MS Risk Blog

Wave of Terrorism in Pakistan

In the early hours of this morning, Tuesday, 30^th July, the Pakistani Taliban (the TTP) launched an assault on a prison in north-west Pakistan, freeing nearly 250 militants. This incident comes on the day the Pakistani parliament is electing a new president and on top of severe violence throughout the country in the past month following the election of new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. An extremely high level of caution and security awareness should be maintained at all times throughout the country.

Today’s attack occurred in the town of Dera Ismail Kahn, in the Khyber Paktunkhwa province which borders the notorious Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), a haven for militant activity. Up to 100 militants, some dressed in police uniforms, bombarded the prison with mortars and RPGs before launching an assault that lasted for 3 or 4 hours and left at least 13 dead, including 6 police officers. The attackers reportedly used a loudhailer to call the names of specific inmates, set ambushes for the authority’s reinforcements, and then booby trapped the prison – all of which suggests a complex attack planned in advance.

The town’s prison is a century old, and was not designed to hold high security prisoners. Nevertheless, at the time of the attack it contained hundreds of militants from the TTP and other banned groups. Among the fugitives there are reportedly around 30 “hardened militants” who had been jailed for their involvement in major attacks and suicide bombings. As of writing, 14 of the escapees have been recaptured, while the rest are almost certainly fleeing into the FATA – something that will almost certainly make any future apprehension by the state authorities extremely difficult.

The attack is a major embarrassment for the Pakistani state authorities, particularly in light of reports that suggest intelligence was received over a fortnight ago about a planned assault on the jail. The attack is also remarkably similar to an incident in April, 2012 in nearby Bannu, which freed over 400 inmates – questions will likely be asked about how militants successfully executed an almost identical raid over a year later. The TTP also said one of its key leaders freed in the 2012 raid was behind the planning of this most recent incident.

Today’s incident comes in the wake of numerous violent attacks across Pakistan in recent weeks. On Saturday, July 27^th, 57 people were killed in an attack on a market in Parachinar, Kurram province, which borders Afghanistan to the west. On the same day, nine people were killed in attacks on security force check points, including in the western city of Gwador on the border with Iran. On Wednesday, July 24^th, militants stormed the regional headquarters in Sukkur of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), killing 9, including police and intelligence officials. On the 30^th June, 56 were killed in bomb attacks in Quetta and Peshawar, while another attack earlier that month killed 11 foreign mountaineers.

Pakistan has been in the grip of a domestic insurgency led by the TTP since 2007, which has killed thousands of civilians and members of the security forces, and terrorism is endemic to the country as a whole. The TTP in particular has strong connections with other Sunni jihadist organisations such as Al Qaeda, but tends to focus its attacks normally on organs of the Pakistani state and government.

However, the Pakistani state’s response to the TTP and other militant organisations has been extremely flawed, with few notable successes. There are also seemingly justified accusations that elements of the security forces, particularly within the ISI, provide major support to militants. Aside from attacks against state institutions, civilian members of Pakistan’s Shia minority tend to be the most frequent targets of attacks by the Sunni militant groups.

The continuing violence throughout the country in the past months is already becoming a particular problem for the new government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in power since May this year. He is under extreme pressure to outline how he plans to bring the security situation under control, but many observers believe he currently lacks a coherent strategy, choosing instead to prioritise economic development. The BBC recently obtained a leaked copy of a ‘Draft National Counter-terrorism and Extremism Policy’ which lambasted the political leadership of Pakistan for allowing the security situation to deteriorate to its current level, and argued the activities of militants where “the most serious crisis face by the country since independence”. While it is unclear whether the authors of the document were referring to the new government or the previous, new Prime Minister Sharif is certainly yet to take major steps to counter militant activity.

While the death of foreigners in terrorist attacks still remains relatively rare, visitors to Pakistan should be aware of the extremely high risk of terrorist activity throughout the entire country. Common targets include government buildings, markets, holy sites and ‘Western’ areas. An extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained at all times.  In addition, all travel to the remote tribal regions in the North and West should be avoided.

Mali’s Elections Declared Peaceful and a “Great Success”

France’s Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault declared on Monday that elections in Mali, which were held on Sunday, were a “great success” for the country and for France, which deployed its troops to the African nation earlier this year in order to dislodge Islamist militant groups from the northern regions of the country.  A high turnout has been reported despite renewed threats from Islamist groups that polling stations would be attacked.

