MS Risk Blog

UN: Syrian Refugee Numbers Pass 5 Million Mark in Region

Data from the United Nations refugees agency released late last month showed that the number of people fleeing Syria’s civil war to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt has passed the 5 million mark.

According to the latest data collected by UNHCR and the government of Turkey, a total of 5,018,168 people have now taken refugee in Syria’s neighbours and in other countries in the regions. Millions more have fled to other parts of the country, including tends of thousands in March, mainly women and children, who were trying to get away from a rebel offensive northwest of the city of Hama.

Since 2011, in the wake of anti-government protests, which spiralled into a full-blown conflict between rebels, Islamist militants, government troops and foreign backers Syrians have poured across these countries borders. While an initial rush of refugees in 2013 and 2014 steadied for the following two years, the numbers have again risen this year after the military victory by the government and its Russian allies in the northern city of Aleppo. Syrians have also fled to Europe in large numbers, making 884,461 asylum claims between April 2011 and October 2016, with almost two-thirds of those claims being in Germany or Sweden. Hundreds of thousands more live in Gulf countries that are no party to the 1951 Refugee Convention, such as Saudi Arabi, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, so they are not recorded as refugees. A UN-led humanitarian appeal to help Syrian refugees and support host communities has received only 6 percent of the money that it requires this year – US $298 million out of US $4.6 billion.

French Presidential Election: Macron Clashes with Le Pen During Televised Debate

Centrist Emmanuel Macron has kept his position as favourite to win France’s presidential election after a televised debate on Tuesday night, during which he clashed with his main rival, Marine Le Pen, over Europe. The debate comes just nineteen days before the election.

Criticising Ms Le Pen, the leader of the National Front (FN) who wants to leave the euro, hold a referendum on European Union (EU) membership and curb immigration, Mr Macron stated, “nationalism is war. I know it. I come from a region that is full of graveyards.” Mr Macron, who has voiced his strong pro-European views, comes from the Somme region, which was a major battlefield during World War One. Ms Le Pen however hit back at Mr Macron, stating “you should pretend to be something new when you are speaking like old fossils that are at lest 50 years old,” to which Mr Macron replied “sorry to tell you this, Madame Le Pen, but you are saying the same lies that we’ve heard from your father for 40 years.” The comment appeared to be a swipe at Le Pen’s efforts to clean up the image of the party that her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founded and to make it more palatable to mainstream voters.

According to a snap survey, Mr Macron was seen as having the best political programme, with the survey also placing him as the second most convincing performer in the four-hour debate, which involved all eleven presidential candidates. The Elabe snap poll, which was tkane when the debate ended in the early hours of Wednesday, gave firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, a veteran of France’s political circuit, first place as the most convincing performer. Ms Le Pen lagged in fourth place, behind Mr Macron and Francois Fillon. Mr Macron was also seen in the same poll as having the best programme of all the candidates by 23 percent of viewers, followed by Melenchon, whose ratings have been rising since the first televised debate in March, to the detriment of Socialist Party candidate Benoit Hamon.

While the Elabe poll did not show voting intentions, other surveys have consistently shown Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen qualifying for the 7 May runoff, with Mr Macron ultimately winning the presidential election. However the high level of undecided voters means that the ballot remains unpredictable.

It currently remains unclear if a final televised debate, due to take place on 20 April, will occur after several of the leading candidates have disclosed that it is being held too close to the election itself, with the first round of voting due to take place on 23 April.

Revisión de los incidentes en la región (Semana del 5 abril de 2017)

Amenaza a la libertad de prensa en México. Decenas de periodistas se han estado manifestando a lo largo de las pasadas semanas por la inseguridad que sufren ejerciendo su profesión. El pasado marzo fue uno de los meses más sangrientos que se recuerdan, desde el año 2000 son ya 123 los periodistas asesinados. La situación ha forzado el cierre del periódico Norte de Ciudad de Juárez por la extrema violencia y persecución. La Sociedad Interamericana de Prensa ha pedido al Gobierno de México que haga un mayor esfuerzo en la protección de los periodistas, profesión clave para la democracia. México es actualmente considerado el país más peligroso del continente para ejercer la profesión periodística.

