MS Risk Blog

Malian Soldiers Clash with Tuareg Fighters Near Kidal

A spokesman for Mali’s army has indicated that the country’s soldiers have clashed with secular separatist Tuareg fighters in a town south of the rebel-held regional capital of Kidal, a city which has been under the control of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) since February of this year when Islamist militants fled.  This is the first time that the Malian army has fought against the Tuareg separatists since France launched its intervention in January of this year.  A number of on the ground sources have indicated that the Malian army is eager to ensure that Kidal, which is located in the far north of Mali near the border with Algeria, is under the government’s full control before the presidential elections take place on 28 July.  However the Tuareg separatists have indicated that they will not allow Malian authorities into Kidal ahead of the polls.

According to reports, Malian troops attacked militant positions in the town of Anefis, which is located 200 kilometers (125 miles) south of Kidal.  The attack was part of an operation to retake the city from the ethnic Tuareg MNLA.  According to Malian army spokesman Souleymane Maiga, “our troops have engaged armed bandits in the Anefis area who have suffered heavy losses of men and vehicles.”  The clashes have been confirmed by the MNLA, with vice-president Mahamadou Djeri Maiga stating that “the Malian army has attacked our positions this morning in Anefis.  It decided to resolve the situation through war and the Malian government will bear the consequences.”  He further indicated that “we never wanted to resolve the situation by war, but as this is so, we will defend ourselves until the end.”  The vice-president of the MNLA is currently in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso where he is in talks with Malian officials over the staging of Mali’s upcoming elections. However this recent unrest has cast a shadow over the these talks.

Although France has begun to withdraw some of its 4,000 troops from Mali, after driving Islamist groups from the main towns and cities of the north, attacks and uprisings continue to occur throughout the country, resulting in officials debating wether or not the country is prepared for an early withdrawal.  In turn, this incident has further indicated that animosity between the varying ethnic groups in Mali still exists and may slow down the country’s unification process.

Last week, there were protests in the northern city of Gao, in which France was accused of favoring the minority ethnic Tuareg group by allowing the continued occupation of Kidal.  In turn, the latest incident comes just one day after a suicide bomber blew himself up on Tuesday at the house of an MNLA leader in Kidal who is suspected by the Malian army of being an informant for the French military.  According to a military source, “the suicide bomber was waiting for someone in the (MNLA) colonel’s house when he was caught by some youths and set off his bomb.  He is dead and there is one person wounded.”

Released Chinese Ship Returns to Port

A Chinese fishing vessel, the Liaoning Generic Fishing No. 25000, seized by the North Korean navy in the Yellow Sea earlier this month, safely docked in its home port of Dalian on the evening of Saturday, June 1st. While there have been reports that no ransom was paid in this instance, the incident demonstrates significant potential risks for shipping operating near the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) disputed maritime borders.

The craft and its 16 crew were seized at gunpoint on the 5th of May and taken to be held in North Korea. The ship’s owner, Yu Xuejin, was not aboard and reports that he was informed of the incident on May 10th, when unidentified North Koreans contacted him demanding 600’000 Yuan (£64’000) for the safe return of his vessel. Both Yu and official Chinese sources insist the craft was in Chinese waters, though the ransom demand claimed the vessel was captured because it had strayed in North Korean waters. Yu was ordered to pay the money to a company in Dandong, a Chinese city on the border between the PRC and DPRK with a large population of ethnic Koreans, many of whom retain contact with relatives in the secretive North Korean state.

Instead of paying, Yu contacted the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and publicised his case on China’s micro blogging services, leading to marked public outrage within the PRC. The MFA made representations to the North Korean authorities and successfully secured the release of the vessel and crew on the 21st of May. Yao Guozhi, the captain, claims the crew was kept in poor condition with very little food, though they were able to continue with fishing operations for a time after their release.

While China and North Korean are officially allies, the relationship has become increasingly strained since the end of the Cold War. Beijing finds itself frequently at odds with Pyongyang, and there is significant public demand within China for a firmer diplomatic stance regarding its unpredictable neighbour.

