MS Risk Blog

Egypt Update: Sinai in Crisis

The ousting of Mohamed Morsi on 4 July has caused violent conflicts across Egypt. On 16 July, clashes in Cairo resulted in seven dead and 261 wounded. Leaders of Morsi’s party, the Muslim Brotherhood, have called for a “million-man” demonstration in Cairo on 19 July; it is likely that the march will lead to more hostility. However, some analysts believe that the demonstrations are a diversion.

While protesters are in the streets, anti-government factions appear to be preparing for further violence and the conduct of terrorist activity. Salafist militants in the Sinai, reportedly receiving assistance from Hamas, have already conducted several coordinated attacks in the northern part of the peninsula, and may be intent upon bringing the chaos into mainland Egypt.

Counterfeit Military Uniforms

On 16 July, Egyptian security forces seized a shipment of counterfeit Egyptian uniforms and other equipment worth over a million Egyptian pounds from two tankers at the Ain Sukhna Port in the Suez governate. An unnamed source disclosed that the impounded items were to be used in terrorist attacks within Cairo or in other governorates.

This occurrence marks the fourth discovery of counterfeit uniforms in 2013. In March, Egyptian forces raided a counterfeit military uniform workshop north of Cairo, and also found 10,000 items of military-style clothing with an Egyptian businessman on his way to Benghazi. In another case, 25 tonnes of material, similar to that worn by Egyptian soldiers, was seized from a Chinese shipment to Alexandria.

The seizures have been linked with reports that Hamas is using the material to make counterfeit military uniforms. Hamas has been particularly angered by the removal of Morsi, as they had hoped the Islamist-backed party would provided diplomatic and financial support in its struggle with Israel.  However, Hamas has met with growing opposition as the Egyptian media reports that Hamas fighters were and are being smuggled into Egypt to restore and entrench the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood.  Hamas denies both claims; however, the Egyptian government remains concerned that any group with the ability to impersonate Egyptian military personnel could cause problems within the nation.

Militant Movement in Sinai

Following the removal of Mubarak in 2011, North Sinai became a hotbed for violent activity. Security forces abandoned the area for several months, leaving militants and smugglers to take advantage of tunnels and above ground systems to enter the region and hide out in secluded caves and mountains.

Despite the return of Egyptian security forces, the vast, predominantly desert area is still under-policed. The sparseness of officers, many of whom are unfamiliar with the region, provides militants with secluded operational space from which to carry out extremist plots. Since Morsi’s removal from office, two Salafi-Jihadist groups have announced their presence in North Sinai, and have taken responsibility for violence in the region: Ansar al-Shari’a in the Land of Kinaanah (Egypt) announced their existence on 5 July, vowing to respond to the “war against Islam in Egypt.” On 6 July, a group called al-Salafiya al-Jihadiyah fi’l-Sinai condemned the military for allegedly firing on demonstrators in al-Arish, and called for the “comprehensive and immediate application of Islamic law,” telling Egyptians to abandon the concept of democracy and resist “the enemies of Islam in Egypt.”

On 8 July, Dr. Muhammad Beltagy, a senior leader in the Muslim Brotherhood, stated that the MB is not responsible for the upsurge of violence in the Sinai, but that the attacks will stop when Defence Minister, General al-Sisi, withdraws the coup and restores Morsi to office. While this statement sparked rumours of MB responsibility for growing violence in the region, the MB as an entity has in fact made little headway in the Sinai. According to prominent North Sinai activist Mos’ad Abu Fajr, individuals associated with Hamas and their military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, have been aiding the violence in the Sinai through funds provided by one man, Khayrat al Shater, the deputy leader of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, who is now imprisoned.

