South Sudan Security Update: 19 December 2013

After Sunday’s reported coup attempt, fighting has continued in South Sudan, with the military now reporting that South Sudanese rebels have taken over a key town.  The unrest, which began in the capital Juba, has already killed some 500 people, sparking concerns that the conflict could spread and transform into a civil war.  President Salva Kiir has accused former vice president Riek Machar of plotting a coup, a claim he has denied.

Rebels Take Key Town

On Thursday, South Sudan’s army spokesman, Col. Philip Aguer, confirmed “our soldiers have lost control of Bor to the forces of Riek Machar.”  The previous day, Bor’s mayor, Nicholas Nhial Maja, indicated that violence had spread to his city from Juba, which is located 200 km (125 miles) away.

Overnight, there were reports of gun battles in Bor, as renegade officers fought with troops who are still loyal to the current president.  The army has indicated that Peter Gadet Yak, the commander of Division 8 unit, had rebelled, taking with him an unknown number of soldiers.  It currently remains unclear as to whether troops loyal to Mr. Machar were involved in the fighting.

Bor is the capital of Jonglei state.  Prior to the current violence, Bor has been seen as being one of the most volatile areas in South Sudan.

While the latest violence has been confined to Jonglei, tensions are also high in the states of Unity and Upper Nile.  However in Juba, where the violence initially erupted on Sunday, the situation appears to be calmer, with Col. Aguer reporting that “the streets are busy and shops are open.

Meanwhile, officials at the United Nations have expressed concern about a possible civil war erupting between the country’s two main ethnic groups, the Dinka of current President Kiir and the Nuer, of Mr. Machar.  The UN has called for political dialogue in order to end the crisis, with the Ugandan government indicating that its president has been asked by the UN to mediate between the two sides.  A delegation composed of East African foreign minister is due to fly to Juba in order to try and arrange talks.  The UN peacekeeping mission has indicated that it is sheltering civilians in five state capitals, including Juba, Bor and Bentiu, which is the main town of the oil-producing state of Unity.

Brtiain and the United States have already sent out planes in order to airlift their nations out of the country.

Coup Attempt

On Monday, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir indicated that an attempted coup by soldiers loyal to his former deputy Riek Machar had been put down.

The President further noted that after a night of heavy fighting between soldiers in the presidential guard, the government was now in full control of the capital, Juba.  A night time curfew was put in place and a number of arrests were reportedly made.  Several people were reported injured and hundreds have fled to a US base.

Fighting broke out in the capital city overnight and intensified in the early morning, with reports of continuous gunfire and several explosions being heard.  The city’s airport has been closed and the state TV channel SSTV went off air for several hours.   Shortly after it came back on air, SSTV broadcasted an address by the President, who indicated that the violence “was an attempted coup,” noting that the government was now in full control and that the attackers were being chased down.    The president has blamed soldiers loyal to Riek Machar, who he dismissed as vice-president in July, for starting the fighting in the capital.  Machar was dismissed after mounting public criticism at the government’s failure to deliver better public services in the oil-producing nation.

The fighting erupted when unidentified uniformed personnel opened fire during a meeting of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).  This was followed by an attack on army headquarters near the university, which was carried out “by a group of soldiers allied to the former vice president Dr. Riek Machar and his group.”  During his address, the president stipulated that he “…will not allow or tolerate such incidents once again in our nation.  I strongly condemn these criminal actions in the strongest terms possible.”  He vowed that those responsible would have to stand “before the appropriate law institution.”

On Monday, the president declared a curfew, running from 6PM to 6AM each night.

Overview  of South Sudan

South Sudan’s is the world’s newest nation.  Located in central Africa, and bordered by six countries, South Sudan is rich in oil, however following decades of civil war, it is also one of the least developed regions on earth.

Tensions

In 2011, South Sudan overwhelmingly voted to breakaway from Sudan.  Since then, there have been a number of small-armed rebellions, border clashes and deadly cattle feuds.  However these have all typically occurred in places away from the capital Juba.

