MS Risk Blog

Egypt Security Update (9 March 2013)

Mass Riots

On Saturday, violence escalated in Port Said after an Egyptian court upheld death sentences for 21 of 52 defendants relating to a deadly football riot in Port Said in 2011. The ruling has already sparked widespread violence, throughout several Egyptian cities, and threatens to continue spreading unrest. One Port Said resident said the city’s residents are “boiling with rage,” having expected five to ten year sentences. “…The death sentences made us feel like we were the scapegoats for [the government’s] deeds. We want retribution for those who died amongst us.”

On Friday, in anticipation of the verdicts, the Egyptian military took taken over security duties in Port Said, believing the residents more likely to remain calm toward the military than the police, whom they distrust.

In the Suez region, Suez Canal Authority spokesmen Tarek Hassanein stated that the canal has not been affected by protests and that shipping traffic is “completely safe.” This announcement followed attempts earlier in the day to block a ferry’s passage in Port Said’s Mediterranean seaport. Port Said and nearby regions are beginning to calm.

Meanwhile, in Cairo, the Al-Ahly Football Club’s most ardent fans—the Ultras— are discontent with the verdict, believing them too lenient, as five of seven police officers were acquitted and the remaining two were given 15 year sentences. The Al-Ahly fans believe the police were directly responsible for allowing the riots to spin out of control, and the majority of the 74 lives lost were those of Al-Ahly supporters. Many people believe the police stood by in revenge for Al-Ahly fans’ role in the 2011 protests against then President Hosni Mubarak. The Ultras set fire to the Police Club in Gezira, and ransacked Egyptian Football Association building, stealing trophies as they set the building ablaze. Both properties are near the Al Ahly club. An army spokesman stated that helicopters were dispatched to extinguish the fires.

The manager of Al-Ahly football club, in a measure to calm his fans, released a statement, “The court’s verdict was fair for Ahly fans. The club’s management has full confidence in Egypt’s judiciary and we support the prosecutor-general’s decision to appeal the 28 acquittals. We will continue supporting the families of Port Said football victims and will not give up until we obtain justice for their sons.”

Undeterred, the Ultras have issued a warning that if the prosecutor-general does not order the retrial of acquitted security officials by 7pm on Saturday, they will escalate the protests using “illegitimate methods.”

Officer Strikes

On Tuesday, thousands of Egyptian security officers around the country went began a strike to protest pressure from the Morsi administration to crack down on street demonstrations, and counter-pressure from the public to exercise restraint. Weeks ago, police strikes began sporadically, with tens of officers in scattered cities protesting their politicized position. This strike is the largest and longest in memory.

Under former President Mubarak, security forces had little training or oversight, using arbitrary force to control citizens, in particular, any political opposition. Anger over these measures has cost police forces the respect of Egyptian citizens, who are incensed by the continued brutality of the police, as well as President Morsi’s inability to deliver changes to security forces.

On Tuesday, 2,000 riot officers in Ismailia refused to deploy for crowd control in Port Said. By Thursday, security officers had closed down at least 30 police stations around the country, including the cities of Cairo, Giza, Ismailia, Port Said, Minya, Sohag, Al Dakahleya, Al Gharbeya and Alexandria, as well as tens of central security divisions (each of which can hold thousands of soldiers) in the Sinai, the Nile Delta and elsewhere.

At the Qasr al-Nile police station in Cairo, two dozen officers said they had shut down the station because one of their colleagues had been killed in clashes with protesters, something they see as a daily occurrence in Egypt. The officers complained that they are called upon to confront protesters, while simultaneously being demonized when they harm someone.

By Thursday, 10,000 soldiers, including generals, went on strike at a camp near the Nile Delta city of Menoufia, refusing to confront street protesters and demanding the resignation of Egypt’s new interior minister, Mohamed Ibrahim. Some officers have also demanded more weapons and a freer hand to use them to beat back demonstrators.

Morsi supporters argue that he is gradually trying to overhaul the Interior Ministry as promised because he needs an effective security force to maintain order and to protect the presidential palace.  Under Mubarak, who kept Egypt under a 30 year state of emergency, there were almost no major political protests, nor any public criticism of the police.

Parliamentary Elections

On Wednesday, the Egyptian Administrative court suspended parliamentary elections due the Mursi administration’s failure to provide the Supreme court a final review of the new electoral law before enacting it. While this appears to be a minor technicality, its intention is to display deference to the court system which upholds rule of law. The Morsi administration has acknowledged this error, and will likely correct it quickly.

