MS Risk Blog

Boko Haram Suspected of Carrying Out Attack in Chad

On Monday, five Chadian police officers and six Islamists were killed after suspected Boko Haram militants blew themselves up during a police raid on a safe house in the capital, N’Djamena.

Residents in the capital city reported the first explosion in the Dinguesso neighborhood of N’Djamena, with the second blast occurring minutes later. According to Interior Minister Abderahim Bireme Hamid, the blasts struck after security forces arrested the alleged “brain” behind Boko Haram operations in Chad and in neighboring northern Cameroon. Bireme Hamid disclosed that police found “a lot of documents” and during questioning, one of those held revealed where the group made homemade bombs. In a follow-up search, three suicide vests were also found. The minister reported that as soon as the door of the house was opened “and they saw one of their arrested members, the five Boko Haram blew themselves up…We regret to day that five officers died. And after a search we found the body of another Boko Haram member,” adding that three more police officers sustained injuries in the attack. The latest attack follows the 15 June double suicide bombing, which has been blamed on the Nigerian-based militants. That attack killed at least 33 people in N’Djamena, in what is the deadliest attack to occur in the city.

Earlier on Monday, officials in Chad arrested 60 people in relation to an attack that occurred earlier this month in the capital city. Chad’s chief prosecutor announced “the dismantling (of a Boko Haram cell) and the arrest of 60 people” as part of an inquiry into the suicide bombings that occurred last week. According to prosecutor Alghassim Khamis, “a terrorist cell was identified and taken down. Sixty people were detained,” including Nigerians, Chadians, Cameroonians and Malians. Khamis further disclosed that one of three people behind the 15 June attacks – all of whom were killed by security forces – had been positively identified, while the identify of the two others was being checked, adding “the debris left by the suicide bombers enabled us to determine that the terrorists were wearing specially-made explosive vests in black fabric… Fragments (of the bombs) collected at the scenes of the attacks are identical.” Khamis further disclosed that “the toll for this double attack is 38 dead today, including the three suicide bombers, and 81 wounded and released and 20 wounded still admitted to the hospital,” adding that one person remains in serious condition. Khamis has indicated that “the information received shows that this attack was well planned.”

Mali Targeted By Attacks in Southern and Northern Regions Over the Weekend

On Sunday, gunmen, identified as Islamic extremists, launched an attack and briefly occupied a village in southern Mali, near the border with Ivory Coast, before being forced out by security forces. This is the second attack to be carried out by suspected Islamic extremists over the weekend, and has prompted Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita to convene a meeting of defense officials in the capital, Bamako, in order to discuss the security situation.

Sunday’s attack in southern Mali targeted the village of Fakola, located 15 kilometres (9 miles) north of the Ivory Coast border in the southern region of Sikasso. According to Mamadou Tangara, mayor of the regional capital Sikasso, the militants burned administrative buildings as well as a building that was being used as a local base for military police. Officials have reported that none of the military police officers sustained any injuries as they had left the village prior to the attack beginning. Residents have reported that assailants in the area cut the phone network. By late afternoon, security forces stationed nearby had driven the attackers out. A senior military official blamed the attack on a group of ethnic Peuhls infiltrated by fighters believed to be link to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The military source has suggested that the attackers could be the same group who attacked the village of Misseni in Sikasso earlier this month. The group, known as the Massina Liberation Front, is also suspected of clashing with government troops in the central Mopti region this month and has been blamed for several recent attacks.

On Saturday, at least twelve people, including three soldiers, were killed when suspected extremists attacked the village of Nara, located 30 kilometres (19 miles) south of the border with Mauritania. A statement released by the Malian government disclosed that gunfire erupted at around 5:00 AM local time. While the statement did not identify the assailants, a senior army officer has disclosed that military intelligence and initial witness accounts indicate that the attackers were Islamist fighters mainly from the Peuhl ethnic group. On Sunday, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita held a defense council meeting. Officials have since reported that the government will increase security in the border regions with Ivory Coast and Mauritania.

On Monday, the Malian government appealed for calm a day after jihadists ransacked a town near the Ivory Coast border in what is the second attack to occur in the south in less than three weeks. A government statement released Monday disclosed that the army has been deployed to the area to hunt down the militants, who escaped after ending their brief occupation. The statement read, “the government of the republic of Mali strongly condemns these barbaric attacks aimed at sabotaging the actions for peace and stability in Mali… The government…asks the population to remain calm and cooperate with the defense and security forces in their fight against terrorism.”

