MS Risk Blog

Ebola Update (17 July 2015)

In the seven days leading up to 12 July, there were thirty confirmed cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. While the total number of confirmed cases is the same as during the previous weeks, officials have noted that there has been a shift in the foci of transmission. During this reporting period, Guinea recorded 13 cases; Liberia 3; and Sierra Leone 14.

For the first time in several months, most of the cases that were reported during this period occurred in the capitals of Guinea (Conakry) and Sierra Leone (Freetown).

There have been a total of 27,642 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and 11,261 reported deaths. As of 12 July, there are 3,552 contacts being monitored across 6 prefectures in Guinea; 2 counties in Liberia and 3 districts in Sierra Leone.

Guinea

Guinea recorded 13 confirmed cases of EVD in 3 prefectures: Conakry, Forecariah and Fria. For the first time in several months, the majority of the cases reporting during this week, 9, occurred in the capital, with seven of the 9 cases being reported in the Ratoma commune (administrative district). The remaining two were reported from the neighbouring commune of Matam. Officials have indicated that all of the cases are either registered contacts or have an epidemiological link to a known chain of transmission.

The small western prefecture of Fria reported a confirmed case this week for the first time in over forty days. Officials have indicated that the case is a contact of a previous case in the northern prefecture of Boke.

The northern prefecture of Boke, which had been a focus of transmission for several weeks, has not reported a case in eleven consecutive days, however officials have warned that cases may still arise as 125 contacts associated with previous cases are still being monitored.

Liberia

During the reporting period, there were three new cases recorded in Liberia, bringing the total number of cases sine 29 June to six.

Officials have indicated that all of the three confirmed cases reported in the week leading up to 12 July were registered contacts associated with the same chain of transmission as the three cases reported in the previous week.

Sierra Leone

During this reporting period, there were 14 confirmed cases recorded in three districts: Freetown, Kambia and Port Loko. This is the highest total since the second week in June.

For the first time in several months, the majority of cases were reported in the capital city, Freetown. According to officials, eight of the 10 cases reported from the capital were registered contacts residing in quarantined homes in the Magazine Wharf area of the city, which has been a focus of transmission for several weeks. The two remaining cases both have an epidemiological link to the Magazine Wharf chain of transmission however they were identified after post-mortem testing and therefore represent a high risk of further transmission.

There were two cases reported in Kambia, in the Samu chiefdom on the northern border with Forecariah, Guinea. Officials have indicated that both cases were known contacts of a previous case. The remaining case was reported from a quarantined home in Tonko Limba chiefdom, and was also a registered contact of a previous case.

There was one case reported in Port Loko, in the chiefdom of Marampa. The source of infection is currently under investigation.

Afghanistan Claims IS Leader Killed in Drone Strike

Afghanistan’s domestic intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), has issued a statement claiming that the leader of the Islamic State (IS) terror group in Afghanistan and Pakistan was killed in a drone strike in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar on Friday. Hafiz Saeed – a former Pakistani Taliban commander who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in January – is believed to be among at least thirty other IS militants killed during the attack. Two IS commanders, formerly members of the Taliban, were present when the drone struck and have since confirmed Saeed’s death. A US military spokesperson in Afghanistan has also confirmed that a strike was carried out in Nangarhar but has declined to give any further details.