The government’s main concern has been to get the oil flowing following disagreements with Sudan.  Production of oil only resumed in April of this year.  In turn, signs of tension within the country’s governing SPLM party became evident in July, when President Salva Kiir, from the majority Dinka group, removed his deputy Riek Machar, who comes from the second largest Nuer group, from power.

Civil War?

Over the past week, the president of the United Nations Security Council, Gerard Araud, who has stated that the violence in South Sudan had the potential to be a “fully-fledged war throughout the country” between the Dinka and Nuer communities.  In turn, up to 20,000 people have already taken refuge in the UN mission in Juba, with some indicating that Nuer residents were being targeted in the fighting.  Furthermore, after decades of conflict, the country is also awash with guns.

Japan adopts new national security strategy amidst tensions in East Asia

Today, the 17^th of December, the Japanese government has released its new national security strategy. It includes commitments to increase military spending and investment in new technologies, largely aimed at countering China’s growing maritime power and the ongoing dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. A more robust military posture is also a cornerstone of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s right wing nationalist politics, something that is destined to prove controversial both within Japan, and also in the wider region, with China and both Koreas certain to react with hostility to any perceived return to ‘Japanese militarism’.

Though co-operation with the United States (which guarantees Japan’s military security) seems likely to remain the primary feature of Japan’s defensive posture for the foreseeable future, moves towards more independence and assertiveness seem also seem likely to increase over coming years. The new national security strategy would help provide for this, with a 5% spending increase allowing for the purchase of more equipment for Japan’s already modern military. This will apparently include new naval destroyers, surveillance drones, fighter aircraft and Osprey tilt rotor aircraft. A new assault force (essentially a marine corps) equipped with amphibious landing craft, will also be created.

Much of this development is in response to the increasingly assertive presence of the Chinese military in the region, particularly in the maritime sphere. As China pursues a blue water navy, it is investing extremely heavily in new warships in order to expand it’s control in East Asian waters. This included, last year, the completion of China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. Though the Liaoning is a refurbished Soviet aircraft carrier and not state of the art, it is allowing the Chinese to develop and train personnel for deployment on their own indigenously built aircraft carriers, which are scheduled to begin entering active service around 2020.

China’s increasingly assertive role has manifested in continuing tensions over a collection of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, controlled by Japan and known as the Senkakus (though called the Diaoyu by China). These islands are a continuing flashpoint between the two nations, both as a source of national pride and also because of the rich natural resources and fishing fields in the area. Recently, China has unilaterally expanded its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) to cover a large swathe of the East China sea, a move that has provoked criticism from Japan, South Korea and the United States. It is worth noting that Japan’s own ADIZ is also of a similar size, and has also been expanded in a similar fashion in the past. Japan is also engaged in a territorial dispute over islands controlled by South Korea, as well as a long running dispute with Russia over the Northern Territories. Japan is also within missile range of North Korea, and feels threatened by its nuclear program and potentially destabilising actions.

Any Japanese re-militarisation would prove an extremely controversial affair. The legacy of the Second World War remains strong in East Asia, with the Chinese and Korean populace hostile to a Japan that they feel often refuses to face up to its wartime behaviour, particularly involving the usage of comfort women (native peoples forced into prostitution for the Japanese armed forces). Prime Minister Abe’s stringent nationalism is particularly marked – he has been ambivalent about admitting the war crimes committed by the Japanese armed forces, has denied the coercive role of the military in procuring comfort women, and has openly questioned whether Japan should be defined an ‘aggressor’ during the war, arguing school books should give a more positive view of Japan’s wartime role and behaviour.

Within Japan, Abe’s right wing nationalism is also controversial. A recent implementation of a hard-line new state secrets law promoted demonstrations in Tokyo, while Abe’s desire to overturn Japan’s pacifist constitution is well known. It would be difficult for Abe to do this currently, as he would require a two thirds majority in both houses of parliament as well as a successful referendum. Many on the Japanese left are apparently concerned that Abe is using the threat of a rising China to ‘re-militarise through the back door’ and to meet his own nationalist aims as opposed to external threats.

