MS Risk Blog

US To Respond by 1 September To Russia’s Expulsion of Diplomats

While the Trump administration has not yet decided how it will respond to Russia’s move to expel hundreds of American diplomats, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson disclosed last month that the administration is planning to deliver a response to Moscow by 1 September

Mr Tillerson made the announcement just a day after sitting down in the Philippines with Russia’s top diplomat. During the meeting, Mr Tillerson disclosed that he had asked “clarifying questions” about the Kremlin’s retaliation, which was announced last month following new sanctions that were based by US Congress and signed by US President Donald Trump. Fearing that President Trump might move inappropriately to ease sanctions on Russia, Congress in July passed new legislation that both added more sanctions and made it harder for the president to lift them. While both President Trump and Mr Tillerson opposed the legislation, President Trump begrudgingly singed the bill as he was faced with a likely veto override. Moscow’s response to the sanctions was to announce that it would force the US to cut its embassy and consulate staff in Russia by 755 people. That move stoked confusion in Washington, given that the US is believed to have far fewer than 755 American employees in Russia. The Trump administration has now struggled to determine how the move will affect the US diplomatic presence in Russia, as well as the broader implications for the troubled relationship between the two states.

Despite the Russia’s decision, which effectively seems to have plunged the two countries even further into acrimony, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emerged from the meeting declaring a readiness for more engagement with the US on topics including North Korea, Syria and Ukraine, amongst other issues. This sentiment was further echoed by Mr Tillerson, who disclosed that the two countries had critical national security issues to discuss despite deep disagreements on some matters. Mr Tillerson further disclosed that Russia has been showing “some willingness” to start discussions about a resolution to the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, which has been devoid of real progress for years. That assessment came as Mr Lavrov announced that the Trump administration had committed to sending its new special envoy for Ukraine negotiations, Kur Volker, to Moscow to discuss next steps.

However several obstacles remain and are likely to impact achieving a more functional US-Russia relationship. These include the new US sanctions that have been imposed, Russia’s retaliatory move to expel American diplomats, and of course the ongoing US Justice Department investigation into Russia’s election meddling and potential Trump campaign collusion.

The Trump administration has argued that there is good reason for the US to seek a more productive relationship with Russia. Mr Tillerson has cited modest signs of progress in Syria, where the US and Russia recently brokered a ceasefire in the country’s southwestern region, as a sign that there’s fertile ground for cooperation. The Syrian ceasefire effectively reflected a return of US-Russia cooperation to lower violence there. The US had looked warily at a series of safe zones in Syria that Russia had negotiated along with Turkey and Iran – but not the US.

Italy Gives Go-ahead to Libya Naval Mission

Italy’s Parliament on Wednesday 2 August authorized a limited naval mission to help Libya’s coastguard curb migrant flow, which have become a source of growing political friction in the south European nation ahead of national elections expected to take place early next year.

The lower house voted by 328 to 113 in favour of the mission. An Italian official has disclosed that Rome planned to send two boats to Libyan waters, with Defense Minister Roberta Pinotti sating that the vessels would only provide technical support and would not infringe on the North African country’s sovereignty. Speaking on 1 August in parliament ahead of Wednesday’s vote, Pinotti disclosed, “(we will) provide logistical, technical and operation support for Libyan naval vessels, helping them and supporting them in shared and coordinated actions,” adding that “there will be no harm done or slight given to Libyan sovereignty, because, if anything, our aims is to strengthen Libyan sovereignty.” She stressed that Italy had no intention of imposing a blockade on Libya’s coast.

The final decision comes after Italy announced the operation late last month, stating that it had been requested by Libya’s UN-backed government. Italy hopes to deploy six ships into Libyan territorial waters, however the plans had to be scaled back following protests from Tripoli.

After a surge in migrant arrivals on boats from Libya at the beginning of this year, the Interior Ministry disclosed on 2 August that the numbers of newcomers has slowed in recent weeks, noting that so far this year, 95,215 people had reached Italy, down 2.7 percent on the same period in 2016. Some 2,230 migrants, most of them Africans fleeing poverty and violence back home, have died so far this year trying to make the dangerous sea crossing. The total number of migrants who have arrived in Italy over the past four years is some 600,000 – effectively putting the country’s network of reception centres under huge strain and causing increasing political tensions.

