MS Risk Blog

Ebola Update (25 June 2015)

Despite hopes rising that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could soon be contained, after Liberia was declared free of the deadly virus in early May, the latest figures released Wednesday by the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate that the outbreak is showing no signs of abating in Guinea and may be flaring up once again in neighbouring Sierra Leone.

In the week leading up to 21 June, there were 20 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) compared with 24 cases that were recorded the week before. According to officials, while the weekly case incidence has stalled between 20 – 27 cases since the end of May, cases continue to arise from unknown sources of infection and are typically detected only after post-mortem testing.

During this reporting period, only 6 of the 12 cases that were reported in Guinea and 4 of the 8 cases reported in Sierra Leone were registered contacts of previous cases. As of 21 June, there were 2,003 contacts being monitored across 4 prefectures in Guinea and 1,023 contacts were under follow-up in 3 districts in Sierra Leone.

There have been a total of 27,443 reported confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 11,207 reported deaths.

Guinea

During this reporting period, Guinea confirmed 12 cases in the same four prefectures as reported cases in the previous week: Boke, Conakry, Dubreka and Forecariah. According to WHO officials, while cases have been reported from the same 4 prefectures over the past three weeks, data indicates that the area of active transmission within these prefectures has changed and in some cases, it has expanded.

In the northern prefecture of Boke, which borders Guinea-Bissau, officials have reported that the main focus of transmission has switched from the coastal sub-prefecture of Kamsar to the more urbanized sub-prefecture of Boke Centre. In the week leading up to 21 June, two cases that were reported in Boke were health workers.

During this reporting period there was one case reported in the capital Conakry. The case was recorded in the Matam area of the city and arose from an unknown source of infection. Three cases that were reported in the capital city in the previous two weeks are suspected to have generated a large number of high-risk, untraced contacts.

In Dubreka, one case was reported during this period in the sub-prefecture of Tanene. While the origin of this case currently remains unknown, officials have disclosed that preliminary investigations indicate that it is linked to previous cases in the same sub-prefecture.

The prefecture of Forecariah continues to be the most complex in terms of transmission, with multiple chains of transmission remaining active across 3 sub-prefectures. This has been an issue that has affected this prefecture over the past several months. In the week leading up to 21 June, three of the 5 cases that were reported in Forecariah arose from an unknown chain or chains of transmission.   Furthermore, two of those three cases were reported from a sub-prefecture, Benty, which has not reported a confirmed case since mid-March. Both cases in Benty and another possible related case from a neighbouring sub-prefecture were identified after post-mortem testing was carried out.

The upcoming election, due to be held in October, is now adding another layer of worry to both Guineans and local health workers, with some residents stating that campaign events, where people crowd together, should not be held yet. 

Sierra Leone 

During this reporting period, Sierra Leone recorded 8 cases in three districts: Kambia, Port Loko and the district that includes the capital city, Freetown, which reported confirmed cases for the first time in over two weeks.

Compared with neighbouring Guinea, transmission in Sierra Leone has been more geographically confined over the past three weeks, with cases remaining clustered in several chiefdoms of the districts of Kambia and Port Loko. However, figures for this reporting period indicated a worrisome development, as 2 cases were reported from the Marampa chiefdom in Port Loko for the first time since the beginning of March. Additionally, two cases were also reported from the area that includes the capital city for the first time in over two weeks.

In Kambia, both cases were reported in the Tonko Limba chiefdom, which has been the primary focus of transmission in Kambia over the past three weeks. According to local officials, both cases are registered contacts and were residing in a quarantined dwelling at the time of symptom onset.

During this reporting period, four cases were recorded in Port Loko. Two cases were reported from the Kaffu Bullom chiefdom, which has been the origin of the majority of cases that have been reported in the West African country over the past three weeks. One of the cases, a health worker, is a registered contact of a previous case while the remaining two cases arose from an as-yet unknown source of transmission.

Officials reported Monday that over the past few days, the country has recorded two new cases of Ebola in the capital Freetown, effectively disproving the assumption that the deadly virus no longer affected the city. According to Sidi Yahya Tunis, a spokesman for the National Ebola Response Centre (NERC), “this is worrisome because we had already closed all Ebola quarantine structures in Freetown since we had gone for weeks without a case.” Tunis further disclosed that there were concerns about further infection as the two cases were reported in Magazine Wharf, which is a densely populated neighbourhood that lacks adequate hygiene facilities. Health officials have disclosed that the first case to be reported in Freetown since 29 May is a fishermen who caught the virus from his girlfriend in the northern district of Port Loko, a northern province that remains affected by Ebola. Shortly afterwards, a family member who lived in the same household also caught the virus.

Tunisian Diplomats Released In Libya

Tunisia’s foreign minister confirmed Friday that ten Tunisian diplomats, seized by Libyan gunmen linked to the Tripoli government, have been released and have flown home. The foreign minister has denied that the diplomats had been traded for a militia leader and announced that Tunisia is closing its consulate in Tripoli because of the Libyan authorities’ inability to ensure diplomats’ security.

