MS Risk Blog

Yemen Declares Force Majeure, Ban on Maritime Navigation

On Monday, Yemen declared force majeure on the country’s sole liquefied natural gas plant, citing security concerns. In an emailed statement on Monday, Yemen LNG Co. stated, “Due to further degradation of the security situation in the vicinity of Balhaf, Yemen LNG has decided to stop all LNG producing and exporting operations and start evacuation of the site personnel. The plant will remain in a preservation mode.” Tribal fighters seized posts outside the city of Balhaf in south-eastern Yemen near the plant after soldiers fled. Yemen LNG processes and exports gas from the Marib area. The project has three long-term sales contracts with GDF Suez SA, Korea Gas Corp. and Total SA. With a stake of nearly 40 percent, Total is the biggest shareholder in the project. Others include Hunt Oil Co. and SK Innovation Co., the website shows.

Houthi fighters have seized areas near the LNG facility, however they have not attacked the plant itself, according to residents. Yemen’s LNG output comprises nearly 2.2% of the world’s total liquefied natural gas, according to data from the International Group of LNG Importers. The halt of operations is expected to have any immediate, significant impact on the market. More worrying is the transport of oil through Yemen’s strategic location on Bab el-Mandab Strait, which at its narrowest point is 18 miles wide. The strait is a critical chokepoint in international shipping; according to US figures, over 3.4 million barrels of oil per day passed through the waterway in 2013.

As of Monday, Yemen has banned entry into its territorial waters. Commercial and military vessels cannot enter the designated zones without authorization from the Yemeni government. Currently, only emergency goods and medical aid vessels will be allowed entry into Yemen, and must submit to search and approval by the coalition forces.

The decision came after several Iranian attempts were discovered to smuggle aid to Houthi rebels and militias loyal Saleh, according to Yemen’s Defence Minister. The ban is being enforced by the Saudi-led, anti-Houthi coalition, which is blocking access to ports in areas believed to be under Houthi control. BIMCO has advised all vessels to transit the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea at least 12 nautical miles outside Yemeni territorial waters when possible.

Marine insurer Skuld has stated that a significant number of reports have indicated that the Saudi-led forces have begun are enforcing the blockade, with emphasis on ports which may be under the control of the Houthi-led forces in the north and west of Yemen. There is a blockade of vessel traffic from Bab Al Mandab to Yemeni territorial water, with particular focus on vessels that may have recently called at Iranian or Iraqi ports.

An urgent member advisory from Skuld P&I Club yesterday warned: “Members with vessels at Yemen, or proceeding to Yemen need to urgently review the situation in the light of this development.” They have further advised any vessel currently berthed in a Yemeni port to consider raising its ISPS level to 3. Ships still intending to go to Yemen should review their charterparty terms and inform hull, war and P&I insurers.

Coalition warships are particularly focusing on vessels that may have called recently at ports in Iran or Iraq. UK P&I Club said that coalition forces had boarded several of its members’ vessels. Shipowners and operators – including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Evergeen are diverting to safer ports in the region. Container ships, bulkers and tankers are all said to be affected.

Last week, BIMCO stated, “If a port is taken/held by the Houthis and a ship is seen to be supplying the rebels, the ship could be at risk from air strikes or indeed naval action from the coalition.” Insurers are said to be refusing to cover vessels berthing in Yemen’s ports. Dryad Maritime has recommended shipowners, operators, and masters give Yemen “as wide a berth as possible”. Skuld told its members to “instruct the master to prioritise the safety of the crew and vessel”.

The escalating tension has increased the likelihood of an incident at sea between Iran and the coalition or international forces. MS Risk advises merchant vessels to be aware and vigilant to this threat – these tensions have led to increased naval boardings and inspections with little or no notice. MS Risk continues to advise vessels to avoid all Yemen ports until further notice. We continue to advise vessel operators to notify their insurers prior to sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb. Any vessels currently in the Gulf of Aden are advised to remain vigilant at all times. Pirate Action Groups (PAG’s) are likely to continue to operate in this region and may easily be mistaken for refugees fleeing the chaos in Yemen.

Pakistan Votes Against Military Support in Yemen

On April 10, after five days of debate, Pakistan’s lawmakers decided against offering military support to Saudi Arabia’s campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Although Saudi Arabia had previously asked Pakistan to contribute various military assets, including aircraft, troops and ships, to the campaign, a joint session of the Senate and National assembly has instead adopted a resolution favouring neutrality. “The parliament of Pakistan expresses serious concern on the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in Yemen and its implications for peace and stability of the region”, the resolution said. “[It} desires that Pakistan should maintain neutrality in the Yemen conflict so as to be able to play a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis.” In trying to understand why Pakistan has voted against helping an old ally, three factors must be considered: military, religious and economic.