Despite frequent sabre rattling between China, both Koreas and Japan over their various disagreements and claims in the region, an imminent deterioration in East Asian stability is still very unlikely. However, the long term strategic issues in the region posed by a rising China, a US suffering from a stretched defence budget and declining influence, a remilitarised and more aggressive Japan and an unpredictable North Korea are extremely serious. Any conflict in the region would also have serious economic consequences world-wide, as China, Japan and South Korea are all major players in the global economy.

CAR Security Update

On Tuesday, officials in France vowed to continue their mission in the Central African Republic (CAR) after the death of two elite soldiers, which have highlighted the risks of a mission that aims to disarm rogue rebels who have plunged the country into chaos.  The death of the two French soldiers came hours before French President Francois Hollande visited the country.

First French Losses

Antoine Le Quinio, 22, and Nicolas Vokaer, 23, both members of the 8^th Parachute regiment that is based in Castres, south western France, died overnight Monday after being caught up in a fierce fire fight during a night patrol in the capital city of Bangui, where sectarian clashes last week killed hundreds.  French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirmed the first French losses, stating that they would have no impact on the tactics or the size of the 1,600-strong force that Paris has deployed in its former colony.  Claude Bartolone, speaker of France’s National Assembly, told reporters that the soldiers “were injured and very quickly taken to the surgical unit, but unfortunately they could not be saved.”

The French troops, along with African peacekeepers, had launched an operation on Monday to forcibly disarm militiamen who claim to be part of a new national army.  After last week’s clashes, in which the Red Cross has indicated that 394 people were killed in three days of fighting, tensions throughout the country remain high, with fear of continued violence.  While the French army has indicated that it had restored some stability in the capital by Monday night, low-level violence continued on Tuesday.

Following a request from France, the United States announced on Monday that it would help fly African Union (AU) peacekeeping troops into the CAR.  According to a spokesman for US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, US forces have been ordered “to begin transporting forces from Burundi to the Central African Republic.”  US President Barack Obama has also called for calm and has asked the CAR’s transitional government to arrest those who are committing crimes.

Presidential Visit

Meanwhile President Francois Hollande arrived in Bangui on Tuesday after attending a memorial service for South African former president Nelson Mandela in Johannesburg.  Upon his arrival, the French leader paid tribute to his country’s two fallen soldiers.  During the short visit, the French President is expected to meet with Michel Djotodia, the country’s interim president.

Francois Hollande has defended France’s military intervention in the CAR, stating that it was necessary to avoid a bloodbath.  Speaking in Bangui, the French leader stated, “it was time to act.  In Bangui itself, nearly 400 people were killed.  There was no time to procrastinate.”

Elections

France’s envoy to the United Nations announced on Tuesday that his country wants elections in the CAR to be held “as quickly as possible,” preferably by late 2014.  Speaking at UN headquarters in New York, Ambassador Gerard Araud told reporters that “in light of political tensions on the ground, it would be preferable to have elections as quickly as possible, that is to say in the second half of 2014,” adding that “if the elections could take place in the second half of 2014, in the fall of 2014, that could be positive.”  Currently, the CAR has a deadline to hold legislative and president

Loya Jirga Debates US-Afghan Security Pact Amidst Tensions

Beginning yesterday, the Loya Jirga, a council of Afghan tribal elders and other influential individuals, is currently considering the proposed pact between the United States and Hamid Karzai’s government regarding the future of foreign troops in Afghanistan. While the Loya Jirga is widely expected to approve the pact, negotiations over the security arrangement have exposed the serious divides and tensions between the US and the Afghan government. Similar issues torpedoed the proposed pact between the US and Iraq, leading to the eventual withdrawal of all foreign combat troops in 2012.

