MS Risk Blog

Considerations on Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference

Yemen began the process of the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) in March to address the issues that have divided the nation in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. The dialogue brings together 565 representatives from various groups across Yemen. Each delegate’s votes and ideas are meant to carry equal weight, regardless of age, gender, background, or social status. By autumn, participants will detail a list of grievances, and suggestions for reform. The group will work together to develop conceptual ideas for a new constitution and system of governance. Of the many nations that have undergone a version of the Arab Spring, Yemen is the only country to enact such a dialogue. However, the NDC has been accused of being Utopian in its endeavours, as Yemen is facing deep issues that stem from decades long grievances. In order for it to be effective, the National Dialogue needs to address several dissimilar issues, and unite them into the definitive goal.

Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, due to a combination of factors including: declining oil resources, crippled economy due to political climate, and the lack of potable water for livestock and agriculture. Yemen’s economy is dependent on foreign aid and remittance from Yemenis who are employed in other parts of the Arabian Peninsula. The majority of the nation survives on under $2 USD per day.

A report released in July by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 5 million Yemenis, over one fifth of the population, are suffering from severe hunger and an additional 5 million don’t have sufficient access to food. More than half of Yemen’s population does not have access to clean water and sanitation, and 6 million lack access to basic health care, including life-saving reproductive health services

According to a prominent Yemeni newspaper, Al-Thawra, nearly 80 percent of conflicts in Yemen’s rural regions are water-related. Water- and land-related disputes result in about 4,000 deaths nationwide each year. An estimated 13.1 million Yemenis do not have access to proper drinking water.

Decaying dams cause the loss of precious water, and wells for groundwater are contaminated by sewage. In 2011, water consumption from the Sana’a Basin was five times more than the natural rate of recharge. It is estimated that in a little more than 10 years, Sana’a will be the world’s first capital to run out of water. Yemeni officials have considered relocating the capital to the coast, or enacting desalination and conservation projects, and siphoning water from other source, but each option either delays the inevitable, or brings its own set of problems.

QAT PRODUCTION

Further complicating the water crisis is the national addiction to qat (or khat). Qat, a narcotic and a mild stimulant, comes from a flowering plant which is native to the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It is a natural appetite suppressant, often chewed in place of meals. Due to its shelf life of only 48 hours, qat was not readily available on the market in Yemen until the 1970s when better roads were created which eased transport of the crop. Today, it features prominently in Yemeni culture. According to the World Health Organization, up to 90 percent of adult men in Yemen chew qat for three to four hours each day.

However, qat cultivation is extremely water-intensive, drawing as much as 40% of the water from the Sana’a Basin. Currently, qat production is also expanding at a rate of 12% per year, displacing vital crops and sending food prices soaring.

Yemen’s economic concerns existed at the outset of unification, as both parts of Yemen had underdeveloped economies. In the north, severe droughts had long-lasting damaging effects on the agricultural sector, particularly coffee crops— the nation’s main import. Shortly after uniting, and due Yemen’s support of Iraq during the Persian Gulf War, nearly a million Yemenis were expelled from Saudi Arabia, cutting remittance that the nation relied heavily on. Both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also drastically reduced economic aid.

Today, Yemen’s economy remains weak. The nation’s employment rate is roughly 35%, and a population boom with a growing youth sector searching for work continues to have detrimental impact on the economy. GDP has been declining at a rate of 10% per year since 2011. Yemen has also dealt with rapid inflation rates; in 1990, $1 US was equal to 11.70 Yemeni Rial. Today, one dollar equals 214.90 Yemeni Rial.

Yemen is predominantly agrarian, and suffers from dwindling natural resources. The economy depends heavily on the oil reserves in the south, but those reserves are expected to be depleted by 2017. This loss of oil could result in devastating economic collapse.

Apart from natural resources and economic weakness, the National Dialogue must also deal with a country divided. At the outset, representatives from South Yemen chose to abstain from attending the dialogue, as it does not address the secessionist movement. A delegate from the NDC was quoted as saying, “There are two Yemens: the Yemen inside the conference and the Yemen outside it.”

