MS Risk Blog

ISIS now controls 50 percent of Syria

Islamic State now controls over 50% of Syria, after its capture of the ancient city of Palmyra. The group took control of Palmyra on Wednesday after a week-long siege. Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al Assad collapsed away after at least 100 Syrian regime troops were killed overnight in fighting against ISIS. The terrorist group also reportedly began to massacre members of the Shaitat tribe, who had previously rebelled against ISIS in Deir Ezzor. At that time, ISIS killed 800 of their members. ISIS has imposed a curfew in the city and has conducted weeps to find remaining members of Assad’s forces. The capture of Palmyra brings Islamic State closer to the government controlled strongholds of Homs and Damascus. ISIS control of the ancient city also severs supply lines to Deir Ezzor.

ISIS also now has control of the Arak and al-Hail gas fields near Palmyra. These fields power most of the Syrian regime’s strongholds in the west. Control of these fields has given ISIS control over a large portion of the country’s electricity supply.

ISIS now controls over 95,000 square kilometres in Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The group controls majority of Raqqa province, which is the group’s de-facto “capital”, and also controls most of Deir Ezzor. ISIS has also taken parts of Hassakeh and the Aleppo countryside, as well as parts of the Homs countryside and the Yarmouk refugee camp in southern Damascus. The group also controls most of the Syrian Desert. The areas it holds are mostly sparsely inhabited.

Palmyra, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, was once a Silk Road hub a cultural centres of the ancient world. It is home to beautiful ruins of antiquity, including the Temple of Bel, built in the first century. ISIS considers the preservation of historical ruins a form of idolatry. UN and Syrian officials fear that ISIS plans to destroy the ruins, as it did in the ancient Assyrian city of Nimrud and in Iraq’s Mosul Museum. In the absence of opposition, the group can enter and destroy the historic city’s ancient ruins. ISIS has used the destruction of heritage sites as a form of profit; selling looted remnants of destroyed ruins on the black market. The group also uses the destruction of these sites as propaganda.

The cohesion and strength of Syrian troops has been called to question amid the fall of Palmyra. Forces fell away from the city rapidly, surprising many observers, considering the importance of Palmyra and its proximity to supply routes. Syria’s main cities, including Damascus, are located in the west, near the border with Lebanon or on the Mediterranean coastline. These cities have been the priority for the Syrian military. It appears the troops are focusing their attention on protecting areas to the west, rather than fighting for areas currently occupied by the terrorist group.

After a Period of Relative Calm, Boko Haram Violence Escalates Again

At least eight people were killed Tuesday when a suicide bomber blew himself up outside a livestock market in northeastern Nigeria, as Boko Haram violence begins to escalate after a period of relative calm. The latest attack comes as Boko Haram militants have launched a series of attacks on towns and villages in Borno and neighbouring Adamawa state, prompting fears that the on going military offensive has failed to stem the militant group’s capabilities of carrying deadly attacks.

Tuesday’s suicide bombing targeted a livestock market in a village in Adamawa state, where militants shot dead three people and kidnapped seven women at the weekend. According to state assembly lawmaker Jerry Kundusi, the bombing occurred outside a livestock market at about 1:15 PM (1215 GMT) in the village of Garkida, which is located some 165 kilometres (100 miles) north of the state capital, Yola, and near the state border with Borno. Eyewitnesses have reported, “it was a lone bomber who blew himself up just outside the livestock market.”

Over the past weekend, Boko Haram gunmen killed three people and abducted seven women in a raid on a northeastern district previously declared safe by the military. According to Madagali local government chief Maina Ularamu, “the insurgents attacked the (Sabon Gari Hyembula) village around 10:30 PM (2130 GMT) where they killed three people and kidnapped seven women,” adding that they looted food supplies and left thirteen people injured.   Madagali fell under Boko Haram’s control in August and forced thousands of residents to flee their homes. In March, the defense ministry indicated that the area was cleared of insurgents, resulting in those displaced to begin returning home. The latest violence however has forced civilians to flee the region again. This latest attack has also underscored the persisting threat posed by Boko Haram despite the on going military offensive. According to the district chief, militants “have been pushed out of Madagali district but there are still remnants… hiding in nearby mountains and bushes,” adding that the area has recently seen a string of night-time raids, with militants typically targeting food stores and kidnapping people.