Violence in North Sinai

Following Morsi’s removal, hard-line militants have mounted daily attacks against Egyptian security forces in the region. The strikes have increased in intensity and boldness, and show greater coordination and planning. Since the removal of Morsi, the following events have occurred in the Sinai:

• 4 July: Gunmen send rocket propelled grenades toward army checkpoints at al-Arish airport.
• 4 July: Gunmen attack an army checkpoint on a road south of al-Arish.
• 4 July:  Police stations and a military intelligence headquarters in Rafah attacked, killing one soldier and wounding two, as Egyptian Army closes over 40 major smuggling tunnels along the Gaza border, and closing the Rafah border itself.
• 5 July: Egyptian border guard killed in a gunfight at Ghornata checkpoint, another wounded hours later.
• 5 July: A series of coordinated attacks throughout North Sinai, presumably by disparate militant groups working in unity.
•  5 July: Morsi supporters attack an administrative building in al-Arish carrying the black flag used by al-Qaeda and its subsidiaries.
• 5 July: Two police officers killed in front of a government building in al-Arish; an additional four officers killed the same day.
• 5 July: Simultaneous attack on five security checkpoints in Sheikh Zweid.
• 6 July: A Coptic Christian priest is killed at an outdoor market.
• 6-7 July: Four simultaneous attacks in Sheikh Zweid.
• 7 July: Egyptian border guards encountered a group of ten militants emerging from a tunnel from Gaza. The group, suspected Hamas fighters, escape back into the tunnel, leaving behind seven boxes of bombs and munitions.
• 7 July: al-Arish pipeline is bombed twice, halting natural gas supplies to Jordan. The pipeline has been struck over a dozen times since Mubarak’s removal in 2011, but had no instances of attack for 10 months.
• 8 July: Israeli sources claim that dozens of Hamas militants crossed into the Sinai and participated in a Muslim Brotherhood attack on an Army post in al-Arish.
• 8 July: A series of attacks are carried out by gunmen on motorcycles and in vehicles. One officer is killed outside a police station in al-Arish. Fourteen suspected militants were arrested.
• 9 July: Militants attack a security checkpoint using RPGs and heavy machine guns in Sadr al-Haytan.
• 10 July 10: Gunmen attempt to assassinate General Ahmad Wasfy, the commander of Egypt’s Second Field Army, responsible for the Sinai.
• 11 July: Militants abduct and decapitate a Christian merchant in Sheikh Zweid.
• 12 July: One Egyptian policeman killed and another wounded by militants who fired rocket-propelled grenades at security checkpoints in al-Arish.
• 13 July: Masked gunmen in an SUV fire at a security checkpoint near al-Arish airport. No injuries reported.
• 13 July: Egyptian security officials arrest a Palestinian man in relation to the al-Arish pipeline bombings. The criminal was detained in the Sinai Peninsula while trying to return to the Gaza Strip.
• 14 July: Militants al-Arish fire RPGs, mistakenly targeting a bus full of workers heading to a cement factory, killing three and injuring 17.
• 17 July: One Egyptian army officer and five soldiers wounded as gunmen attacked three army camps in al-Arish, using mobile anti-aircraft rockets and machine guns.
• 17 July: Egyptian forces seize a cache of handmade weapons in Port Said
• 17 July: Egyptian police officer shot in the neck outside of police station in Al Arish.
• 17 July: Eight people wounded in an attack in Rafah.
• 17 July: Gunmen killed three policemen in al Arish.
• 17 July: Forces intercepted 19 GRAD rockets, with a range up to 10 kilometres, heading to Cairo from Suez. Sources believe the rockets were made and supplied by Hamas and originated from the Gaza Strip.

Egyptian Security Reaction

Egyptian forces are losing troops at a rate of one death and six injuries per day. Per the 1979 peace accord, Egypt has requested and received permission from Israel to send additional troops into the Sinai. Two Egyptian battalions will be deployed: one in Rafah, on the border with Gaza, will focus on smuggling, illegal passage, and the defence of the highly targeted town of al-Arish; another battalion will be established in the centre of the peninsula. Forces intend to protect the peninsula and prevent militant activity from sweeping into mainland Egypt. Patrol has also increased in the Suez region to ensure the safe travel through the Canal Zone.

The offensive is expected to last at least a month, as Egyptian military is determined to eliminate the jihadist presence in the region. On the Israeli side of the border, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has chosen to act only if armed individuals or groups attempt to cross the border, and IDF forces are preparing the soldiers for complex tasks and drilling extreme scenarios. The Egyptian army and government have acted quickly to make its position clear to Israel authorities, receiving an Israel representative for security talks in Cairo hours after Morsi’s overthrow.