North and South Yemen were united in 1990. Following unification, residents in South Yemen felt economically and socially marginalised from the north. In May 1994, the country burst into a crippling civil war which would last for nearly three months, and kill 5,000 people. The North ultimately won the war, however in the aftermath, thousands of southern military and civil employees were forced into early retirement and given pensions below the sustenance level.

Residents of South Yemen continued to feel excluded from Yemeni society and governance. As the years progressed, the South Yemeni’s feeling of resentment and cultural distinction has continued to grow. In 2007, a group called the South Yemen Movement began calling for the re-establishment of an independent southern state. The South Yemen Insurgency embarked on a series of violent attacks aimed at seceding from North Yemen.  In 2011, the Arab Spring became an opening for groups in the south to reassert their desire for federalism or separation.

In March, parties who advocated separating from the North announced their boycott of the NDC. Also boycotting are those who support federalism in a united Yemen. On 18 March, the opening day of the conference, a million-man demonstration took place in Aden calling for an honest dialogue. The demonstration’s motto: “The Decision Is Ours.”

In 2006, 23 members of al-Qaeda escaped from prison in Sanaa. The group, calling themselves “al-Qaeda in Yemen” became the forerunners of the larger and more infamous terrorist organisation, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, (AQAP). The group surfaced following an announcement that Yemeni and Saudi terrorists were unifying under a common banner, and they intended to create a hug for hub for regional terrorism. AQAP soon became the most aggressive arm of al-Qaeda, and the most widely known terrorist organization in Yemen. The group is based in tribal areas outside of Sanaa, which for the most part remain largely outside the control of the Yemeni Government.

The US has been working with Yemen to fight al-Qaeda. On 28 July, a US drone strike hit two vehicles belonging to al-Qaeda militants. Six people were killed, three of whom were al-Qaeda militants. The strikes stir feelings of resentment in the Yemenis: although the US is conducting drone strikes to eradicate the terrorist group, the number of drone strikes has escalated. In 2011, the US conducted 18 strikes; in 2012 there were 53. While civilians were not targeted in the strikes, residents in the area have been killed, or had their home or land destroyed. The result is resentment toward not only the United States, but the Yemeni government, who citizens feel should prevent the strikes.

Al Qaeda-linked militants, as well as disgruntled tribesmen, have also been responsible for hundreds of kidnappings. In May, three members of the Red Cross were abducted, including a Swiss national.  In June, gunmen abducted a Dutch couple, as well as two South Africans in the southern city of Taiz. On 21 July, al-Qaeda militants abducted Iranian diplomat Nour Ahmad Nikbakht in Sana’a. Hostages are sometimes taken as a bartering chip to release friends relatives, or  demand improvement of public services. However, in more malicious attacks, the hostages are taken in order to make a political statement (particularly if the hostage is from the West), or demand a ransom.

The Yemeni National Dialogue has been applauded for being the first initiative to address Yemen’s needs with representatives from throughout the Yemeni diaspora. The nation has been applauded for the unique path that it has chosen to address deep-rooted issues in the hopes of developing a new constitution and preparing for elections in 2014.

It is imperative that Yemen, which is dealing with 20 hour blackouts, food and water shortages, economic instability, secessionists and terrorism, identify and address the impact that each issue subsequently has on the next. Political transition will be neither permanent nor widely accepted until the nation grapples with the humanitarian crisis. While the dialogue addresses national concerns, participants should be wary of neglecting the opinions of those who boycotted, particularly in the South lest they risk the ire of terrorist organizations or militant secessionists who anticipate being further marginalised.

However, hopes remain high within Yemen, as political figures and laypersons, for the first time, have equal footing in developing Yemen’s future.

Preliminary Results from Malian Elections Announced while Togo’s Opposition Party Rejects Parliamentary Election Results

While official results from Sunday’s presidential elections in Mali are not expected to be announced until Friday, the country’s interim government has stated that initial results indicate that Mali’s ex-Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubakar Keita has a clear lead in the polls that are intended to restore democratic rule in Mali.  Meanwhile in Togo’s opposition party has rejected the ruling party’s win in the recent Parliamentary vote.