While incursions in the south remain extremely rare, the group was said to have been behind an ambush that occurred less than three weeks ago in the nearby town of Misseni, when jihadists killed a policeman and hoisted their flag at a military base.

Security Advisory: Tunisia and Kuwait

Security Advisory:  Tunisia (26 June)

Executive Summary

At least twenty-seven people have been killed, amongst them several foreigners, in an attack that targeted a beach near two tourist hotels in the Tunisian resort town of Sousse on Friday. The attack occurred at a beach near the Hotel Imperial Marhaba. The Tunisian interior ministry has disclosed that the death toll is likely to increase in the coming hours as the situation on the ground is ongoing. Tourists near the site of the attack are now gathering in hotel reception and hiding in rooms as the situation develops. Officials have reported that one gunman has been shot dead while another is being pursued.

Sousse, a popular tourist destination, is located 140 kilometres (87 miles) south of the capital Tunis.

Friday’s attack comes on the same day as a man was decapitated and several others were injured at a factory in southeastern France; and a deadly attack targeted a Shi’ite mosque in Kuwait City, Kuwait. An Islamic State-affiliated group has claimed the attack in Kuwait. Friday’s attack in Tunisia also comes as the Islamic State (IS) militant group has called on its followers to increase attacks during the holy Muslim month of Ramadan, which began last week. No one yet however has claimed responsibility for this attack.

Security Advisory

The situation at a hotel resort in Sousse, Tunisia is ongoing. One suspect has been killed by officers while another remains on the loose.

MS Risk advises any travellers near the site of the incident to follow the instructions of local security officials and to take shelter.

There is currently a high threat from terrorism, including kidnapping. Attacks can be indiscriminate and can occur in places that are frequented by foreigners. Since March this year, Tunisia has been on high alert after militants killed twenty-two people, mainly foreign tourists, in an attack on a museum in the capital city, Tunis.

MS Risk currently advises against all travel to the following areas of the country:

• The Chaambi Mountain National Park area;
• The Tunisia-Algeria border crossing points at Ghardimaou, Hazoua and Sakiet Sidi Youssef;
• The militarized zone south of, but not including, the towns of El Borma and Dhehiba;
• Within 5 kilometres of the border area with Libya from north of Dhehiba up to, but not including, the Ras Ajdir border crossing.

MS Risk currently advises against all but essential travel to:

• Areas south of, and including, the towns of Nefta, Douz, Medenine, Zarzis (including the Tunisia-Libya border crossing point of Ras Ajdir)
• Within 30 kilometres of the border with Algeria south of, and including, the town of Jendouba (this areas includes the archaeological sites of Bulla Regia and Chemtou;);
• The governorate of Kasserine, including the town of Sbeitla.

There has been a previous suicide bomb attack in the resort town of Sousse. On 30 October 2013, a blast occurred at 09:45 local time, with no-one sustaining injuries, except for the bomber. The blast occurred close to the Ridah Palms hotel. The male attacker, who was wearing a belt of explosives, was killed. Witnesses reported that the bomber was seen and was chased away from the hotel, eventually blowing himself up on an empty beach.

Security Advisory: Kuwait (26 June 2015) 

Executive Summary

At least ten people were killed Friday after a suicide bomb exploded at a Shi’ite Muslim mosque in the Kuwaiti capital. Officials have reported that many people were injured in the attack, and unconfirmed reports have placed the death toll much higher.

The blast occurred during Friday prayers and targeted the Imam Sadiq Mosque in al-Sawaber, which is a busy area to the east of Kuwait City. According to Kuwait parliament member Khalil al-Salih, worshippers were kneeling in prayer when a suicide bomber walked into the mosque and blew himself up. Witnesses in the mosque have reported that the suicide bomber looked to be in his 20s. The governor of Kuwait City, Thabet al-Muhanna, has disclosed that the mosque was filled with some 2,000 people when there was a loud explosion. Footage that has since been posted online depicts men walking around in a smoke-filled room with rubble on the floor. Friday midday prayers are typically the most crowded of the week, with attendance significantly increasing during the holy Muslim month of Ramadan, which began last week.

The Kuwaiti emir, Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, has arrived on scene and the Interior Ministry has told citizens to stay away from the area in order to allow the authorities to carry out an investigation.

