MS Risk Blog

US Announces Decline in Illegal Immigrant Crossings

The United States government announced this month that the number of illegal immigrants crossing into the US from Mexico went down by 40% from January to February.

Homeland Security Chief John Kelly disclosed that the “change in trends” was the result of President Donald Trump’s tough policies. Mr Kelly disclosed that the number of “inadmissible persons” crossing the US-Mexico border had dropped this year from 31,578 to 18,762 in January to February – a period when the number of arrests of illegal immigrants usually increases. He disclosed that “since the administration’s implementation of executive orders to enforce immigration laws, apprehensions and inadmissible activity is trending toward the lowest monthly total in at least the last five years.”

New rules announced by the Trump Administration last month included plans to send undocumented people to Mexico, even if they are not Mexicans, and expand the criteria for immediate deportations. The government disclosed that the new guidelines would not usher in mass deportations, but were instead designed to empower agents to enforce laws that are already on the books. The president has also signed an executive order for an “impassable physical barrier” on the US-Mexico border and has insisted that Mexico will pay for it, despite its repeated refusals. The measures have been condemned by Mexico as being “hostile and “unacceptable.”

The president made immigration and border control a key part of his election campaign, promising to protect Americans from “bad dudes.” An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the US, many of whom are from Mexico.

Meanwhile on Monday 6 March, President Trump revised his travel ban, barring people from six mainly Muslim countries. The ban however has since faced its first legal challenge from the state of Hawaii. State lawyers have asked for an emergency block on the order, stating that the measure will harm its residents, businesses and schools.

While the revised measure removed some of the more controversial language on religious minorities, Hawaii Attorney General Doug Chin disclosed that it still constituted a “Muslim ban” due to the countries involved and past statements from the administration.

The directive, which includes a 120-day ban on all refugees, will take effect on 16 March. Citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Somali, Sudan and Yemen, the other six countries on the original 27 January order, will once more be subject to a 90-day travel ban. Iraq, which was listed on the original order, has since been removed from the list.

President Trump’s previous order was halted by the US federal courts amidst concerns that it unfairly targeted Muslims. It caused chaos at airports and mass protests.

Wikileaks Offers Tech Firms First Pick at CIA Files

Last week, Wikileaks announced that technology firms will get “exclusive access” to details of the CIA’s cyber-warfare programme. The statement comes after the anti-secrecy website published thousands of the US spy agency’s secret documents, including what it says are the CIA’s hacking tools.

On Thursday 9 March, Wikileaks founder Julian Assange stated that, after some thought, he had decided to give the tech community further leaks first. Mr Assange disclosed that “once the material is effectively disarmed, we will publish details.” US federal agencies have already launched a criminal investigation into the release of the documents.

In its first tranche of leaks, Wikileaks alleged that the CIA had developed what Mr Assange called “a giant arsenal” of malware to attack “all the systems that average people use.” Tech firms, including Apple and Google, have since stated that hey are developing counter-measures to combat any malware that the CIA may have developed. Mr Assange has disclosed that his organization had “a lost more information on the cyber-weapons programme,” noting that while Wikileaks maintained a neutral position on most of its leaks, in this case it did make a strong stance, stating “we want to secure communications technology because, without it, journalists aren’t able to hold the state to account.” Mr Assange also claimed that the intelligence service had known for weeks that Wikileaks had access to the material and done nothing about it.

On Thursday, Mr Assange also spoke more about the Umbrage programme, which was revealed in the first leaked documents. He stated that a whole section of the CIA is working on Umbrage, a system that attempts to trick people into thinking that they have been hacked by other groups or countries by collecting malware from other nation states, such as Russia. He noted that “the technology is designed to be unaccountable,” and claimed that an anti-virus expert, who was not named, had come forward to say that he believed sophisticated malware that he had previously attributed to Iran, Russia and China, now looked like something that the CIA had developed.   Mr Assange went on to say that “the type of attack system corresponds to a description we published of that attack system unless of course China has already got hold of these parts of the CIA arsenal and is using it to pretend to be the CIA,” adding that the intelligence agency could potentially be causing the tech industry “billions of dollars of damage.”

