MS Risk Blog

UK follows in US Footsteps in Electronic Device Ban

Shortly after the United States announced a ban on electronic devices on board flights from certain airports flying into the US, the UK Government has announced a ban on large electronic devices being carried in cabin luggage on aircraft flying into the UK from six countries.

UK officials have disclosed that the ban, which comes into effect at the end of March, affects direct inbound flights from Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia. UK airlines operating direct flights that will be affected are British airways, easyJet, Jet2.com, Monarch, Thomas Cook and Thomson, while overseas airlines impacted are Turkish Airlines, Pegasus Airways, Atlas-Global Airlines, Middle East Airlines, EgyptAir, Royal Jordanian, Tunis Air and Saudi. The affected airlines have been told about the order, with Number 10 noting that it may take a few days in order to fully implement the security measure.

The devices covered by the ban include laptops, tablets, which are larger than a typical smartphone, measuring 16 cm x 9.3 cm x 1.5 cm. These will now have to be checked into the planes hold. An Apple iPhone 7 Plus, which is the firms largest phone, will not be affected by the ban. The ban was ordered by Prime Minister Theresa May on 21 March and follows a number of meetings on aviation security.

The move comes after the US this month imposed its own restrictions on flights originating in Cairo, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Kuwait, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Doha and Istanbul. UK security sources however have disclosed that the move is not a reaction to a specific intelligence threat, rather a response to the ongoing general threat to aviation.

Germany meanwhile announced on 22 March that it has no plans to introduce restrictions on carry-on electronic devices on planes coming from some Muslim-majority countries in the Middle East and North Africa. A spokesman for the German Interior Ministry disclosed that the government had been informed about the US measures, noting that German airports are not affected by the measures. Comparable rules are not planned in Germany at the moment. Sources however have disclosed that other countries are expected to impose similar bans.

The move by the US and the UK comes as fears are increasing over jet bombs being hidden in electronic devices. US intelligence officials believe that terrorists are perfecting explosive devices small enough so that they can fit inside consumer electronics in an attempt to bring down commercial airliners. This concern is behind the decision to ban larger electronic devices in cabins on direct US-bound flights from a number of destinations in the Middle East and in North Africa. US media has quoted officials confirming the move as being linked to a threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and has been prompted by recent intelligence. The group boasts one of the worlds most feared bomb makers, Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri. Authorities are also concerned about similar plots to an incident that occurred in Somalia in February 2016, when a bomb hidden in a laptop blew open the side of a plane but failed to bring it down. Only the bomber was killed in that incident.

Brexit: Article 50 to be Triggered on 29 March

Officials announced on Monday, 20 March that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is to officially notify the European Union (EU) on 29 march that the UK is leaving the bloc.

Downing Street announced last week that the prime minister would write a letter to the European Council, adding that it hoped negotiations on the terms of exit and future relations could begin as quickly as possible. A No 10 spokesman disclosed that the UKs Ambassador to the EU, Sir Time Barrow, had informed the European Council, which is headed by President Donald Tusk, earlier on Monday of the date that Article 50 would be triggered. In response to the news, Mr Tusk tweeted within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50, I will present the draft Brexit guidelines to the EU 27 Member states. This will set out Britains demands for talks.

Mr Tusk has previously sated that he expects to call an extraordinary summit of the 27 other members within four to six weeks, in order to draw up a mandate for the European Commissions chief negotiator, Michel Barnier. It is likely that a summit will not be held until early May. Preparations may be slowed by holidays around Easter on 16 April and on 1 May. Brussels also wants to avoid clashing with the two-round French presidential election on 23 April and 7 May. Officials have indicated that they would prefer to hold the summit before French President Francois Hollande steps down around mid-May.

Under the Article 50 process, talks on the terms of exit and future relations are not allowed until the UK formally tells the EU that it is leaving. If all goes according to the two-year negotiations allowed for in the official timetable, Brexit should happen in March 2019. EU leaders have said that they want to conclude the talks within eighteen months in order to allow the terms of the UKs exit to be ratified by the UK Parliament and the European Parliament, as well as approved by the necessary majority of EU states.

Mrs May has disclosed that MPs and peers will have a vote on the deal that she negotiates, noting however that the UK will leave anyway even if Parliament rejects it. The government has said that it expects to secure a positive outcome, warning however that there is a chance of there being no formal agreement.

Meanwhile Mrs Mays spokesman also rejected reports that an early election may be held, stating its not going to happen.

Terror Attack In London

Last week, London was rocked by what authorities are calling a terrorist attack, after a man in a vehicle ploughed into pedestrians near Parliament in the central part of the British capital.

The attack, which occurred during the afternoon hours on Wednesday 22 March resulted in four deaths after the man drove his car along a pavement on Westminster Bridge, knocking down pedestrians, creating panic and leaving at least fifty people injured. After crashing his car into railings, the attacker ran towards Parliament where he stabbed a police officer to death. Armed police then shot the attacker. The attack lasted 82 seconds.