However, an audio recording of an individual believed to be Hafiz Saeed has since been posted on the Islamic State’s Arabic website. Speaking in the local Pashto language, the as-yet unidentified individual talks about the Islamic State’s desire to implement sharia law in Afghanistan. He also comments on the recent battles between IS militants and members of the Taliban in Nangarhar and the Pakistani security service’s influence over certain members of the latter group. While the authenticity of the audio recording has not been independently verified, it does cast doubt over whether or not Saeed was in fact killed during the Nangarhar drone strike. While this is not the first time that Saeed has been reported killed, his death could represent a major blow to the Islamic State’s ambitions in Khorasan, a geopolitical entity that encompasses both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While Saeed is the most high profile IS commander to have been targeted recently he is by no means the only one. Earlier in the week, two senior Pakistani militants were also killed in a drone strike in Nangarhar. Security officials reporting on the incident have confirmed that one of the men, Gul Zaman, was Saeed’s deputy in Afghanistan, while the other, Shahidullah Shahid, was the Pakistani Taliban’s principal spokesperson until he defected to join the IS last year. Both men were killed in a US drone strike on a leadership council meeting of the Islamic State in Khorasan. A spokesperson for the Afghan NDS confirmed the strike in a public statement. However, the death toll remains unclear with reports ranging from 24 to 45 fatalities.

Iran Signs Historic Nuclear Agreement with World Powers

On Tuesday, major powers reached an agreement with Tehran aimed at ensuring that the country does not obtain a nuclear bomb and which will also open up the country’s stricken economy.

The agreement, which was reached on day 18 of marathon talks in Vienna, is aimed at ending a 13-year standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions after repeated diplomatic failures and threats of military action. Both Iran and the European Union have hailed the agreement as a new chapter of hope for the world. At the start of a final meeting to formally sign off on the accord, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini stated, “I think this is a sign of hope for the entire world and we all know this is very much needed in this time,” adding, “it is a decision that can open the way to a new chapter in international elations and show that diplomacy, coordination, cooperation can over come decades of tensions and confrontation.” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that the agreement is a “historic moment,” noting, “we are reaching an agreement that is not perfect for anybody but it is what we could accomplish and it is an important achievement for all of us.” The agreement effectively places strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities for at least a decade and calls for stringent UN oversight, with world powers hoping that this will make any attempts to make an atomic bomb virtually impossible. In return, international sanctions will be lifted and billions of dollars in frozen assets will be unblocked. The agreement, which was built on a framework in April is US President Barack Obama’s crowning foreign policy achievement and comes six years after he told Iran’s leaders that if they “unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” The agreement may also lead to further cooperation between Washington and Tehran.

The head of the UN atomic watchdog announced Tuesday that he has signed with Iran a “roadmap” for probing suspected efforts to develop nuclear weapons, a key part of an overall accord with major powers. Ahead of the expected announcement of the historic agreement with major powers, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Yukya Amano stated that he “…just signed the roadmap between the Islamic republic of Iran and the IAEA for the clarification of past and present outstanding issues regarding Iran’s nuclear programme,” adding that he aims to issue a report on the watchdog’s investigation by 15 December. According to Amano, the roadmap “sets out a clear sequence of activities over the coming months, including the provision by Iran of explanations regarding outstanding issues. It provides for technical expert meetings, technical measures and discussions, as well as a separate arrangement regarding the issue of (Iranian military base) Parchin,” adding “this should enable me to issue a report setting out the Agency’s final assessment of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme, for the action of the IAEA board of Governors, by 15 December 2015.” The wider accord between six major powers and Iran is expected to be announced in Vienna later on Tuesday.

Mexican Officials Launch Search for Fugitive Drug Kingpin

Mexican officials are searching for Joaquin Guzman, the fugitive drug kingpin who escaped from Mexico’s toughest prison, Altiplano, along a 1.5 kilometre long tunnel some 90 kilometres west of Mexico City. Known as “El Chapo” (Shorty) for his diminutive stature, Guzman is the head of the Sinaloa cartel, an organised criminal syndicate based in the city of Culiacán, Sinaloa. In recent years, it has smuggled billions of dollars of marijuana, cocaine and methamphetamine into the United States and has fought numerous bloody battles for pre-eminence with other Mexican cartels. Since the arrest of Osiel Cárdenas of the Gulf Cartel in 2003, Guzman is considered by US authorities to be the most powerful drug trafficker in the world.