The Loya Jirga consists of 2500 senior Afghan figures, including tribal elders, politicians, civil servants and NGO representatives. While its decision is not normally binding, President Karzai has announced that the security pact will only be signed if ratified by both the Loya Jirga and the Afghan parliament. The meeting will continue for four days, after which the delegates will vote. Currently, the delegates have split into many smaller sections to discuss and debate the pact. Reports from the scene suggest that while some of these debates are peaceful, others are extremely heated, and a small number of delegates have left the Loya Jirga in protest already. Nevertheless, the Loya Jirga is still expected to approve the decision, and subsequently the Afghan parliament will likely rubber stamp the pact. A rejection of the pact would likely see the complete withdrawal of ISAF forces at the end of 2014.

President Karzai appears have called the Loya Jirga in an effort to shift responsibility for the decision away from himself – the continuing presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan is extremely unpopular with significant sections of the Afghan populace. Another recent move by Karzai would have the pact signed by his Presidential successor following elections next year, something else that would likely protect his own position and has strained relationships with Washington.

The whole process of negotiating and signing the pact has in fact exposed the divides between the United States and Karzai’s government. The US wanted the pact signed by the end of last month, and continues to maintain that it’s timetable requires an agreement by the end of 2013. Particularly problematic areas have included criminal jurisdiction over American troops, and the ability of ISAF forces to enter Afghan homes without consulting Afghan authorities. Karzai’s relationship with Washington overall has been extremely problematic – the President’s frequent criticism of ISAF forces and about-turns on policy have created problems, while Karzai himself has often been placed in awkward situations domestically caused by the actions of US forces, such as in causing the deaths of civilians. The President recently announced that there was “no trust” between Washington and himself.

While the Taliban has rejected the Loya Jirga, and attacked a previous one in 2011, no attacks directed against the meeting have occurred amidst extremely high security in Kabul. However, last week, a bombing directed at the compound prior to the delegate’s arrival killed ten. The security implications of the Loya Jirga are more long term – the government of Afghanistan remains reliant on foreign aid, and would find it extremely difficult to support its security apparatus if relations with Washington disintegrated. The successful signing of the security pact is a key part of preserving this relationship for the next decade.

MENA Update

Algeria

UNHRC: Polisario camps becoming a recruiting ground for terrorists and traffickers

A report released by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has found that refugee camps run by the separatist Polisario Front near Tindouf, Algeria, may have become a recruiting ground for terrorists and traffickers in North Africa.

Reports spanning back to 2009 show Polisario involvement in drugs and arms trafficking throughout the Sahel and Sahara; armed incursions in Mali; mercenary work under Gadhafi in Libya; and kidnappings and collaboration with  AQIM. According to reports, the Polisario camps in Algeria have become a recruiting ground for AQIM, a hub for Polisario traffickers, and a threat to the region. Analysts are concerned about an “arc of instability” stretching across Africa, linking militants from AQIM, Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Shabaab in Somalia, and the Polisario. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon recently warned, “inaction could be catastrophic.”

Since 1990, international support for the camps has exceeded $1 billion. The UNHRC report recommends that support for the camps be used for durable solutions to resettle refugees, remove security threats, and improve humanitarian conditions.

Bahrain

Leaked report reveals Bahraini bid to replenish tear gas

A leaked report has revealed that in June, Bahrain’s interior ministry tendered bids for the provision of 1.6 million tear gas projectiles, 90,000 tear gas grenades and 145,000 stun grenades. The bid would replace nearly all of Bahrain’s projectiles used since 2011. The document does not reveal how much money Bahrain is prepared to spend on replenishing its supplies.

Bahraini forces have used tear gas extensively since 2011, as the minority Sunni government struggles faces daily low-level confrontations from a predominantly Shia population. Tear gas is among the most commonly-used methods to disperse protesters. In 2012, the US barred exports of tear gas to Bahrain, citing human rights concerns. Activists claim South Korean companies may be preparing to meet Bahrain’s tear gas requirements. The rise in global activism has spurred sales for non-lethal weapons as governments shift spending from counter terrorism to counter-activist policies.

