MS Risk Blog

Revisión de los incidentes en la región (Semana del 5 abril de 2017)

Amenaza a la libertad de prensa en México. Decenas de periodistas se han estado manifestando a lo largo de las pasadas semanas por la inseguridad que sufren ejerciendo su profesión. El pasado marzo fue uno de los meses más sangrientos que se recuerdan, desde el año 2000 son ya 123 los periodistas asesinados. La situación ha forzado el cierre del periódico Norte de Ciudad de Juárez por la extrema violencia y persecución. La Sociedad Interamericana de Prensa ha pedido al Gobierno de México que haga un mayor esfuerzo en la protección de los periodistas, profesión clave para la democracia. México es actualmente considerado el país más peligroso del continente para ejercer la profesión periodística.

Graves altercados en Asunción, Paraguay, tras el intento del actual presidente Horacio Cartes de reformar la Constitución del país para poder ser reelegido en las elecciones de 2018. Las protestas llegaron hasta el mismo Congreso que fue saqueado y parcialmente quemado por los manifestantes. Las protestas terminaron con 211 detenidos y un muerto cuando la policía asaltó la sede del Partido Liberal. Sorprendentemente, el conservador Partido Colorado, ahora dividido entre fieles y opositores al presidente Cartes, cuenta con el apoyo del izquierdista Frente Guasú que, con la reforma de la Constitución, pretende volver a poner a su expresidente Fernando Lugo en el poder en las próximas elecciones, dado que lidera en los sondeos, tras su destitución en 2012. Mientras, el Partido Liberal acusa al presidente de un golpe de estado por la reforma de la Constitución, así como por el asalto a su sede nacional.

El mal tiempo en la región del Putumayo provocó en la madrugada del 1 de abril el desbordamiento de tres ríos a la altura de Mocoa, la capital del departamento. Las cifras ascienden a 290 fallecidos, más de 370 heridos y un número indeterminado de desaparecidos en una localidad de unos 45.000 habitantes. El Gobierno colombiano declaró el estado de calamidad y movilizó a 1.120 militares para las labores de salvamento, mientras se abren las vías de acceso a la ciudad para poner a salvo a la población.

Tensa situación post electoral en Ecuador tras la victoria de Lenin Moreno, declarado sucesor de Rafael Correa, en las elecciones a la presidencia del país. A pesar del aval de varias misiones de observación internacionales, entre ellas la de la Organización de Estados Americanos, el opositor Guillermo Lasso no ha aceptado los resultados y llama a sus seguidores a salir a las calles para exigir el recuento de los votos. Mientras, Luis Almagro, presidente de la OEA ha dado validez a los resultados y felicitado, junto a muchos otros jefes de estado, a Moreno por su victoria.

US President Trumps State Visit to the UK Delayed

Reports emerged this month that United States President Donald Trumps state visit to the United Kingdom may have been delayed in an attempt to allow dissent over the controversial trip to dissipate.

On 10 March, Buckingham Palace announced that the King of Spain will travel to Britain, with sources indicated that this points strongly towards an October visit by President Trump. In a short statement, Buckingham Palace disclosed that King Felipe VI, accompanied by Queen Letizia of Spain, has accepted an invitation from the Queen to pay a state visit to the United Kingdom from 6^th to 8^th June 2017. King Felipe postponed a state visit to Britain in March 2016 because of a political crisis, however there have since been reports indicating that President Trumps visit had been moved from June until the end of the year in the hopes that any protests would be lessened.

An online petition calling for President Trump not to make a state visit was signed by 1.8 million people. However despite the strong opposition, the Government has disclosed that the visit will go ahead. Prime Minister Theresa May announced that President Trump was being extended the honour of a state visit when she became the first international leader to visit him at the White House following his inauguration in January.

Explosion in St Petersburg Metro Station

Fourteen people were killed and a further fifty were wounded on Monday 3 April in a blast that occurred in a St Petersburg train carriage.

The explosion on Monday afternoon at 2:40 PM (1140 GMT) occurred when the train was in a tunnel deep underground, which amplified the force of the blast. The carriage door was blown off, with witnesses describing seeing injured passengers with bloodied and blackened bodies. State investigative authorities have disclosed that fragments of the body of the suspect had been found amongst the dead, indicating that he was a suicide bomber.

The National Anti-Terrorist Committee reported on Monday that an explosive device had been found at another station, hidden in a fire extinguisher, adding that it had been defused. It was unclear who had placed that device, and so far no arrests have been made.

Authorities disclosed on Tuesday 4 April that the main suspect behind the attack is a Russian citizen, originally from mainly Muslim Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz GKNP security service has identified the suspect as Azbarzhon Jalilov, born in the city of Osh in 1995. The security service however has provided no further detail about the suspect. Citing law enforcement officials, Russian media have reported that the perpetrator had radical Islamist links, which has raised the possibility that the attack could have been inspired by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, which has not struck a major city in Russia before. So far however there has been no official confirmation or claim of responsibility.

