MS Risk Blog

Air France Expands North Korea No-Fly Zone

This month, Air France-KLM expanded its no-fly zone over North Korea after one of is jets flew past the location where an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) splashed down ten minutes later.

Citing flight data provided by Japan, an airline spokesman disclosed that Air France’s flight 293, a Boeing 777 carrying 323 people on board and flying from Tokyo to Paris, missed North Korea’s latest ICBM as it fell to earth on 28 July by about 100 km (60 miles). The spokesman went on to say that Air France-KLM flied direct to Tokyo and Osaka and the expansion of the no-fly zone could make the flights 10 minutes to 30 minutes longer, depending on the direction.

Late last month, North Korea announced that its latest ICBM test proved its ability to strike America’s mainland. The latest test drew a sharp warning from US President Donald Trump and a rebuke from China.

China Announces End Date for Imports from North Korea

China last month announced that it will stop importing North Korean coal, iron ore, fish and other goods on 5 September 2017 as it implements United Nations sanctions.

Earlier last month, the UN Security Council, including China, backed a new resolution imposing fresh sanctions on North Korea in retaliation for its controversial nuclear programme. The sanctions aim to block US $1 billion worth of North Korean exports – about a third of its total exports.

The announcement by China came as US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Joseph Dunford disclosed that military options were being prepared against the North if diplomatic and economic sanctions failed. The office of South Korean President Moon Jae-in stated that Mr Dunford had made the comments in a 50-minute meeting to discuss North Korean provocation.

China has also appointed a new special envoy for the North Korean issue. China is North Korea’s closest ally, however it has been angered by its repeated missile and nuclear tests. President Xi has urged Washington and Pyongyang to avoid words or actions that could worsen the situation. US President Donald Trump has also called on China to do more in order to stop the North’s nuclear ambitions, while the South Korean leader has called for a peaceful solution, saying that there must not be another war on the Korean Peninsula.

Last month, tensions significant increased over fears that North Korea is close to achieving its goal of putting the mainland US within range of a nuclear weapon. North Korea also threatened to fire intermediate missiles into waters off the coast of the US overseas territory of Guam. The North’s state news agency also stated that about 3.5 million students and workers have volunteered to fight alongside the military to defend their country from the US.

SECURITY ADVISORY: Ivory Coast 4 September 2017

• Ninety-six inmates have escaped from a Katiola Prison.

• A gendarmerie post in Songon has been attacked. The assailants seized a number of weapons.

Between 0500 and 0600 GMT on Sunday 3 September, 96 inmates escaped from a Katiola prison in the Ivory Coast. The inmates escaped by going through the roof of their cells to get to other cells. They then reportedly took advantage of workers who were leaving the facility, in order to break the main gate and flee.

A local judicial source says the escapees were followers of Coulibaly Yacouba. Yacouba, also known as “Yacou le Chinois” (“Yacou the Chinese”) was killed in February 2016 during an attempted jail break from Ivory Coast’s main detention centre in Abidjan. During the escape, ten people, including one guard, were killed, and a further 21 others were injured.

This is the latest in a string of prison breaks in recent weeks. On 8 August, five prisoners escaped from a jail in Gagnoa in southern Ivory Coast. The mayor in Gagnoa said four prison guards and one civilian were arrested on suspicion of aiding the prisoners in their escape. Days later, on 10 August, twenty people escaped from holding cells at the Abidjan courthouse. The escapes clashed with police. Later, seven prison officials were arrested.

Separately, at 2100 (local time) on 2 September, at least five individuals, hooded and heavily armed with AK 47 machine guns, targeted a gendarmerie station in Songon (20km of Abidjan on the road of Dabou) to steal weapons. Security forces exchanged fire with the assailants for more than 20 minutes. The assailants were able to seize several weapons, including automatic Kalashnikovs, before disappearing into the wild, according to witnesses.

GUIDANCE:

In light of the large number of escaped inmates, there is likely to be a greater security presence, including an increased number of traffic and vehicle checkpoints in the areas surrounding Katiola. Camps or offices within 30-75 kilometres should be aware of illegal trespass and be careful around security of vehicles, residences and offices.

MS Risk advises travellers and expatriates in Ivory Coast to remain vigilant throughout the country. Exercise situational awareness Katiola, and Abidijan, as well as previously affected areas including Bouake, Korhogo, Odienne, Adiake, Daloa, Bouafle, Man and San Pedro. Should a disturbance erupt near you, MS Risk advises quickly leaving the area, and if possible, returning to your accommodation or local office and remain there until the situation stabilizes. Monitor local developments and follow guidance and directives as issued by local authorities.

A Brief History of Major Incidents During the Hajj

More than 1.75 million worshippers from 168 countries arrived in Saudi Arabia this week for the five-day ritual, which is a once-in-a-lifetime religious duty for every able-bodied Muslim who can afford it.

All the pilgrims will arrive by Thursday morning at Mount Arafat, about 15 km (10 miles) east of Mecca, for a day-long vigil to atone for their sins and seek God’s mercy. The Eid al-Adha, or feast of the sacrifice, starts on Friday.

Saudi Arabia stakes its reputation on its guardianship of Islam’s holiest sites — Mecca and Medina — and organising the pilgrimage. Officials say they have taken all necessary precautions this year, with more than 100,000 members of the security forces and 30,000 health workers on hand to maintain safety and provide first aid. Security services are also on high alert for terrorist activity, however, they state that so far, no plots have been detected.