With a third of the votes counted in Mali’s presidential elections, the country’s interim government has stated on Tuesday that former Prime Minister Keita is expected to win the elections, with former Finance Minister Soumalia Cisse expected to gain second place.  Col Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, the Minister of Territorial Administration, stated to journalists in the capital city of Bamako that “there is one candidate, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who has a wide margin compared with other candidates…. If maintained, there will not be a need for a second round.”  Mr. Cisse’s camp however has rejected the results, calling for an international commission to count the ballots that were case in Sunday’s poll.  His spokesman, Amadou Koita, has called the announcement “scandalous” and has questioned why Col Coulibaly refused to provide figures to back up his statement.  International observers have urged Malians to accept the outcome of the elections while Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara, who is the current head of the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has expressed confidence that the Malian contenders will accept the voters‘ choice.

The announcement of a possible winner in Mali’s critical presidential elections comes just days after France hailed the elections as a success.  The European Union also indicated on Monday that the elections had gone well and that they had been marked by enthusiasm amongst voters despite threats from Islamist terrorists that polling stations throughout the country would be attacked.

Sunday’s vote was the first election to be held since an uprising by Tuareg separatists sparked a military coup in March of last year, which toppled democratically elected President Amadou Toumani Toure and effectively plunged the country into a political crisis which opened the way for Islamist militants to occupy the vast northern desert regions for ten months before being ousted by a French-led military offensive that was launched in January of this year.  The presidential elections are seen as critical in not only completing the transition towards a democracy but also in maintaining stability and security.

On Monday, Togo’s main opposition rejected the provisional electoral results which showed that the ruling party won two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, effectively allowing the current President’s family to maintain its decades-long grip on power.  Although the full elections results of the country’s parliamentary elections were announced by the Electoral Commission on Sunday night, Togo’s main opposition coalition, Let’s Save Togo, had already alleged earlier in the day that irregularities had occurred during the elections.  The following day, Agbeyome Kodjo, a key figure within the Let’s Save Togo party, called the vote and results a “sham,” stating that “its an electoral sham amid massive corruption and proven electoral fraud.”  The West African nation’s constitutional court must now approve the results from Thursday’s elections before they can become final.

According to results that were released by the Electoral Commission on Sunday evening, President Faure Gnassingbe’s UNIR party won 62 of the 91 seats, giving the party a two-thirds majority in Parliament.  If the results are approved by the constitutional court, the President’s party will effectively have control over an even greater percentage of seats than it currently holds.  During the 2007 legislative elections, the UNIR party won 50 of 81 seats.  The closest opposition party was Let’s Save Togo, which won 19 seats.  During Thursday’s elections, the UNIR performed particularly well in the northern region of the country, which is its traditional stronghold.  Meanwhile Let’s Save Togo is stronger in the south, winning seven of the ten seats in the capital city of Lome.  The second-largest opposition group in the elections, the Rainbow coalition, obtained six seats in Parliament.  In a statement that was released late on Monday, the party also rejected the results of the polls, alleging that “several serious anomalies and cases of massive fraud” were recorded during the elections.

Despite the opposition coalition stating that there were irregularities that occurred during the elections, observers from the African Union (AU) and West African bloc ECOWAS have stated that the elections were held in acceptable conditions.  In turn, the United States Embassy in Togo congratulated the Electoral Commission on Monday on the peaceful outcome of the elections, urging all the political parties to “respect the wish of the Togolese people.”  A statement released by the US Embassy stated that “we urge all the political parties to respect the wish of the Togolese people and resolve all differences in a peaceful manner, in conformity with the electoral law.”  The Embassy also urged that the new national assembly undertake the strengthening of democracy and to work for a more prosperous future for the Togolese.

The long-delayed vote came after months of protests, with the opposition coalition seeking to bring about sweeping electoral reforms.  Many of the protests were dispersed by security forces who fired tear gas into the crowds, while some thirty-five people, mostly opposition members, were detained in the run-up to the vote in connection with a number of suspicious fires that had occurred at two major markers.  Thirteen opposition members have since been released, including five candidates who participated in Thursday’s polls.  Over the coming days, as the results of the elections are either confirmed or denied by the constitutional court, it is highly likely that protests may break out if it is announced that the current President’s party has won a majority of the seats in Parliament.

