MS Risk Blog

Mali’s Elections Declared Peaceful and a “Great Success”

France’s Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault declared on Monday that elections in Mali, which were held on Sunday, were a “great success” for the country and for France, which deployed its troops to the African nation earlier this year in order to dislodge Islamist militant groups from the northern regions of the country.  A high turnout has been reported despite renewed threats from Islamist groups that polling stations would be attacked.

Thousands of United Nations troops kept the peace on Sunday as Malians voted for a new president in a bid to usher in a new period of peace and stability in the first elections to be held since a military coup helped plunge the country into chaos.  Early indications showed a record turnout in much of the country, where voters were choosing from twenty-seven candidates, all of whom have pledged to restore peace.  Preliminary results collated by journalists in polling stations suggest that former premier Ibrahim Boubacar Keita had taken a clear early lead.  The unofficial projection may indicate that Mr. Keita, 69, could win the elections after the first round.  Amongst the twenty-seven candidates, Mr. Keita is seen as the frontrunner.  His main rival is thought to be Mr. Soumaila Cisse, a former chairman of the Commission of the West African Monetary Union.  An official announcement on the first-round results however is not expected until Friday.  If no candidate winds an overall majority, then a second round run-off between the top two contenders will be scheduled for August 11.

Voting stations opened on Sunday at 8:00AM (0800 GMT) under heavy security just one day after the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is one of the main armed groups linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), had threatened to “strike” polling stations.  However there have been no reports of any serious incidents occurring.  Voting in the northern regions of the country also passed off peacefully.  In Gao, which is northern Mali’s largest city, dozens of people lined up to vote in a school near Independence Square.  Meanwhile in Timbuktu, voting went ahead after initial problems with organizations, in which many voters were unable to find their names on the voting lists.  A large portion of the worry ahead of the polls had been focused on Kidal which was occupied for five months by Tuareg separatists until a ceasefire accord allowed the Malian army to provide security earlier this month.  In the run-up to the elections, ethnic clashes between Tuareg rebels and black African left four people dead.  In turn, gunmen, though to be from the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) kidnapped five polling officials 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Kidal.

Parliamentary Elections Go Ahead in Togo

On Friday, officials in Togo began to tally up the votes after long-delayed parliamentary elections were held on 25 July.  On Thursday, voters had queued up in order to cast their ballots in what officials have indicated were mainly peaceful elections.  The head of the African Union’s observer mission, Guinea’s Prime Minister Kabine Komara, has indicated that the election process seemed smooth throughout the early hours of voting.  The polls come after months of protests which were backed by the opposition in its bid to weaken the ruling family’s decades-long grip on power.  Final results, along with a breakdown of the number of seats won by each party in the proportional electoral system, are not expected for another several days.  However the vote is seen as an indication of what will likely happen when presidential elections are held next year, with some experts indicating that yesterday’s elections could expose weaknesses in the grip of the Ganssingbe family which has ruled the country for more than four decades.

While the African Union observer mission indicated that the election process seemed smooth, roughly two hours after polling stations were opened on Thursday, the most   prominent opposition leader in the West African nation voiced his concerns over some initial issues however he noted that he was confident that the vote would be clear.  Jean Pierre Fabre, who is running for a parliamentary seat, indicated that several polling stations had opened after the agreed time of 0700 GMT and that ballot materials had not been delivered on schedule at a number of ballot stations.  Crowds of several hundred had built up at some of the polling stations, with some complaining that their names could not be found on the voter lists.

The polls mark the latest step in the country’s transition to a democracy after Gnassingbe Eyadema’s rule from 1967 to his death in 2005, when the military installed his son Faure Gnassingbe as president.  Since 2005, Faure Gnassingbe has won elections in 2005 and 2010 however the opposition has denounced both winnings as fraudulent.  Thursday’s elections are the first legislative polls to occur since 2007, when President Gnassingbe’s party won 50 of the 81 seats.  This time, ninety-one seats will be decided.  Since 2007, the polls have been rescheduled twice as mediators struggled to bring the government and opposition to an agreement.  A total of 1,174 candidates are standing in Thursday’s elections, with 159 women among them.

