Welcome to Russia: Crimea Declares Independence and Applies to Join Russia

Following Sunday’s referendum in Crimea, the European Union (EU) has agreed to impose travel bans and asset freezes against twenty-one officials from Russia and the Ukraine.  The EU announced its new sanctions after a meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels, with Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Linas Linkevic indicated that further measures were expected to be taken in the upcoming days.

The move comes just one day after Crimea’s referendum, in which officials indicate that 96.6% of voters backed breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia.  On Monday, Crimea declared its independence and applied to join Russia.  This is the most radical redrawing of the European map since Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia.

The Ukraine’s interim president Oleksandr Turchynov denounced the vote as a “great farce.”  Ukraine’s lawmakers also approved a partial mobilisation of the army, which is aimed at countering Russian troops’ effective seizure of Crimea.  The defence minister also insisted that Ukrainian troops would stay in the strategic Black Sea region.

Although EU officials have not released any names of the twenty-one officials, who will have travel bans and asset freezes imposed on them, they will reportedly affect top Russian ministers and presidential aids, however not Putin himself, and are mean to demonstrate the West’s united resolve to punish Kremlin for its overt show of post-Soviet might.  Despite the sanctions, Putin has signalled that he has no intentions of turning back on what he describes as his defence of ethnic Russians who have come under increasing attack from Ukrainian ultranationalists.  Other authorities in Moscow and ordinary Russians have also appeared unfazed by the threat of Western sanctions and international isolation.

The latest crisis follows the ousting on 22 February 2014 of Ukraine’s pro-Moscow president Victor Yanukovych, who had sparked months of street protests by rejecting a planned EU trade deal in favour of closer ties with Moscow.  Pro-Russian forces have been in control of Crimea since late February however Moscow has on a number of occasions stipulated that the troops are pro-Russian self-defence forces and are not under its direct control.

Most of the international community has rejected the referendum, calling it illegal because Russia had vowed to respect its neighbour’s territorial integrity under a 1994 agreement that saw Ukraine renounce its Soviet-era nuclear arms.  The White House indicated over the weekend that US President Barack Obama had warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that Washington and its allies would “never” recognize Crimea’s breakaway vote.  However the government in Crimea has announced a series of measures that are aimed at severing its ties with Ukraine.  Amongst these are seizing Ukrainian institutions and plans to set the peninsula on Moscow time.

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin will address both houses of Parliament over Crimea’s vote to leave Ukraine and become a part of Russia.  According to Ivan Melnikov, the first deputy speaker of the lower house, the State Duma, “the speech of the president with an address on Crimea has been scheduled for 3 PM (1100 GMT).  The Kremlin has confirmed the statement however the contents of Putin’s address have not been revealed.  State Duma speaker Sergei Naryshkin indicated that Russia will recognize Crimea’s independence from Ukraine in a special treaty, with lawmakers also stating that they would accelerate procedures to allow Crimea to join Russia and fast-track bills to give out Russian passports to local residents.

Examining Libya: Regionalism, Oil, Conflict and Nation Building

As Libya strives toward national stability, the nation is met by conflicts stemming from regional and tribal divisions. Last month, only 14% of eligible Libyan voters went to the polls to elect the body responsible for drafting their new constitution. In the past week, rebel held oil ports conducted illegal trade with an oil tanker, and days ago, Libya’s prime minister was ousted in a vote of no confidence. Despite the strides taken toward progress, national stability has been slowed by the tribal loyalties and the resurgence of federalist desires.

Understanding Regions and Tribes in Libya

There are over 140 tribes present in Libya, broken up by twenty major tribal groups across three Libyan states, Tripolitania in the west, Cyrenaica to the east, and Libya’s oldest province, Fezzan, in the south. A tribe is essentially a social organisation with its own ethics, system of justice, and internal politics. Tribal borders between are not easily distinguished, sometimes leading to conflict based on historical claims to territories. However the regional borders of Libya’s states have existed as early as the 7^th century BCE.

The three provinces of Libya existed as loosely connected autonomous states until King Idris passed a constitutional amendment in 1963 to abolishing the federal system in favour of a unified government. When Idris was overthrown by Gadhafi in 1969, the unification remained in place. Despite the shift in power, tribal groups were still treated as second class citizens, for example, in the southern town of Ubari in the Fezzan region, nearly 14,000 Tuareg families have been denied Libyan ID numbers, and thus have no access to state benefits. Many tribes complain of racial discrimination or poor access to government resources. As a result, tribal and regional identity often supersedes national identity. Tribal relations with their national leaders are considered matters of “foreign policy.”

Impact on Libya

In the post-Gadhafi era in Libya, tribal and regional groups have sought to regain and protect their autonomy and identity. In some cases, this desire has lead to tension between regions and the national government, and resulted in armed clashes and threats to break away from the state.