Italy is due to hold national elections by May 2018, with voting widely expected to take place in early 2018. The migrant issue is expected to top the political agenda. Rightist parties have accused the centre-left government of doing nothing gin order to halt the influx. Speaking to reporters in parliament, Giancarlo Giorgetti, deputy head of the opposition Northern League party, stated “the (migrant boats) will not be pushed back to the Libyan shore so we don’t understand what we are going to b doing there. The Italian government however is hoping that the Libyan coastguard can help prevent flimsy migrant boats from putting to sea and has been at the forefront of efforts to make the small force more effective, including by training its members and upgrading its fleet. Rome has also placed pressure on non-governmental organizations, which have been playing an increasingly important role in picking up migrants off the Libyan coast and brining them to Italy. The government has introduce a code of conduct for the NGOs and has demanded that armed police travel on their boas to help root out eventual people smugglers. However only three out of eight humanitarian groups operating in the southern Mediterranean Sea agreed to the Italian terms earlier this month. While Italy did not specifically indicate the consequences for those that did not sign up, on 2 August the Italian coastguard halted at sea a boat operated by German NGO Jugend Rettet, which had said ‘No’ to the code of conduct. The vessel was searched and then escorted to port, while the crew ID’s were checked.

Latest Poll Shows Majority of Poles Willing to Help Refugees

According to a European Union (EU) poll released earlier this month, a majority of Poles want their government to help refugees, a result that may be seen as in stark contrast with Warsaw’s opposition to an EU plan to support asylum seekers across the continent.

The nationalist-minded, eurosceptic government in Poland has refused to take in a single asylum seeker under th EU’s plan, which is mean to relocate across Europe refugees who have reached the continent through Italy and Greece after escaping wars and persecution in the Middle East and Africa. Due to its refusal, Poland is now under an EU disciplinary procedure for not applying the EU relocation plan for refugees.

However according to a poll released by the EU on 2 August, 56 percent majority of Polish interviews in a Eurobarometer poll called for Poland to help refugees in reply to a question on whether the country should do so. The figure increased form 53 percent recorded in a pervious poll, which was conducted last autumn. Those who opposed helping refugees decreased to 36 percent from 37. Around 33,000 people were interviewed across Europe for the poll, with some 1,000 being interviewed in Poland. The survey was conducted in May, before the latest friction between Poland and the EU over separate judicial reforms flared up.

Hungary and the Czech Republic are also facing sanctions over the refuges’ relocation plan. Furthermore, Slovakia has also opposed the EU plan, citing security concerns after a number of Islamist attacks in the EU in recent years. Amongst the Eastern European states with governments that are reluctant to take in asylum seekers, Poles are alone in being supportive of refugees, while a broad majority of Czechs, Hungarians and Slovaks say that their countries should not help ease the ongoing migration crisis. On average, 67 percent of EU interviewees stated that their countries should help refugees, with peaks of 90 percent in Sweden, 88 percent in the Netherlands and 87 percent in Denmark.

French President’s Popularity Rating on the Decline

Last month, President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity dropped to the lowest rating for a French president just two months into his term, the latest poll has indicated, in what is a sign that controversy over spending cuts and tax reform are taking a toll.

In an Ipsos poll, forty-two percent of those surveyed indicated that they have a positive view of President Macron’s action as president, with as many having a negative view. Positive ratings were down by three points from June, with negative ones up by fifteen points, with more people than in June having an opinion. The poll was carried out on 21 – 22 July, amongst 1,022 people.

Ipsos has noted that even former Socialist President Francois Holland, who turned into France’s most unpopular president in modern history early in his mandate, still benefited from 55 percent positive rating two months into his term.   President Macron’s popularity ratings however remain higher than that of most French politicians, with only Environment Minister Nicolas Hulot ahead of him in the Ipsos poll.

Last month was tough for President Macron, who swept into power in May on promises of non-partisan rule and an end to traditional Left-versus-Right politics. July was marked by a public row over military spending cuts with top armed forces Chief General Pierre de Villiers, which led to de Villiers’ resignation. Other controversies linked to his tax and spending plans have also emerged.