Over the past week, Boko Haram violence has escalated, with the militant group carrying out a deadly attack near the Borno state capital and recapturing a strategic town.

Last Wednesday, residents and the army reported that Boko Haram fighters launched an attack on Maiduguri but were repelled by Nigerian troops after intense clashes. Witnesses reported that dozens of militants armed with heavy guns and rocket-propelled grenades stormed the northern outskirts of the city, near the Giwa military base, shooting and firing explosives indiscriminately. In a statement released late Wednesday, the army disclosed that soldiers had fought off “a band of terrorists” and that two bombs carried by female suicide bombers were detonated ahead of the attack. The following day, sources disclosed that at least three soldiers, six vigilantes and dozens of Boko Haram insurgents were killed during clashes. According to civilian vigilante official Yusuf Sani, “three soldiers were killed during a fight with the terrorists while six of our members were killed by three female suicide bombers.” In the aftermath of the attack, the army imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew, with on the ground sources reporting that streets were deserted and that only soldiers and police were seen patrolling. Schools, markets, and public buildings, including hospitals, were also closed. Wednesday’s assault is the first to occur on Maiduguri in three months, following sweeping offensives on Boko Haram strongholds carried out by a regional coalition of troops from Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria.

Meanwhile on Saturday, a young suicide bomber blew herself up in Damaturu, the capital of Yobe state, killing at least seven people and wounding 27 others. According to eyewitnesses, the girl, believed to be aged about 12, detonated the explosives at a busy market near a bus station. While there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the blast, the attack bears the hallmark of previous Boko Haram suicide bombings. While in recent weeks, a military offensive has recaptured significant amount of territory from the militant group, resulting I the frequency of raids and bomb attacks to significantly decrease, over the past week, several attacks suggest that the militants are returning to guerrilla warfare tactics.

According to a regional official, Boko Haram militants have recaptured the strategic town of Marte in the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno, just weeks after the military indicated that it had contained the militants in a forest stronghold. Since 2013, the town, which is located along a strategic trading route between Nigeria and neighbouring Cameroon and Chad, has traded hands between the jihadists and government troops several times. While a regional military coalition, composed of troops from Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria, has claimed a series of major victories against Boko Haram since it launched an offensive in February, recently, the Islamist group has been pushing back, carrying out a deadly assault on villages near Maiduguri, the first assault on the key northern city in three months. Deputy Governor Zannah Umar Mustapha of Borno state has indicated that officials now fear that hundreds of female suicide bombers may have entered Maiduguri, effectively using the panic that ensued Wednesday evening as hundreds of insurgents tried to attack Giwa Barracks, which is located on the outskirts of Maiduguri.

El Salvador, a Gang-plagued Territory to Become the Deadliest Peace-time Country in the World

According Rudolph Giuliani, a former mayor of New York City: “the best answer to terrorist groups and gangs is to confront them. Giuliani, who brought the broken-window theory, which claims that tolerance of small crimes, would encourage bigger ones in New York City, rejects the idea of negotiating with gangsters. He was hired in January 2015 by the business community in El Salvador in order to propose tough-guy solutions to crime in El Salvador. The team composed of experts was tasked to assess the effectiveness of the country’s law enforcement, to develop a fact-finding report and to analyse the criminal justice. The facts, however, may prove his theory wrong.

On March 9, 2012, the two main gangs that control turf in El Salvador, namely the Mara Salvatrucha 13 and the Barrio 18, whose origins date back to the incarcerated Salvadoran and Mexican populations in the prisons of Los Angeles in the 1980’s, reached a truce. From their headquarters in Salvadoran maximum-security jails, they instructed their members to stop murdering each other. Moreover, they agreed with the government of former President Mauricio Funes to constrain their members from killing law enforcement officers. While President Funes’ administration did not explicitly admit participation, the government offered to work on preventing youth from joining the maras, and assist in reintegrating them into regular employment. In addition, leaders were transferred to medium security prisons, cell phone communication and conjugal visits were allowed.