During the 2011 civil war, many tribal militias formed to support or oppose Gadhafi’s regime. In the post-Gadhafi era, the transitional government restructured some allied militias into an ersatz security apparatus. However, other militias formed during the war remained in place to secure their own tribal or regional aims.

Strife stemming from tribal and regional affiliations has become most visible since the summer of 2013. In the Fezzan region, regional and tribal militias slowed—and in some cases halted—production of oil due to disputes with the national government. In the east, a federalist group called the Cyrenaica Transitional Council (CTC) declared self-government in June 2013. The CTC desires to create an autonomous state and take control of a portion of national oil revenues.

In July, Ibrahim Jedhran became the leader of the self-styled Political Bureau of Cyrenaica. By July 2013, his group had successfully seized three oil terminals in al-Sidra, Ras Lanuf, and Zueitina. Together, these ports accounted the export of nearly 700,000 barrels of oil per day.

Federalism in the East

Libyan Prime Minster Ali Zeidan said in December 2013, “We are producing oil at perhaps a fifth of our capacity and are carrying out some limited exporting operations. The issue is that the guards [the Petroleum Facilities Guard] who were assigned to protect the oil facilities betrayed their homeland and seized control of the facilities.”

The Petroleum Facilities Guard were members of the armed militias formed to fight the Gaddafi regime, but were not disbanded. They are loyal to Jedhran and Cyrenaica, not Libya. Jedhran formed his own oil company, the Libyan Oil and Gas Corporation (LOGC). Despite battles with the Tripoli government, the Cyrenaica separatists were able to maintain control of the ports. By October 2013, Jedhan and the federalists announced a government for Cyrenaica, including a prime minister, deputy prime minister, and 24 other ministers. The Cyrenaica government is also planning to recruit and train a Cyrenaican Defence Force.

Prime Minister Zeidan declared intentions to stop vessels from trading with Jedhran’s company, issuing threats to bomb any ship that attempts to export oil without the approval of Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC). Ignoring this threat, on 6 January, 2014, the LOGC prepared to provide crude oil to Maltese flagged vessel. The Libyan navy fired on the ship, causing them to turn away.

The LOGC had not attempted trade again until Saturday (8 March), when a North Korean-flagged tanker docked in al-Sidra port and loaded 234,000 barrels of crude, worth about $36 million US. The ship, called the Morning Glory, became the first vessel to load oil from a rebel-held port. By Sunday, warships were deployed to block the Morning Glory, and Culture Minister Amin al-Habib warned that the tanker would be “turned into a pile of metal” if it tried to leave port. However, the ship successfully manoeuvred into international waters, as the small patrol boats sent to follow the ship were hindered by bad weather.

The Morning Glory’s escape served a humiliating blow to the national government in Tripoli. On Monday the Libyan parliament ordered the formation of a military force, comprised of soldiers and allied militia groups to “liberate the ports within weeks.” That same day, a no-confidence motion was approved by 124 of the 194 members of the General National Congress (GNC), and Prime Minister Zeidan was removed from office, replaced by Defence Minister Abdullah al-Thani, until a permanent replacement can be chosen within two weeks.

Can the Government Regain Control?

The inability of Libya’s national government to intervene is indicative of their lack of power.  The government has used ultimatums in an attempt to control tribes and militias, but ultimatums are largely ignored or met with violence. It appears that the tribes and militias in Libya do not have faith in the central government, as indicated by the low turnout in February’s polls. The GNC continues to work on writing a new national constitution, and hopes to have higher turnout for the referendum. However, the lack of a formalised security apparatus, failure to address militias in the region, continued avoidance of dealing with disenfranchised groups, and an emerging desire for federalism has weakened the central government.  It is likely that the three regions of Libya will undergo more duress before they can achieve consensus enough to build a sustainable national system.

Nigeria’s Launches Second Cellphone Blackout Amidst an Increase of Boko Haram Attacks

On Wednesday, officials in Nigeria re-imposed a telephone blackout on a number of areas within the country’s north-eastern Borno state, the base of Boko Haram militants who have over the past few months intensified their attacks, which have claimed scores of lives.

According to army spokesman Colonel Muhammad Dole, “GSM (Global System for Mobile Communication) services have been seized in Borno again and this is one of the sacrifices that people have to make,” adding that “there is an on going operation and we want to get it right.  We are hopeful GSM services would be restored.”  Although no further details were provided, Col. Dole noted “in the on going operation we have reached a stage whereby the cooperation of everybody is necessary in order to subdue the common enemy.”  Residents confirmed the cell phone black out, with most people waking up on Wednesday and finding that they could not longer make calls on their mobiles.  Some residents in Maiduguri, Borno’s state capital, indicated Wednesday that if the phone blackout would restore law and order, then they backed the move, however some are doubting whether or not the military would achieve this desire goal.  One local resident stated “when they seized the GSM network last year, the terrorists were not perturbed, they kept killing people.  GSM services were only restored when the terrorists attacked military bases in December.”