Egypt Security Update

Clashes are expected on Friday, 26 July following an unusual statement by Egyptian General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

On 24 July, al-Sisi, gave a speech at a military graduation ceremony. In the televised speech, he said, “I urge the people to take to the streets this coming Friday to prove their will and give me, the army and police, a mandate to confront possible violence and terrorism. So that in case there was a resort to violence and terrorism, the army would have a mandate to confront this.”

Millions of Egyptians are expected to take to the streets tomorrow in support of the government mandate, as the Muslim brotherhood has been protesting daily, with escalating violence and negative economic impact since the removal of President Mohamed Morsi on 4 July.

While the call for civilian mobilisation is unusual, the reasons behind it may be two-fold. First, it is important for the Egyptian government to prove to Western authorities that they acted legitimately on behalf of the broad majority of Egyptians. The mobilisation of the Egyptians could prove, in a sense, that what the army did on 4 July was not a military-directed coup, but a civilian revolution with assistance from the military. The difference in this language means the difference between deliveries or withdrawals of vital financial aid packages, particularly from the US.

Second, the call for civilian mobilisation follows a bombing conducted in Mansoura  on 24 July, which resulted in the death of 1 office, and the injury of 19 officers and civilians. This is the first time a bomb has been detonated in Nile Valley Egypt since 3 July, and is an alarming escalation. While the military has been tolerant of peaceful and even semi-violent protests, the use of gunfire has instigated reaction. The detonation of a bomb, unusual for the region, signals an impact from outside influence, and directly threatens civil order. Intelligence from the region has indicated that weapons have been sent through the Sinai Peninsula in to Egypt, from Gaza.

Meanwhile, Interim President Adly Monsour has taken a step back from the proceedings. He must walk a fine line between providing hopes of re-establishing dialog with the Muslim Brotherhood in order to create an inclusive new government, and reassuring the West that Egypt is on a path to stability and economic improvement.

In his speech, Al-Sisi  again urged against public unrest, and called for national reconciliation. However, it is likely that a large turnout of Egyptians on Friday will give the military the “permission” they need to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. If reconciliation is not a conceivable option for the Brotherhood, who have rejected several opportunities to work with what they term “the false government”, then it is possible that the Egyptian military could consider, once again, driving the group underground as they had done in the 1950s.

As such, clashes and mass arrests are expected on Friday. Those travelling in the region would be advised to refrain from participation in rallies, as violence is expected. Foreigners should also be wary of unscheduled changes to protest destinations or marches between sites.

Report on Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea

Hijacks

• 16 July 2013 – Armed pirates in two speedboats approached, boarded and hijacked a Marshall Islands-flagged product tanker, the Ocean Centurion, at 0430 LT, approximately 45 nautical miles south-east of Lome, Togo.  They took hostage all the crew members on board the tanker, stole their personal belongings and ordered the Master to sail south and then north towards the Togo/Benin border where they disembarked and escaped via a speedboat, 12 nautical miles from the coastline.  The Togo Navy was informed about the hijacking and a patrol boat was dispatched which escorted the tanker to the Lome anchorage for investigation.  Two crew members on board the tanker were injured during the incident and were transferred to a clinic for medical attention.
• 14 July 2013 – Officials confirmed on Monday that pirates have seized a Malta-flagged, Turkey-owned tanker, the MV Cotton, off the coast of Port-Gentil, Gabon.  The vessel has twenty-four crew members on board, all of which are Indian nationals.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 19 July 2013 – Vanuatu-flagged, US-operates OSV, the C Viking, reported being attacked by pirates at 01:00 LT near position 04:18 N – 007:46E, Usari field, offshore Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria.  The crew members on board the OSV were mustered into the citadel; no injuries were reported.  Pirates looted the vessel, including the bridge, and destroyed some bridge equipment before departing.  This is reportedly the second time that the C Viking was attacked by pirates in the same area.
• 18 July 2013 – Duty Officer on board an anchored USA-flagged bulk carrier, the Liberty Grace, spotted an unlit skiff with 5 – 6 persons on board approaching the bulk carrier at 0150 UTC in position 06:05N – 001:17E, approximately 3 nautical miles off Lome breakwater, Togo.  The Duty Officer directed the ship’s search light towards the skiff, raised the alarm and activated the fire hoses.  The Togo Navy was called.  It was observed by the crew members on board the carrier that the robbers, who were wearing hoods pulled over their heads, were attempting to board the vessel using a pole and hook.  Three flares were fired in the direction of the skiff.  Seeing the crew members’ alertness, the robbers aborted the attempt and moved away.  During the incident, another two skiffs were observed close to the vessel.  A Togolese Navy boat later arrived on location.  The bulk carrier has been reported as safe.
• 14 July 2013 – Around twenty armed robbers in a speed boat approached and boarded a Gabon-flagged landing craft, the Renovation, while underway at 2246 UTC in position 00:29S – 008:51E, Port Gentil, Gabon.  The robbers stole the crew’s personal belongings and escaped.  Port maritime authority was notified of the incident.  No injuries to the crew members not any damage to the vessel was sustained during the incident.