Wave of Terrorism in Pakistan

In the early hours of this morning, Tuesday, 30^th July, the Pakistani Taliban (the TTP) launched an assault on a prison in north-west Pakistan, freeing nearly 250 militants. This incident comes on the day the Pakistani parliament is electing a new president and on top of severe violence throughout the country in the past month following the election of new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. An extremely high level of caution and security awareness should be maintained at all times throughout the country.

Today’s attack occurred in the town of Dera Ismail Kahn, in the Khyber Paktunkhwa province which borders the notorious Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), a haven for militant activity. Up to 100 militants, some dressed in police uniforms, bombarded the prison with mortars and RPGs before launching an assault that lasted for 3 or 4 hours and left at least 13 dead, including 6 police officers. The attackers reportedly used a loudhailer to call the names of specific inmates, set ambushes for the authority’s reinforcements, and then booby trapped the prison – all of which suggests a complex attack planned in advance.

The town’s prison is a century old, and was not designed to hold high security prisoners. Nevertheless, at the time of the attack it contained hundreds of militants from the TTP and other banned groups. Among the fugitives there are reportedly around 30 “hardened militants” who had been jailed for their involvement in major attacks and suicide bombings. As of writing, 14 of the escapees have been recaptured, while the rest are almost certainly fleeing into the FATA – something that will almost certainly make any future apprehension by the state authorities extremely difficult.

The attack is a major embarrassment for the Pakistani state authorities, particularly in light of reports that suggest intelligence was received over a fortnight ago about a planned assault on the jail. The attack is also remarkably similar to an incident in April, 2012 in nearby Bannu, which freed over 400 inmates – questions will likely be asked about how militants successfully executed an almost identical raid over a year later. The TTP also said one of its key leaders freed in the 2012 raid was behind the planning of this most recent incident.

Today’s incident comes in the wake of numerous violent attacks across Pakistan in recent weeks. On Saturday, July 27^th, 57 people were killed in an attack on a market in Parachinar, Kurram province, which borders Afghanistan to the west. On the same day, nine people were killed in attacks on security force check points, including in the western city of Gwador on the border with Iran. On Wednesday, July 24^th, militants stormed the regional headquarters in Sukkur of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), killing 9, including police and intelligence officials. On the 30^th June, 56 were killed in bomb attacks in Quetta and Peshawar, while another attack earlier that month killed 11 foreign mountaineers.

Pakistan has been in the grip of a domestic insurgency led by the TTP since 2007, which has killed thousands of civilians and members of the security forces, and terrorism is endemic to the country as a whole. The TTP in particular has strong connections with other Sunni jihadist organisations such as Al Qaeda, but tends to focus its attacks normally on organs of the Pakistani state and government.

However, the Pakistani state’s response to the TTP and other militant organisations has been extremely flawed, with few notable successes. There are also seemingly justified accusations that elements of the security forces, particularly within the ISI, provide major support to militants. Aside from attacks against state institutions, civilian members of Pakistan’s Shia minority tend to be the most frequent targets of attacks by the Sunni militant groups.

The continuing violence throughout the country in the past months is already becoming a particular problem for the new government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in power since May this year. He is under extreme pressure to outline how he plans to bring the security situation under control, but many observers believe he currently lacks a coherent strategy, choosing instead to prioritise economic development. The BBC recently obtained a leaked copy of a ‘Draft National Counter-terrorism and Extremism Policy’ which lambasted the political leadership of Pakistan for allowing the security situation to deteriorate to its current level, and argued the activities of militants where “the most serious crisis face by the country since independence”. While it is unclear whether the authors of the document were referring to the new government or the previous, new Prime Minister Sharif is certainly yet to take major steps to counter militant activity.

While the death of foreigners in terrorist attacks still remains relatively rare, visitors to Pakistan should be aware of the extremely high risk of terrorist activity throughout the entire country. Common targets include government buildings, markets, holy sites and ‘Western’ areas. An extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained at all times.  In addition, all travel to the remote tribal regions in the North and West should be avoided.