In fact, this incident is only the most recent of numerous acts of piracy in the sea between China and the Korean peninsula. In May last year, 3 Chinese fishing vessels and their 29 crew were taken in similar circumstances in the Yellow Sea, with a ransom of 1.2 million Yuan (£130’000) demanded. In this instance, the captives were reportedly starved and severely beaten while in North Korean custody. Commenting on the most recent incident, a Liaoning Maritime and Fisheries official observed:

“Whatever you call North Korea – rogue state or whatever – these kind of cases just keep on happening. We had such cases last year and the year before. There’s very little we can do to prevent them”

Exact figures for the number of incidents remain unknown – in the past, many Chinese would pay the ransoms, which were at the time very small. This helped ensure incidents were kept out of the public eye. Demands for increased payment in recent cases perhaps indicate the North Koreans responsible have found the piracy profitable and may be escalating their activities as a result.

However, it is extremely unlikely last month’s seizure of the Chinese vessel represents official North Korean policy. North Korea cannot claim to have an entirely coherent state or military, and government entities including the armed forces became weak and disorganised when a disastrous famine killed an estimated 5 – 10% of the population in the mid-1990s.

As a result of the famine, a huge black market formed which is now the most significant economic force within the DPRK. While the current situation is nowhere near as extreme as in the 1990s, the state bureaucracy often fails to supply basic necessities. With the North Korean won essentially worthless access to foreign hard cash for use on the black market is crucial for even the most basic standards of living – cross-border criminality such as smuggling has proliferated dramatically as a result.

Piracy in the Yellow Sea is very likely another symptom of this trend. North Korean armed forces personnel are extremely poorly paid and often malnourished, and many become involved in criminal activity to supplement their meagre earnings. As such the most likely culprits in last month’s incidents, and identified as such by the Chinese victims, are North Korean naval forces acting opportunistically.

While broader state involvement is doubtful, some level of co-operation with local officials is likely, though the exact identity of the Koreans involved remains unknown. Additionally, reporting from similar incidents in the past has suggested the possible involvement of Chinese-Koreans, perhaps indicating a connection with ethnic Korean organised criminality based in the aforementioned border city of Dandong.

North Korea does not recognise the Northern Limit Line, the de facto maritime boundary with South Korea, and has operated beyond it in the past, while its maritime borders with China remain extremely fluid. Disputed territorial claims in the area and lack of strong authority in the DPRK have created a cat and mouse game of border incursions between vessels of both Koreas and Chinese ships. Chinese pirates also operate in the Yellow Sea, and killed a North Korean soldier in 2009. North Korea has a history of capturing South Korean ships, and reportedly continues to hold a total of 427 South Korean sailors and fishermen captive, though this activity has lessened dramatically since a peak in the 1970s.

The North Korean navy is poorly equipped, and for the most part limited to operations in or just beyond it’s territorial waters – the major shipping lanes in the Bohai Strait and similar likely remain outside the reach of most DPRK vessels. Nevertheless, any ships in the Yellow Sea and Korea Bay should be aware of the contentious environment and the potential for DPRK naval forces to engage in opportunistic acts of piracy.

While the political situation on the Korean peninsula has recently begun to calm down again, escalation is almost certain to reoccur in the future. In case of dramatically increased tensions, DPRK violations of South Korean or Chinese waters would be expected, with the North Koreans unlikely to respect the status of any neutral shipping in the area.

Prison Attack in Niger

In what appears to be a third attack carried out by suspected Islamist militants, officials in Niger have confirmed that twenty-two inmates escaped from the main prison in Niger’s capital on Saturday.  This latest attack comes just days after Islamist militants claimed responsibility for two suicide attacks that were carried out on a military base and a uranium mine in northern Niger on May 23.  At least twenty-five people were killed in those attacks.  The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) and an al-Qaeda affiliated group, the Signed-in-Blood Battalion, which is led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar, have claimed responsibility for the two attacks, indicating that they were in retaliation for Niger’s military intervention in Mali, which effectively drove them out of the northern regions of the country earlier this year.