Phone services were initially frozen last May until December in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe after the government imposed a state of emergency.

While speaking to reporters, Col. Dole also thanked the youth vigilantes, also known as civilian JTF (Joint Task Force) for their “unprecedented support to the military” in the on-going offensive against Islamists.

Despite an enhanced military presence in the northern region of Nigeria, since last May, more than 1,000 people have been killed.   Violence by Boko Haram militants have been raging in Nigeria since 2009, and has claimed thousands of lives however in recent weeks, the militant group’s campaign has been particularly ferocious, with some 500 people killed in suspected Islamist attacks since the start of the year.  Worst hit by the attacks are villages in remote and rural areas near Borno’s border with Cameroon.

Meanwhile officials and eyewitnesses in Katsina have reported that at least sixty-nine people have been killed in attacks on villages located in the northwestern state.  Reports have indicated that the attacks occurred Wednesday.

Witnesses reported Thursday that attackers rode motorcycles into villages in broad daylight and killed whomever they found.   While this attacks is just the latest incident to hit northern Nigeria, police officials in the state have indicated that the attack is not linked to Islamist militant group Boko Haram, which is mainly active further east in Borno, but instead appears to have been carried out by ethnic Fulani cattle herders who have a history of tension with local farmers.  According to state police chief Hurdi Mohammed, “the victims include men, women and children.  Rescue teams are still combing nearby bushes to search for more bodies.  Local MP Abdullahi Abbas Machika indicated that forty-seven people were buried in one village alone in Katsina state after Wednesday’s attack.

The attack in Katsina state comes as President Goodluck Jonathan visits the state to commission some government projects.

G7 Warns Russia on “Annexing” Crimea

On Wednesday, days ahead of a planned referendum, leaders of the G7 group of nations called on Russia to stop its efforts to “annex” Ukraine’s Crimea region, stating that if Russia takes such a step, they would “take further action, individually and collectively.”  The G7 leaders also indicated that they would not recognize the results of a referendum in Crimea, which will be held this weekend, to decide on whether to split from Ukraine and join Russia.  Meanwhile, Ukraine’s national security chief has warned of a major Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders.

The European Union (EU), along with the Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations, which includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, urged Russia to “cease all efforts to change the status of Crimea.”  A statement released by the White House indicated, “in addition to its impact on the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea could have grave implications for the legal order that protects unity and sovereignty of all states.”  According to officials in the US, Sunday’s referendum has “no legal effect” as it is in “direct violation” of Ukraine’s constitution.  Officials added “given the lack of adequate preparation and the intimidating presence of Russian troops, it would also be a deeply flawed process which would have no moral force.”

The G7 leaders have repeated their calls for Russia to de-escalate the crisis by withdrawing its troops from Crimea, to talk directly with Kiev and to use international mediators in order to “address any legitimate concerns it may have.”  Meanwhile European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso indicated that he hoped EU countries would keep their “very united and firm position because we don’t want to see, one century after the First World War, exactly the same kind of behaviour of countries annexing other countries.”

Other European leaders have also weighed in on the on going crisis.  Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that it may be time for the EU “to consider the possibility of having second phase sanctions” against Russia.  During a joint news conference with Mr Tusk, German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that the EU could sign the “political part” of a long-awaited agreement on closer ties with Ukraine later this month.  In a further public indication of Western support for Ukraine’s new leadership, US President Barack Obama is set to meet with interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk later in Washington.

Despite the looming referendum, diplomatic efforts with Russia are continuing.  US Secretary of State John Kerry has stated that he will travel to London to hold talks with Minister Sergei Lavron on Friday.  According to the Kerry, he will present him “with a series of options” for resolving the crisis.  France’s President Francois Hollande has also spoken by telephone with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, indicating that both agreed to “continue the discussion” on resolving the crisis.   Despite Russia indicating that it may want to continue diplomatic discussions with the West, troop movements in Crimea demonstrate the Russia is unlikely to back down despite threats of sanctions.

Ukraine’s national security chief Andriy Parubiy indicated Wednesday that Moscow had not withdrawn its troops after carrying out military exercises near Ukraine’s eastern and southern frontiers last month.  He further noted that the Russian army “is only two to three hours” from Kiev, adding that Ukraine’s “units are positioned to repel attacks from any direction.”  Sources have indicated that Russian troops have been seen massing on Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders, with Ukrainian officials describing the situation as “critical.”  He has accused Moscow of sending “subversive agents” into those areas to try to create a pre-text to deploy troops in the same way it has done in Crimea.   Mr Parubiy has also indicated that Kiev’s parliament will vote on Thursday to establish a National Guard of 20,000 people, recruited from activists involved in the recent pro-Western protests as well as former military academies, in order to strengthen Ukraine’s defences.  He indicated that the National Guard would be deployed to “protect state borders, general security and prevent ‘terrorist activities.’”