Egypt

Bombings in Suez, Sinai; police sent to trial

Two people were killed, and five wounded, when militants set off four roadside bombs targeting a security convoy in the Sinai Peninsula on 22 October. The convoy was travelling from Rafah, on the Gaza border, towards El Arish. The militants then exchanged fire with the security forces and fled. No one has yet claimed responsibility. The same day, militant group Ansar Beit Al Maqdis claimed responsibility for a car bombing on 19 October in Ismailiya that wounded six.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s public prosecutor has sent policemen to trial on charges of manslaughter over the deaths of 37 Islamist prisoners that were tear-gassed in a transport truck in August. The trials will be the first of policemen accused of killings in a massive crackdown of pro-Muslim Brotherhood supporters since army’s July 3 removal of president Mohamed Morsi.

Iraq

Sectarian violence continues

At least 17 people were killed and 20 wounded in bombings and shootings on 22 October, when Iraqi forces clashed with an Al Qaeda militant hideout in the Himreen Mountains. The clashes resulted in the killing of four militants and the capture of seven others, all of whom were wanted for terrorism charges. A helicopter pilot was also wounded by the gunmen during the operation.

Earlier in the day, a suicide bomber blew up an explosive-laden car at the entrance of the home of Waqass Adnan, mayor of the city of Aana, some 250 km west of Baghdad. The blast was followed by a coordinated attack on the guards of the house, in an attempt to break in. In the process, four policemen and the brother of the mayor were killed, and four policemen were wounded. The mayor himself unharmed.

Meanwhile, in separate incidents, another suicide bomber rammed his explosive-packed car into the entrance of Aana police station and blew it up, killing two policemen and wounding three others. Gunmen fired mortars at a police station in Rawa city, west of Baghdad, killing a policeman and wounding seven others; a farmer was killed and his relative wounded when gunmen fired at them near a bridge northeast of Baquba, and a worker in a Sunni mosque was wounded by gunmen who fired at him in front of his house, about 20 km northeast of Baquba.

Sectarian tension between Sunni and Shiite Muslims in the Diyala province has increased, resulting in violence and reprisal killings. Sunnis and Shiites accuse each other of supporting extremists and militiamen. Across the nation Iraq is witnessing its worst escalation of violence in recent years, causing analysts to fear that the country is returning to the civil conflict that peaked in 2006 and 2007, when monthly death toll sometimes exceeded 3,000.

Lebanon

Missiles from Syria Target Eastern Lebanon City

On 21 October, four rockets launched from Syria hit Hermel. The source was unable to confirm casualties. Hermel and other border areas of Lebanon have suffered frequent attacks since Syria’s uprising escalated into a civil war, sometimes impacting neighbouring Lebanon.

The eastern Lebanese city is a Hezbollah stronghold. Hezbollah, which supports the Syrian government led by Bashar al Assad, has been openly involved in Syria’s war, sending fighters to support the loyalist army on the battlefield.

Lebanon had been dominated politically and militarily by Syria for 30 years, until 2005. The country is heavily divided on pro and anti Assad lines. As a result, the war in Syria has served to escalate Lebanon’s sectarian and political divisions.

Libya

Disabled veterans break into Libyan parliament building

On October 22, several disabled former rebels from the Libyan War broke into the parliament building and vandalised parts of the building. The event occurred on the day before the second anniversary of the rebel victory over Gadhafi forces, days after the dictator was killed in Sirte.

The protesters came from the town of Ajdabiya, between Tripoli and eastern Libya. The city was a major battleground in the 2011 war.

An MP stated, “They got into the Congress chamber and smashed some fittings.” The chamber was empty at the time but the act was decried as a “new assault on a state institution.” The vandalism is the latest in a series of security breaches at the General National Congress building.