Russia has been on alert against attacks in reprisal for its military intervention in Syria, where Moscow’ forces have been supporting troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad against Western-backed armed group s as well as IS.   The militant group is now under attack by all sides in Syria’s multi-faceted war and it has repeatedly threatened revenge and has ben linked to recent bombings elsewhere in Europe. Monday’s attack in Russia has raised security fears beyond Russian frontiers, with France, which has itself suffered a series of terrorist attacks, announcing additional security measures in Paris.

Poll: Almost Half of Canadians Want Illegal Border Crossers to be Deported

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released late last month, nearly half of Canadians want to deport people who are illegally crossing into Canada from the United States. Furthermore, a similar number disapprove of how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is handling the influx.

In recent months, the increasing flow of hundreds of asylum-seekers of African and Middle Eastern origin from the United States has become a contentious issue in Canada. The new poll states that a significant minority, four out of ten respondents, indicated that the border crossers could make the country less safe, underlining the potential political risk for Trudeaus Liberal government.

It further indicates that Canadians appear to be just as concerned about illegal immigration as their American neighbours, with the poll stating that some 48 percent indicated that they supported increasing the deportation of people living in Canada illegally. When asked specifically about the recent border crossings, the same number 48 percent, indicated that Canada should Send these migrants back to the US, while 36 percent indicated that Canada should accept these migrants. In the poll, support for deportations was strongest amongst men, adults lacking a college degree, people who are older and those with higher levels of income. According to the poll, forty-six percent of Canadians feel that the influx would have no effect on safety, while 41 percent indicated that it would make the country less safe. Janet Dench, executive director for Canadian Council for Refugees notes that refugees are much more welcomed when we have gone and selected them ourselves as a country, as opposed to refuges who have chosen us.

Of those polled, 46 percent disagreed with how the prime minister was handling the situation, with 37 percent agreeing and 17 percent indicating that they di not know. In January, a separate Ipsos poll found that 59 percent of Canadians approved of Prime Minister Trudeau while 41 percent disapproved.

Illegal migrants interviewed by Reuters in Canada disclosed that they had been living legally in the United States and had applies for asylum there however they fled over fears of being enmeshed in the Trump administrations immigration crackdown.

While for decades, there has been broad bipartisan support for high levels of legal immigration in Canada, Prime Minister Trudeau has come under pressure over the flow of illegal migrants. Every time he appears in Parliament, Mr Trudeau is questioned about the issue by opponents on the left, who want more asylum seekers to be allowed in, and critics on the right who say that the migrants pose a potential security risk. Kellie Leitch, a prominent contender to be the leader of the official opposition right-leaning Conservative Party, disclosed that the opinion poll results reinforced her belief that Canadians did not want Ottawa to accept the asylum-seekers. Mr Trudeau however faces no immediate threat, as the next elections are not due to take place until 2019.

Officials however have already warned that the number of illegal migrants crossing the border could increase as the weather improves. Authorities have also dismissed the idea that they being lax, with Dan Brien, a spokesman for Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale, stating that trying to slip across the border is not a free ticket to Canada, noting that all the asylum-seekers are immediately arrested. When asked about the latest poll, Brien disclosed if they are found to be inadmissible without a valid claim, deportation procedures are begun, adding that those who cannot be identified, are a flight risk or pose a public danger can be detained.

A separate Ipsos poll in Canada has indicated that 23 percent of Canadians listed immigration control as being amongst the top national issues in March, up from 17 percent in December 2016. It ranks behind healthcare, taxes, unemployment and poverty, which are all top concerns.

Ottawa has set an immigration target of 300,000 for 2017 effectively just under 1 percent of the population. This is the same level as 2016. It reduced the 2017 target for resettled refugees to 25,000 from 44,8000 in 2016, a year when it welcomed 25,000 Syrian refugees.

French Presidential Election: Defense Minister Announces Support for Macron

On Friday 24 March, Socialist French Defense Minster Jean-Yves Le Drian announced his support for centrist Emmanuel Macron instead of his own partys presidential candidate. The Defense Minister disclosed that the move wa necessary because victory for far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the upcoming election would be a danger to France. He is the most senior government member to endorse Mr Macron so far.

Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon, who won the primary of left-wing parties in January, has disclosed that Mr Le Drians decision did not respect voters of the left. The move comes after two junior ministers, Barbara Pompili from the Green Party and Thierry Braillard from the Radical Left party, also disclosed that they would support Mr Macron. Mr Hamon has also failed to win the backing of former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, whom he defeated in the January primary.

Meanwhile the latest poll has indicated that Mr Macron and Ms Le Pen are neck and neck in the first round, which is due to take place on 23 April. The latest polls suggest that Mr Macron, who is a former economy minister under President Francois Hollande who is seeking the presidency as an independent, would win 26% of the vote in the first round. He is just in front of Ms Le Pen, who leads the National Front (FN), on 25 %. In recent polls, the National Front leader had been projected to win the first round only to lose the run-off on 7 May to Mr Macron. Scandal-hit centre-right Republicans candidate Francois Fillon is in third place, with 17%.