The world’s largest annual gathering of Muslims has in the past seen deadly stampedes, fires and riots, with authorities sometimes struggling to respond.

The Largest disaster occurred on 24^th September 2015. Over 2000 pilgrims were killed in a crush and stampede incident in Mina. The Saudi Interior Ministry stated that the stampede was triggered when two large groups of pilgrims intersected from different directions onto the same street. The area was not previously identified as a dangerous bottleneck despite being positioned between two camps. Pilgrims from 42 countries were killed, with the most victims coming from Iran.

Between 2001 and 2006 approximately 614 people were killed in other stampede-related incidents, most occurring during the stoning ritual in Mina.

In 1997, a fire erupted, allegedly caused by exploding canisters of cooking gas, killing around 300 people, although the death toll has never been confirmed. The fire was fanned by winds of nearly 40 miles per hour (64 km/h) causing the destruction of an estimated 70,000 tents. Officially, 1,290 were injured and 217 killed, though witnesses and local newspapers claimed at least 300 were killed, many trampled in the panic. The fire was fought by three hundred fire engines as well as helicopters, and controlled in three hours. The tents are now fire-proof.

In 1987, a clash between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi Arabian security forces resulted in the death of around 400 people. During the Hajj, Iranian pilgrims began a demonstration against the “enemies of Islam” – including the US and Israel. At some point, the protest march was blocked by Saudi riot police and was diverted towards the Great Mosque. At this point, individuals nearby began harassing the demonstrators, throwing bricks and stones. The violence escalated and resulted in a violent clash with security forces, who reportedly used truncheons and electric prods, whilst the demonstrators were armed with knives and clubs. Saudi security personnel reportedly opened fire on the demonstrators, a charge which Saudi officials deny. The rioting, and the resulting stampede caused a reported 402 dead (275 Iranians, 85 Saudis including policemen, and 42 pilgrims from other countries) and 649 wounded (303 Iranians, 145 Saudis and 201 other nationals). The details are controversial. Iranian officials maintain that the Saudis had fired on the protesters without provocation, and that the demonstrations had been peaceful. Saudi officials insist that no shots were fired, and that all deaths were caused by the melee and stampede.

Eid al-Adha is the commemoration of Abraham’s dedication to God, through the readiness to sacrifice his son. It is the most sacred holiday of the Muslim faith. Abraham and his son later built the Kaaba as a site of worship for God. God commanded Abraham to proclaim a pilgrimage to the site to all mankind so that they can come together in one place to show their devotion to God.

Southeast Asian States Vow to Work Together to Combat “Growing” Militant Threat

Southeast Asian countries have announced that they will cooperate more closely with intelligence and law enforcement authorities from the Middle East amidst “grave concerns” about an elevated threat from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in the region.

Late last month, representatives from four Southeast Asian nations, along with Australia and New Zealand met in the Indonesian city of Manado to develop a response to the increased danger posed by IS, which has been highlighted in recent months by the occupation of parts of the southern Philippines city of Marawi by militants who have pledged allegiance to the terror group. The battle has sparked fears that as IS continues to suffer setbacks in Iraq and Syria, it is seeking to create a new stronghold in the region, buttressed by Southeast Asian fighters who are returning from the Middle East and by other militants who have been inspired by the group and by the Marawi conflict.

A joint statement released by the participants described the regional threat from Islamist militants as growing and rapidly evolving, with the countries calling for enhanced information sharing, as well as cooperation on border control, deradicalisation, law reform and countering Islamists’ prolific use of social media to plan attacks and lure recruits.

The meeting was co-hosted by Indonesia and Australia, with the other participants being Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and New Zealand. The main initiative was a law enforcement dialogue to be co-hosted by the Indonesian and Australian police forces in August brining together key stakeholders affected by IS. Two senior law enforcement sources at the Manado meeting have disclosed that countries from the Middle East, including Turkey, would attend the summit in order to kick off cooperation across the two regions.

IS has a dedicated military unit that is made up of hundreds of Southeast Asian fighters in Syria and Iraq and led by Indonesian militant Bahrumsyah. According to Indonesian police, there are 510 Indonesian supporters of IS in Iraq and Syria, including 113 women. About twenty Islamist fighters from Indonesia are believed by counterterrorism authorities to be fighting in Marawi, which is a predominately Muslim city on the Philippines Island of Mindanao that has been a hotbed of Islamist unrest for decades and a magnet for militants from around the region. One of the leaders of the militants in Marawi is a Malaysian Islamic studies lecturer, Ahmad Mahmud, who arranged financing and the recruitment of foreign fighters.

While the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is the multilateral regional forum made up of ten nations, has long had a framework for cooperation on combating violent extremism, analysts and officials have stated that coordination has been poor. A report released late last month from the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict identified “formidable obstacles” to greater cooperation between Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines – all of which are the front-line states that are facing the Islamist threat in Southeast Asia. According to the report, “these include the deep-seated political distrust between the Philippines and Malaysia that impedes information sharing; concern from Indonesia and Malaysia police about mixed loyalties of local counterparts in Mindanao, especially given clan and family links; and institutional disjuncture’s that give the lead in counter-terrorism to the police in Indonesia and Malaysia but to the military in the Philippines.”

After more than two months of intense fighting, IS-aligned militants continue to control part of Marawi. Over 600 people have been killed in the fighting, including 45 civilians and 114 members of the security forces, with the government reporting that the remaining figure is composed of the militants.