MS Risk Blog

Rwanda Election: Kagame Wins Third Term in Office

Final results released on Saturday 5 August indicated that incumbent leader Paul Kagame swept to a landslide victory in Rwanda’s presidential election, securing a third term in office and extending his seventeen years in power.

On Saturday, the National Electoral Commission announced that Kagame had secured 98.63 percent of Friday’s vote.   The board further disclosed that turnout topped 96.42 percent in the country of twelve million, in an election that fielded only a single opposition candidate, Frank Habineza, and an independent.

Addressing his supporters early on Saturday, President Kagame stated that he would work to sustain economic growth. In a speech broadcast live on television, he stated “this is another seven years to take care of issues that affect Rwandans and ensure that we become real Rwandans who are (economically) developing.” He went on to say, “what I saw during campaigns is that the decision to continue to lead you drew criticism mainly by foreigners but this proves that the referendum was for real purpose.” President Kagame won the last election in 2010 with 93 percent of the vote and had said during this campaign for a further seven-year term that he again expected an outright victory. Habienza, who won 0.47 percent of the vote, had promised to set up a tribunal to retry dissidents whose convictions by Rwandan courts have been criticized as politically motivate. After the vote, he stated that some of his party’s observers were obstructed in carrying out their work. Habineza’s accusations however did not amount to foul play.

Hours after the election results were announced, the United States disclosed that it was “disturbed by irregularities obsrved during voting” in the election. A US State Department statement reiterated “long-standing concerns over the integrity of the vote-tabulation process.” The US statement further disclosed that it remains “concerned by the lack of transparency in determining the eligibility of prospective candidates,” and it commended Rwanda’s media for reporting on complaints of harassment of some opposition candidates.

While President Kagame has won international praise for presiding over a peaceful and rapid economic recovery in Rwanda since the 1994 genocide, when an estimated 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed, he has also faced mounting criticism for what human rights groups say are widespread abuses, a muzzling of independent media, and suppression of political opposition. Under his rule, some dissidents were killed after fleeing abroad, in cases that remain unsolved, with the government denying any involvement.

A constitutional amendment in 2015 effectively allows President Kagame to remain in power until 2034 if he pursues it. The US, which is a key Rwanda ally, opposed the change to the constitution.

North Korea Announces Possible Plan to Strike Guam After Trump Administration Threat

Tensions this week between North Korea and the United States significantly increased in the wake of US-backed sanctions being passed by the United Nations Security Council and after US President Donald Trump told Pyongyang that any threat to the US would be met with “fire and fury.”

Just hours after President Trump made the statement, Pyongyang’s news agency announced that a plan to hit the US territory of Guam could be enforced at “any moment” once Kim Jong Un makes a decision. A spokesman for the Korean People’s Army stated that the strike plan would be “put into practice in a multi-current and consecutive way any moment” once Kim Jong Un makes a decision, adding that “enveloping fire” would be used to contain major US military bases on the island territory in the western Pacific Ocean – including the Anderson Air Force Base. KCNA, which is Pyongyang’s state-run news agency, also carried a statement from a different military official, which stated that North Korea may carry out a pre-emptive operation if the US shows signs of provocation.

Despite the threat of a possible attack, Guam’s governor, Eddie Calvo, has sated that there was no change in the territory’s threat level and has reassured locals that several layers of defense are strategically placed to protect it. He added that Guam is “not just a military installation,” but American soil with American citizens.

Concerns over North Korea’s intentions to strike the US appeared to increase on Tuesday 8 August, when the Washington Post reported that North Korea has successfully developed a miniaturised nuclear warhead that can fit inside one of its intercontinental ballistic missiles. The newspaper said that claim was contained in a confidential assessment by America’s Defense Intelligence Agency.

On Monday 7 August, North Korea responded angrily after the UN imposed tough new sanctions on the isolated state following the test-firing of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Pyongyang stated that the sanctions were caused by a “heinous US plot to isolate and stifle” the country. North Korea officials also threatened to make America “pay the price for its crime…thousands of times.”

Where is Guam and Why is North Korea Threatening it?

Guam is a 210 sq mile sovereign US territory located in the western Pacific Ocean and used by the US as a strategic military base. The island is incredibly remote, with the nearest significant population being in the Federated States of Micronesia, about 570 miles away. Beyond that, Papua New Guinea is 1,400 miles away; the Philippines are 1,600 miles from its shores; and Japan is 1,623 miles. Approximately 40% of Guam’s population of 162,000 is made up of indigenous Chamorro people, while another 25% are Filipino. Almost a third of its land is controlled by the US military, with about 6,000 American troops based there. Its location, which is in range of North Korean medium- and long-range missiles, and military significance to the US therefore makes it a logical target for Pyongyang.

Guam has a limited self-government, with a popularly elected governor, small legislature, and non-voting delegate in the US House of Representatives. Residents do not pay US income taxes or vote in the US presidential election but its natives are US citizens by birth. The US keeps a naval base and coastguard station in the south and an air force base in the north. Protecting the island is the US Army’s Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, which is used to shot down ballistic missiles.

As recently as 7 August, two US air force B-1B bombers flew from Guam to join their counterparts from South Korea and Japan for a mission over the Korean peninsula, about 2,100 miles away, in which the air forces practised various manoeuvres. In another show of force, the US last month twice flew a pair of supersonic bombers that took off from Guam over the Korean peninsula after two North Korean tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea

On 5 August, the United Nations Security Council unanimously imposed new sanctions on North Korea that could slash by a third the country’s US $3 billion annual export revenue. The move comes over North Korea’s two intercontinental ballistic missile tests, which were carried out last month.

