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IS Leader on the Run

Officials and experts are reporting that the leader of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is on the brink of losing the two main centres of his ‘caliphate,’ adding that while he is on the run, it may take years to capture or kill him.

IS fighters are close to defeat in the twin capitals of the group’s territory – Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria, with officials stating that Baghdadi is steering clear of both and is likely hiding in thousands of square miles of desert between the two capitals. In Iraq, the country’s forces have retaken much of Mosul, the northern Iraqi city, which the terror group seized in June 2014 and from which Baghdadi declared himself shortly afterwards “caliph,” or leader of all Muslims. Meanwhile Raqqa, his capital in Syria, is nearly surrounded by a coalition of Syrian Kurdish and Arab groups. The last public footage released of Baghdad shows him dressed in black clerical robes declaring his caliphate from the pulpit of Mosul’s medieval Grand al-Nuri mosque back in 2014.

According to Lahur Talabny, the head of counter-terrorism at the Kurdistan Regional Government, “in the end, he will either be killed or captured, he will not be able to remain under ground forever,” noting however that “…this is a few years away.” Hisham al-Hashimi, who advises Middle Eastern governments on IS affairs, has disclosed that one of Baghdadi’s main concerns will be to ensure that those around him do not betray him for the US $25 million reward that has been offered by the United States to bring him “to justice.” Hashimi further states that “with no land to rule openly, he can no longer claim the title caliph,” adding “he is a man on the run and the number of his supporters is shrinking as they lose territory.”

Who is Baghdadi?

Baghdadi, born Ibrahim al-Samarrai, is a 46-year-old Iraqi who broke away from al-Qaeda in 2013, just two years after the capture and killing of the group’s leader Osama bin Laden. Baghdadi grew up in a religious family. He studied Islamic Theology in Baghdad and joined the Salaafi jihadist insurgency in 2003 – the year of the US-led invasion in Iraq. He was caught by the Americans who released him about a year later after considering him to be a civilian rather than a military target. Hashimi has disclosed that Baghdadi is shy, adding that recently he has stuck to the sparsely populated Iraq-Syria border area, where drones and strangers are more easier to spot.

The United States Department of State’s Counter-Terrorism Rewards Programme had placed the same US $25 million bounty on Bin Laden and Iraqi former president Saddam Hussein. The rewards are still available for Bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri. While neither Saddam nor Bin Laden were voluntarily betrayed, the bounties did complicate their movements and communications. According to Fadhel Abu Ragheef, a Baghdad-based expert on extremist groups,” the reward creates worry and tension, it restricts his movements and limit the number of his guards,’ adding “he doesn’t stay more than 72 hours in any one place.” Luhur Talabany further notes that Baghdadi “has become nervous and very careful in his movements,” adding that “his circle of trust has become even smaller.” His last recorded speech was issued in early November 2016, two weeks after the start of the Mosul battle. During that speech, he urged his followers to fight the “unbelievers” and “make their blood flow as rivers.” US and Iraqi officials currently believe that Baghdadi has left operational commanders behind, with diehard followers to fight the battles in Mosul and Raqqa as he now focuses on his own survival. His current whereabouts however have been impossible to confirm. The last official report regarding his whereabouts was from the Iraqi military on 13 February 2017. The report disclosed that Iraqi F-16s carried out a strike on a house where he was thought to be meeting other commanders. The house is located in western Iraq, near the border with Syria.

Baghdadi does not use phones and has a handful number of approved couriers in order to communicate with his two main aides – Iyad al-Obiadi, his defense minister, and Ayad al-Jumaili, who is in charge of security. On 1 April, Iraq state TV reported that Jumaili had been killed, however there has been no confirmation of this report. Hashimi notes that Baghdadi moves in ordinary cars, or the kind of pick-up trucks used by farmers between hideouts that are located on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border, adding that he has just a driver and two bodyguards with him during the move. This region is well known to his fighters as the hotbed of the Sunni insurgency against US forces that invaded Iraq and later the Shi’ite-led governments that took over the country.

While it may take years to capture or kill Baghdadi, it is evident that he has had an influence in the region, and his legacy and that of IS is likely to ensure unless radical extremism as a whole is tackled.

Terrorist Attack in Mali – Security Advisory (18 June 2017)

A terror attack is currently underway at a luxury resort frequented by tourists near Bamako, Mali. Casualities and hostages have been reported. Security forces have indicated that operations against an unknown number of gunmen at Le Campement, which is located outside the capital Bamako, are ongoing. Le Campement Kangaba is currently blocked off. The EU Training Mission in Mali has described the attackers as “suspected jihadists,” adding that they are assisting the local forces. The resort is located in Dougourakoko, on the outskirts of the city, where the Radisson Blu hotel was the target of a previous terror atta ck in November 2015.

The rural resort is popular with Western tourists, expats and locals. It offers luxury accommodation, a spa and three swimming pools, as well as running excursions and sports for guests.

