MS Risk Blog

Burundian Court Backs President’s Third Term

On Tuesday, Burundi’s constitutional court confirmed that the country’s president Pierre Nkurunziza can run for a third term in office, a decision that has led to renewed protests in the capital.

Under the current constitution, presidents can only be elected to two terms in office, however supporters of President Nkurunziza argued that his first term, which was appointed by parliament, does not count. The constitutional court’s vice president had earlier reportedly fled the country, citing “death threats.” Reports have indicated that while Sylvere Nipagaritse disclosed that most of his colleagues believed that the third term was unconstitutional, they were under pressure to change their minds. The president’s spokesman, Gervais Abayeho, however has denied these reports, stating that there were no threats or pressure placed on the judges. He further disclosed that their discussions were private so there was no way that individuals could be singled out for their views.

Shortly after the constitutional court made its ruling on Tuesday, more than five hundred protesters went to the streets of Musaga, which is a southern suburb of the capital Bujumbura. On the ground sources disclosed that three people were killed in protests in Musaga on Monday. Live rounds have also been fired near the US embassy at people demonstrating against the third-term bid. Further protests in the capital and across the country are likely to continue over the coming days. The presidential elections are due to take place next month.

The court’s approval of a third term in office comes just days after United States Secretary of State John Kerry urged President Nkurunziza to abandon his re-election bid. Speaking to reporters Monday during a visit to Kenya, Mr Kerry stated, “we are deeply concerned about President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision, which flies directly in the face of the constitution of this country.”

Yemen Security Brief- 5 May

On 3 May, at least 20 troops from the Saudi-led coalition came ashore in Aden on what military officials called a “reconnaissance” mission. Their nationalities are unknown. The troops landed in a central area between Aden’s neighbourhood of al-Mansoura and the airport. It is unclear whether they arrived by boat or helicopter. This marks the first ground landing of troops since the coalition began their air campaign against the Houthi rebels on 26 March. The troops carried assault rifles and topography equipment and had access to at least four vehicles.

The objective of the reconnaissance mission appears two-fold: first, Yemeni military officials say the coalition troops will train forces loyal to President Hadi, who has been in exile in Riyadh since March. Yemeni officials said that streamlining the militiamen fighting against the Houthis in Aden would be a critical step in developing a coherent force. This would aid coalition ground forces should they send troops into the region. Second, the troops will try to identify an area that could serve as a “green zone” — an area from which Hadi’s exiled government can operate upon their return to Yemen. Among the most likely locations is the the al-Bureqah area west of Aden.

Saudi officials denied that a major ground operation was under way, or that it had put non-Yemeni forces on the ground in Aden. However the kingdom has warned on more than one occasion that a ground operation could follow air campaign. Reports suggest that Egypt will be a likely participant should any ground offensive take place in Yemen.

The troops landed amid intense fighting in Aden. Days of heavy clashes have been reported in central districts of Mualla and Khor Maksar, near the main commercial port, as well as in the city’s north, around a military camp and the airport. Houthi reinforcements were reportedly sent in from al-Dhalea and Abyan to fight the southern militias.

On Monday, the Saudi-led coalition targeted several airports across Yemen. The coalition reportedly conducted 150 strikes on Aden’s airport. Airstrikes also targeted airports in Hodeida and Sana’a. In downtown Sana’a, fighter jets struck al-Sabeen Square. The square was once where Yemen held military parades. The area was targeted to prevent the Houthi militants from using it as an airport for Iranian planes. Further strikes were aimed at the Houthi stronghold of Saada, and in Marib, where the coalition airdropped weapons to tribes allied to Hadi’s government.

Meanwhile, Senegal announced it would contribute troops to back the Saudi-led coalition. Senegalese Foreign Affairs Minister Mankeur Ndiaye said his country is sending 2,100 soldiers to help back the Saudi-led intervention. Senegal becomes the first sub-Saharan African country to contribute soldiers to the effort. The nation has received significant financial investments from Saudi Arabia in recent years. Senegalese President Macky Sall met last month with the Saudi king, who sought troop contributions at that time.