Poland Fails to Stop Tusk EU Re-Election

On Thursday 9 March, European Union (EU) leaders re-elected President of European Council Donald Tusk despite a bid to oust him by his home country Poland. The re-election came after earlier in the day Poland had threatened to derail Thursday’s EU summit as it attempted to bloc Tusk’s re-election.

Sources have indicated that the leaders voted 27 to one to give him another two-and-a-half-year term.

Arriving at the summit on Thursday, Prime Minister Beata Szydlo stated that nothing should be decided without Poland’s agreement. Ms Szydlo had also written a letter to EU leaders, stating that Mr Tusk has “violated multiple times his European mandate” by getting involved in Polish political disputes and supporting the opposition to the government. The EU has angered Poland’s nationalist government by criticizing changes to the country’s top court, new restrictions on journalists and it opposition to resettling refugees by quota. Meanwhile in an interview earlier with Polish television, Foreign Minister Waszczykowski stated that his country could even veto the summit’s conclusions to scupper Mr Tusk’s re-election. Prime Minister Joseph Muscat of Malta, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, however suggested that Mr Tusk’s re-election could not be blocked, stating “one country, or a number of countries might be against that decision, but one country cannot block a decision…There are very clear rules of engagement and rules of procedure which we will follow.”

Speaking after EU leaders re-elected Mr Tusk to a second term, Poland’s Prime Minister stated that Mr Tusk’s re-appointment would damage EU efforts to recover after the UK’s departure and that it was a “question of principles” that any candidate for the post should be backed by his home country.

The ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) implacably opposes Mr Tusk, who is a former minister from a rival party. While on the ground sources have indicated that such hostility among patriots is highly unusual in EU politics, Mr Tusk was expected to get enough support to keep his post. He had the backing of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said that his re-election to a new 30-month term would be a “sign of stability. As European Council president, Mr Tusk would be a major role in the UK’s Brexit negotiations.

Prior to Thursday’s vote, Poland’s government was desperate in trying to prevent Mr Tusk from being re-elected to a second term as president of the European Council. They went as far as to propose its own candidate – a little-known Polish MEP called Jacek Saryusz-Wolski.

There has also been some suggestion that the UK may abstain from the vote in a bid to win Polish support over Brexit negotiations. However ultimately all but Poland voted for Mr Tusk, with the Press Association news agency quoting UK government sources as saying that Prime Minister Theresa May was “pleased” that he had been re-elected.

Election in The Netherlands: After Brexit Second Chance For Populism

The Election Day is approaching in the Netherlands. First of a series of national elections that in the few months will help to decide the future for the European Union. The bloc’s two largest economies, France and Germany, will hold elections in two round for France (April and May) and September in Germany. Also Italy, depending on the status of its fragile governments, may join them. However, kicking it all off is the Netherlands, whose voters will go to the polls on the 15^th on March. In the Netherlands, as in many other EU countries, nationalist and Euroskeptic parties are performing well in opinion polls.

In recent years, elections in many European countries have shown that popular support for mainstream political parties is waning as anti-system and Euroskeptic forces are gaining popularity. The Netherlands, one of the wealthiest countries in Europe, is following this trend.

Its parliament is composed of numerous parties, and coalitions are often needed to form governments. According to opinion polls, in the coming election, the ruling People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy of Prime Minister Mark Rutte would win from 23 to 28 of the 150 seats in the Dutch parliament. This would be a significant decline from the 41 seats it won in the general election of 2012. Similarly, the Labor Party would win 10 to 12 seats, well below the 38 seats it obtained in the last election.

These votes could be lost in favor of the euroskeptic Party of Freedom, who according to January opinion polls could double its parliamentary representation, reaching between 29 and 35 seats (in 2012, it won only 15 seats). That party and its leader, Geert Wilders, want the Netherlands to leave the European Union (a so-called Nexit) and to reintroduce the guilder as its national currency. The party has a strong anti-immigration and anti-Muslim agenda, presenting itself as a protector of Dutch culture and identity.

With the financial crisis over in the Netherlands, the economy is growing and has faded as an election issue, so Wildres’ electoral campaign has been dominated for the most part by the issue of immigration. Wilders has vowed to ban Muslim immigration and shut mosques if he wins. He was also convicted in December in a hate speech trial over his promise to reduce the number of Moroccans in the country.

