MS Risk Blog

Poland Considering Demanding Germany Pay WWII Reparations

Poland is in the process of considering whether to ask for reparations from Germany for damage caused during the Second World War.

According to an MP with the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, an analysis of whether the Eastern European country can make a claim is being prepared by the research office at the country’s parliament. Arkadiush Mularczyk, the politicians who requested the report, disclosed that he expects it to be ready by 11 August.

News of the move comes after the leader of the Law and Justice party disclosed last week that conversations were being held about the amount Germany could owe. Speaking to a radio station, Jaroslaw Kaczynski disclosed, “we are talking here about huge sums, and also about the fact that Germany for many years refused to take responsibility for World War II.”

On 1 August, Poland marked the anniversary of the start of 1944’s Warsaw Uprising, which led to the deaths of 200,000 Poles and the near destruction of the capital city. Nearly six million Polish citizens are estimated to have died during the conflict, with a huge amount of damage being caused across the country. Many churches and other cultural treasures were destroyed as entire cities were laid to waste.

US Official: 2000 IS Fighters Remain in Raqqa

A senior United States official reported this month that some 2,000 Islamic State (IS) militants remain in the Syrian city of Raqqa, amidst an offensive to recapture the group’s stronghold. IS seized control of Raqqa in 2014, proclaiming it the capital of a “caliphate.”

According to Brett McGurk, special envoy for the coalition against IS, US-backed forces have seized about 45% of Raqq since the operation started in June, adding that the group is now fighting for its own survival and that the militants are likely to die in the city.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have been gradually advancing on the city since November, and launched an offensive to take it on 6 June. While it currently remains unclear how many civilians are still in the city, the United Nations has estimate that the figure is between 20,000 and 50,000.

The loss of Raqqa would be another major setback for IS after the jihadist group was driven from its main Iraqi bastion of Mosul in July. According to Mr McGurk, the militants have also lost 78% of the territory they held in Iraq and 58% of what they had in Syria, adding, “today in Raqqa, ISIS (IS) is fighting for every last block…and fighting for their own survival…They most likely will die in Raqqa.’

More than 300,000 people have lost their lives in six years of conflict in Syria, which began with protests against President Bashar al-Assad before escalating into a full-scale civil war. Eleven million people have been displaced by the fighting.

Aid Groups Divided Over Italy’s New Migrant Rescue Rules

According to the Italian Interior Ministry, five aid groups that operate migrant rescue vessels in the Mediterranean Sea have refused to sign up to the Italian government’s code of conduct, with three other aid groups backing the new rules.

The Italian coastguard has reported that charity boats have become increasingly important in rescue operations, picking up more than a third of all migrants brought ashore so far this year against less than one percent in 2014. Italy however is now becoming increasingly concerned that the groups are facilitating people smuggling from North Africa and are encouraging migrants to make the perilous passage to Europe. It has therefore proposed a code containing around dozen points for the charities, with the ministry disclosing that those who refused to sign the document had put themselves “outside the organized system of sea rescues, with all the concrete consequences that can have.” This statement comes after Italy last month threatened to shut its ports to NGOS that did not sign up. An Interior Ministry source however has since stated that in reality those groups would face more checks from Italian authorities.

One of the aid groups that has refused to sign the code is Doctors Without Borders (MSF). While it has taken part in many of the rescues of some 95,000 migrants brought to Italy this year, and attended a meeting at the Interior Ministry, MSF objected most strongly to a requirement that aid boats must take migrants to a safe port themselves, rather than transferring people to other vessels, which effectively allows smaller boats to stay in the area for further rescues. In a letter to Interior Minister Marco Minniti, MSF Italy’s director Gabriele Eminente disclosed “our vessels are often overwhelmed by the high number of (migrant) boats…and life and death at sea is a question of minutes.” He continued that “the code of conduct puts at risk this fragile equation of collaboration between different boats,” adding that MSF still wanted to work with the ministry to improve sea rescues. Germany’s Sea-Watch, Sea-Eye and Jugend Rettet as well as France’s SOS Mediterranee have abstained. MSF, SOS Mediterranee and Jugend Rettet have also called for clarity on the rules and took issue with a clause in the code, which would oblige groups to accept police officers on board. Jugend Rettet coordinator Titus Mokenbur disclosed, “for us the most controversial point…was the commitment to help the Italian police with their investigations and possible take armed police officers on board,” adding “this is antithetical to the humanitarian principles of neutrality that we adhere to, and we cannot be seen as being part of the conflict.”

Save the Children has given its backing to the code, stating that it already complied with most of the rules and would monitor closely to be sure that applying them did not obstruct their work. After the meeting, Save the Children Italy director Valerio Neri disclosed, “we would not have signed if even one single point would have compromised our effectiveness. This is not the case, not one single point of the code will hinder our activities.” Malta-based Migrant Offshore Aid Station (MOAS) and Spanish group Proactiva Open Arms have also agreed to the conditions.

EU Top Negotiator Warns of Possible Delay in Brexit Talks

Late last month, the European Union’s (EU) top negotiator warned that talks between Britain and the EU on their future relationship are now less likely to begin in October, with EU officials disclosing that this is due to a lack of progress on Brexit divorce issues so far.