Justice Minister Marou Amadou has confirmed that during Saturday’s prison break in Niamey, three guards were killed.  Although there are conflicting reports pertaining to the events surrounding the prison incident, sources have indicated that weapons had been smuggled into the jail while some of the escapees were prisoners who were facing terrorism charges.  According to Niger’s Justice Minister, “it has emerged from initial investigations at the site that the aggressors obviously benefited from outside complicity regarding the weapon introduced into the prison.”

Officials have indicated that the attack began when a prisoner, believed to be a Sudanese member of MUJAO, grabbed a gun from a guard and proceeded to shoot three guards and a civilian.  Members of the group who were stationed outside the prison then proceeded to open fire.  Sources have indicated that four inmates inside the prison had participated in the attack.  Residents reported seeing gunmen firing at guards at the entrance to the prison at around 15:00 local time.  Nigerien gendarmes later arrived at the prison in order to help the guards, who remained under fire for about forty-five minutes, while police blocked off all roads leading to the facility.

While little information about the prison escapees has been released, officials have confirmed that Malian national Cheibane Ould Hama, who was convicted of killing four Saudi tourists and a US citizen, was amongst those who escaped.  Hama killed four Saudis in an attack on a convoy that was travelling near the border between Mali and Niger in 2009.  He killed an American national in 2000 in front of a bar in Niger’s capital.  Officials have confirmed that he is currently being “actively sought.”  The escaped prisoners are a danger to the region and officials in Niger have called on the citizens of all countries in West Africa to “remain calm” and to exercise their “duty to be vigilant.”

Although Niger has seen a number of kidnappings and attacks occur on its territory in recent years, a number of which have been claimed by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the latest string of attacks are directly linked with Niger’s participation in the ongoing war in Mali.  Consequently, it is likely that such attacks will continue to be carried out and will likely target Westerners and Western interests.

In a separate incident, officers from Niger’s anti-terror squad killed one person and wounded another on Sunday when they opened fire on what they have indicated was a suspicious-looking four-by-four with tinted windows that had been driving back and forth in front of their headquarters.  According to Niger’s Justice Minister, the officers had given the “usual warnings” before firing the shots in order to stop the vehicle.  He further indicated that the car’s two other occupants have been taken into custody.

With three attacks occurring in Niger over the last two weeks, MS Risk advises against all travel to the following regions of the country:  all areas of the country north of the city of Abalak, including the Air Massif region; the province of Agadez (including the road linking Assamakato Agadez and the city of Agadez); areas of Tahoua province north of the city of Tahoua, including the city itself; the area of Tillaberi province north of Niamey, including the road from Niamey to Gao and the road from Niamey to Menaka; areas within 40km of the border with Nigeria in the provinces of Diffa, Maradi and Zinder.  There is a high threat of terrorism and kidnapping in Niger.  Any companies and employees currently in Niger are advised to remain vigilant and to continue to monitor the developments.

Protests Escalate in Turkey

The British Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) has issued a travel advisory against
all but essential travel to Turkey. Demonstrations are taking place in cities across the country. Police are using tear gas and water cannons in response. Foreigners are advised to avoid all demonstrations.

Anti-government demonstrations have entered their third day as battles between police and protesters have spread to 48 cities in Turkey.

The protests initially began as a sit-in over a development project which threatened to redevelop Gezi Park, the last patch of green space in the commercial district of Istanbul. Demonstrators attempted to prevent workers from razing some of the 600 trees for the restoration of Ottoman-era military barracks which will be turned into a shopping centre.

Turkish police responded to the demonstrators by using electric shock batons and tear gas, sparking national protests against what opposition calls the government’s limiting of personal freedoms and an “increasingly conservative and authoritarian agenda”.

By Saturday, the protests had spread to over 90 separate anti-government demonstrations in 48 cities throughout Turkey. Thousands of Turkish residents in Istanbul marched on Taksim Square, chanting “shoulder to shoulder against fascism” and “government resign.” The protests mark the largest demonstrations against Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which were elected in 2002, and re-elected in 2007. Erdoğan has indicated his desire to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third term.