The international monitoring group Human Rights Watch (HRW) says that credible evidence show that the Saudi-led coalition “used banned cluster munitions supplied by the United States in airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen.” They add, “Cluster munitions pose long-term dangers to civilians and are prohibited by a 2008 treaty adopted by 116 countries, though not Saudi Arabia, Yemen, or the United States.” HRW evidence since mid-April shows that these munitions were used in coalition airstrikes in the Saada governorate, the Houthi stronghold bordering Saudi Arabia. The bombs appeared to land on a cultivated plateau, within 600 meters of several dozen buildings in four to six village. Saudi Arabia’s coalition spokesman was not immediately available to comment on the report, but had previously stated that the kingdom was not using cluster bombs.

The fighting in Yemen has left more than 1,200 people dead, mostly civilians, and at least 300,000 residents have been displaced. In the midst of a humanitarian crisis, the UN has warned that key infrastructure, including water supplies, food, health services and telecommunications, are on the verge of breaking down due to a major fuel shortage. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) issued a statement of extreme concern about the severe damage caused by recent coalition attacks on airports. The attacks have obstructed the delivery of humanitarian assistance and movement of humanitarian personnel. The joint statement says:

“The disruption of the key logistic infrastructure, including airports, sea ports, bridges and roads are having alarming consequences on the civilian population, and the humanitarian situation has now become catastrophic. Checkpoints by the different armed factions have obstructed the delivery of urgent medical supplies to hospitals and have prevented patients and wounded to access essential healthcare.”

Johannes van der Klaauw of the UN warned that the absence of fuel imports could further worsen the situation:

“Without fuel hospitals can’t work, ambulances can’t go out. You can’t have the water system working because water has to be pumped. The telecommunication network risks shutting down […] if something is not done in the next few days in terms of bringing fuel and food into the country, Yemen is going to come to a complete stand-still.”

On Monday, newly appointed Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said coalition countries were considering a cease-fire to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid. He said the coalition is seeking specific places to deliver humanitarian assistance, during which there will be a halt of all air operations. Al-Jubeir also warned the Houthis against exploiting any possible halt in airstrikes, saying the kingdom will resume airstrikes over any “violations” impeding the humanitarian efforts.

Today, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states will meet in Riyadh to discuss the ongoing regional crises, including Yemen. French President Francois Hollande will also attend, the first foreign leader to attend a GCC Summit since its inception in 1981.

Islamic extremism in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Terrorist attack on a police station in Zvornik

Tensions are high in Bosnia and Herzegovina this week following an attack on a police station in Zvornik, the Serbian-dominated Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, last week. The attack, which is being referred to as a terrorist attack, carried out on April 27, left one policeman dead and two injured. The attacker, who has been identified as Nerdin Ibric, a Bosniak man (Muslim Bosnian), was killed in the shootout with police officers at the station. The effects from the attack have had a ripple effect across Bosnia, reopening wounds and creating unease far from the town where the actual shooting took place.

According to Republika Srpska officials, the local man from Sapna, near Zvornik, parked his car in front of the police station, armed with a rifle and other weapons, got out of his vehicle and immediately started shooting at policemen, while shouting “Allahu Akbar”, Arabic for “God is Great”. Police have subsequently arrested two suspects in connection with the terrorist attack, whilst several locations in the Zvornik area were raided by teams from the State Investigation and Protection Agency, SIPA, as well as local and entity police. However, the ramifications of this attack spread far wider than the small northeastern border town of Zvornik.

Before the war broke out in Bosnia in 1992, an estimated 60 percent of Zvornik’s population was Bosniak. However, following years of ethnic cleansing and expulsion in the region, as well as a massacre of the town’s non-Serbian citizens by Serb paramilitary groups at the beginning of the Bosnian war in 1992, the ethnic demographic of the town is very different today. After the war, in 1995, Bosnia was divided into two politically autonomous regions: Republika Srpska (the Serbian dominated entity) and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (primarily inhabited by Bosniaks, Bosnian Croatians, and Serbians). With both entity governments linked by a central government in the capital, Sarajevo.