Thousands of United Nations troops kept the peace on Sunday as Malians voted for a new president in a bid to usher in a new period of peace and stability in the first elections to be held since a military coup helped plunge the country into chaos.  Early indications showed a record turnout in much of the country, where voters were choosing from twenty-seven candidates, all of whom have pledged to restore peace.  Preliminary results collated by journalists in polling stations suggest that former premier Ibrahim Boubacar Keita had taken a clear early lead.  The unofficial projection may indicate that Mr. Keita, 69, could win the elections after the first round.  Amongst the twenty-seven candidates, Mr. Keita is seen as the frontrunner.  His main rival is thought to be Mr. Soumaila Cisse, a former chairman of the Commission of the West African Monetary Union.  An official announcement on the first-round results however is not expected until Friday.  If no candidate winds an overall majority, then a second round run-off between the top two contenders will be scheduled for August 11.

Voting stations opened on Sunday at 8:00AM (0800 GMT) under heavy security just one day after the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is one of the main armed groups linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), had threatened to “strike” polling stations.  However there have been no reports of any serious incidents occurring.  Voting in the northern regions of the country also passed off peacefully.  In Gao, which is northern Mali’s largest city, dozens of people lined up to vote in a school near Independence Square.  Meanwhile in Timbuktu, voting went ahead after initial problems with organizations, in which many voters were unable to find their names on the voting lists.  A large portion of the worry ahead of the polls had been focused on Kidal which was occupied for five months by Tuareg separatists until a ceasefire accord allowed the Malian army to provide security earlier this month.  In the run-up to the elections, ethnic clashes between Tuareg rebels and black African left four people dead.  In turn, gunmen, though to be from the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) kidnapped five polling officials 200 kilometers (125 miles) north of Kidal.

Parliamentary Elections Go Ahead in Togo

On Friday, officials in Togo began to tally up the votes after long-delayed parliamentary elections were held on 25 July.  On Thursday, voters had queued up in order to cast their ballots in what officials have indicated were mainly peaceful elections.  The head of the African Union’s observer mission, Guinea’s Prime Minister Kabine Komara, has indicated that the election process seemed smooth throughout the early hours of voting.  The polls come after months of protests which were backed by the opposition in its bid to weaken the ruling family’s decades-long grip on power.  Final results, along with a breakdown of the number of seats won by each party in the proportional electoral system, are not expected for another several days.  However the vote is seen as an indication of what will likely happen when presidential elections are held next year, with some experts indicating that yesterday’s elections could expose weaknesses in the grip of the Ganssingbe family which has ruled the country for more than four decades.

While the African Union observer mission indicated that the election process seemed smooth, roughly two hours after polling stations were opened on Thursday, the most   prominent opposition leader in the West African nation voiced his concerns over some initial issues however he noted that he was confident that the vote would be clear.  Jean Pierre Fabre, who is running for a parliamentary seat, indicated that several polling stations had opened after the agreed time of 0700 GMT and that ballot materials had not been delivered on schedule at a number of ballot stations.  Crowds of several hundred had built up at some of the polling stations, with some complaining that their names could not be found on the voter lists.

The polls mark the latest step in the country’s transition to a democracy after Gnassingbe Eyadema’s rule from 1967 to his death in 2005, when the military installed his son Faure Gnassingbe as president.  Since 2005, Faure Gnassingbe has won elections in 2005 and 2010 however the opposition has denounced both winnings as fraudulent.  Thursday’s elections are the first legislative polls to occur since 2007, when President Gnassingbe’s party won 50 of the 81 seats.  This time, ninety-one seats will be decided.  Since 2007, the polls have been rescheduled twice as mediators struggled to bring the government and opposition to an agreement.  A total of 1,174 candidates are standing in Thursday’s elections, with 159 women among them.

Egypt Security Update

Clashes are expected on Friday, 26 July following an unusual statement by Egyptian General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi.

On 24 July, al-Sisi, gave a speech at a military graduation ceremony. In the televised speech, he said, “I urge the people to take to the streets this coming Friday to prove their will and give me, the army and police, a mandate to confront possible violence and terrorism. So that in case there was a resort to violence and terrorism, the army would have a mandate to confront this.”

Millions of Egyptians are expected to take to the streets tomorrow in support of the government mandate, as the Muslim brotherhood has been protesting daily, with escalating violence and negative economic impact since the removal of President Mohamed Morsi on 4 July.

While the call for civilian mobilisation is unusual, the reasons behind it may be two-fold. First, it is important for the Egyptian government to prove to Western authorities that they acted legitimately on behalf of the broad majority of Egyptians. The mobilisation of the Egyptians could prove, in a sense, that what the army did on 4 July was not a military-directed coup, but a civilian revolution with assistance from the military. The difference in this language means the difference between deliveries or withdrawals of vital financial aid packages, particularly from the US.