Shortly after the explosion, an Islamic State- (IS) affiliated group, calling itself the Najd Province, claimed responsibility for Friday’s attack. In a statement that was posted on a Twitter account, which is known to belong to IS, the militant group stated that it targeted a “temple of the rejectionists” – a term it usually uses in order to refer to Shi’ite Muslims. While IS has previously carried out similar attacks in neighbouring Saudi Arabia and Yemen, this is the first suicide bombing attack on a Shi’ite mosque to occur in the small Gulf state. In recent weeks, Najd Province has claimed responsibility for a pair of bombing attacks that targeted Shi’ite mosques in Saudi Arabia. The attack also comes after IS on Tuesday urged its followers to step up attacks during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan against Christians, Shi’ites and Sunni Muslims fighting with a US-led coalition against the radical group.

Security Advisory

While there is currently no nationwide advisory in effect for Kuwait, MS Risk advises all travellers to the Gulf country to exercise a high degree of caution, particularly in Kuwait city. This is due to a general threat of terrorist attacks. Further attacks cannot be ruled out and could be indiscriminate, occurring in places that are frequented by foreigners.

Any travellers currently in Kuwait, and specifically in Kuwait City, are advised to stay clear of the al-Sawaber area of the city. Authorities have closed off the area near the Imam Sadiq Mosque, however further attacks may occur in other areas of the city. Jihadists groups operating in the Middle East and in Africa have warned that they will increase their tempo of attacks during the Ramadan period, which began last week. Militants are likely to target mosques in the capital city, specifically during prayer times. MS Risk advises all travellers to maintain a high level of vigilance.

Migration Crisis

The volatile situation in Middle East and in North Africa, along with the economic recession that plagues many states, have resulted in increased migratory flows found in overcrowded boats heading towards Europe. Data collected from the EU border agency Frontex in the first two quarters of 2015 present a worrisome situation since the percentage of irregular migrants attempting to cross to Europe is much higher than in the same period last year. Italy and Greece are on the frontline due to their geographical position and their proximity to areas such as Libya where the conflict and the lack of political control has created a fertile ground for the smugglers. Italy and Greece have been unable to shoulder alone the heavy load of irregular migration and they have urged their EU partners to do more to help.

The number of migrants reaching Greece by sea has soared to 63,000 this year, surpassing the 62,000 who arrived in Italy by sea. This increase of the migratory flows towards Greece can be explained by the fact that the voyage from Libya to Italy is longer and more hazardous. Migrant deaths at sea this year reached 1,865 by June 10, and of those, 1,816 died trying to reach Italy. A shipwreck off Italy’s Lampedusa island on 19 April took some 800 lives. So, more migrants, especially Syrians, choosing Greece as their destination instead of attempting to follow the Libya route. To the present, according to Frontex, some 153,000 irregular migrants have been detected at Europe’s external borders. That is a 149 percent increase compared with the same period in 2014 when the total was 61,500. One of the biggest operations that tested Italy’s and other states’ rescue teams’ abilities and underlined the need for an immediate solution took place on 6-7 June. During these two days nearly 6,000 people were rescued from the sea and taken to southern Italy. A surge has also been detected towards the Greek island of Lesvos where daily the authorities have to rescue migrants packed on flimsy rubber dinghies or small wooden boats, putting a huge strain on local resources. The mainland borders of Greece are not to be ignored since they remain a major transit point using Turkey or nearby Balkan countries hoping to reach one of the countries in northern Europe. Additionally, Hungary has emerged as another major pressure point. From January to the end of May 50,000 irregular migrants attempted to cross the borders from Serbia into Hungary, an 880 percent increase compared with the same period last year. Due to these increased numbers, Hungary’s authorities have urged EU not to send back migrants that their entry point was Hungary. At the same time, the government announced its plan to erect a fence across its border with Serbia to discourage future migrants from choosing Hungary as their entry point into Europe.The civil war in Syria has triggered a huge flow of migrants towards Europe declaring Syrians as the largest migrant group by nationality with more than 8,000 people. Then come migrants from Eritrea with more than 3,000 and Somalia with more than 2,900.

In November 2014 Italy ended its search and rescue mission called Mare Nostrum. It was replaced by a cheaper and more limited EU operation called Triton, focused on patrolling within 30 nautical miles of the Italian coast. However, under the increased migratory flows Triton proved to be inadequate. After argument due to the strain under which the coastal guards were in, the EU leaders decided to triple funding for operation Triton reaching the spending levels of Italy’s Mare Nostrum. At the same time, many European leaders committed to send naval assets to the Mediterranean in an attempt to shoulder some of the burden the European countries of the south face.