In a statement issued by Mexico’s National Security Commission, Guzman – who had been in detention since February 2014 – was last seen by prison officials entering the shower area of his cell at 8.52 pm local time on Saturday. When his cell was subsequently investigated, a hole ten metres deep was found in the floor of the shower area. This led down to a 1.5 kilometre long tunnel which appears to have been professionally excavated. Police found a motorcycle mounted on rails that is thought to have been used to remove dirt as the tunnel was being dug as well as equipment for pumping in fresh air. The tunnel led to an abandoned house which enabled Guzman to resurface and complete his getaway unseen. Locals claim that this property was purchased by outsiders almost a year ago and that construction work has been going on ever since it was taken off the market.

Mexico’s Federal Attorney General’s Office has announced that its organised crime unit is currently in the process of interviewing thirty prison employees, to determine whether or not Guzman’s escape was made possible by an insider. Given that he was able to successfully bribe his way out of prison in 2001, speculation that his jailbreak was aided and abetted by prison authorities has been widely debated. Adding his voice to those who believe the escape was an “inside job” is Mexico’s Interior Minister Angel Osorio Chong, who has fired Altiplano’s prison director and the head of the national penitentiary system in an attempt “to facilitate” the investigation.

In a gesture of solidarity, US Attorney General Loretta Lynch has announced that “The US government stands ready to work with our Mexican partners to provide any assistance that may help support his swift recapture.” However, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto has expressed his confidence in the police’s ability to hunt down the escapee, saying in an interview that they possess the “strength and determination to recapture this criminal.” A 60 million peso (US$3.8 million) reward for information leading to Guzman’s capture has been offered.

IS Claims Responsibility for Consulate Bombing in Egypt

The Islamic State (IS) group has claimed responsibility for a car bomb attack that targeted the Italian consulate in central Cairo on Saturday. The attack has demonstrated a further escalation of violence, which suggests that militants may be opening a new front against foreigners in Egypt.

According to Egypt’s health ministry, at least one person was killed after an explosion that targeted the Italian consulate in the centre of Cairo. Security officials in the area reported Saturday that the force of the blast, which officials have indicated was caused by a car bomb, shook the building in the downtown area of the country’s capital city. A spokesman for the health ministry confirmed that one person was killed and ten others were wounded, including two policemen.

Witnesses near the area reported that the explosion caused widespread damage to the building, with a security source disclosing that preliminary investigations have indicated that the attackers placed a bomb underneath a car and remotely detonated it. While the consulate was closed at the time of the attack, the building is located at one of the busiest intersections in Cairo, a major road that connects Ramsis Square to the heart of the city.

Just hours after the attack, IS militants claimed responsibility. In a statement that was carried on a jihadist website, the group indicated “through God’s blessing, Islamic State soldiers were able to detonate a parked car bomb carrying 450 kg of explosive material on the headquarters of the Italian consulate in central Cairo.” The statement further warned “we recommend that Muslims stay clear of these security dens because they are legitimate targets for the mujahedeen’s strikes.”

Until now, IS supporters in Egypt had targeted security forces in the country, however the militant group appears to be expanding its targets. Just last month, it carried out a suicide bombing near the ancient Karnak temple in Luxor. IS’ Egyptian affiliate, which is based in Sinai, remains resilient despite increasing pressure from the country’s military. Recently, militants operating in the Sinai Peninsula have escalated bombing and shooting attacks, targeting soldiers and police officers. Two weeks ago, a car bomb killed Egypt’s top public prosecutor while militants affiliated to IS attacked several military checkpoints in North Sinai, in what was the fiercest fighting in the region in years. At the time, the army reported that seventeen soldiers and more then 100 militants were killed in those clashes. Saturday’s attack on the Italian consulate in Egypt has also highlighted IS’ expanding reach. After the militant group seized large areas of Iraq and Syria last year, they have increasingly begun to expand into Egypt’s neighbour Libya, and more recently have claimed responsibility for high-profile attacks in France, Kuwait and Tunisia.