Graves altercados en Asunción, Paraguay, tras el intento del actual presidente Horacio Cartes de reformar la Constitución del país para poder ser reelegido en las elecciones de 2018. Las protestas llegaron hasta el mismo Congreso que fue saqueado y parcialmente quemado por los manifestantes. Las protestas terminaron con 211 detenidos y un muerto cuando la policía asaltó la sede del Partido Liberal. Sorprendentemente, el conservador Partido Colorado, ahora dividido entre fieles y opositores al presidente Cartes, cuenta con el apoyo del izquierdista Frente Guasú que, con la reforma de la Constitución, pretende volver a poner a su expresidente Fernando Lugo en el poder en las próximas elecciones, dado que lidera en los sondeos, tras su destitución en 2012. Mientras, el Partido Liberal acusa al presidente de un golpe de estado por la reforma de la Constitución, así como por el asalto a su sede nacional.

El mal tiempo en la región del Putumayo provocó en la madrugada del 1 de abril el desbordamiento de tres ríos a la altura de Mocoa, la capital del departamento. Las cifras ascienden a 290 fallecidos, más de 370 heridos y un número indeterminado de desaparecidos en una localidad de unos 45.000 habitantes. El Gobierno colombiano declaró el estado de calamidad y movilizó a 1.120 militares para las labores de salvamento, mientras se abren las vías de acceso a la ciudad para poner a salvo a la población.

Tensa situación post electoral en Ecuador tras la victoria de Lenin Moreno, declarado sucesor de Rafael Correa, en las elecciones a la presidencia del país. A pesar del aval de varias misiones de observación internacionales, entre ellas la de la Organización de Estados Americanos, el opositor Guillermo Lasso no ha aceptado los resultados y llama a sus seguidores a salir a las calles para exigir el recuento de los votos. Mientras, Luis Almagro, presidente de la OEA ha dado validez a los resultados y felicitado, junto a muchos otros jefes de estado, a Moreno por su victoria.

US President Trumps State Visit to the UK Delayed

Reports emerged this month that United States President Donald Trumps state visit to the United Kingdom may have been delayed in an attempt to allow dissent over the controversial trip to dissipate.

On 10 March, Buckingham Palace announced that the King of Spain will travel to Britain, with sources indicated that this points strongly towards an October visit by President Trump. In a short statement, Buckingham Palace disclosed that King Felipe VI, accompanied by Queen Letizia of Spain, has accepted an invitation from the Queen to pay a state visit to the United Kingdom from 6^th to 8^th June 2017. King Felipe postponed a state visit to Britain in March 2016 because of a political crisis, however there have since been reports indicating that President Trumps visit had been moved from June until the end of the year in the hopes that any protests would be lessened.

An online petition calling for President Trump not to make a state visit was signed by 1.8 million people. However despite the strong opposition, the Government has disclosed that the visit will go ahead. Prime Minister Theresa May announced that President Trump was being extended the honour of a state visit when she became the first international leader to visit him at the White House following his inauguration in January.

Explosion in St Petersburg Metro Station

Fourteen people were killed and a further fifty were wounded on Monday 3 April in a blast that occurred in a St Petersburg train carriage.

The explosion on Monday afternoon at 2:40 PM (1140 GMT) occurred when the train was in a tunnel deep underground, which amplified the force of the blast. The carriage door was blown off, with witnesses describing seeing injured passengers with bloodied and blackened bodies. State investigative authorities have disclosed that fragments of the body of the suspect had been found amongst the dead, indicating that he was a suicide bomber.

The National Anti-Terrorist Committee reported on Monday that an explosive device had been found at another station, hidden in a fire extinguisher, adding that it had been defused. It was unclear who had placed that device, and so far no arrests have been made.

Authorities disclosed on Tuesday 4 April that the main suspect behind the attack is a Russian citizen, originally from mainly Muslim Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz GKNP security service has identified the suspect as Azbarzhon Jalilov, born in the city of Osh in 1995. The security service however has provided no further detail about the suspect. Citing law enforcement officials, Russian media have reported that the perpetrator had radical Islamist links, which has raised the possibility that the attack could have been inspired by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, which has not struck a major city in Russia before. So far however there has been no official confirmation or claim of responsibility.

Russia has been on alert against attacks in reprisal for its military intervention in Syria, where Moscow’ forces have been supporting troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad against Western-backed armed group s as well as IS.   The militant group is now under attack by all sides in Syria’s multi-faceted war and it has repeatedly threatened revenge and has ben linked to recent bombings elsewhere in Europe. Monday’s attack in Russia has raised security fears beyond Russian frontiers, with France, which has itself suffered a series of terrorist attacks, announcing additional security measures in Paris.