Tensions between the two political entities have already been strained of late, as after six months of political wrangling, Bosnia and Herzegovina only just secured its State-level and Federation entity governments. In April, the leaders of Bosnia’s ruling parties finally approved new State and Federation entity governments, after months of political infighting, administrative problems, and procedural shortcomings had blocked the formation of new governments on multiple levels. Whilst the entities of Bosnia and Herzegovina have been politically strained, so have the populations, and a terrorist attack like the one in Zvornik has only served to cause greater concern over the threat of Islamic extremism emanating from the region. As such, the attack has reopened unhealed wounds of ethnic violence across the country and raised security concerns among Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs alike.

Roughly 40 percent of Bosnia’s population is Muslim and although Bosnia’s Muslim population is known to practice a moderate form of Islam, an influx in Bosnians traveling to Syria and Iraq to join “Islamic State” in recent years has raised concerns about Islamist extremists carrying out terrorist attacks on home soil. Unfortunately, the attack in Zvornik is not Bosnia’s first taste of Islamic extremism this year. Among other smaller incidents, Bosnia’s northern village of Gornja Maoca, in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is home to followers of the “radical Wahabbi” branch of Islam, recently made headlines and heightened fears of Islamic radicalization of Bosnia’s citizens. Earlier this year, images of the village displaying Islamic State (IS) flags and symbols caused national and regional unrest. Therefore, last week’s terrorist attack in Zvornik coupled with alarming possibilities of Islamic extremism in the country has strained relations between Bosnia’s entities. Moreover, it has not only heightened tensions in the country, but Bosnia and Herzegovina’s regional neighbors are well aware that it has dangerous potential to threaten ethnic relations in the region and indeed, the stability of the Western Balkans.

A week on from the terrorist attack in Zvornik, the ethnic and political tensions that were exasperated by the attack are beginning to give way to major security concerns. As the local, entity, and state police, institutions, and international experts consider ways to improve Bosnia and Herzegovina’s current security situation.

French Soldiers Accused of Rape in Central African Republic

The French government confirmed this week that authorities in France are investigating claims that French peacekeepers operating in Central African Republic (CAR) sexually abused children. French President Francois Hollande has vowed to “show no mercy” if French peacekeepers in the CAR are found guilty of raping children in exchange for food and money.

On Wednesday, a statement released by the French defense ministry disclosed that the French government “was made aware at the end of July 2014 by the UN’s high commission for human rights of accusations by children that they had been sexually abused by French soldiers.” The statement further disclosed that Paris prosecutors opened an investigation shortly afterwards, adding, “the defense ministry has taken and will take the necessary measures to allow the truth to be found… If the facts are proven, the strongest penalties will be imposed on those responsible for what would be an intolerable attack on soldiers’ values.”

Officials at the ministry have disclosed that the abuse was alleged by around ten children and reportedly occurred at a centre for internally displaced people near the airport of the capital Bangui between December 2013 and June 2014. Sources have reported that children as young as nine were involved and that some were abused in exchange for food and money. An internal UN report has suggested that troops from France, Chad and Equatorial Guinea are implicated. The UN report suggests that at least 13 French soldiers, two soldiers from Equatorial Guinea and three Chadian troops were involved in the alleged abuse. According to a French judicial source, some of the French soldiers have been identified however none have been questioned on the matter. Officials from Chad and Equatorial Guinea have not yet commented on the allegations.

UN spokesman Farhan Haq has confirmed that its rights investigators conducted a probe last year after “serious allegations” of child abuse and sexual exploitation by French troops had emerged, adding that it has suspended a staff member for leaking the report in July.

If these allegations are confirmed, this will likely have severe implications on the French mission deployed in the CAR, as well as on the Central African country, which continues to struggle to maintain security.

Human Smuggling in Libya

30 April— Last week, the European Union agreed to triple the funding dedicated to patrolling the Mediterranean for illegal migrant ships. The EU has also doubled the emergency aid to front-line member states Italy, Greece and Malta, which deal with a massive influx of migrants coming across the Mediterranean. The new allocation of 50 million euros per year will be dedicated to reception centres for migrants, medical aid, or additional staff dealing with the influx. It is part of an overall EU fund for migration and asylum issues.