The US-drafted resolution bans North Korean exports of coal, iron, iron ore, lead, lead ore and seafood. It also prohibits countries from increasing the current numbers of North Korean labourers working abroad, bans new joint ventures with North Korea and any new investment in current joint ventures. Speaking to the Council, US Ambassador to the United States Nikki Haley disclosed, “we should not fool ourselves into thinking we have solved the problem. Not even close. The North Korean threat has not left us, it is rapidly growing more dangerous,” adding “further action is required. The United States is taking and will continue to take prudent defensive measures to protect ourselves and our allies.” She further noted that Washington would continue annual joint military exercises with South Korea.

North Korea has denounced the sanctions. According to the North’s official news agency, the sanctions infringed on its sovereignty and vowed to take “righteous action.” The government statement reported by KCNA disclosed that Pyongyang would never place its nuclear programme on the negotiating table as long as the US maintained a hostile policy against the North.

North Korea has accused the US and South Korea of escalating tensions by conducting military drills. China and Russia have also slammed US deployment of the THAAD anti-missile defense system in South Korea, with China’s UN Ambassador Liu Jieyi calling for a halt to the deployment and for any equipment in place to be dismantled. Liu further urged North Korea to “cease taking actions that might further escalate tensions.”

Meanwhile on Monday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his US counterpart, President Donald Trump, agreed to apply maximum pressure and sanctions on North Korea in a telephone call, while China expressed hope that North and South Korea could resume contact soon.

While the UN Security Council has been divided on how to deal with other international crises, such as Syria, the 15-member body has remained relatively united on North Korea. However it must be noted that negotiating new measures typically takes months, not weeks. North Korea has been under UN sanctions since 2006 over its ballistic missile and nuclear programmes. The new measures came in response to five nuclear weapons tests and four long-range missile launches.

South African Hostage Freed After Six Years in Captivity

Reports emerged this month that a South African hostage, who was held by al-Qaeda in Mali since 2011, has been released.

Stephen McGowan was kidnapped from a hotel in Timbuktu along with two other foreign nationals. He last appeared in a video in December 2015, along with another hostage, Swedish national Johan Gustafsson, who was freed in June. On Thursday 3 August, authorities confirmed that he was released after efforts by the two countries’ governments and NGO Gift of the Givers. Sources have indicated that he was freed on 29 July and is now home with his family. While it remains unclear why news of the release was delayed, it is believed that this was a security precaution. The South African government has disclosed that no ransom was paid for Mr McGowan’s release.

Tensions on the Rise as Kenyans Set to Vote Tomorrow

A calm before the storm appears to have settled across Kenya, as the election campaign has finally ended ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

Ten years ago post-election ethnic violence erupted in the country, and now no one in Kenya wants to see this repeated. However with opinion polls predicting a very close race between incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga, there are growing fears that there could a new wave of violence could erupt. What will occur in Kenya over the coming days will be less about who wins the election and more about how those who have lost take their defeat.

The key to this will be the success of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) computerised voting system process being considered free and fair. In theory, the voting system in Kenya is good as:

• Electronic identity verification should not allow people to vote more than once or the many dead people on the roll to vote at all;
• Results will be announced at the constituency level;
• Published counts will be sent digitally to Nairobi to be added up;
• Election observers will be at thousands of polling stations.

However if it fails, which was the case in 2013, the votes will be counted manually, and verifying the voters’ roll will be a lot harder and may raise suspicions. Furthermore, in a country where vote-rigging has been alleged in the past, it is highly likely that the loser of the election will challenge the results, as was the case in 2013.   During the last election, Raila Odinga turned the courts claiming electoral fraud. He however ended up losing his his case. This time, which is his fourth and probably last attempt to become president, he may turn to the streets if he considers that the election has been stolen, though in recent weeks he has called for calm amongst his supporters.

The IEBC has insisted that the system will work and it has successfully carried out a public “dry run” in order to prove it. However a quarter of polling stations are apparently outside of cellular data range. Furthermore, on 4 August, armed men raided a Nairobi building where the opposition is running its own parallel count and took computers. Later two foreign data analysts working for the opposition were expelled from Kenya. More than 180,000 agents from various organs of state security are also believed to have been deployed for the election. While this could be considered as a prudent security measure, it could also raise fears of polling station intimidation. The worst-case scenario is an extremely close result, a failed electronic voting system and a candidate who is not prepared to concede defeat.

Tensions have already been on the rise in the weeks leading up to the vote. The murder of a key figure a week before the election has really put the country on edge. Chris Msando, the IEBC head of technology, was in charge of the electronic system and was the man who appeared on television to reassure the public it would work and could not be hacked. When it tortured, strangled body was found dumped in a forest, it raised suspicions that somebody was planning to interfere with the election.

If no one wins more than 50% of the vote, then he election will go to a second round, however without a popular third candidate, this seems unlikely. Whatever does happen, the race has pitted two men against each other: Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Kenya’s first president, against Raila Odinga, the son of its first vice-president and a man who also spent much of his political career in opposition. Mr Kenyatta, the 55-year-old incumbent, wants a second and final term in office for his Jubilee Party after narrowly winning the last election in 2013, despite having International Criminal Court (ICC) charges of inciting violence hanging over him. Mr Kenyatta, an ethnic Kikuyu, and his former rival William Ruto, a Kalenjin, were accused of inciting violence between the two communities. The charges related to the 2007 post-election violence, which killed around 1,200 people and drove hundreds of thousands from their homes. While the ICC case recently collapsed due to lack of evidence and after key witnesses died or disappeared, old ethnic wounds, which were reopened, have still not completely healed.