Mali’s Elections Declared Peaceful and a “Great Success”

France’s Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault declared on Monday that elections in Mali, which were held on Sunday, were a “great success” for the country and for France, which deployed its troops to the African nation earlier this year in order to dislodge Islamist militant groups from the northern regions of the country.  A high turnout has been reported despite renewed threats from Islamist groups that polling stations would be attacked.

Thousands of United Nations troops kept the peace on Sunday as Malians voted for a new president in a bid to usher in a new period of peace and stability in the first elections to be held since a military coup helped plunge the country into chaos.  Early indications showed a record turnout in much of the country, where voters were choosing from twenty-seven candidates, all of whom have pledged to restore peace.  Preliminary results collated by journalists in polling stations suggest that former premier Ibrahim Boubacar Keita had taken a clear early lead.  The unofficial projection may indicate that Mr. Keita, 69, could win the elections after the first round.  Amongst the twenty-seven candidates, Mr. Keita is seen as the frontrunner.  His main rival is thought to be Mr. Soumaila Cisse, a former chairman of the Commission of the West African Monetary Union.  An official announcement on the first-round results however is not expected until Friday.  If no candidate winds an overall majority, then a second round run-off between the top two contenders will be scheduled for August 11.

Voting stations opened on Sunday at 8:00AM (0800 GMT) under heavy security just one day after the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is one of the main armed groups linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), had threatened to “strike” polling stations.  However there have been no reports of any serious incidents occurring.  Voting in the northern regions of the country also passed off peacefully.  In Gao, which is northern Mali’s largest city, dozens of people lined up to vote in a school near Independence Square.  Meanwhile in Timbuktu, voting went ahead after initial problems with organizations, in which many voters were unable to find their names on the voting lists.  A large portion of the worry ahead of the polls had been focused on Kidal which was occupied for five months by Tuareg separatists until a ceasefire accord allowed the Malian army to provide security earlier this month.  In the run-up to the elections, ethnic clashes between Tuareg rebels and black African left four people dead.  In turn, gunmen, though to be from the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) kidnapped five polling officials 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Kidal.

Parliamentary Elections Go Ahead in Togo

On Friday, officials in Togo began to tally up the votes after long-delayed parliamentary elections were held on 25 July.  On Thursday, voters had queued up in order to cast their ballots in what officials have indicated were mainly peaceful elections.  The head of the African Union’s observer mission, Guinea’s Prime Minister Kabine Komara, has indicated that the election process seemed smooth throughout the early hours of voting.  The polls come after months of protests which were backed by the opposition in its bid to weaken the ruling family’s decades-long grip on power.  Final results, along with a breakdown of the number of seats won by each party in the proportional electoral system, are not expected for another several days.  However the vote is seen as an indication of what will likely happen when presidential elections are held next year, with some experts indicating that yesterday’s elections could expose weaknesses in the grip of the Ganssingbe family which has ruled the country for more than four decades.

While the African Union observer mission indicated that the election process seemed smooth, roughly two hours after polling stations were opened on Thursday, the most   prominent opposition leader in the West African nation voiced his concerns over some initial issues however he noted that he was confident that the vote would be clear.  Jean Pierre Fabre, who is running for a parliamentary seat, indicated that several polling stations had opened after the agreed time of 0700 GMT and that ballot materials had not been delivered on schedule at a number of ballot stations.  Crowds of several hundred had built up at some of the polling stations, with some complaining that their names could not be found on the voter lists.

The polls mark the latest step in the country’s transition to a democracy after Gnassingbe Eyadema’s rule from 1967 to his death in 2005, when the military installed his son Faure Gnassingbe as president.  Since 2005, Faure Gnassingbe has won elections in 2005 and 2010 however the opposition has denounced both winnings as fraudulent.  Thursday’s elections are the first legislative polls to occur since 2007, when President Gnassingbe’s party won 50 of the 81 seats.  This time, ninety-one seats will be decided.  Since 2007, the polls have been rescheduled twice as mediators struggled to bring the government and opposition to an agreement.  A total of 1,174 candidates are standing in Thursday’s elections, with 159 women among them.