The EU also will send more naval ships from its member states to the region stem the growing migration crisis that has left countless dead as they seek to reach Europe from Africa. The governments also agreed to develop plans to combat the smuggling rings that have made a lucrative trade of bringing people to Europe. The UK offered to send a warship to patrol between Sicily and the Libyan coast. Germany, France, Ireland and other nations have offered ships as well.

EU leaders said the Frontex mission— which secures the external borders of the union, including from illegal immigration, human trafficking and terrorist infiltration— would now have the authority to conduct rescue missions in international waters.

The decision was made days after one of the deadliest migrant shipwrecks in the sea. Last Sunday, a ship carrying 550 people capsized. The Italian Coast guard recovered 9 bodies and 144 survivors. Nearly 400 people reportedly remain missing. If this number is confirmed, it will be the single worst refugee catastrophe in history. Yet despite the dangerous incident, the next day, ships from the EU’s Triton rescue programme clashed with people smugglers over the rescue of 250 migrants 110 kilometres off Libya. The smugglers reportedly fired on the Icelandic Coast Guard vessel Tyr in their attempt to recover the empty wooden boat from which the migrants had been rescued. An Italian tugboat was trying to take the wooden boat in tow when the smugglers raced in on a speedboat and sped away with the empty migrant boat.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that since the start of the year and 21 April, approximately 1,750 have perished in their attempts to illegally migrate to Europe over the Mediterranean. In the same period in 2014, that number was 56. Joel Millman, a spokesman for the IOM, says that smugglers appear to be loading each boat more migrants, and are operating without fear of punishment.

Smuggling has become increasingly lucrative, and in Libya, which is divided by opposing governments and spiralling ever deeper into chaos, the market is thriving. One anonymous smuggler says, “A fishing boat worth 40,000 dinar, (£20,000) can be sold for smuggling for £100,000. It’s an unimaginable amount of money. The boats are brought in from Egypt, they’re bad quality and you load it with 90 or 100 people, and some of them get there and others will die.” The operations are run through a complex criminal and tribal network; the UN estimates that smuggling is worth over £100m a year. Despite the dangers, new migrants–“cargo”– arrives daily.

The migrants often originate in sub-Saharan Africa. They pay repeatedly to be taken to the next stage of migration. The migrants are often hidden in cargo trucks and not given food or water for days. In the dessert the smugglers use hidden trails, and will sometimes abandon the migrants in the middle of the desert, telling them, “follow these power lines and eventually, you’ll reach a city”. Many die en-route.

For those that do make it, many aim for Libya’s coastal waters. The anonymous smuggler reported that the areas of Sabratha and Zuwarah, west of Tripoli near the Tunisian border, are under the control of smugglers. They use the official sea ports for smuggling immigrants, and load people from the port docks. He says he tells each migrant the risk before they embark. If they pay more, they are allowed onto a better quality boat. They are offered discounts if they choose to get on an overcrowded or less seaworthy boat.

EU Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini was tasked to ask the United Nations for permission to use air and naval power to destroy smugglers’ boats along the Libyan coast before they can use them. Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general, disagrees with plans to mount military strikes against the boats. He argues that while smugglers use the boats to conduct criminal activity, targeting them could unintentionally harm Libyan fishermen, further weakening Libya’s economy. Although Ban has vocalised his opinion, he cannot prevent the UN Security Council from approving the strikes.

In Libya, the groups controlling Tripoli have said they will confront any EU operation that seeks to attack sites used by people smugglers. Muhammed el-Ghirani, Foreign Minister of the unrecognised Tripoli-based government, says his group has repeatedly offered to help deal with migrants, but their proposals had been rebuffed. International governments recognise only the Tobruq based government, led by Libyan President Abdullah al-Thani. It is so far unclear what the Tobruq government can do in a region that is controlled by opposing forces. It is likely that stemming the flow of migrants is incumbent upon finding a peaceful solution to Libya’s political chaos.