On 12 June, the Libyan Dawn militia stormed the Tunisian consulate in Tripoli and seized the diplomats. Mokhtar Chaouachi, a spokesman for the Tunisian Foreign Ministry, disclosed at the time that it remained unclear whether the attackers were holding the hostages on site or had taken them elsewhere, adding that he did not know whether the attackers had opened fire or had made any demands in exchange for the captives. On Saturday, the interior minister for Libya’s self-declared government indicated that ten Tunisan counsellor staff kidnapped in the country’s capital city are in good condition and that contact has been made with their captors. According to Interior Minister Mohamed Shaiteer, “I am in contact with the group who abducted the Tunisian staff and hopefully the staff will be freed soon.”

Early last week, a Libyan official and Tunisian source reported that three of the ten Tunisian consular staff had been freed, adding that negotiations over the remaining hostages were continuing. Speaking to reporters, Faraj Swahili, a Libyan diplomat police official, disclosed “three diplomats have been freed…after they were kidnapped in the capital Tripoli,” adding “the other seven diplomats will be released when the Libyan detainee in Tunis, Walid Kalib, is released by Tunisian authorities.” Last month, Tunisian authorities arrested Kalib, who is a member of Libya Dawn. A Tunisian court has refused to release Kalib, who faces kidnapping charges in Tunisia.

Vessel Hijacked in Southeast Asian Waters Released

On 11 June, the owners of the Malaysia-flagged tanker ORKIM HARMONY lost contact with the vessel and reported the event to authorities, fearing the vessel had been hijacked. Over the following days, the vessel remained undetected until it was located on 18 June in Cambodian waters.

Military and marine police forces from Malaysia and Australia had been trailing the vessel, with Malaysian authorities indicating that they were in contact with eight of the pirates on board the vessel and that they were trying to negotiate a peaceful surrender.

On Friday, Malaysian navy and maritime officials disclosed that the hijacked oil tanker ORKIM HARMONY has been released by pirates, who fled in the ship’s rescue boat. According to officials, the vessel was now being escorted by the navy to Malaysia’s Kuantan Port. Malaysia’s Chief of Navy Admiral Abdul Aziz Jaafar indicated that after the tanker was hijacked, the pirates repainted the ship and changed the vessel’s name to Kim Harmon. One member of the 22 crewmembers on board the vessel, sustained injuries during the attack, suffering a gunshot wound to the thigh.

On 22 June, the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA) reported that five pirates involved in the hijacking of the ORKIM HARMONY remained at large. Last week, eight Indonesian pirates were apprehended by the Vietnam Coast Guard, just a day after the vessel was located. The group was reportedly trying to escape from navy ships and aircraft in the ORKIM HARMONY’s life boat. At a press conference on Monday, the MMEA’s deputy director-general, Ahmad Puzi Ab Kahar, disclosed that there were a total of 13 attackers involved in the hijacking, adding that the five pirates still at large are believed to have been separated from the group that was apprehended last week. According to the deputy director-general, they were responsible for manning a tugboat, which was first used to approach the vessel. The tugboat was found abandoned in Batam, Indonesia, over the weekend however there were no signs of the pirates. Ahmad Puzi has disclosed that all thirteen assailants are believed to be professional maritime criminals, additionally, he disclosed that those who are currently in custody have a high-degree of seafaring knowledge and criminal records for piracy. Malaysia is currently in the process of extraditing the eight assailants that were detained by Vietnamese authorities. The group is believed to be part of a larger piracy network that operates in Southeast Asian waters.

This hijacking is the second seizure of a tanker by pirates operating in Southeast Asia this month, and has raised concerns about further such attacks in the region. On 4 June, an oil tanker, ORKIM VICTORY, carrying diesel loaded from Petronas, was hijacked in the same area and on the same route. The vessel was later released by the hijackers after they siphoned off about 770 metric tonnes (6,000 barrels) of its cargo.

Suspect in 1982 Paris Attack Arrested in Jordan

According to a source close to the case, the suspected mastermind of an attack on a Jewish restaurant in Paris France in 1982, which left six people dead and injured 22 others, has been arrested in Jordan.

Zuhair Mohamed Hassan Khalid al-Abassi was one of three men for whom France issued an international arrest warrant earlier this year. According to a French legal source, he was arrested on 1 June and an extradition request is underway. An official source from Jordan has indicated that “ a court (has) imposed a travel ban pending a decision on whether he will be extradited.”

According to a Jordanian source close to the case, extraditing to France the suspected mastermind of the attack may prove difficult as “Jordan does not usually extradite its citizens to other countries, even in the case of an extradition agreement,” adding, “in such a case, they are generally tried in specialized Jordanian courts.” Al-Abassi appeared, without legal representation, before Judge Talal al-Saghir, who specializes in extradition cases. According to the source, when asked if he was the person being sought by Paris in connection with the attack, the suspect replied in the affirmative. The judge has since ordered that Al-Abassi’s passport be surrendered. The suspect has been released on bail, pending resolution of the issue. According to security sources, Al-Abassi was detained in the city of Zarqa, which is located some 30 kilometres (18 miles) northeast of Amman.