Spain Rocked by Two Terror Attacks

Two terror attacks yesterday, 17 August, have rocked Spain, with at least 13 people killed in an attack in Barcelona, that also injured dozens, and five suspected terrorist killed in a second attack in the town of Cambrils.

On Thursday afternoon, around 16:50 (14:50 GMT), a suspected terrorist drove a white Fiat van into crowds on Las Ramblas in Barcelona. The area is a popular street located in the centre of the city. It runs 1.2 km (0.75 miles) through the centre of Barcelona from the city’s Placa de Catalunya (Catalonia Square) to the Christopher Columbus monument at the seafront. Witnesses at the scene reported that the van deliberately targeted people, weaving from side to side. The driver of the van, believed to be the sole attacker, fled on foot and is still being hunted by police. Two other people however were detained on Thursday over the Las Ramblas attack. According to local media, one of those held is Driss Oubakir, whose documents were used in order to rent the van. Reports say that he is in his 20s, and was born in Morocco, however the latest reports have suggested that he has told police he was not involved and that his documents were stolen. Spanish media have also reported that his younger brother, Moussa Oubakir, is being sought in connection with the Las Ramblas attack. The second man arrested was born in Melilla, the autonomous Spanish city on the north coast of Africa. He has not been named. On Friday, police announced that a third arrest had been made in the Catalan town of Ripoll. Hours after the attack in Las Ramblas, at around 18:30 local time, police found a second van, thought to be a getaway vehicle, in the town of Vic, which is located 80 km north of Barcelona. At 19:30 local time on Thursday, a car is driven into officers at a checkpoint on the outskirts of Barcelona. The incident occurred in Sant Just Desvern. A man is found dead in the car but the interior ministry has denied earlier reports that he was killed by police gunfire. Officials have disclosed that the dead man is not believe to be linked to the Las Ramblas attack, adding that investigations are ongoing. At 01:00 on Friday in Cambrils, a second vehicle attack takes place in the resort south of Barcelona. Police kill five terrorist suspects said to be linked to the Las Ramblas attack.

On Wednesday evening, an explosion ripped through a house in the small town of Alcanar, which is located some 200 km south of Barcelona. One person was killed in that incident. According to Police chief Joseph Lluis Trapero, it appeared that the residents at the house had been “preparing an explosive device.” A Catalan government official has disclosed that a cell may have intended to use gas canisters in the Las Ramblas attack.

Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has described the incident as a “jihadist attack,” with the so-called Islamic State (IS) claiming responsibility. In a brief statement carried by its Amaq news agency, IS stated that the attack was carried out by “Islamic State soldiers.” The group however gave no further evidence or details to back this claim.

The Catalan government has reported that citizens of some 24 countries were killed or injured in the Las Ramblas attack, with one Belgian national already confirmed dead. On Friday, France’s foreign ministry disclosed that 26 French nationals were injured, with at least 11 in a serious condition. Officials have reported that Hong Kong, Taiwan and Greece are amongst those saying that their citizens were injured, adding that German, Pakistani, Philippine, Venezuelan, Australian, Peruvian, Dutch, Algerian and Chinese nationals are also amongst the casualties.

Europe’s Deadly Vehicle Attacks

• 9 August 2017, Paris France – A man rammed a BMW into a group of soldiers, injuring six.
• 19 June 2017, London United Kingdom – A man is killed in a van attack on Muslims outside a mosque in Finsbury Park
• 3 June 2017, London United Kingdom – Eight people died when three jihadists drove a van into pedestrians on London Bridge and then stabbed passers-by
• 7 April 2017, Stockholm, Sweden – Uzbek Rakhmat Akilov killed five people when he drove a lorry through a shopping area
• 22 Mach 2017, London United Kingdom – Four people died when a car rammed into pedestrians on Westminster Bridge and the driver then stabbed to death a policeman
• 19 December 2016, Berlin Germany – Tunisian Ansi Amri ploughed a truck into a Christmas market at Breitscheidplatz, killing 12 people
• 14 July 2016, Nice France – Tunisian Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel drove a truck into crowds on the Promenade des Anglais, killing 86 people on Bastille Day
• December 2014, France – A van was driven into a Christmas market and a car rammed pedestrians in Dijon, leaving more than 20 wounded.