Conclusion

Because Egypt is working to regain stability, it is expected that for some time, military forces will more than likely be one step behind militant activities without the aid of outside forces. Attacks appear more united and coordinated than previous attacks over the past two years, and militant actors may also take advantage of Egypt’s tenuous relationship with the Bedouin community in the Sinai, who feel they have not received significant attention from the mainland government for several decades. Certain Bedouin tribes in the region have turned to smuggling as pastoral and other income opportunities have dried out. The result is an increased flow of weapons and contraband, particularly from Libya, which could reach the hands of the militants. If the Egyptian government is intent to set a timeframe on offensive activity in the Sinai, it is likely that the militants are prepared to wait them out.

Fighting Erupts in Guinea While the Body of a French Hostage is Flown Home

At least sixteen people have been burned alive or hacked to death with machetes, while dozens more have been wounded after two days of ethnic clashes took place in Guinea.  Meanwhile in Mali, the body of French hostage Philippe Verdon, who was kidnapped in Mali in 2011 and found dead several weeks ago, has been flown back to Paris on Wednesday after tests confirmed his identity.

The violence in the West African state broke out in the southern forest region early on Monday when petrol station guards from the Guerze tribe in the town of Koule beat to death an ethnic Konianke youth whom they had accused of stealing.  Fighting rapidly spread to the nearby provincial capital of N’Zerekore, which is located 570 kilometers (350 miles) southeast of Conakry.  Several homes have been destroyed as a result of the fighting.  According to Alert Damatang Camara, who is a government spokesman, “the violence recorded since Monday in Koule, and then in N’Zerekore, has left 16 people dead and some 80 wounded.”  He further indicated that security forces have been deployed “en masse” to the affected regions and that calm was beginning to return to the streets.  During a televised address to the nation, Guinea’s President called for calm and unity and has promised to bring those behind the violence to justice.

A number of witnesses have reported that members of the Guerzes and Koniankes tribes have been attacking one another with machetes, axes, sticks, stones and firearms, and that some of the houses and cars in the region had been set on fire.  Communal violence has been common in the region, which is located near the border with Liberia, where clashes between the two tribes regularly break out over religious and other grievances.  The indigenous Guerze are mostly Christian or animist, while the Konianke are Muslims who are considered to be close to Liberia’s Mandingo ethnic community.  During Liberia’s civil war, which concluded in 2003, rebels fighting the forces of then-president Charles Taylor drew much of their support from the Mandingo community.  The Guerze, who are known as Kpelle in Liberia, were generally considered to be supporters of forces who were loyal to Taylor who was jailed last year for “aiding and abetting” war crimes in neighbouring Sierra Leone.

According to sources on the ground in Paris, France, relatives and loved ones of Mr. Verdon gathered in a private room at Paris’s Charles de Gaulle airport in order to retrieve the body, which was flown back on an Air France plane that landed around 0700 GMT.  The French foreign ministry had announced on Sunday that Mr. Verdon’s body had likely been found at the beginning of July.  This is months later after the 53-year-old’s captors had announced in March that they had killed him, however at the time, officials in Paris had never confirmed his death.  On Tuesday, the French president’s office confirmed that the body found in northern Mali was that of Mr. Verdon, however no information surrounding the details of his death have been released.   An autopsy has been scheduled in order to determine exactly how he died.  Mr. Verdon was known to have suffered from an ulcer and tachycardia when he had left for Mali in 2011.  According Pascal Lupart, head of a support committee for Mr. Verdon, “for us, its possible that Philippe died because of his illnesses and that AQIM used this and staged a killing.”

Terrorists Remain at Large After Indonesian Jailbreak

Between 50 – 100 criminals, including notorious jihadist terrorist Fadli Sadama, remain at large following a devastating riot and subsequent jailbreak in Indonesia on Thursday night. A huge manhunt involving the police and military is currently on-going throughout the province of North Sumatra; however there are indications many prisoners may have successfully avoided detection and escaped to other neighbouring provinces. While the direct threat from this incident to foreign visitors or shipping in Indonesia is likely still low, major disruption is to be expected in light of the authorities’ manhunt, particularly in North Sumatra province.