Anyone currently in Bamako is advised to avoid the area due to the ongoing security threat. MS Risk advises that you seek the advice of local authorities. Major hotels in the area are likely to be under a lockdown, and you should adhere to the advice of hotel staff and security. Anyone in the capital city is advised to remain alert as further incidents in other areas frequented by foreigners may be targeted. Please be advised that a curfew and possible restrictions on bridge crossings and and routes in and around Bamako. Expect heavy security forces presence. While no intelligence is known to exist to indicate secondary attacks, it would be prudent to evaluate the local security situation and disposition of resources across the region. MS Risk is currently monitoring the situation and will release further alerts as more information becomes available.

How Climate Change Fuels Terrorism

The Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Change has warned that the impact of global warming will push immense refugee movements and that climate change, alone poses as the greatest security threat of the 21^st century. The United Nations (UN), The European Union (EU), the G7 and an increasing number of states have also identified climate change as a threat to global and national security. Studies have shown that the impacts of climate change tend to create conditions in which violent non-state actors including terrorists and insurgents thrive. While it has not been established yet if climate change can be directly attributed to the cause of terrorism, it has certainly been seen as a threat multiplier. Climate change blends with other existing threats in a region and largely increases the likelihood of violent conflicts.

The effects of climate change contribute to conflicts over natural resources and security of livelihood. Terrorists, therefore, can multiply and easily operate in regions already fragile from impacts of climate change, particularly, if the state has little or no authority in those areas. The deteriorating conditions that further question the state’s legitimacy in affected regions open up opportunities for a terrorist group to act as a state by providing basic services to people. By doing so, the terrorist group gains legitimacy and secures trust and support from the local population, thus strengthening foothold in the areas.

Climate change increasingly constrains the ability of states to render services and maintain stability. Extreme effects of climate change can significantly strain the relationship between governments and populations. Even a government’s slow and poor response to managing natural disasters and recovery from effects of climate change can weaken people’s trust on the state. This makes the population more vulnerable to seek alternative support from non-state actors that may employ violence to execute their agendas against the state. Also, in contemporary politics, there is a notion to perceive terrorists in the context of war on terrorism, thus dismissing or undermining what conditions are essentially facilitating proliferation of these formidable enemies.

The conditions of the region around Lake Chad effectively portray how climate change fuels terrorism. Prolonged drought in the region has significantly shrunk Lake Chad, which happens to be the main source of livelihood for millions of dwellers in the area. The scarcity of resources and security of livelihood as a result of shrinkage have exacerbated frictions between pastoralists, famers and fishermen. The drought pushing poverty even further has given a fertile ground for the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram (BH) to thrive and challenge the state authorities in the region. The desperate need for survival in the face of extreme poverty, already made worse by the impacts of climate change in the Lake Chad region has subjected young population vulnerable to recruitment by BH and illicit employments linked to armed conflict, human trafficking and also massive cross border displacements.

Lake Chad has consistently been the main source of irrigation and freshwater for livestock. The lake has also been a source of livelihoods for about 30 million people settled along its shores. With the increasing population, the demand for water has gone up. However, over the past 50 years, ineffective conservation of water and effects of climate change with rising temperature and inconsistent rainfall have shrunk the lake’s surface by 90 percent. According to United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), about 50 percent of the shrinkage is caused by climate change.

As a result of decreasing water level, natural resources in the Chad basin have also reduced, which means, less availability of fresh water, decreased fish stocks, loss of vegetation and depleted grazing lands. All these effects together with an increasing population have, therefore, compromised food security. These impacts have also changed settlements along the lake’s wetlands, which serve farmers as fallback areas for crop cultivation in times of drought. As the wetlands degrade, the local populations migrate in search of new fertile soils and better fishing grounds, thus moving closer to the shore lines for cultivation. Simultaneously, pastoralists also migrate to the shores in search of grazing grounds and water. Consequently, the strain on remaining resources and rivalry between various groups of settlers often leads to violent conflicts. In Niger, an increasing conflict between migrant fishermen and local law enforcers has been seen since the 1980s. In Nigeria, recurring clashes between nomadic herders and famers over land around Lake Chad have resulted in many casualties. Local political authorities have demonstrated little interest in resolving these farmer-herder disputes. Also, as the military and state security forces are seen as very corrupt and unable to curb the outbreak of violence, trust in the government has weakened. Conditions as such, therefore, have helped BH to mobilize support of the local population, commit acts of violence and engage in organized criminal activities.