Second, the call for civilian mobilisation follows a bombing conducted in Mansoura  on 24 July, which resulted in the death of 1 office, and the injury of 19 officers and civilians. This is the first time a bomb has been detonated in Nile Valley Egypt since 3 July, and is an alarming escalation. While the military has been tolerant of peaceful and even semi-violent protests, the use of gunfire has instigated reaction. The detonation of a bomb, unusual for the region, signals an impact from outside influence, and directly threatens civil order. Intelligence from the region has indicated that weapons have been sent through the Sinai Peninsula in to Egypt, from Gaza.

Meanwhile, Interim President Adly Monsour has taken a step back from the proceedings. He must walk a fine line between providing hopes of re-establishing dialog with the Muslim Brotherhood in order to create an inclusive new government, and reassuring the West that Egypt is on a path to stability and economic improvement.

In his speech, Al-Sisi  again urged against public unrest, and called for national reconciliation. However, it is likely that a large turnout of Egyptians on Friday will give the military the “permission” they need to crack down on the Muslim Brotherhood. If reconciliation is not a conceivable option for the Brotherhood, who have rejected several opportunities to work with what they term “the false government”, then it is possible that the Egyptian military could consider, once again, driving the group underground as they had done in the 1950s.

As such, clashes and mass arrests are expected on Friday. Those travelling in the region would be advised to refrain from participation in rallies, as violence is expected. Foreigners should also be wary of unscheduled changes to protest destinations or marches between sites.

Report on Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea

Hijacks

• 16 July 2013 – Armed pirates in two speedboats approached, boarded and hijacked a Marshall Islands-flagged product tanker, the Ocean Centurion, at 0430 LT, approximately 45 nautical miles south-east of Lome, Togo.  They took hostage all the crew members on board the tanker, stole their personal belongings and ordered the Master to sail south and then north towards the Togo/Benin border where they disembarked and escaped via a speedboat, 12 nautical miles from the coastline.  The Togo Navy was informed about the hijacking and a patrol boat was dispatched which escorted the tanker to the Lome anchorage for investigation.  Two crew members on board the tanker were injured during the incident and were transferred to a clinic for medical attention.
• 14 July 2013 – Officials confirmed on Monday that pirates have seized a Malta-flagged, Turkey-owned tanker, the MV Cotton, off the coast of Port-Gentil, Gabon.  The vessel has twenty-four crew members on board, all of which are Indian nationals.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 19 July 2013 – Vanuatu-flagged, US-operates OSV, the C Viking, reported being attacked by pirates at 01:00 LT near position 04:18 N – 007:46E, Usari field, offshore Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria.  The crew members on board the OSV were mustered into the citadel; no injuries were reported.  Pirates looted the vessel, including the bridge, and destroyed some bridge equipment before departing.  This is reportedly the second time that the C Viking was attacked by pirates in the same area.
• 18 July 2013 – Duty Officer on board an anchored USA-flagged bulk carrier, the Liberty Grace, spotted an unlit skiff with 5 – 6 persons on board approaching the bulk carrier at 0150 UTC in position 06:05N – 001:17E, approximately 3 nautical miles off Lome breakwater, Togo.  The Duty Officer directed the ship’s search light towards the skiff, raised the alarm and activated the fire hoses.  The Togo Navy was called.  It was observed by the crew members on board the carrier that the robbers, who were wearing hoods pulled over their heads, were attempting to board the vessel using a pole and hook.  Three flares were fired in the direction of the skiff.  Seeing the crew members’ alertness, the robbers aborted the attempt and moved away.  During the incident, another two skiffs were observed close to the vessel.  A Togolese Navy boat later arrived on location.  The bulk carrier has been reported as safe.
• 14 July 2013 – Around twenty armed robbers in a speed boat approached and boarded a Gabon-flagged landing craft, the Renovation, while underway at 2246 UTC in position 00:29S – 008:51E, Port Gentil, Gabon.  The robbers stole the crew’s personal belongings and escaped.  Port maritime authority was notified of the incident.  No injuries to the crew members not any damage to the vessel was sustained during the incident.

Suspicious Activity 

• 10 July 2013 – Armed security personnel on board an anchored chemical tanker noticed a small boat with an unknown number of persons approaching at 0330 UTC while in position 06:17.8N – 003:21.2E, around 5.4 nautical miles south-west of Fairway Buoy, Lagos Anchorage, Nigeria.  As the boat continued its approach to within 50 metres of the vessel, the armed team fired one warning shot, resulting in the boat moving away.

Weather Analysis

• Gulf of Guinea – Southerly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

• Extended Forecast – Southerly winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.