MS Risk Blog

IS Moves to Libya’s Desert Valleys after Defeat in Sirte

Security officials are reporting that Islamic State (IS) militants have shifted to desert valleys and inland hills southeast of the capital Tripoli in their bid to exploit the North African country’s political divisions in the wake of their defeat in their former stronghold of Sirte.

Officials have disclosed that the militants, who are believed to number several hundred, are now attempting to foment chaos by cutting power supplies and identifying receptive local communities. While they are being monitored by aerial surveillance and on-the-ground intelligence, Libyan officials have noted that they cannot be easily targeted without advanced air power.

While for more than a year, IS exercised total control over Sirte, building its primary North African base in the coastal city, it struggled to keep a footing elsewhere in the country. By December 2016, it was forced out of Sirte after a six-month campaign, which was led by brigades from the western city of Misrata and backed by US air strikes. During that battle, IS lost many of its fighters and it currently holds no territory in Libya. However militants who managed to escape last year’s fighting and sleeper cells are now seen to pose a threat in the country, which had been deeply fractured and which remains largely lawless in the wake of the 2011 uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi.

Ismail Shukri, head of military intelligence in Misrata, has reported that the threat is now focussed south of the coastal strip between Misrata and Tripoli, arcing to the southeast around the town of Bani Walid and into the desert south of Sirte. According to Shukri, one group, comprised of 60 – 80 militants, is operating around Girza, which is located 170 km (105 miles) west of Sirte; while another group of about 100 militants is based around Zalla and Mabrouk oil field, which is located about 300 km southeast of Sirte. He added that there are also reports of a third group present in Al-Uwaynat, which is located close to the border with Algeria. Mohamed Gnaidy, an intelligence officer with forces that conducted the campaign in Sirte, has disclosed that “they work and move around in small groups. They only use two or three vehicles at a time and they move at night to avoid detection.

UN: Civilian Casualties from Fighting Increased in Afghanistan Last Year

According to the United Nations, civilian causalities from fighting in 2016 in Afghanistan hit their highest level since the organization began systematically gathering such information eight years ago.

A report released on 6 February by the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan reported that civilian causalities in the conflict between government forces and insurgents went up by 3% from 2015 and included 3,498 dead and 7,920 wounded. The report disclosed that the increase of causalities amongst children was 24%, with 923 deaths and 2,589 wounded. The report went on to say that antigovernment elements, mainly the Taliban, were responsible of 61% of the civilian causalities in 2016, while government forces were to blame for 20% and pro-government armed groups and international military forces, 2% each. According to the report, the remainder could not be attributed to any side or were caused by unexploded ordnance. The Taliban, which has been fighting the central government since 2001, called the UN findings biased, with spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stating “the Kabul government and the invading forces are the cause of the civilian causalities. Javid Faisal, an Afghan government spokesman, meanwhile blamed the militants for most of the causalities, adding that the government has taken many measures to avoid civilian causalities.

Most foreign troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ended its combat mission in support of the Kabul government at the end of 2014. However since then, the security situation in the country has deteriorated significantly, particularly in provinces where the country’s largest insurgency, the Taliban, have attacked more densely populated communities.

Operation Car Wash and The Future of Latin Americas Political Landscape

A dominant theme in the Latin American press for a while now has been the corruption probes that have instigated the downfall of quite a few members of the Latin American financial and political ruling class. The saga started initially as a money laundering investigation in Brazil in 2014. Operation Car-Wash has since ballooned into a multinational corruption probe that has contributed to the impeachment of a President, to the jailing of billionaires, helped stall the worlds ninth-largest economy and led to a $3.5 billion corporate fine, a world record in a graft case. At the center of attention is Odebrecht, Latin Americas largest construction company whose former CEO has been sentenced to nineteen years in prison last year. New developments are coming out every day as indicted executives and politicians are spilling the beans amid plea bargaining and spiraling media coverage. February was no exception. In Argentina the head of the National Intelligence Agency, Gustavo Arribas, a close ally to President Macri, is under investigation for taking bribes. In Peru former President Alejandro Toledo is alleged to have received $20 million in kickbacks in return for green-lighting Odebrechts bid to build sections of the Interoceanic Highway, which now links Brazil with Perus Pacific ports. Peru has issued an international arrest warrant for Toledo. In Panama thousands of people have taken to the streets in protest over a bribe paid by Odebrecht to former President Ricardo Martinelli in exchange for public contracts. US authorities say Odebrecht paid $59m in bribes 2010 and 2014. Interpol has issued a Red Notice for two of Martinellis sons. Guatemala, which saw its ex-President Otto Perez Molina jailed for corruption, faced the arrest of a Supreme Court Judge in February as part of a nation-wide anti-corruption drive. Odebrechts activities are heavily scrutinized in the Central-American country. Venezuelan authorities raided the Caracas offices of Odebrecht, as prosecutors deepened a probe into the Brazilian construction firm that has admitted paying some $98 million in bribes to obtain government contracts in Venezuela. Amid the fall from grace of many members of the once powerful and rich ruling elite, it remains to be seen where justice starts and politics eventually end. Accusations are rife, however in some countries it takes place during election time. In Ecuador, where the lead opposition candidate is offering a sharp break with ten years of leftist rule, it is not hard to imagine a huge political influence of the continent-wide corruption scandal. Put into the mix Trumpian isolationism, Chinese and Russian bids for influence and the ongoing effects of a massive commodities downturn, the future of the Latin American political landscape might again become volatile.