However, Wilders’ campaign is faltering, with immigrants who make up 30% of Dutch population. Concerning the EU issue, opinion polls suggest support for a Dutch “Nexit” in the months after the Brexit vote fell by 8% to 25%. Pollsters say people have realized that leaving the EU would be more complicated than they thought. Nevertheless, according to latest polls two weeks before elections he was still leading polls.

But even if the Party of Freedom performs strongly in the election, it would struggle to enter the government. Most mainstream Dutch political parties refuse to cooperate with Wilders and have said they will exclude the Party of Freedom from the negotiations to form a government. The Party of Freedom is the only major party advocating a Nexit; the rest of the political establishment remains committed to the Netherlands’ EU membership and its role as the heart of the process of European integration.

North Korea’s History of Kidnappings and Foreign Assassinations

In February, local police reported that Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, was killed in Malaysia. Over the past several weeks, some South Korean media outlets have reported that North Korean agents were responsible for his death, so far there has been no evidence provided. However, since Kim Jong-un took power, he has made no compunction in execution officials perceived as being a threat to his authority. In one of the most high-profile incidents, his uncle and senior mentor, Chang Song-thaek, was executed. The country itself has also had a long history of sending agents overseas in order to carry out assassinations, attacks and kidnappings. Below are five such incidents.

Raid on the Blue House (1968) 

A team of thirty-one elite, handpicked North Korean commandos were sent to the south with a mission to infiltrate the Blue House, which is South Korea’s presidential residence, and assassinate President Park Chung-hee. While hiding out in the mountains above Seoul, they were discovered by a group of civilians however they decided that instead of killing them, they would teach them about communism and release them with a warning not to tell anyone. Their plan however was foiled as police and the military were notified, although the North Korean commandos managed to evade detection. They entered the capital, dressed in South Korean army uniforms, and marched to the Blue House disguised as the very soldiers tasked with locating them. At a checkpoint 100m away from the Blue House, they were questioned and a gunfight erupted. While many of the commandos managed to flee, most were later killed or committed suicide as they tried to get back to the North. One was captured. In that incident, more than ninety South Koreans wee killed, including a large group of civilians who were reportedly on a bus.

Bombing in Burma (1983)

If the incident in Malaysia is indeed an assassination attempt that occurred in a third country, then this is nothing new. A bomb hidden at the Martyrs’ Mausoleum in Rangoon, the capital of Myanmar, exploded just minutes before then South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan arrived to lay a wreath on 9 October. Mr Chun’s car had been delayed in traffic, which ultimately saved his life, however seventeen South Korean nations, including four ministers were killed, and four Burmese nationals also died. Three North Korean agents were involved in the attack and are said to have detained one of three bombs early, after hearing the sound of a bugle that mistakenly signalled the president’s arrival. They managed to flee the scene, however one was later killed nad the two others were captured.

Overseas Abductions (1970s – 1980s)

North Korea has admitted to kidnapping Japanese citizens in the 1970s nad 1980s in a bid to train its spies in Japanese customs and language. Some were kidnapped from coastal areas in Japan by North Korean agents while others from overseas. The youngest was a thirteen-year-old girl who was abducted in 1977 while on he way home from school. Pyongyang has since retuned five of the abductees, stating that eight more died. Japan however does not believe that hey are dead, adding that far more people were abducted. South Koreans have also been targeted in abduction cases, with the most high profile case being that of a film director and his actress wife, who were taken in Hong Kong to North Korea so that they could help the country build its firm industry.

Killing in Vladivostok (1996)

It is estimated that thousands of North Koreans are living in Russia, and South Korean consular official Choi Duk Keun’s job was to monitor those who were living in Vladivostock. He was found bludgeoned in October 1996, with South Korean media later reporting that he was killed to avenge the deaths of twenty-two North Korean commandos whose submarine ran aground on a beach in South Korea a month earlier.

Targeting Defectors

North Korean defections have led to assassination attempts. In 2016, when North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom defected, South Korea warned at the time of possible revenge assassinations and kidnappings. There is precedent to this as when Hwang Jang-yob, a senior politician, defected to South Korea in 1997, another prominent defector, Yi Han-yong, was shot in the head by suspected North Korea assassins. He was the nephew of Song Hye-rim, who is the mother of Kim Jong-nam. Thirteen years later, two North Korean military officials posing as defectors were jailed in South Korea for an unsuccessful plot to kill Mr Hwang.