russia or the US made any comments as they left.  However diplomats have noted that there had been “no meeting of minds,” during the session as Russia and China are on one side while the US, UK and France remain on the other.

Meanwhile UN Inspectors headed out on Friday for their last day of investigations.  Security officials have indicated that they were going to a military hospital in an eastern district of the Syrian capital.  Samples taken during their site visits will be tested in various European laboratories in order to examine whether an attack took place and what form it took, however the inspectors‘ mandate does not involve apportioning blame for the attacks.  Preliminary findings are expected to be delivered to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon over the weekend.

Shadow of Iraq

With the US mounting its power in the region, a number of critics have sparked a debate about whether or not the conflict in Syria could turn into another Iraq if a decision to launch military action is agreed upon.

As the US and France now look to find a diplomatic consensus on the issue without the UK, a number of critics have identified elements that echo those that occurred in the run-up to the 2003 war in Iraq.  With a number of components being present in both cases, specifically the work of weapons inspectors; the intelligence gathered to make the case; and denials from the regime at the centre of the issue; Iraq is very much on the minds of those international officials who have expressed level-headed caution over Syria.

With UN inspectors still in Syria conducting an investigation, Britain’s case for military intervention in Syria is based on a “limited but growing body of intelligence,” which suggests that it is “highly likely” that the Syrian regime was responsible for last week’s devastating chemical weapons attack.  An intelligence dossier that was released by the Prime Minister, which was used by Cameron to form the basis for the case to attack Syria, depicts the JIC indicating that the chemical attack was “probably” delegated by Assad to one of his commanders, however the JIC was unable to establish the motive behind last week’s attack.  In a letter written by JIC chairman Jon Day to the Prime Minister, the chairman concluded that there are “no plausible alternative scenarios” other than the attack being an attack of the Syrian regime.  The two-page letter was accompanied by a short summary of the intelligence case, which runs to just 313 words.  The summary is also dated as the “JIC’s assessment of August 27 on reported chemical weapons use in Damascus,” however it is not known why later intelligence, if it exists, was not included in the document.

With the JIC’s findings being debated in yesterday’s House of Commons’ session, remarks made by David Davis, a former shadow home secretary, depict that British MP’s are hesitant to base their decision for military action in Syria solely on the intelligence that is available.  During yesterday’s debates, Davis stated that “we must consider, being where we’ve been before in this House, that our intelligence as it stands might be wrong because it was before and we have got to be very, very hard in testing it.”  Echoing the weeks of debates in the lead up to the 2003 war in Iraq, it is clear the officials in the UK and elsewhere are willing to wait for more intelligence and the UN inspectors findings before making any other decisions.

Meanwhile officials in the US have also admitted that they have “no smoking gun” proving that President Assad personally ordered his forces to use chemical weapons.  While US intelligence sources indicated yesterday that its agencies had intercepted communications discussing the chemical attack between officials in Syria’s central command and in the field, it is understood that these remarks do not clearly implicate Assad or his entourage in ordering the use of chemicals.

MENA Update

Posted on in Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen title_rule

Arab League

Arab League to Pass Resolution on Syrian Chemical Weapons

Arab League ministers will meet in Cairo next week (September 2-3), and are expected to pass a resolution which blames Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for the wide-scale chemical weapons attack near Damascus last week. A representative of the League said, “The Arab foreign ministers will affirm the full responsibility of the Syrian regime for the chemical weapons’ attack that took place in Eastern Ghouta.” The representative also indicated that the League will ask for those responsible for the attack to be taken to the International Criminal Court. The Arab League is expected to call for the UN to adopt tougher sanctions on Syria, and to urge Russia and China not to block resolutions which propose action against Assad.

Permanent representatives within the Arab League have already placed responsibility for the attack on the Assad regime. The announcements provided regional political cover in the event of a U.S.-led military strike on Syria.

Supporters of the resolution are expected to include Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which both back anti-Assad rebels in Syria’s civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, and Algeria are likely to oppose or abstain from any vote which condemns Syria. Syria has been suspended from the Arab League since November 2011.

Algeria

Three Algerian troops killed in bombing

Three members of the Algerian army were killed and four injured following a bomb explosion in the Beni Milleuk Mountains in Tipaza Province. This marks the second attack in six weeks; in mid-July, four soldiers were killed after two bombs detonated in western Tipaza.

The Algerian military has been searching the region connecting Ain Defla and Tipaza provinces after receiving reports of terrorist activities in the area. Sources indicated that a terrorist group had planted a mine on a road that the army vehicles were using.

Egypt: National

Egyptian Authorities Detain Families of Muslim Brotherhood Leaders

Within 24 hours, Egyptian authorities detained over 60 people who were associated with the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), including relatives of the group’s leaders. Police have arrested the son of MB deputy Khairat el-Shater. The elder el-Shater was arrested on charges related to the killings of protesters outside the group’s headquarters in June. According to officials, el-Shater’s son, Saad, was reportedly arrested for threatening to release documents allegedly showing ties between his father and U.S. President Barack Obama. In addition, the brother-in-law of fugitive Brotherhood figurehead Mohammed el-Beltagy also was arrested. He was charged with violent protests aimed at toppling the interim government.

