MS Risk Blog

Brexit: Article 50 to be Triggered on 29 March

Officials announced on Monday, 20 March that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is to officially notify the European Union (EU) on 29 march that the UK is leaving the bloc.

Downing Street announced last week that the prime minister would write a letter to the European Council, adding that it hoped negotiations on the terms of exit and future relations could begin as quickly as possible. A No 10 spokesman disclosed that the UKs Ambassador to the EU, Sir Time Barrow, had informed the European Council, which is headed by President Donald Tusk, earlier on Monday of the date that Article 50 would be triggered. In response to the news, Mr Tusk tweeted within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50, I will present the draft Brexit guidelines to the EU 27 Member states. This will set out Britains demands for talks.

Mr Tusk has previously sated that he expects to call an extraordinary summit of the 27 other members within four to six weeks, in order to draw up a mandate for the European Commissions chief negotiator, Michel Barnier. It is likely that a summit will not be held until early May. Preparations may be slowed by holidays around Easter on 16 April and on 1 May. Brussels also wants to avoid clashing with the two-round French presidential election on 23 April and 7 May. Officials have indicated that they would prefer to hold the summit before French President Francois Hollande steps down around mid-May.

Under the Article 50 process, talks on the terms of exit and future relations are not allowed until the UK formally tells the EU that it is leaving. If all goes according to the two-year negotiations allowed for in the official timetable, Brexit should happen in March 2019. EU leaders have said that they want to conclude the talks within eighteen months in order to allow the terms of the UKs exit to be ratified by the UK Parliament and the European Parliament, as well as approved by the necessary majority of EU states.

Mrs May has disclosed that MPs and peers will have a vote on the deal that she negotiates, noting however that the UK will leave anyway even if Parliament rejects it. The government has said that it expects to secure a positive outcome, warning however that there is a chance of there being no formal agreement.

Meanwhile Mrs Mays spokesman also rejected reports that an early election may be held, stating its not going to happen.

Terror Attack In London

Last week, London was rocked by what authorities are calling a terrorist attack, after a man in a vehicle ploughed into pedestrians near Parliament in the central part of the British capital.

The attack, which occurred during the afternoon hours on Wednesday 22 March resulted in four deaths after the man drove his car along a pavement on Westminster Bridge, knocking down pedestrians, creating panic and leaving at least fifty people injured. After crashing his car into railings, the attacker ran towards Parliament where he stabbed a police officer to death. Armed police then shot the attacker. The attack lasted 82 seconds.

In the days that have followed, information emerged regarding the attacker. On Thursday 23 March, Prime Minister Theresa May revealed that the Westminster attacker was a British-born man who was known to the police and intelligence services. The attacker has been named as Khalid Masood. Speaking to MPs on Thursday, she disclosed that the authorities had investigated some years ago but was not part of the current intelligence picture.

Overnight, police officials carried out several raids across the country, which resulted in eight arrests in London and Birmingham. In total, eleven people have been arrested and nine people in total have been released without charge. Scotland Yard has since reported that Masood acted alone and that there is no information to suggest that further attacks are planned. The Metropolitan Police have disclosed that Masoon, 52, had previous criminal convictions but none for terrorism. He had used a number of aliases. At birth, he was registered in Dartford, Kent, as Adrian Elms, but later took his stepfathers name become Adrian Ajao in childhood. In the early 2000s, he was convicted of causing grievous bodily harm after slashing a man across the face with a knife in a pub.

The so-called Islamic State (IS) group has disclosed that it was behind the attack, stating that the attacker had been a soldier of the Islamic State.

From bad to worse: Fleeing the Northern Triangle for Mexico

The contemporary security situation in Mexico is affected by various external factors. According to the UNHCRs international protection chief, the stream of refugees from the Northern Triangle of Central America constitutes one of these factors. The UN official, Volker Trk, described the situation as approaching crisis levels. For decades, Mexico has served as a place of transit for Central American migrants heading north. But in the last few years the reality has changed with an increasing number of people from the so-called Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, actually seeking asylum in Mexico. The inflow is increased even more due to the recent crackdown by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) on illegal immigrants and the resulting increase in deportations back down south to the Northern Triangle and Mexico. Last year, Mexico received almost 9,000 new asylum applications, a 156 per cent increase in comparison to 2015. Since January 2015, the number of asylum applications filed has increased by more than eight per cent per month. Based on this trend, the UN Refugee Agency projects at least 20,000 additional asylum claims in Mexico in 2017. However, for those fleeing from extortion, forced recruitment and human rights abuses perpetrated by transnational organized crime groups and local criminal gangs, Mexico is not necessarily the Promised Land as violence in Americas southern neighbor is not particularly letting up. After years of falling homicide levels, Mexico is suffering a deteriorating security situation not seen since former president Felipe Calderon announced a war on drug gangs in 2007. Veracruz, home to rival cartels such as the Zetas and the Jalisco New Generation saw 1,258 registered homicides last year alone. This month, authorities confirmed the discovery of more than 250 bodies in what appears to be a drug cartel mass burial ground on the outskirts of the city of Veracruz. The clandestine graves are of such an industrial scale that backhoes or bulldozers were likely used in creating them and contain so many bodies that officials arent digging in some places because they dont have space for the remains. Another site south of the city of Veracruz where there were apparently also clandestine graves, is not being explored yet, because the morgues cant handle all the bodies. The industrial nature of the mass graves make it unlikely that authorities did not know about them. Meanwhile, the former governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte is being sought over allegations he was involved in organized crime and money laundering. Elsewhere in Mexico, hidden graves have been found containing hundreds of bodies. In January, 56 bodies were found in a grave in the northern state of Nuevo Leon, where drug cartels vie for control of the routes toward the US. So, while the refugees are leaving a terrible situation behind, coming to Mexico might mean they are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