Crisis Timeline:

• 21 November 2013 – President Victor Yanukovych abandons deal on closer ties with the EU in favour of closer co-operation with Russia
• December 2013 – Pro-EU protesters occupy Kiev city hall and Independence Square.
• 20 February 2014 – At least 88 people are killed in 48 hours of bloodshed in Kiev.
• 21 February 2014 – President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders.
• 22 February 2014 – President Yanukovych flees Kiev.  Parliament votes to remove him and sets presidential elections for 25 May.
• 27 – 28 February 2014 – Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in Crimean capital Simeferopol
• 1 March 2014 – Russian parliament approves President Vladimir Putin’s request to use Russian forces in Ukraine.
• 6 March 2014 – Crimea’s parliament asks to join Russia and sets a referendum for 16 March.

Ahead of a Referendum, Ukraine’s Crimea Votes for Full Independence

On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula voted for full independence from Ukraine ahead of a referendum to join Russia.  Meanwhile, France has threatened sanctions against Moscow, which could be implemented as early as this week.

Yanukovych Remains Defiant 

The latest escalation, in what has developed into Europe’s worst crisis in decades, came moments after ousted pro-Kremlin leader Victor Yanukovych defiantly vowed to return to Kiev from Russia, declaring that he was still the leader of the former Soviet country.  Speaking to reporters in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, Yanukovych, in what is his first public appearance since February 28, stated “I remain not just the sole legitimate president of Ukraine but also commander-in-chief,” adding “as soon as the circumstances allow – and I am sure there is not long to wait – I will without doubt return to Kiev.”

In light of the upcoming referendum, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned that if Moscow failed to respond to Western proposals on the standoff, sanctions against Russia could come as early as this week.  On Tuesday, Western officials are also expected to meet in London in order to finalize a list of Russian officials who may face asset freezes and travel restrictions over their role in endangering the sovereignty of Europe’s largest state.

Independence and Referendum

On Tuesday, Crimea’s parliamentary assembly took another dramatic step by issuing a declaration proclaiming the region’s full independence from Kiev rule.  The body had earlier voted to actually join Russia, with the latest move appearing to be primarily aimed at creating a legal framework for becoming a part of Russia as a sovereign state.

Crimea has been a tinderbox since Russian forces seized control of the Black Sea peninsula, which has been home to its Black Sea Fleet since the 18^th century, with help of Kremlin-backed militias days after Yanukovych fled Ukraine last month in response to three months of deadly unrest.  The strategic region’s self-declared rulers are recruiting volunteers to fight Ukrainian soldiers while Russia’s parliament on Tuesday prepared legislation that would simplify the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea after Sunday’s vote.  However the pro-European leaders in Kiev have rejected the referendum and are appealing to Western powers for both diplomatic backing and pressure on Moscow to release its troops stronghold on the rugged peninsula of two million people.

NATO Launches Surveillance

Meanwhile NATO announced Monday that it will deploy AWACS reconnaissance aircraft, which will overfly Poland and Romania, as part of alliance efforts to monitor the crisis in Ukraine.  The Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) will fly missions from their home base in Geilenkirchen, Germany, where seventeen are housed, and from Waddington in Britain.  The AWACS aircraft are one of the most sophisticated command and control vehicles in the NATO armoury, capable of monitoring huge swathes of airspace, with diplomatic sources indicating that the AWACS were routinely deployed and on that count, there was nothing unusual in their use in this case.    However a diplomatic source has indicated that it is unusual that the deployment has been announced publicly.

According to a NATO official, the flights “will enhance the Alliance’s situational awareness,” adding “all AWACS reconnaissance flights will take place solely over Alliance territory.”  The official also noted “this decision is an appropriate and responsible action in line with NATO’s decision to intensify our on-going assessment of the implications of this crisis for Alliance security.”  Flying over Poland and Romania the AWACS planes should be able to see far into Ukraine’s airspace.

As the Ukraine crisis has deepened, with Russian intervention on the Crimean peninsula, former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe have become increasingly nervous at President Vladimir Putin’s apparent willingness to up the ante.  The situation risks becoming more difficult if Crimea, which is now controlled by pro-Russian leaders, votes in a March 16 referendum to break all links with Kiev and become a part of Russia.  Poland and the Baltic states especially have taken a hard line as events have unfolded and last week, Warsaw called for urgent consultations with its NATO allies on the situation.  In response to Putin’s move into Crimea, which is home to a large Russian-speaking population and the Black Sea fleet, the US is sending a dozen F-16 fighter jets and 300 service personnel to Poland as part of a training exercise.  Last week, Washington also deployed six additional F-15 fighter jets to step up NATO air patrols over the Baltic states.