The EU’s top Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier briefed ambassadors from the 27 countries that will remain in the EU after Britain leaves in March 2019 on the outcome of the July round of the monthly divorce talks with London. According to one EU official involved in the Brexit talks, “he said the likelihood of starting the future relationship talks in October appeared to be decreasing.”

Barnier had initially hoped that sufficient progress on the key divorce issues, which includes a financial settlement, citizens rights and a solution for a non-physical border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, could be made by October. This would effectively allow EU leaders to give their consent to begin talks with London on the main aspects of the relationship after Brexit – a discussion that Britain is keen to begin as soon as possible to provide more clarity to businesses. However with no progress on the financial settlement, with the exception of Britain’s general admission that it would owe the EU an unspecified amount, and little to no real progress on other issues, the odds of a future trade relationship discussion beginning in two months are rapidly declining.

EU officials have noted that progress was difficult not because Britain had unacceptable demands, but that it had no position at all on many issues. According to a second EU official, “Barnier expressed concerns that sufficient progress in October looked difficult now. Mainly because Britain has no position on finances, but also because they don’t have positions on other issues as well,” adding “the more they drag on, the less time is left for second phase and special relationship they want.”

The EU has roughly estimated that Britain may owe it around 60 billion euros after it leaves in various legal commitments that London has made as a member to the bloc. However talks are to focus on the methodology of calculation rather than the sum itself. According to a third EU diplomat, “there has still been no kick-off on money, Britain still refuses to accept anything – either the methodology, or the sum. This blocs everything else, there wont be any real progress over the next two months, clearly that wont create grounds for reopening phase two on trade,” adding “on citizens’ acquired rights, it’s a mixed picture. We have a list of things we agree on, disagree on and are some way in between. But that at least allows us to negotiate.” Diplomats have also disclosed that in regards to Ireland, talks have not moved beyond restating positions that have already been presented in public, with a fourth official disclosing that “they have actually not discussed the Irish border in any detail, there were no technical talks at all.”

The next round of talks has been scheduled for late August.

Spain beset again by Jihadi terrorism

Spain suffered last Thursday 17 August the largest terrorist attack since 11-M, which left 192 dead and 2,057 injured. A double attack shook the cities of Barcelona and Cambrils (Tarragona).

The first attack took place at 16:50 on La Rambla, Barcelona’s most tourist and commercial street. A van hurled itself against the pedestrians and ran for 500 meters running over in a zigzag. The driver and author of the attack, Younes Abouyaaqoub, fled through La Boqueria market, whose multiple entrances and exits served him to sneak out and remain on the run until Monday, when he was discovered thanks to citizen collaboration in an area of vineyards in Subirats, where he was shot down by the police after pouncing on them with a false explosive vest.

The second attack occurred at one in the morning in the town of Cambrils, Tarragona. A car with five people escaped a police control, running over six civilians and wounding a policeman; the occupants then left the vehicle to continue their slaughter using knives, an axe and wearing fake explosive vests, but four of them were instantly shot down by the police, while the fifth ran part of the boardwalk stabbing several passers-by before being dejected.

The attacks have resulted in the death of 15 people and more than a hundred wounded. Among the dead are six Spanish citizens, three Italians, two Portuguese, one American, one Belgian, one Canadian and one Australian. Among the wounded are citizens of 34 nationalities from different parts of the globe. The events have been linked to an explosion that occurred in the early hours of Wednesday to Thursday in the town of Alcanar, Tarragona, in which a house was destroyed and later it was discovered that the cause was the accidental explosion of 120 gas bottles the terrorists were going to use as an explosive to attack the basilica of the Sagrada Familia in Barcelona.

The police investigation determined that the attacks were linked to each other and were planned by a terrorist cell composed of 12 people, which has been dismantled this week. Four terrorists are in detention, five died in Cambrils, the author of the Barcelona attack died in Subirats, and two bodies were found among the debris of the Alcanar house.

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for both attacks on the same day, and the investigation points to the imam of the Ripoll mosque, Abdelbaki Es Satty, who died in Alcanar, as the ideologue of the attacks and the culprit of radicalizing the other members of the cell, all young people between 17 and 34 years. Es Satty had already gone through prison for drug trafficking and had friends involved in the 11-M bombings in Madrid. The imam gathered the youths he considered most prone to radicalization outside the mosque, and shortly before the bombings disappeared altogether.

With the death of Younes Abouyaaqoub and the dismantling of the terrorist cell, the most urgent tasks of the anti-terrorist unit are put to an end, but the police keep the investigation open, as there are many questions surrounding the case. Among them, the reason why Abouyaaqoub went to the town of Subirats, where he was seen whistling near a house in which formerly lived a family of Moroccan origin; a trip to Paris carried out by four members of the cell five days before the attacks, or the reason why no one noticed that they were occupying the house of Alcanar, seized by a bank, and that served as the place to prepare the attacks.

Condolences to the largest terrorist attack in Spain since 11-M came from all over the world, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Theresa May, Angela Merkel, Enrique Peña Nieto, Emmanuel Macron, Pope Francis, Justin Trudeau, Vladimir Putin, the King of Morocco, Mohamed VI, and many others sent their condolences to the victims of the attacks, which follow the trail of other attacks in other European cities such as Berlin, London, Nice, Paris or Stockholm, and whose victims belong to nationalities from all over the world, which has made Barcelona the world capital against terrorism.