Syrian War: 465,000 Killed in Six Years of Fighting

This month, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is a British-based war monitor, reported that so far about 465,000 people have been killed and missing in Syrias ongoing civil war.

The war began six years ago on 15 March, with protests against President Bashar al-Assads government. Since then, it has dragged in global and regional powers, allowed the so-called Islamic State (IS) group to gain hold of huge tracts of territory and has caused the biggest refugee crisis since the Second World War.

The Observatory has reported that it had documented the deaths of more than 321,000 people since the beginning of the war, adding that more than 145,000 people have been reported as missing. The Observatory, which has used a network of contacts across the country in order to maintain a count of causalities since near the beginning of the conflict, states that amongst those killed are more than 96,000 civilians, adding that government forces and their allies killed more than 83,500 civilians, including more than 27,500 in air strikes and 14,600 under torture in prison. Rebel shelling killed more than 7,000 civilians. IS has killed more than 3,700 civilians, while air strikes by the US-led coalition have killed 920 civilians. Turkey, which is backing rebels in the northern region of the country, has killed more than 500 civilians. The Syrian government and Russia both deny targeting civilians or using torture or extrajudicial killings. Most rebel groups and Turkey also deny targeting civilians while the US led-coalition states that it tries hard to avoid civilian causalities and always investigates reports that it has done so.

French Election: Leading Candidates Clash in First TV Debate

The two leading candidates in the French presidential election clashed on Monday 21 March during a fiery TV debate.

Five candidates participated in Monday evenings debate: far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, centrist Emmanuel Macron, centre-right contender Francois Fillon, and left-wingers Benoit Hamon and Jean-Luc Melenchon. All five discussed the big issues for France, including jobs, terrorism and the countrys place in Europe.

Le Pen and Macron clashed over the full-body burkini swimsuit worn by some Muslim women, with Ms Le Pen stating that multiculturalism must end. Mr Macron accused the National Front leader of making enemies of Muslims in France. Throughout the debate, Mr Macron appeared to be keen to take on Ms Le Pen, arguing that the burkini was a public order matter and not a challenge to Frances tradition of secularism as Ms Le Pen has suggested. Last summer, a number of southern French resorts banned the swimsuit before Frances highest administrative court found that the ban breached fundamental freedoms.

During the debate, Mr Macron stated that he would change the countrys traditional political divisiveness, while Ms Le Pen said that she wanted a France that was not a vague region of the EU or subservient to Chancellor Angela Merkels Germany. She later vowed to stop all immigration. Meanwhile Mr Fillon stated that if was elected, he would be the president of what he called the national recovery. Mr Macron also appeared to take a swipe at Mr Fillon. After accusing Ms Le Pen of defamation, he stated that justice would prevail as it would in the case of certain presidential candidates. That was an apparent reference to the ongoing judicial investigation into allegations that Mr Fillon paid his wife hundreds of thousands of euros for parliamentary work that she did no do. Mr Fillon has denied the allegations and has refused to quit the race, stating that he is a victim of a political assassination. The candidates also clashed over how to tackle the unemployment situation, which has long stood at about 10%. In a bid to broaden her appeal, Ms Le pen called for a patriotic economy, which is a protectionist measure that favours French companies. Mr Fillon however stated that her plans would cause economic chaos. On the left, Mr Hamon called for the introduction of a universal basic income, which he said was the only innovative idea in the election campaign.

Focus groups have suggested that Mr Macron was the winner of the debate.

Voters will go to the polls on 23 April and if no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes, the two top contenders will go into a second round on 7 May. The latest Odoxa poll states that Mr Macron would lead first-round voting with 26.5 percent, just ahead of Ms Le pen on 26 percent, before beating her 64 36 in the run-off. Mr Fillon scored 19 percent of first-round voting intentions in the poll, confirming the task faced by the on-time frontrunner to revive a campaign that has been severely hit by the fraud investigation. A separate poll by Kantar Sofres-Onepoint showed a similar trend for the first round, with Mr Macron and Ms Lepen tied on 26 percent, ahead of Mr Fillon on 17 percent. The polls were taken before Mondays TV Debate.

On Saturday 18 March, the officials campaign period got under way when Frances Constitutional Council announced a list of eleven contenders who had met conditions to stand.