As clashes escalated, demonstrators attacked police cars and destroyed property. Media in the region has been shut down or limited, further stirring anger among citizens. Turkish police report 26 police officers and 53 civilians had been hurt. Unconfirmed reports from Amnesty International claim that two people had been killed and over 1,000 injured. Police arrested and detained 939 people around the nation. Most have since been released; the remainder will be put on trial.

The harsh methods used by the Turkish police have sparked outrage worldwide. On Saturday, amid outcry from the UK, US, and Amnesty International, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called on the police to withdraw from the demonstrations. Erdoğan admitted to the extremism in police response; however he maintains that the redevelopment of Gezi Park was an excuse for the unrest believing his main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), are responsible stirring tensions. Edrogan also offered to speak to the protesters, however there is no clear leader of the demonstrations. The Prime Minister pledged to continue with plans to redevelop Taksim Square.

On Sunday morning, despite isolated clashes, the atmosphere is relatively peaceful, however, the protests are expected to occur in the afternoons and evenings, and are suspected to be sustained.

Militants are Threatening all of West Africa

Ghana’s President John Mahama has warned that Islamist militants pose a threat that could destabilise the whole of West Africa.  This announcement comes just days after Niger’s President indicated that Islamist militants, who attacked two sights in Niger, had come from southern Libya.  It also comes at a time when Nigeria’s army announces that armory belonging to the Lebanese group Hezbollah is discovered in northern Nigeria.

Niger

Ghana’s President Mahama has indicated that while his country has not directly been affected by the threats, no country in the region was safe if an insurgency were to take place in the region.  He further stated that while the French-led military operation had helped secure stability in Mali, the conflict was far from being over, stating that “there is the danger of asymmetric attacks like we saw in Niger the last few days, and so it is a matter that worries all of us in the sub-region.”  In turn, the operation to drive out al-Qaeda, and other allied Islamist groups, from northern Mali had showed how the whole Sahel region had “become an attractive foothold for insurgents.”

Nigeria 

Meanwhile in Nigeria, an army spokesman, Brigadier Gen. Ilyasu Isa Abba has confirmed that a cache, including 11 anti-tank weapons, four anti-tank mines, a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) and 21 RPG missiles, 17 AK-47’s, two sub-machine guns and 76 grenades, have been found in a warehouse in the northern city of Kano.  He further indicated that three Lebanese nationals have been arrested while a fourth is still at large.  According to a military statement, one suspect, Mustafa Fawaz, was arrested on May 16 and his “confession unveiled other members of the foreign terrorists network.”  A second suspect, Abdullah Tahini, was arrested several day later while attempting to board a flight to Beirut from the airport in Kano.  The third detained Lebanese national, Talal Roda, was arrested at the Kano home on May 26 while the fourth suspect, who has been identified as Fauzi Fawad, remains to be at large.  Nigeria’s State Security Service has stated that the weapons were intended to be used against “Israeli and Western interests,” with Bassey Ettang, director of the State Security Service in Kano, noting that “this is the handwork of Hezbollah.”  He further indicated that “investigations are still ongoing to determine” if the Lebanese nationals “are really connected to Boko Haram.”

This is the first time that Nigerian authorities have alleged that Hezbollah has had an operational interest in the country.  Kano, and the north-eastern region of Nigeria, have suffered multiple attacks in the last three years, ever since the home-grown Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, launched an insurgency.  According to Mr. Ettang, “you can be sure that if a group like this is existing then it may even lend support to some of the local terrorista we have on the ground.”  Hezbollah is a Shiite military and political movement that is based in Lebanon.  It is considered to be a terrorist organization by the United States.

Reacting to the latest claims, a security official in Israel has indicated that Nigeria was  a “destination state for Shiite terror and global Jihad groups, which are boosting their efforts in Africa as part of international efforts.”  The source further indicated that “the cell exposed and arrested is part of a Shiite terror campaign against Western and Israeli targets around the world which has been taking place for a number of years…the possibility that members of the cell acted under Hezbollah’s orders in other African states, such as Benin, the Ivory Coast, Ghana and Sierra Leone, is also being examined.”