The riot began on Thursday evening at the maximum security Tanjung Gusta prison in Medan, the capital city of North Sumatra province and close to the busy shipping port of Belawan. The riot reportedly began after a power cut disabled water and electricity supplies to the prison on Thursday morning. The prisoners began a protest which escalated into violence throughout the day. Breaking out of their cells, the prisoners proceeded to set fire to numerous parts of the prison, steal guns and take around 15 prison officers hostage. A stand-off with police and the military ensued, while the blaze killed 2 prison staff. 3 prisoners also died in the rioting, before the Indonesian military was allowed to enter and re-establish control peacefully.

In the chaos however, over 200 prisoners reportedly made good their escape from the prison. Authorities moved quickly, establishing road blocks and beginning a huge province-wide manhunt with over 1000 troops. This led to the rapid recapturing of many prisoners; however as of writing it is believed around half of the escapees remain at large. Some were recaptured in neighbouring provinces, showing they managed to successfully circumvent the authorities within North Sumatra and suggesting others may now be at large in other provinces of Indonesia.

There is no indication currently that the riot or subsequent jailbreak was planned or facilitated from the outside. Instead, it appears that massive overcrowding is likely the primary cause – despite its maximum security status and capacity of 1050, Tanjung Gusta was holding nearly 2500 prisoners at the time of the riot, over double capacity. Prisons in Indonesia are routinely overcrowded, with estimates suggesting the penal system is currently running at least at 150% capacity and with money earmarked for improvements routinely embezzled by corrupt officials. Prison riots are common, with Indonesia having seen at least 7 major riots in the past decade, including a prior one at Tanjung Gusta in 2003.

Of particular concern is that 11 individuals convicted of terrorism offences were among the escapees. While some have been recaptured, up to 6 remain at large. This includes Fadli Sadama, a notorious jihadist terrorist. Sadama has been imprisoned since 2010, when he was arrested in Malaysia attempting to smuggle arms back into Indonesia in preparation for attacks on tourists. Sadama is an extreme hard liner and repeat offender, who was also imprisoned from 2003 – 2010 after the 2003 Marriot hotel bombing in Jakarta. Other terrorists currently on the run include some who have undergone militant training in Aceh province. Authorities currently suspect some of the men may attempt to slip into Malaysia. It is also possible they may head north for Aceh, the site of a bloody Islamist insurgency for several decades and a region that, while now broadly peaceful, continues to have some problems with militants.

French Ministry Announces Possible Death of French Hostage; Canadian Released from Mauritanian Jail

The French foreign ministry announced on Sunday in Paris that the body of a French hostage, who was announced killed by his al-Qaeda captors back in March of this year, has “very likely” been found in Mali.  The announcement was followed by French leaders vowing that “we will determine the cause of death and nothing will go unpunished.”  While in Mauritania, a Canadian has been released after being charged with having links to al-Qaeda militants in Mali.

Tests are currently being done in order to confirm if the body, which was found in early July, is in fact that of Philippe Verdon, who was kidnapped by militants belonging to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) from a hotel while on a business trip in northeastern Mali in November 2011.  Foreign ministry spokesman Philippe Lallot indicated on Sunday that “there is a very strong possibility that a body recently found in northern Mali is unfortunately that” of Mr. Verdon.  Earlier on Sunday, French President Francois Hollande also noted in an interview that Mr. Verdon had appeared to have been killed, stating that “we have the worst of news on Philippe Verdon…everything indicates that  he died weeks ago.”  According to reports, the body was found ten days ago in northern Mali.

In March of this year, AQIM announced that it had killed 53-year-old Verdon, however French authorities had not officially confirmed his death at the time.  With the announcement of a possible confirmation of the death of Philippe Verdon, it is necessary to note that AQIM is still holding eight Europeans hostage, including five French nationals.  Theirry Dol, Daniel Larribe, Pierre Legrand and Marc Feret, who were mostly working for French public nuclear giant Areva and its subcontractor Satom, were kidnapped in Niger by al-Qaeda-linked militants on 16 September 2010.  Francoise Larribe, wife of Daniel Larribe, was also captured, however she was released in 2011.  The fifth French hostage, Serge Lazarevic, was kidnapped along with Mr. Verdon on the night of 24 November 2011 while they were staying at their hotel in Hombori.  In late June of this year, AQIM indicated that the eight Europeans were still alive and that they would soon release a new video depicting the five Frenchmen.  However no video has yet been released and their current whereabouts remain unknown.