Calls for Ethics Inquiry Regarding Senior White House Adviser’s Ivanka Trump Promotion

A government ethics advisory body stated last week that Senior White House adviser Kellyanne Conway should be investigated over her promotion of Ivanka Trump’s products. In a letter on 14 February, it advised the White House to investigate and possibly discipline Ms Conway.

The Office of Government Ethics (OGE) found reason to believe that Ms Conway had violated ethnics rules. The statement comes just five days after she urged people to purchase the president’s daughter’s range on Fox News. Her comments prompted complaints from both Democrats and Republicans, who have now been backed by the OGE, which is an independent body.

The inquiry is likely to add pressure to Donald Trump’s administration, in a week where national security adviser Michael Flynn was forced to step down over his contact with the Russian ambassador. So far, the White House has stood behind Ms Conway, who earlier this month urged people to buy after retailer Nordstrom dropped Ivanka’s clothing line, citing a lack of sales. Press secretary Sean Spicer did however disclose that she had been counselled following the incident, however the OGE letter noted that it had received no notice of disciplinary or any corrective action against Ms Conway. The letter notes there is strong reason to believe that Ms Conway has violated the Standards of Conduct and that disciplinary actions is warranted. It recommended that the investigation and any disciplinary action be taken by 28 February.

Ethics rules state officials cannot use their position for personal gain. The letter says that there is no doubt that Ms Conway appeared on television in her official capacity, as she sat in front of the White House seal and next to an American flag.

Republicans Call for Investigation of Flynn’s Contact with Russia

Last week, leading members of the United States Republican Party joined calls for a wide investigation into the former national security adviser’s links with Russia.

On 13 February, Michael Flynn resigned from his post over claims that he discussed US sanctions with Russia before President Donald Trump took office. On 14 February, a White House spokesman disclosed that President Trump knew weeks ago that there were problems with the Russia phone calls, however calls for an independent investigation have encountered a cold response from some senior Republicans.

The development came as the New York Times reported that phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Mr Trump’s presidential campaign, as well as other Trump associates, had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year before the election. However, officials spoken to by the newspaper have disclosed that they had not yet seen evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia on the hacking of the Democratic National Committee or to influence the election. As well as an FBI investigation into the matter, both the Senate and House intelligence committees are already examining Russian involvement in the election, though it currently remains unclear whether the latest claims will be included in their scope.

Mr Flynn stood down over allegations that he discussed US sanctions with a Russian envoy in December 2016, before Mr Trump took office. The conversations took place about the time that then-President Barack Obama was imposing retaliatory measures on Russia following reports that it attempted to sway the US election in Mr Trump’s favor. Mr Flynn could have broken the law, known as the Logan Act, by conducting US diplomacy as a private citizen before he was appointed as national security advisers.

Initially, Mr Flynn, who is a retired lieutenant-general, denied having discussed sanctions with Ambassador Sergei Kislyak, while Vice President Mike Pence publicly denied the allegations on his behalf. While the White House admitted that it had been warned about the contacts on 26 January, President Trump initially concluded that Mr Flynn had not broken any law. According to White House spokesman Sean Spicer, White House lawyers then conducted a review and questioned Mr Flynn before reaching the same conclusion as the president, however by that point the trust had gone. On 14 February, White House Counsellor Kellyanne Conway disclosed that in the end, it was misleading the vice-president that made the situation unsustainable. According to US media, Mr Flynn was also reportedly questioned by FBI agents in his first days as national security adviser.

In an interview conducted with the conservative website the Daily Caller on 13 February, and published on 14 February, Mr Flynn disclosed that he “crossed no lines” in his conversation with the ambassador, adding that he discussed the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats over alleged hacking ahead of of the lection, but “it wasn’t about sanctions.” He went on to say that he was concerned that the apparently classified information had been linked, adding “in some of these cases, you’re talking about stuff that’s taken off of a classified system nad given to a reporters…That’s a crime.”

On 14 February, US House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes told reporters that he wanted to examine the leaks, stating that the FBI should explain why Mr Flynn’s conversation had been recorded. The Senate’s second-ranking Republican, John Cornyn, and other Republican senators have also called for an investigation into Mr Trump’s connection with Russian officials. Republican John McCain, who is the Chairman of the senate Armed Services Committee, disclosed that Mr Flynn’s resignation was a “troubling indication of the dysfunction of the current national security apparatus,” which raised questions about Mr Trump’s intentions towards Russia.

While Mr Flynn has resigned, Democrat Adam Schiff, a member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, disclosed that his departure will not end questions about contacts between the president’s campaign and Russia. However there are various ways that these questions could be answered. Two Democratic members of the House of Representatives have demanded a classified briefing to Congress on Michael Flynn by the justice department and FBI. Several House Democrats had already called on Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz to launch an investigation into Mr Flynn’s ties to Russia.