Between three and five men are believed to have taken part in the attack, which was blamed on the Abu Nidal Organization, a Palestinian militant group. The other two main suspects in the attack have been named as Mahmoud Khader Abed Adra, who lives in Ramallah in the West Bank, and Walid Abdulrahman Abu Zayed, who is a resident of Norway. The attack on the Chez Jo Goldenberg restaurant, in Paris’ Marais district, began around midday on 9 August, when a grenade was thrown into the dining room. Two men then entered the restaurant, which at the time had around 50 customers inside, and opened fire. They also shot at passers-by as they escaped down the street. The entire incident lasted several minutes. Over the years, the investigation has made little progress.

Guatemala on Brink of Crisis Amid Corruption Scandal

Guatemala’s government is thinning with a string of high-profile resignations and arrests of top officials following the revelation of a corruption scandal inside President Otto Perez Molina’s administration. Massive protests gathering thousands of Guatemalans have been organized via social media in order to demand the President’s resignation. This is the first time in Guatemala’s recent history that a broad cross section of society including students, politicians, the country’s powerful business lobby, indigenous peoples, and members of a historically passive middle class, joined together in a unified call for the removal of corrupt officials.

The initial scandal that sparked public anger involves a criminal network that has been called La Linea (The Line), in reference to a certain mobile phone number importers called to negotiate the amount they paid in customs taxes. Thanks to this network, businesses could receive an illegal discount on the required fees when their property cleared customs. About 50% of the balance was then paid to the state. The rest went to a network of defrauders that included corrupt officials and their collaborators.

On April 16, Guatemalan authorities arrested 22 people including the current and former heads of Guatemala’s tax collection agency. This 8-months investigation was the result of a joint effort between the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala, a UN-backed institution charged with investigating and helping disband clandestine and parallel power structures linked to the state, and Guatemala’s Public Prosecutor’s Office. Prosecutors estimate that Guatemala lost at least $120 million in tax revenue just in the 8-months period to the scam. As the investigation continues to unfold, it has also revealed an inter-connected web of judicial corruption that’s been nicknamed the “Law Firm of Impunity”, resulting in investigations into judges and justices on Guatemala´s Supreme Court. Iduvina Hernandez, a political analyst and the executive director of the Association for the Study and Promotion of Security in Democracy said: “the parallel power structure that has been revealed through the CICIG’s investigations is derived precisely from the existence of a larger pact of impunity.» In the case of La Linea, top officials and individuals allegedly raked in millions in dollars per year while state institutions lacked important resources for education, medicine, and basic security.

Additionally, just a week later a second investigation by CICIG and the Public Prosecutor’s Office revealed another corruption scandal within Guatemala’s Social Security Institute. The institute had awarded a kidney dialysis contract to the company Drogueria Pisa in exchange for kickbacks to government officials, including IGSS employees as well as the head of the Guatemalan Central Bank. Pisa had no expertise providing the treatment, and 13 have died since. A total of 17 public officials have been arrested, but most notable has been the arrest of the president of the board of the IGSS, Juan de Dios Rodriguez who was a powerful former military man and who once served as President Perez Molina’s private secretary.

Such corruption scandals within the government and at different levels triggered massive movements of demonstrations and rocked President Perez Molina’s administration. Vice President Roxana Baldetti was the first to step down, handing in her resignation on May 8. Although she wasn’t implicated in the initial corruption investigation, she was plunged into controversy when her private secretary, Juan Carlos Monzón Rojas, was identified as the leader of the fraud ring. Shortly after her resignation, Baldetti was also placed under investigation. As investigations continue, high-level officials in a number of major executive branch offices have resigned or been fired.

Moreover, President Otto Pérez Molina has dismissed or asked for resignations from his chief of intelligence, the ministers of the environment and of energy and mines, and his interior minister, among others. Many of the ousted officials are members of Pérez Molina’s inner circle and are under investigation for various acts of alleged corruption.

However, these ministry shake-ups have not been enough to quell calls for the president’s resignation and demonstrations continue to fill Guatemala’s streets. The crisis is playing out ahead of presidential elections in September, with polls giving a large lead to Manuel Baldizón, a populist right-wing tycoon. This is the deepest political crisis of the post-war era in Guatemala. But it remains unclear whether it will eventually strengthen or dangerously undermine the country’s still-feeble democracy. On June 10, Guatemala’s Supreme Court accepted a petition to allow Congress to decide whether to revoke President Perez Molina’s immunity from prosecution for possible involvement in acts of corruption. President Perez Molina has stated that he will not resign in spite of the public movement against him. The situation in Guatemala is currently highly flexible and many scenarios could play out in the coming weeks.