First, this resolution is broadly consistent with prevailing military opinion in Pakistan, which considers that its resources, already thinly stretched by on-going counter-insurgency operations in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, would be unable to sustain a protracted campaign in Yemen. It also reflects an undercurrent of battle fatigue. With the Afghan war drawing to a close, Pakistani politicians are unwilling to commit themselves to another drawn out foreign war, which experts believe might spiral out of control into a proxy war between Tehran and Riyadh. Second, concerns have been raised in Pakistan over the advisability of becoming involved in a conflict between a coalition of Sunni-majority countries and Shia Houthi rebels. In recent years, there have been numerous attacks by Sunni militants against Pakistan’s Shia minority and it is feared that becoming embroiled in this conflict will further inflame the country’s sectarian tensions.  The third factor which has caused Islamabad to vote in favour of neutrality is its need to maintain economic ties with Iran. For some time, energy-starved Pakistan has been trying to grow closer to Iran, even building a pipeline to pump much needed Iranian natural gas into the country. Although Tehran has been accused by the Saudi government of backing the Shiite rebels, Islamabad would be unwilling to take any action which might compromise their relationship with the Islamic Republic.

These factors, amongst others, have prevented Nawaz Sharif from being able to answer the Saudi government’s call for help. At first glance, this might seem like an awkward situation for the Pakistani prime minister to find himself in. After all, his administration has benefited enormously from the kingdom’s largesse, including a US$1.5 billion “gift” from the Saudi government that was used to stabilise the rupee against the US dollar. It may, however, have been a calculated move on Sharif’s part to avoid getting caught up in a power struggle by two powerful and important allies. By hand-balling this decision to the Pakistani parliament, Sharif’s government has been able to hide behind a smokescreen generated by democratic process. Rather than becoming involved in a costly and bloody war, Pakistan is now committed to playing a mediating role in the conflict, while promising to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with Saudi Arabia in the unlikely event that its territorial integrity be violated or its holy sites in Mecca and Medina come under threat.

Despite Sharif’s canny political manoeuvring, Pakistan’s commitment to neutrality may be tested in the coming days. Senior ministers and public servants from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have voiced their criticism over Pakistan’s decision. “If Pakistan doesn’t take a position, that means they’re just a bystander,” said Abdulaziz bin Abdullah al-Ammar, senior adviser in Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Islamic Affairs, in an interview on Sunday. If pushed, Sharif may be forced to exercise his constitutional authority over the Pakistani military and override the parliament’s decision. He and his government will doubtless hope that the conflict is resolved long before he is required to make such a potentially disastrous decision.

Lowest Number of New Ebola Cases Recorded Since May 2014

According to the latest figures released by the World Health Organization (WHO) this week, data shows the lowest weekly cases of Ebola since May 2014.

In the week leading up to 5 April, a total of 30 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were recorded. This is the lowest weekly total since the third week of May 2014. Of the total 55 districts in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone that have reported at least one confirmed case of EVD since the outbreak began, 35 have not reported a case in over six weeks.

While Liberia and Sierra Leone have begun to decommission some treatment centres, the WHO has warned that there has been an increase in unsafe burials, particularly in Guinea, which could lead to more cases.

There have been a total of 25,515 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 10,572 deaths. In the past 21 days, a total of 191 EVD cases were recorded in the three countries.

Liberia

Since recording one Ebola case in late March, Liberia has not recorded any new cases of the deadly disease since. The last confirmed case passed away on 27 March and Liberia is currently conducting the 42-day countdown to being officially declared free of the disease.

Guinea

Guinea recorded 21 cases of EVD during this reporting period, compared to 57 confirmed the previous week. A total of six Guinean prefectures reported at least one confirmed case of EVD during this reporting period, a decline from the 7 prefectures that reported a case in the previous week. Affected prefectures are in the western area and include the capital city Conakry, which recorded 8 confirmed cases during this reporting period. The nearby prefectures of Coyah (1 case), Dubreka (1 case); Forecariah (6 cases), Fria (1 case) and Kindia (4 cases) also reported cases.

Sierra Leone 

Sierra Leone reported a fifth consecutive weekly decrease from 25 confirmed cases in the week leading to 29 March, to 9 during this reporting period. Over this reporting period, Sierra Leone reported zero cases on 3 days.

Cases were reported in four western districts: Kambia (2 cases), Port Loko (1 case), Western Area Rural (1 case) and Western Area Urban (5 cases), which includes the capital city Freetown.

ISIS Cyberattack on TV5Monde; FBI issues warning

An “extremely powerful” cyberattack claimed by supporters of Islamic State of Iraq and il Sham (ISIS) has left French broadcaster TV5Monde working to regain control of its 11 news channels and websites for three hours. The attack occurred around 10 pm local time. Hackers took down the television channels and posted material on the broadcaster’s Facebook and Twitter feeds. The station’s network director, Yves Bigot, said operations were “severely damaged.” The station’s programming and Facebook page are now back up, but its website remains under maintenance.

The hackers posted documents on the TV5Monde Facebook page which they claim are the identity cards of relatives of French soldiers involved in anti-Islamic State operations. The hackers also posted threats against the troops. France is part of the international coalition fighting against ISIS insurgents.