The talks between the two gangs were initiated by Monsignor Fabio Colindres who played the role of mediator between the parties. This truce initially resulted in a significant reduction in the national’s homicide rate from 14 per day to 5 per day. However, nearly 3 years later, the country suffered its bloodiest month in a decade and is to become the most violent country outside a war-zone. Homicides had initially fallen during the first months of the truce, but extortions were increasing. Indeed, in order to stay in business, the maras have been increasing their revenue by demanding weekly payments from local populations and businesses. The truce was brokered by the Salvadoran government, but it soared after the government broke down early 2014. The number of murders rose by 57% in 2014 compared with a year earlier, to almost 11 a day, according to the police. By March 2015, this number rose up to 16 per day, confirming that the death toll was 52% higher than in the same period in 2014.

According to Steven Dudley, an expert from Insight Crime, the agreement represented “more of a violence interruption project than a truce. It required the participation of police and trusted interlocutors with the gangs. It fell apart when the government pulled its support from the project in June 2013 and named a new security minister. It slowly unravelled after.” Gang leaders from both the Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18 blamed rising violence on poor government policy and asked the new government of President Sanchez Ceren to confront the “death squads” that had “recently taken the lives of many of our members, family members and civilians”, affirming that some of these groups operated inside the state apparatus. Security minister Perdomo was one of the protagonists in the anti-truce strategy who closed the channels of communication between imprisoned gang members and also claiming the gangs had used the truce in order to increase their involvement in transnational drug trafficking.

Indeed, President Sanchez Ceren’s administration has been implementing a tougher approach to the maras in parallel with the framework of Security Minister Perdomo. For instance, in January El Salvador’s vice-president announced that police should respond with force and “without any fear of suffering consequences if threatened by gang members.” Vice President Oscar Ortiz said that the government endorsed the decision of the federal police direct last week to authorize the new policy. Before the implementation of this new policy, police officers who used deadly force would be investigated and sometimes fired. Ortiz also added that the Salvadorian government would no longer tolerate attacks on the country’s police, military, judges or prosecutors. Additionally, President Salvador Sanchez Ceren announced the creation of four new rapid response battalions, one for the police and three for the army in order to strengthen the efficiency of current forces involved in the fight against street gangs. Salvadoran authorities also reported in April that some 400 gang members have been transferred from prisons in northern to eastern El Salvador to one with higher security in Izalco, in order to cut off communication with their gang and also prevent new waves of crimes.

In spite of the implementation of such tough new measures, no improvement has been noticed yet and conversely gang-related violence has skyrocketed. It is highly likely that a more fruitful approach would be to build on the truce rather than disown it and should be part of thorough pacification process that would include economic aid for gang-controlled areas in order to provide alternative to crime. The truce offered an alternative to iron-fist policies that have proven to be repeated failures to stop violence. Therefore, it seems important to re-establish dialogue between Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18 and the government as the militarization of the country provoked the gangs to systematically attack police and military forces.

Egypt Raises Security Levels to Maximum

Egypt has raised its alert level to maximum across all security headquarters in the country.

The decision came on Saturday after former President Mohamed Morsi was issued a preliminary death sentence on charges of orchestrating a prison break in 2011. It is expected that Morsi’s sentencing will lead to a rise of unrest in the country in coming weeks. Security presence at all vital facilities, and on major squares and streets, has been intensified across the country. Alert levels have also been raised at all stations belonging to the Egyptian Radio and Television Union.

An immediate spate of attacks followed Morsi’s sentencing. Hours after the death sentence was issued, unidentified gunmen opened fire on a bus in al-Arish, North Sinai, killing three prosecutors and a driver. Two judges were reportedly wounded in the attack. Later in the day, an IED targeted the main courthouse in Assiut, injuring a police officer. In Giza, a policeman was killed in a drive-by shooting. In Fayoum, a bomb exploded outside a church, damaging the building’s façade.

On Sunday, a bomb detonated near a courthouse in Port Said, injuring a small girl. In addition, unknown assailants attacked a security patrol on the Fayoum ring road. No injuries were reported.

Egyptian President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi issued an order providing greater security for judges, particularly those operating in areas dealing with “violence and terrorism,” according to a statement from his office.