In an effort to increase security and gain acceptance from rebel groups, the government has given some militia units varying degrees of official recognition. However, their control over the units is minimal. Analysts are concerned about the interim government’s ability to assert its control over militias and security throughout the country. Former rebels units, some sympathetic to Al-Qaeda, have refused to surrender their arms.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia announces “major shift” in relationship with United States

On 22 October, Saudi Arabia’s intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan told European diplomats that the kingdom will make a “major shift” in its relations with the United States.

The prince criticised actions and inactions taken by the United States, including failing to act effectively on the Syria crisis and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; growing closer to the government in Tehran; and failing to back Saudi support for the Bahraini government when it crushed an anti-government revolt during the 2011 uprising. As a result, Prince Bandar has stated that he plans to limit interaction with the US, reportedly adding that there would be no further coordination with the United States over the fighting in Syria.

The report is consistent with Saudi Arabia’s reasons for refusal of a seat on the UN Security Council as a rotating member. Though they have not openly broken ties with the US, Saudi leaders have been quietly critical of several recent US actions in the Middle East.

Prince Bandar’s announcement marks a serious setback to the relationship between the two nations; it spotlights that Saudi and US interests are not aligned on several top issues driving instability in the Middle East. In particular, the Saudi’s point to the US shift toward a containment strategy regarding Iran’s nuclear program, and the US goal of driving Assad out while leaving a Baathist government in Damascus.  The Saudi’s have vocally stated that both Assad and his government should be replaced. The US treats Syrian issues as separate from Iranian nuclear issues. The Saudis perceive them as inseparable. The differences in these world views are deep, and unlikely to be overcome easily.  The change in stance could result in a strong shift in relations between the Middle East and the West.

Syria

Snipers targeting heavily pregnant women

Snipers are playing a “targeting game,” and heavily pregnant women are on the target list. David Nott, a British surgeon who volunteers with charity Syria Relief, says that up to 90% of the surgeries he performs daily are for sniper wounds. In the case of pregnant women, “Most of the children removed were seven, eight, nine month’s gestation, which meant it was fairly obvious to anybody that these women were pregnant.” He added that young children are also being targeted, and on some days, the wounds were “suspiciously similar”, with several victims coming in with shots to the same part of the body on the same day. The similarities suggest a game between the snipers.

Knott says he was told by other local doctors that snipers may receive little presents for people they’d shot during the day.

Tunisia

Mourning period announced for downed officers; Transition negotiations continue

In a televised speech on 23 October, Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki announced three days of national mourning for eight officers killed by suspected militants in the central Sidi Bouzidi province. The announcement was made on the second anniversary of the country’s first free elections. Members of the National Guard were securing a building in the village of Sidi Ali Bououn after receiving a tip-off that a suspicious group was hiding there. A gun battle ensued, killing both security forces and militants.

Marzouki said the militants were retaliating for attacks on 17 October, when nine suspected militants were killed. Authorities say the militants had carried out an attack on police patrols.

The interior ministry believes that the militants belong to the Salafist Ansar al-Sharia group, who were linked to the murders of prominent left-wing figure Chokri Belaid in February and opposition politician Mohammed Brahmi in July.

Their deaths triggered mass protests against the government, and crippled progress between the ruling party and its opposition. While Ennahda condemned the killings, the opposition accused the leading party of failing to rein in radical Islamists.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister Ali Larayedh addressed the nation to confirm that the government would resign after talks with the opposition on appointing a caretaker administration were complete. Larayedh stated that Ennahda, the current ruling party in Tunisia, is committed to the “principle of relinquishing power in line with the different phases envisaged in the roadmap”.

Larayedh’s speech came following anti-government protests in Tunis, who demanded that the Islamist-led ruling coalition government leave immediately. Ennahda has been accused of stalling talks in order to maintain power in the government. Both Ennahda and the opposition have set a three weeks deadline to appoint the interim cabinet, and a one month deadline to adopt a new constitution, electoral laws and set an election date.

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