The prolonged drought in Syria is another example that effectively suggests how climate change fuels terrorism. Syria’s water system has already been vulnerable before the country was hit by drought in 2007. An increasing population and years of ineffective conservation of water have strained the country’s water system. With the drought, excessive use of groundwater and dam projects in Turkey have reduced the availability of fresh water in Syria. In the country’s northeast, nearly 1.3 million people, dependent on agriculture, have experienced crop failure and herders have lost nearly 85 percent of their livestock. These massive losses have triggered a migration of people to the cities, which have already been overcrowded with the influx of about 1.5 million Iraqi refugees. The effects are increasing number of crimes, food price hikes and strained urban infrastructure. Also, the Syrian government has undermined the drought and failed to adopt necessary measures to address the effects of the drought. As a result, protests against the regime begin to spread across the country in Dara’a, Damascus, Hama and Aleppo. The urban populations witnessing the regime’s reluctance to support the displaced rural migrants and address the strain they put on urban infrastructure have joined the protests. The movement has quickly escalated into sectarian conflicts. In the midst of the chaos, Syrian rebel groups and terrorists such as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could easily gain control over unstable territories. The Syrian regime’s failure to provide security and relief to the population affected by drought has provided opportunities for ISIS to set up social services, execute irrigation projects and provide clean water to the people in affected areas. The arrangements have also made it easier for ISIS to recruit from the local population that has felt neglected and abandoned by the state.

The key takeaways, therefore, which, surface from the above as to how climate change fuels terrorism are as follows:

• When natural resources deplete, competing for the same resources can trigger instability in the region and subsequently violent conflicts amongst groups for survival;
• When climate change affects people who depend on natural resources for their livelihood, they become prone to mass migration or illegal sources of income;
• When the government fails to address the effects of extreme weather events and natural disasters, people become vulnerable to alternative incentives from violent non-state actors like terrorist groups;

US Government Contractor Arrested After NSA Leak Report

A United States government contractor has been arrested on suspicion of leaking top-secret information to a news outlet.

According to officials, Reality Leagh Winner, 25, allegedly removed classified material from a federal site in the state of Georgia. The charges were announced shortly after news website The Intercept published a National Security Agency briefing about alleged Russian meddling in last year’s US presidential election. The Trump administration has been seeking to fight leaks to the media.

According to the justice department, Ms Winner was arrested on 3 June. NBC News has reported that Ms Winner is a contractor with Pluribus International Corporation and had been employed at an NSA facility in Georgia since February. According to the network, the accused faces a count of “gathering, transmitting or losing defense information.” Ms Winner, who graduated from basic military training at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio Texas in 2011, was caught after investigators noticed that the leaked document appeared to have been folded or creased. According to an FBI affidavit in support of the arrest warrant, that suggested that it had been “printed and then carried out of a secured space.” The indictment further disclosed that investigators then determined that Ms Winner was one of only six people to have printed the document. Examination of her email on her desk computer further revealed that she had exchanged emails with the news outlet. The affidavit states that when confronted, Ms Winner admitted to printing the report despite not possessing a “need-to-know” about its content and said that she was aware that the information “could be used to the injury of the US and to the advantage of a foreign nation.”

The Intercept’s leaked document alleges that Moscow’s military intelligence services attempted cyber-attacks on at least one US voting software supplier just days before last November’s US Presidential election. It also accuses them of sending spear-phishing emails to more than 100 local election officials, however there is no suggestion in the document that the hackers were successful. The NSA file in question was apparently marked for declassification not before May 2042. American intelligence agencies have accused the Kremlin of trying to interfere in the election in a bid to ensure that Donald Trump beat Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton. Several congressional committees and the FBI are currently investigating the matter. President Trump however has repeatedly dismissed the story as “fake news,” arguing that the real scandal is how the allegations are being leaked to the media.

France’s Le Pen to Abandon “Frexit” and Franc Pitch

Britain’s Telegraph newspaper has quoted France’s National Front (FN) party’s chief economic strategist as stating that FN leader Marine Le Pen will abandon her pitch to leave the European Union (EU) and restore the French franc. This comes after Ms Le Pen disclosed on 19 May that the far-right party would begin debating its trademark anti-euro stance after parliamentary elections in June.

Bernard Monot, the party’s chief economic strategist, told The Telegraph that “there will be no Frexit. We have taken note of what the French people told us.” He was further quoted as stating, “I continue to think that the euro is not technically viable but it makes no sense for us to keep insisting stubbornly. From now on our policy will be to renegotiate the EU treaties to give us more control over our budget and banking regulations.” Rumours emerged shortly after the second round of the presidential election earlier this month that ditching the idea of leaving the EU and abandoning the euro would be necessary for the FN if it wants to win in the next presidential election five years from now.

Leaving the euro and the EU were key pledges of Ms Le Pen’s failed presidential bids in 2012 and this year. Opinion polls have shown that a majority of French voters are in favor of keeping the currency.

President Emmanuel Macron has sought to reinvigorate the Franco-German relationship, which lies at the heart of the EU. During the presidential election campaign, he warned that the euro may not exist in a decade if Paris and Berlin fail to bolster the currency union. Mr Macron beat Ms Le Pen in a 7 May run-off vote, however the long campaign exposed deep divisions over France’s role in Europe, immigration and policies to revive a sluggish economy bedevilled by high unemployment. The latest approval ratings for President Macron stand at 62% approval.