Government opposition groups have already called for rallies. A statement from the Anti-Coup Pro-Legitimacy National Alliance has called on Egyptians to “to continue and escalate their non-violent struggle and actively participate in the revolutionary wave extending until July 3 under the slogan ‘Victory and Retribution.’” Protestors commonly gather after Friday afternoon prayers. It is likely that demonstrators will clash with security forces, resulting in an escalation of tensions and the possibility of violence. Major governorates likely to be affected are Cairo, Alexandria, Fayoum, Sharqia and Minya. In addition, militant groups have previously issued statements of support for Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, and are likely to conduct actions and issue statements of threat based on the verdict.

In addition to anger generated from Morsi’s sentencing, Egyptians have spoken out against another ruling. On Saturday, the Cairo Court for Urgent Matters designated all organized groups of dedicated football fans – known as Ultras – as terrorists.

The decision comes after a lawsuit from Mortada Mansour, chairman of Zamalek Football Club. Mansour claims that members of Zamalek’s hard-core supporter group, the Ultras White Knights (UWK), threw acid in his face and plotted to murder him and a former sports minister. Mansour also alleges that UWK is responsible for burnings buildings belonging to the national football association in 2013. UWK has a large following and is deeply politicised. In 2011, many of the Ultras participated in the uprising that forced out autocrat Hosni Mubarak. The group says they are now being persecuted for daring to stand up to the government of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Protests from hard-core football fans are likely to be scattered throughout the country, with the heaviest protests likely to occur in Cairo.

On Sunday, Egyptian authorities executed six men by hanging on charges of killing soldiers. The men were said to be members of Sinai Peninsula-based Ansar Beit al Maqdis, which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in November 2014. Human rights groups appealed for a stay of execution; Amnesty International said the men underwent a “grossly unfair” trial and that the only witness during the hearings was a secret police officer. If the men were in fact members of the terrorists group, it is likely that retaliatory attacks will take place in north Sinai, Cairo, and in major cities throughout Egypt.

Since 2013, Egyptian security officials have reported near daily shootings at security forces, as well as an increase in the discovery of IEDs. In recent months, IEDs have been increasingly placed near power stations or electricity pylons, causing blackouts in affected regions. On Saturday, seven bombs were found near electricity pylons in Fayoum. The bombs were safely dismantled.

While the current government has taken a harsh stance against terrorism in the country, many fear that the regime has created conditions which could induce further violence. The 2013 designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation has resulted in the arrest and detainment of thousands of individuals, and several trials (derided as unfair by rights groups)  resulting in mass death sentences. Further, many believe that the government is utilising the terrorist designation in an effort to shut down anti-government dissent of any nature. It is likely that the court decisions made over the weekend will degrade the security of the nation in the immediate to short term.

Burundi Coup Fails as Leader Returns

An attempt earlier this week to overthrow Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza ended in failure on Friday as coup leaders admitted defeat and were either arrested or forced to go on the run.

Earlier this week, General Godefroid Niyombare launched a coup in the Central African nation as the country’s president was in neighbouring Tanzania to participate in regional talks on the on-going crisis in Burundi. On Friday a spokesman for the president confirmed that Burundian forces have arrested General Nyiombare. Earlier in the day, a senior police official had indicated “General Niyombare has evaded us but we know where he is hiding,” adding that he is believed to have fled to a southern district of the capital. Two senior army officers and a police general, who have been accused of taking part in the attempted coup, have been arrested.

The dramatic end to the coup attempt effectively ended 48 hours of uncertainty as questions arose who was in charge of the country, which in recent weeks has been gripped by a political crisis over President Nkurunziza’s controversial bid to stand for a third consecutive term in office. Wednesday’s coup announcement resulted in international criticism. In emergency talks on the crisis on Thursday, the United Nations Security Council condemned the coup attempt and called for a swift return to the rule of law. The United States State Department indicated that Nkurunziza remained the legitimate president.

On Friday, the presidency announced that President Nkurunziza was back in the capital Bujumbura and that he will soon address the nation. According to an aide to the president, “he is in Bujumbura in a very secure place,” adding that he will address the nation today. The streets of Bujumbura were mostly calm, following fighting that erupted on Thursday between loyalist troops and forces supporting the General. On the ground sources have reported that police set up checkpoints along a highway in the southern region of the country. Protesters have indicated that they will return to the streets, a move that will likely lead to more clashes.