TV5Monde, which broadcasts around the world, is working with police and national security to determine how their security was breached. It is not yet known how the group accessed station operations, but it appears to have been conducted by the “Islamic State Hacking Division.” The hackers referred to themselves as the “CyberCaliphate” on TV5Monde’s Facebook page, which also took credit for the recent hacking of US military servers.

The station has restored broadcast of one signal across all of their channels, however they cannot “send out pre-recorded broadcasts nor restart the production of our news shows,” according to Bigot. He added that it could take days for broadcasts to return to normal, adding that the attack must have required “weeks” of planning. The station is broadcast in nations around the world, including the US, Canada and Britain.

A day before the attack on TV5Monde, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) warned that attackers claiming to be sympathetic to the extremist group ISIS are targeting websites that have vulnerable WordPress plugins.

WordPress is a website hosting system which also has a community third-party developers who have created some 37,000 plugins. Occasionally, security vulnerabilities in one of the plugins can put a large number of websites at risk by allowing hackers to gain unauthorized access, inject scripts, or install malware on the affected sites. The attackers have reportedly hit news organizations, religious institutions, and commercial and government websites. The hackers have defaced websites that share some of the common WordPress plugins with vulnerabilities that are easily exploited, the FBI said.

The FBI advisory states, “Although the defacements demonstrate low-level hacking sophistication, they are disruptive and often costly in terms of lost business revenue and expenditures on technical services to repair infected computer systems.” The attackers have voiced support for ISIS; they are likely conducting attacks in order to gain notoriety.

On Tuesday, the security company Sucuri issued an advisory for a flaw it found in the WP-Super-Cache plugin. The plugin is utilised by up to a million WordPress sites.  The vulnerability in the plugin could allow an attacker to add a new administrator to a site, or create a “backdoor” using WordPress’s theme edition tools.

The same day as the FBI warning was issued, The homepage of AustismIreland.ie showed a photograph of a soldier with their face covered, alongside the words “ISLAMIC STATE HACKERS”

“Hacked By Moroccanwolf and ABdellah elmaghribi ~ Moroccan Attacker ~ I love IS”.

The image remained on the site for six hours before it was removed. CEO of Irish Autism Action, Kevin Whelan, confirmed that the hack “appears to have happened to a number of sites” and was not directed at the charity in particular. It is likely that the hackers scanned several websites to identify vulnerable sites, and conducted hacks at random. The Dublin Rape Crisis Centre were also part of a worldwide hack affecting users of a vulnerable WordPress plugin.

Hostage Rescued After Nearly Four Years in Captivity

On Monday, French Special Forces rescued a Dutch civilian who was kidnapped nearly four years ago in Mali by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) militants.

France’s defense ministry confirmed Monday that Sjaad Rijke, 54, who was kidnapped in Timbuktu in November 2011, was freed during “military action carried out by the French army’s Special Forces,” adding that “this combat action has also led to the capture of several individuals.” Rijke was freed in a pre-dawn raid. He was temporarily transferred to a base in Tessalit before arriving in the Malian capital Bamako on Tuesday. Sources close to the case have disclosed that the operation occurred near Tessalit, in Mali’s far north region near the border with Algeria. According to Lieutenant Colonel Michel Sabatier, a spokesman for Barkhane, which is France’s counter-insurgency operation in the region, French forces killed two militants and captured two others in the operation.

Gunmen had stormed into Rijke’s hotel in Timbuktu in 2011, capturing him along with a South African and a Swedish national, both of who are still being held. Rijke’s wife managed to escape the attack. In November 2014, AQIM released a video of Rijke, making a statement on the 1000^th day of his captivity.

Romanian National Kidnapped in Burkina Faso

On Saturday afternoon, unidentified gunmen kidnapped a Romanian security officer from a manganese mining project in northern Burkina Faso, near the border with Mali’s northern desert region.

According to security officials, the kidnapping took place at the Tambao project. Souleymane Mihin, Burkina Faso managing director for Pan African Minerals, confirmed the incident, stating “there was an attack on one of our patrols. They kidnapped the Romanian leading the patrol. The driver was wounded in the foot. A gendarme was seriously injured.” Late Saturday, the Romanian foreign ministry issued a statement confirming the kidnapping of a Romanian national and disclosing that a crisis cell has been set up in order to handle the case.

A Burkinabe security source has revealed that five gunmen were involved in the attack and that they, along with the hostage, were heading towards the nearby border with northern Mali. This has resulted in Burkinabe authorities indicating that they are planning to cross into Mali and Niger in search of the kidnappers. A Burkinabe minister disclosed Sunday “search operations are continuing. We are talking to our neighbours Mali and Niger to obtain rights to their territory in order to get our hands on the kidnappers. This is an area which borders the two countries, so the sweep will roll out in both directions.” Burkina Faso’s Regiment of Presidential Security, which is an elite secret service that specializes in anti-terrorism, has been deployed to Tambao in a bid to strengthen an army detachment, which arrived in the town on Saturday. Residents in Tambao have disclosed that security forces have begun “intensive searches” of vehicles in towns across the north, adding, “police are systematically searching vehicles.”