The families of the two men have insisted that they were no mercenaries or secret service agents however AQIM has firmly indicated that they were killed because of their role as spies for the French government.  In response to the possible death of Mr. Verdon and the other hostages who remain in captivity, President Hollande indicated on Sunday that France was “doing everything” to bring the hostages back.

Meanwhile in Mauritania, a court on Sunday freed a Canadian who was jailed for attempting to join an al-Qaeda training camp in neighbouring Mali.

Aaron Yoon was serving two years in Nouakchott after he was convicted in July of last year, however his sentence was later reduced in an appeal brought by the prosecution who were asking for the term to be extended to ten years.  According to a source, “the Canadian Aaron Yoon was sentenced by an appeals court on Sunday to a year and a half in prison but he was already spent his time in jail and must therefore leave the penitentiary immediately.”

According to the indictment against him, Mr. Yoon was originally arrested in December 2011 when he attempted to visit the camps of AQIM in Mali.  He however has denied any links to terrorism, stating that he had come to mauritania from Morocco in order to study the Koran and to learn Arabic.  However authorities in Mauritania have maintained that he had “strong links with AQIM terrorists and his plan to join the movement is indisputable.”  A judicial source further noted that “we cannot say how and when but he must leave the prison and will probably be removed from the country.”  There is currently no information as to whether Mr. Yoon will return to Canada.

MV Albedo Sinks After Nearly 3 Years in Captivity

At least eleven people have died after a vessel, which was being held by pirates for ransom for nearly three years, sinks off the coast of Somalia.

According to reports, at least four foreign crew members and seven Somali pirates died when a cargo ship, that Somali pirates were holding for ransom, sank off the coast of Somalia earlier this week.  Fifteen other crew members are reported to still be missing.  The Malaysian-owned MV Albedo cargo vessel, along with its crew members, was hijacked 900 miles off the coast of Somalia on 26 November 2010.  At the time, the vessel was en route from the United Arab Emirates to Kenya.  According to one of the pirates holding the vessel, “the ship had been gradually sinking for almost a week, but it sank totally last night…we have confirmed that four foreign crew and seven pirates are dead.  We are missing 13 in total…we had no boats to save them.”

The MV Albedo originally had twenty-three crew members on board, comprising of Bangladeshi (7), Pakistani (7), Sri Lankan (6), Indian (2) and Iranian (1) nationals, when the vessel was seized nearly three years ago.  The seven Pakistani hostages, Captain Jawaid Saleem, Chief Officer Mujaba, Third Officer Raheel Anwar, Fourth Engieer Zulfiqar Ali along with some sailors Kashif Naveed, Faqeer Mohammad Soomro and Ahsan Islam, were released in August 2012 following a payment of ransom that reportedly amounted to US $1.1 million.  One Indian crew member, Raju Prasad, died on board the vessel in July 2011.  However the cause of his death remains to be undetermined as varying reports have suggested that he either died from cholera or was shot in the chest by the pirates holding the vessel captive after a heated telephone conversation with the ship’s owners.  After the Pakistani crew members were freed in 2012, they confirmed that during their time in captivity, they had been tortured by their captors, being locked in solitary confinement or all made to stand outside for several days without food, water or any facilities.

The EU Naval Force has also confirmed that the whereabouts of the fifteen crew members continue to be unclear.  A statement released by the EU Naval Force indicated that it “can confirm that the Malaysian flagged motor vessel MV Albedo, held by armed pirates at an anchorage close to the Somali coast, has sunk in rough seas.”  Further noting that “an EU Naval Force warship and Maritime Police Aircraft have closed the sea area and are carrying out a search and rescue operation to search for any survivors.  The whereabouts of the 15 crew members from the MV Albedo is still to be confirmed.”  It has been reported that some of the hostages had been held on land while the pirates demanded ransoms from the ship’s owners for their release, while some the crew members had been held on board the ship.

The EU Naval Force has currently closed off the surrounding area of sea and is carrying out a search and rescue operation for any survivors of the 15,566 dwt cargo ship.