MS Risk Limited

08 May Chinese Strategic Influence Activity in the Western Balkans During April

Posted at 22:43h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Chinese influence activity in the Western Balkans continues to centre on infrastructure, energy, and industrial investment, providing Beijing with sustained political access and long-term economic leverage across the region. During April 2026, Chinese engagement remained most visible in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and...

20 Apr Persistent Insurgent Violence – A Freshly Re-elected Thai Government Faces Mounting Security Concerns as Pressure Mounts in The South

Posted at 21:46h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements As a fragile peace holds in the east, and looming energy shortages threaten nationwide disruption, insurgent activity remains a persistent thorn in the side of the newly re-elected Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul. Violent activity by the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) against the Thai government...

13 Apr Electoral Defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister and Political Transition

Posted at 22:51h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements. Viktor Orbán has lost power following a decisive electoral defeat, ending over a decade of continuous rule and marking a significant political shift in Hungary. Opposition leader Péter Magyar has secured a strong mandate, reportedly achieving a parliamentary supermajority, enabling potential structural and...

08 Apr Lebanon’s Sovereignty Crisis: The State’s Break with Hezbollah and Its Strategic Limits

Posted at 22:07h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The Lebanese government’s unprecedented ban on Hezbollah’s military activities on 2 March and expulsion of Iran’s ambassador on 24 March represent the strongest assertion of state authority over non-state arms since the 1975–90 civil war; however, enforcement will almost certainly remain symbolic without...

08 Apr Wagner legacy networks and influence activity in Eastern Europe during March

Posted at 21:21h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements. Wagner-linked networks continue to operate in a fragmented but persistent manner following the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, maintaining influence capabilities across parts of Eastern Europe and the Balkans. Activity in March indicates a shift from centrally coordinated paramilitary operations to decentralised influence, training,...

02 Apr Strategic Reorientation – The US Redeploys its Patriot Missile System out of the Korean Peninsula

Posted at 23:09h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements On the 10th March, the South Korean President Lee Jae Myung expressed opposition to the redeployment of Patriot missile systems away from Osan Air Base to the Middle East. The move weakens South Korea’s protective capability on the peninsula, despite the government’s public rhetoric...

13 Mar Regional Spillover of the US-Israel War on Iran: Implications for MENA Security

Posted at 18:43h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The US-Israeli campaign against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026, has triggered multi-front escalation across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and the Red Sea corridor, fundamentally reshaping the MENA security environment. Iran’s proxy network has been operationalised for retaliatory strikes, but internal fractures and declining...

11 Mar Night Wolves mobilisation activity in Eastern Europe during February 2026

Posted at 22:00h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The Night Wolves motorcycle club sustained symbolic and network-building activity across parts of Eastern Europe in February 2026, reinforcing pro-Kremlin historical narratives under a cultural and patriotic banner. Public-facing events remain framed as commemorative or charitable in nature, providing a socially acceptable platform...

28 Feb Munich Security Conference 2026 – European Rearmament and Deterrence Recalibration

Posted at 00:33h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The 2026 Munich Security Conference signalled that the post-Cold War model of European security dependence is eroding, as allies prepare for a future in which a US security guarantee cannot be assumed to be stable or unconditional. Emerging consultations among France, the...

24 Feb The ‘Iron-clad’ Alliance – Philippines and US Expand Defence Commitment

Posted at 21:54h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements On Tuesday 17th February, a joint-statement from the US and Philippines pledged additional deployments of missile and unmanned systems in the Philippines. The announcement, made following the annual US-Philippines Strategic Dialogue in Manila, reinforces the Philippine’s capacity to leverage distributed deterrence. As the Philippines...