In the days that have followed, information emerged regarding the attacker. On Thursday 23 March, Prime Minister Theresa May revealed that the Westminster attacker was a British-born man who was known to the police and intelligence services. The attacker has been named as Khalid Masood. Speaking to MPs on Thursday, she disclosed that the authorities had investigated some years ago but was not part of the current intelligence picture.

Overnight, police officials carried out several raids across the country, which resulted in eight arrests in London and Birmingham. In total, eleven people have been arrested and nine people in total have been released without charge. Scotland Yard has since reported that Masood acted alone and that there is no information to suggest that further attacks are planned. The Metropolitan Police have disclosed that Masoon, 52, had previous criminal convictions but none for terrorism. He had used a number of aliases. At birth, he was registered in Dartford, Kent, as Adrian Elms, but later took his stepfathers name become Adrian Ajao in childhood. In the early 2000s, he was convicted of causing grievous bodily harm after slashing a man across the face with a knife in a pub.

The so-called Islamic State (IS) group has disclosed that it was behind the attack, stating that the attacker had been a soldier of the Islamic State.

From bad to worse: Fleeing the Northern Triangle for Mexico

The contemporary security situation in Mexico is affected by various external factors. According to the UNHCRs international protection chief, the stream of refugees from the Northern Triangle of Central America constitutes one of these factors. The UN official, Volker Trk, described the situation as approaching crisis levels. For decades, Mexico has served as a place of transit for Central American migrants heading north. But in the last few years the reality has changed with an increasing number of people from the so-called Northern Triangle countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, actually seeking asylum in Mexico. The inflow is increased even more due to the recent crackdown by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE) on illegal immigrants and the resulting increase in deportations back down south to the Northern Triangle and Mexico. Last year, Mexico received almost 9,000 new asylum applications, a 156 per cent increase in comparison to 2015. Since January 2015, the number of asylum applications filed has increased by more than eight per cent per month. Based on this trend, the UN Refugee Agency projects at least 20,000 additional asylum claims in Mexico in 2017. However, for those fleeing from extortion, forced recruitment and human rights abuses perpetrated by transnational organized crime groups and local criminal gangs, Mexico is not necessarily the Promised Land as violence in Americas southern neighbor is not particularly letting up. After years of falling homicide levels, Mexico is suffering a deteriorating security situation not seen since former president Felipe Calderon announced a war on drug gangs in 2007. Veracruz, home to rival cartels such as the Zetas and the Jalisco New Generation saw 1,258 registered homicides last year alone. This month, authorities confirmed the discovery of more than 250 bodies in what appears to be a drug cartel mass burial ground on the outskirts of the city of Veracruz. The clandestine graves are of such an industrial scale that backhoes or bulldozers were likely used in creating them and contain so many bodies that officials arent digging in some places because they dont have space for the remains. Another site south of the city of Veracruz where there were apparently also clandestine graves, is not being explored yet, because the morgues cant handle all the bodies. The industrial nature of the mass graves make it unlikely that authorities did not know about them. Meanwhile, the former governor of Veracruz, Javier Duarte is being sought over allegations he was involved in organized crime and money laundering. Elsewhere in Mexico, hidden graves have been found containing hundreds of bodies. In January, 56 bodies were found in a grave in the northern state of Nuevo Leon, where drug cartels vie for control of the routes toward the US. So, while the refugees are leaving a terrible situation behind, coming to Mexico might mean they are jumping out of the frying pan into the fire.

Syrian War: 465,000 Killed in Six Years of Fighting

This month, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is a British-based war monitor, reported that so far about 465,000 people have been killed and missing in Syrias ongoing civil war.

The war began six years ago on 15 March, with protests against President Bashar al-Assads government. Since then, it has dragged in global and regional powers, allowed the so-called Islamic State (IS) group to gain hold of huge tracts of territory and has caused the biggest refugee crisis since the Second World War.

The Observatory has reported that it had documented the deaths of more than 321,000 people since the beginning of the war, adding that more than 145,000 people have been reported as missing. The Observatory, which has used a network of contacts across the country in order to maintain a count of causalities since near the beginning of the conflict, states that amongst those killed are more than 96,000 civilians, adding that government forces and their allies killed more than 83,500 civilians, including more than 27,500 in air strikes and 14,600 under torture in prison. Rebel shelling killed more than 7,000 civilians. IS has killed more than 3,700 civilians, while air strikes by the US-led coalition have killed 920 civilians. Turkey, which is backing rebels in the northern region of the country, has killed more than 500 civilians. The Syrian government and Russia both deny targeting civilians or using torture or extrajudicial killings. Most rebel groups and Turkey also deny targeting civilians while the US led-coalition states that it tries hard to avoid civilian causalities and always investigates reports that it has done so.