Suspicious Activity 

• 10 July 2013 – Armed security personnel on board an anchored chemical tanker noticed a small boat with an unknown number of persons approaching at 0330 UTC while in position 06:17.8N – 003:21.2E, around 5.4 nautical miles south-west of Fairway Buoy, Lagos Anchorage, Nigeria.  As the boat continued its approach to within 50 metres of the vessel, the armed team fired one warning shot, resulting in the boat moving away.

Weather Analysis

• Gulf of Guinea – Southerly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

• Extended Forecast – Southerly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

Piracy Incidents in Asia – June 2013

Summary

There were 16 reported incidents during the month of June, 2013. This represents a notable increase compared with May, which was relatively quiet, and highlights the continuing trend of increased piracy in the region. This is over triple the number of incidents occurring in June 2012 and 2011, and is the highest rate of incidents in the month of June since 2008.

All reported incidents occurred in the South East Asian region, with none in the North East Asia or Pacific regions.

Incident Occurrences by Country

Indonesia – 12

Malaysia – 3

India – 1

Reported Incidents

3^rd June, Indonesia – SPAR LIBRA boarded at Maura Jawa anchorage. Unsuccessful attempted robbery.

3^rd June, Indonesia – attempted boarding of ATLANTIC CANYON at Belawan Anchorage.

8^th June, Indonesia – BANDAI V boarded at Belawan Anchorage. Unsuccessful armed robbery.

9^th June, Malaysia – tug PU2417 boarded 6nm off Terengganu. Robbers armed with knives and firearms stole fuel and belongings.

9^th June, Malaysia – an unnamed tug 30nm east of Kerteh, Terengganu was boarded by armed pirates, who took all crew members hostage before stealing property.

10^th June, Indonesia – ANNA BARBARA boarded and robbed at Taboneo Anchorage.

12^th June, Indonesia – attempted robber of SENTOSA RIVER at Senipah Tanker Anchorage, Balikpapan.

13^th June, Indonesia – armed robbers boarded EAGLE SAN JUAN and stole property.

13^th June, Indonesia – CSK BRILLIANCE boarded at Maura Jawa anchorage. Armed pirates took crew members hostage and stole property. One crew member was injured.

15^th June, Indonesia – attempted boarded of EMERALD STAR at Taboneo Anchorage.

16^th June, Indonesia – attempted armed robbery of CMA CGM KAILAS at Jakarta Cargo Anchorage.

17^th June, Malaysia – KING RIVER boarded 8nm west-northwest of Lutong, Sarawak. Aggressive pirates took hostage and beat most of the crew before escaping with property.

19^th June, Indonesia – OCEAN GARNET boarded by armed robbers at Muara Jawa anchorage. Property stolen.

20^th June, Indonesia – SENNA JUMBO boarded by armed robbers at Nipah Transit anchorage. One crew member threatened with a knife and property stolen.

27^th June, Indonesia – attempted boarding of unnamed tanker at Jakarta Tanker Anchorage.

30^th June, India – successful robbery of unnamed tanker at Kandla Inner Anchorage.