The National Salvation front, who has decided to boycott parliamentary elections, has announced that all liberal parties will merge under one name—most likely the Wafd Party, which is financially solid, visible throughout Egypt, and historically most closely associated with national struggle. Leaders of individual parties will work to convince their base that this move is the best step.

The group will also launch a new satellite channel in order to reflect the Front’s direction as well as providing political and social alternatives. Misr 25, the only satellite channel that focuses on the policies of the Muslim Brotherhood, has struggled to reach non-Brotherhood members. Currently, members who watch the channel believe it an organizational and ideological duty.

Rumours are circulating that despite boycott, members of the Wafd Party and the National Democratic Party may participate in exchange for gaining seven seats for each party in the cabinet that will be formed following the parliamentary elections.

Further, the National Salvation Front will form a parallel parliament similar to the one for which the Islamists will compete next month. This approach, adopted by pressure groups late in Murbarak’s regime, is a pressure tool for the opposition. During Mubarak’s tenure, upon the enactment of a parallel government, he was quoted as saying, “Let them have fun.” Three months later, the outbreak of the Egyptian revolution began.

Fourth French Soldier Killed in Action (6 March 2013)

French President Francois Hollande announced today that top Islamic extremist leaders, who have been seeking shelter in the northern mountainous region of Mali, have been killed.  Meanwhile France suffers a fourth death in Mali.  The security situation throughout Mali remains to be volatile.  With the recent unconfirmed deaths of Abdelhamid Abou Zeid and Mokhtar Belmokhtar, anyone remaining in the country is highly advised to relocate to the capital city of Bamako as retaliatory attacks throughout the northern region are expected to occur.  Companies whose employees remain within Mali should take additional security precautions around company buildings as well as travel routes taken by employees.  MS Risk advises those who are travelling in the country to use alternate routes and to not travel at night.  Although a number of militants are known to be hiding in the Ifoghas mountains, it is highly likely that a number of rebels are present throughout the northern region and may seek to kidnap westerners as a form of retaliation.

During his visit to Warsaw, Poland for a six-nation European Union defence summit, President Hollande indicated that “the terrorist kingpins have been destroyed” in the Ifoghas mountains.  However he declined to comment if key commander Mokhtar Belmokhtar is amongst those key AQIM leaders that have been killed in recent days.  Hollande meanwhile has indicated that France will begin to pull its troops out of Mali sometime in April.  According to the President, the final phase of the French military intervention “will last through March and from April there will be a decrease in the number of French soldiers in Mali as African forces will take over, supported by the Europeans.”  Although initially France’s Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius had indicated in early February that French troop numbers in Mali, who now number around 4,000, would decrease as of March, if all goes according to plan, the recent sharp increase of suicide attacks in the former Islamist strongholds, coupled with a general unreadiness of full deployment of African forces, has effectively forced officials in France to maintain their army numbers within the country as the security situation remains too fluid to withdrawal.

Meanwhile France suffered another casualty on Wednesday when a French soldier was killed during fighting against Islamist militants in eastern Mali, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) from the northern city of Gao.  Sergeant Wilfried Pingaud (37) is the fourth French soldier to have died in action.  He was a member of the 68th African Artillery Regiment based in Valbonne in southern France.   The French soldier died when a group of Islamist fighters attacked French and Malian troops as they were carrying out operations to secure the area.  During the attack, a dozen militants were killed while four Malian soldiers were wounded.  So far, France has suffered relatively minimal casualties during its operation in Mali which was launched in mid-January.  On Saturday, a paratrooper was killed during an operation that was aimed at removing Islamist militants from the Ifoghas mountains.  A legionnaire with the 2nd Foreign Parachute Regiment was killed amidst heavy fighting on February 19 while a helicopter pilot died on the first day of the French military intervention.  Although the intervention initially resulted in a quick ousting of the rebels who had previously controlled the northern region of the country, fighting has intensified over the past week as efforts have focused on hunting down the militants who are believed to be in the mountainous region of the country.

Mali Security Update (4 March 2013)

After a weekend of increased fighting in the mountainous region of northern Mali, al-Qaeda sources have come forth and confirmed the death of one of the leaders of the organization’s North African wing.  The death of Abdelhamid Abou Zeid is the most significant success for the French-led operation against Islamist fighters in Mali.  Meanwhile the families of those French nationals who are being held in West Africa have voiced their concerns that this recent development will likely leave their relatives at a greater risk.  They have called on officials in Paris to bring a halt to the bombings in order to allow for negotiations, aimed at securing their release, to take place.

Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, a senior fighter in al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) was killed last week during a French bombing raid in the Ifoghas mountains.  However while an AQIM militant has confirmed the death of Abou Zeid, he has insisted that Mokhtar Belmokhtar, whose death was announced by the Chadian army on Saturday, is alive and fighting.  Although AQIM has formally acknowledged the death of Abou Zeid, the head of France’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Edouard Guillaud, has indicated that it is “probable” that the commander was killed in fighting however until a body is produced, the death will not be confirmed by officials in France.  In regards to the death of Belmokhtar, Admiral Guillaud indicated that reports on jihadist internet forums were stating that he may still be alive.  Further sources have indicated that some Islamist militants believe that at the time of the raid, Belmokhtar was operating near Gao, hundreds of kilometers south of where Chadian troops were engaged in operations.  The validity of these reports have further questioned his death as Belmokhtar has often been seen in Timbuktu and in Gao.  A United States official has also indicated that the Obama Administration is currently searching through US intelligence reports in order to locate specific evidence that confirms the death of Mokhtar Belmokhtar.  As of Sunday, information that was available to the U.S. included both intelligence that supported and contradicted the claim of his death.

AQIM’s acknowledgement of the death of Abou Zeid comes at time when France’s top military officials have claimed that the intervention, which was launched in January, was beginning to break the back of AQIM and its allies in Mali.  The announcement also coincides with increasing appeals put forth by the relatives of four of the French hostages who are being held in the region.  Fears that the hostages may have been used as human shields during the bombing raids, or could now be subjected to reprisal executions, have intensified over the past few days as reports pertaining to Abou Zeid and Belmokhtar have emerged.

Abou Zeid was believed to have been holding four French citizens who were kidnapped in Niger in 2010 however Admiral Guilldau has indicated that these reports cannot be confirmed and that France currently has no information on their whereabouts.  Although officials in France have avoided directly responding to the hostage families critique of the current strategy, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry has indicated that everything possible was being done in order to secure the freedom of the French nationals.

Although neither Abou Zeid nor Belmokhtar sat at the top of AQIM’s hierarchy, they effectively became two of the most powerful al-Qaeda figures in the sub-Sahara.  Both are known to have commanded powerful brigades of fighters who were intensely loyal to them.  Several years ago, Abou Zeid was promoted to the position of deputy leadership in the Sahara by AQIM’s Emir Abdelmalek Droukdel out of a concern that Belmokhtar was growing too strong.  With Algerian security forces degrading the group within its borders, over the next few years, the Sahel countries – Mali, Mauritania and Niger – would become AQIM’s new center of gravity.  However while AQIM was finding itself on new grounds, Droukdel began to struggle to exert control over his southern commanders.  He would go on to appoint Jemal Oukacha – also known as Yahay Abou el-Hammam – in an effort to restore his influence.  Jemal Oukacha was appointed the overall commander of AQIM in the Sahara last autumn.  His appointment resulted in the announcement that Belmokhtar had been relieved of his command.  Although Jemal Oukacha has been a jihadist for the past decade, he comes from northern Algeria and over the years, he has struggled to gain the degree of influence that both Abou Zeid and Belmokhtar had attained within AQIM.  Both men also counted criminals, corrupt politicians and military officers as their contacts which only enabled them to further their influence and power.  Belmokhtar’s response to his demotion of power and status resulted in the formation of a new commando unit which would be responsible for the January 2013 attack on a plant in Algeria.  If the deaths of Belmokhtar and Abou Zeid are confirmed, this may allow Droukdel and his deputy, Jemal Oukacha to gain greater control of al-Qaeda’s operations in the Sahara.

Top al-Qaeda Leader Killed in Mali

Unconfirmed reports have indicated that top al-Qaeda leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar has been killed by Chadian soldiers in Mali just one day after Chadian President Idris Deby announced that his troops had killed another senior AQIM leader, Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, who was killed in the mountainous region of the country.  If both of these deaths are confirmed, then this will be a major success for the allied forces in Mali who are nearing the two month mark of the military intervention.  Although these deaths will also be seen as a major blow to the al-Qaeda wing, they will likely result in retaliatory attacks in Mali, as well as in Chad as the country’s troops are responsible for his death.