The crackdown on the Brotherhood intensified following the clearing of pro-Morsi protesters at Raba’a mosque in Cairo. In the ensuing unrest, over 1,000 people, including more than 100 officers were killed within a few days. As protesters turned violent, they were in turn met by neighbourhood watch groups. Authorities and local media have called the actions of the Brotherhood and their supporters “acts of terrorism.” Many among the arrested have been charged with inciting violence. While many of the MBs senior and mid-level leaders have been arrested, still others remain in hiding while encouraging protestors to ignore the protests and continue to rally against the removal of former president Morsi.

Many Egyptians suspect that the Muslim Brotherhood and its political allies could be barred from politics, forced underground once again as under the Mubarak regime. However, Interim Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi has said dissolving the group is not a solution, and urged against making dramatic decisions during turbulent times. Beblawi instead opts to monitor political parties rather than forcing them to operate covertly.

Meanwhile, interim president Adly Mansour issued a decree changing the nation’s military oath, removing a line that makes soldiers pledge allegiance to the presidency. Soldiers are now only required to pledge loyalty to their leadership and the country.

The security clampdown appears to have weakened the Brotherhood-led protests, which have been much smaller across the country this past week. There are planned protests Friday and calls for civil disobedience.

Iraq

Coordinated bombings kill 65

 A wave of bombings in the predominantly Shiite Muslim areas in and around Baghdad has killed at least 65 people and wounded many more. The blasts came in quick succession and targeted residents who were out shopping or on their way to work.

Unknown attackers deployed explosives-laden cars, suicide bombers and other bombs. They assailants struck parking lots, outdoor markets, and restaurants. In Kazimiyah, two bombs detonated in a parking lot, followed by a suicide car bomber who struck onlookers who had gathered at the scene. Ten people were killed and 27 wounded in that attack.

Car bombs went off in outdoor markets across the region. In Sadr City a car bomb was detonated, killing 5 and wounding 20. In Shula, a car bomb killed three and wounded nine; in Jisr Diyala a bomb killed eight and wounded 22; and one in New Baghdad area, killing three and wounding 12. Blasts in Bayaa, Jamila, Hurriyah and Saydiyah, resulted in 12 deaths. In Mahmoudiyah a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a restaurant, killing four and wounding 13. Finally, in Madain, a roadside bomb struck a passing military patrol, killing four soldiers and wounding six others.

In addition, seven Shiite family members killed when gunmen raided their home and shot them as they slept. Three children, ages eight to twelve, were killed along with their parents and two uncles in that attack.

It is suspected that the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda is responsible. Over 500 people have been killed in Iraq since the beginning of August.

Libya

Gadhafi Son and Chief Spy Charged

Moammar Gadhafi’s, son Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, and former Gadhafi-regime Intelligence Chief Abdullah al-Senoussi have been charged with murder in relation to the country’s 2011 civil war. The trial will start on September 19 and will also include 28 former regime members who will face charges ranging from murder, forming armed groups in violation of the law, inciting rape and kidnappings.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) charged Seif al-Islam Gadhafi with murder and persecution of civilians. If convicted in that court, Seif al-Islam could face life imprisonment. This summer, ICC judges had ruled that Libya cannot give Seif al-Islam a fair trial. However he remains held in captivity by a militia group that has refused to turn him over to the Hague. Seif al-Islam was as he attempted to flee to Niger.

In Libya, he will be tried on charges of harming state security, attempting to escape prison and insulting Libya’s new flag. Seif al-Islam wants to be tried for alleged war crimes in the Netherlands, as the ICC does not issue a death sentence. He claims that a Libyan trial would be tantamount to murder. The remaining Gadhafi family, including his mother, sister, two brothers and others, were granted asylum in Oman in 2012.

Syria

AQ Offshoot Threatens Revenge Over Chemical Weapons Attack

An al-Qaeda affiliate, The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), has announced plans to coordinate with other Syrian rebel groups to take revenge for the chemical weapons attack last week outside of Damascus.

The ISIL released a statement on Twitter that was signed by seven other militant groups. The signatories all have operations in Eastern Ghouta, where the attacks occurred. The statement indicates that the organizations have agreed to conduct joint operations after a meeting called for by the ISIL “for all the jihadi factions in Eastern Ghouta.”

The operation, dubbed “Volcano of Revenge,” will target “the main joints of the regime in imprisoned Damascus, including security branches, support and supply points, training centres, and infrastructure.”

The groups that signed the statement include:

  • Ahrar al Sham Islamic Movement (Independent group)
  • Ahrar Dimashq Battalion, or Muhajireen Army (AQ linked)
  • Abu Dhar al Ghafari Brigade, (ISIL unit)
  • Al Habib Al Mustafa Brigades (FSA unit)
  • Al Furqan Brigade (FSA unit)
  • Umm al Qura Battalion (presumed independent)
  • Deraa al-‘Asima Brigade (Lebanon Capital Shield Brigade)

The statement was released as US officials deliberate plans to conduct strikes against the Syrian government, ironically putting them on the same side as the ISIL.

Yemen

Yemen police foil potential terrorist attack

Police in Yemen have stopped an attempt to smuggle explosive materials through Sana’a airport, confiscating a package of explosives disguised as juice and soft drink. More details on the date of confiscation or the sender’s identity were not available.

Khalid Al Shaif, deputy director of the airport, has told reporters that airport police have previously aborted many bids to smuggle weapons, chemicals, and explosive materials, using tactics which include honey bottles or dismantling weapons and wrapping them with tin.