The Chadian army has claimed that they have killed several militants, including Mokhtar Belmokhtar. Although his death has been announced on Chadian state television, officials in Mali and in France have yet to confirm the reports.  A statement that was released by Chadian armed forces spokesman General Zacharia Gobongue indicated that “on Saturday March 2 at noon, Chadian armed forces operating in northern Mali completely destroyed a terrorist base…the toll included several dead terrorists, including their leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar.”  During the operation, weapons, equipment and sixty vehicles were also seized.

Mokhtar Belmokhtar is a veteran al-Qaeda leader who is suspected of ordering the January 2013 attack on an Algerian gas plant which resulted in the deaths of thirty-seven hostages.  His death comes just one day after reports surfaced that Abou Zeid, the second-in-command of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, was killed in Mali on 22 February in the foothills of the Adrar des Ifoghas mountains.  His death is still to be confirmed by DNA evidence.

Senior AQIM Official Likely Killed in Action (1 March 2013)

Although Chadian President Idriss Deby has announced that a senior al-Qaeda militant has been killed in northern Mali, efforts by the Algerian security services are currently under way in order to confirm the reports that one of the most notorious and ruthless leaders of al-Qaeda’s North African wing has in fact been killed.  If these reports are confirmed, it is highly likely that militant rebels in Mali, and possibly in other countries in West Africa, may carry out retaliatory hit-and-run attacks in an attempt to place increased pressure on France to withdraw its military intervention.  Likewise, the lives of fifteen French nationals, who are being held hostage by Islamist militants in West Africa are currently in jeopardy as they may be executed in retaliation for his death.

Chadian President Deby has indicated that the country’s troops killed Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, one of the main leaders of al-Qaeda’s north African branch on 22 February during fighting in northern Mali.  According to reports, Chadian troops confronted a number of jihadists in the mountainous region near Kidal.  It has also been reported that the commander was amongst forty militants who were killed near the border with Algeria.  Although these reports have yet to be confirmed by officials in France, Algeria or Mali, Washington has indicated that these reports appear to be credible and that they view his death as a serious blow to the al-Qaeda wing.

Algerian security services have taken DNA samples from two of Abou Zeid’s relatives in order to compare them with the body which reportedly belongs to him.  If the testing comes back positive, the killing of Abou Zeid, a longtime militant who has been linked with a number of kidnappings and executions of Westerns, would be a major success for French forces.  However it is highly likely that his death will also come with increased retaliatory attacks in Mali and possibly in Chad.  The killing of this high-leveled militant will no doubtedly spark a number of hit-and-run attacks throughout Mali.  Any citizens remaining in the country are advised to relocate to Bamako and avoid the main former strongholds, including Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal.  Citizens in Chad should also remain vigilant as retaliatory attacks may be staged in that country in the coming days and weeks.

Abou Zeid, a 46-year-old whose real name is Mohamed Ghedir, was often seen in the cities of Gao and Timbuktu after Islamists took control of northern Mali last year.  An Algerian born near the border with Libya, Abou Zeid is a former smuggler who embraced radical Islam in the 1990’s and who became one of AQIM’s key leaders.  He is suspected of being behind a series of brutal kidnappings in several countries, including British national Edwin Dyer, who was abducted in Niger and executed in 2009, and a 78-year-old French aid worker Michel Germaneau, who was executed in 2010.  Abou Zeid is believed to be holding a number of Western hostages, including four French citizens who were kidnapped in Niger in 2010.  If his death is confirmed by Algerian authorities, then the lives of those French hostages may be in jeopardy as they may be executed in retaliation for his death.  Similarly the well being of a French family who was recently kidnapped in northern Cameroon and taken over to Nigeria may also be at risk.  Although the group holding the family hostage is not directly linked to the militants in Mali, their execution may be used to issue a warning to France to halt the military intervention in Mali.

Abou Zeid is thought to have about 200 seasoned fighters under his command, mainly comprised of Algerians, Mauritanians and Malians, who are well equipped and highly mobile.   Last year, an Algiers court sentenced Abou Zeid in absentia to life in prison for having formed an international armed group implicated in the kidnapping of foreigners.  Five other members of his family were jailed for ten years each.  He is seen as a true religious fanatic and more uncompromising than some other leaders of north African armed Islamist groups, such as Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the mastermind behind the January attack on an Algerian natural gas facility which left thirty seven foreign hostages dead.