At an emergency summit on 23 April, EU leaders agreed to strengthen maritime patrols in the Mediterranean aiming at disrupting people trafficking networks and capture and destroy boats before migrants board them. However, any military action will have to conform with international law. EU’s new plans focused on eliminating the smugglers and handling the condition that facilitated their existence, focusing on the Libyan crisis. The EU was seeking a UN mandate that would allow military action to destroy or halt smugglers’ boats in Libyan waters. According to EU these operations fall under chapter seven of the UN charter that authorises the use of force to maintain international peace. However Libya criticised EU proposals stating that EU’s intentions were unclear and ‘’very worrying’’. At the same time, military action could leave migrants trapped in Libya in desperate conditions. According to rights group Amnesty International many migrants reported that they were driven to make the journey across the Mediterranean in a haste under the threat of ‘’horrific abuse’’, including abduction, torture and rape in Libya.

Recently, EU’s efforts to tackle the migration problem have focused on the introduction of new measures that impose migrant quotas on the 28 countries of the union under a distribution ‘’key’’ system. The states will be required to accept asylum seekers in proportions to the size of their economy, unemployment rate and population. The commission’s proposals would start modestly, calling for the distribution across the EU of 60,000 Syrian and Eritrean asylum-seekers, 40,000 already in Italy and Greece and 20,000 still to make the Mediterranean crossing. The plan was greeted with mixed reactions. UK, Denmark and Ireland were given the option not to participate in the quota system due to special opt-outs with the EU on asylum policy. Germany accepted the plan but demanded some corrections been made. Italy, Austria and Sweden has also supported the plan. However, many countries have strongly opposed to the plan, such as France, Poland, Spain, Estonia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Baltic states deeming it unfair and against their national interests. At the same time, the countries that oppose the plan pointed that the redistribution of asylum seekers may contravene the UN convention to refugees, which enshrines the right of people to file for refugee status in the country of arrival. For the implementation of the plan France’s and Spain’s support, along with Germany’s, is necessary. Some other measures considered by EU are:

• Additional funding for operations by Frontex;
• An extra 50 million euros ($56 million) for an EU-wide resettlement scheme, to offer 20,000 places across member states to displaced people in clear need of international protection in Europe;
• The possibility of organising a joint security operation in the Mediterranean to dismantle smugglers’ networks by capturing and destroying their boats;
• The collaboration with migrants’ countries of origin and nations that are major transit points to try to stem the flow of migrants before they are put on boats, including by helping them to strengthen their borders;
• The introduction of a new policy on legal migration to reduce the incentive for people to seek to enter illegally and making sure all EU states share a common policy on asylum process.

However, in many cases, the adoption and implementation of these measures is obstructed by the internal problems that EU currently faces such as the surge of right-wing parties in many countries, the economic difficulties that many countries face and the high unemployment rates. Even if the EU approves the proposed quotas system its implementation is going to be difficult if one considers the sporadic implementation of the existing asylum system under the Dublin Regulation. According to this regulation, responsibility for examining the claim lies primarily with the member state which played the greatest part in the applicant’s entry or residence in the EU. Often that is the first EU country that the migrant reached, but not always, as in many cases migrants want to be reunited with family members that often resident in other European states. Its full implementation is dubious since many countries, such as Greece, complain they are inundated with applications since their geographical position makes them the more accessible entry points of the migrants. Germany and Finland have already stopped sending the migrants back to Greece despite the regulation being in full effect. Under this conditions more and more states decide to act unilaterally in an effort to protect their national interests. Austria threatened to reimpose controls on its Hungarian border and UK is considering increasing security around the French port of Calais. Hungary announced that it will no longer readmit asylum seekers who had traveled to other EU countries after officially entering the EU’s border-free Schengen area in Hungary. At the same time, the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, said that if no equitable deal is struck, Italy will start issuing migrants with temporary visas allowing them to travel elsewhere in Europe, stop receiving the hundreds of boats arriving from Libya and refuse docking for foreign ships rescuing those stranded at sea.

Judging by the way the European states responded to the proposed quotas plan, and the unilateral actions that they adopted to secure their nations against the migration problem it seems that the solution of the migration problem will not be achieved anytime soon. The states seem to be reluctant to accept the fact that the migration crisis is a European problem and a common comprehensive approach is needed. An approach that will not only solve the distribution of the migrants but will view it not as the main problem but as a symptom that arises though causes such as the conflicts, instability and poverty that infest many countries at the European neighbourhood.

Ebola Update (25 June 2015)

Despite hopes rising that the Ebola outbreak in West Africa could soon be contained, after Liberia was declared free of the deadly virus in early May, the latest figures released Wednesday by the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate that the outbreak is showing no signs of abating in Guinea and may be flaring up once again in neighbouring Sierra Leone.

In the week leading up to 21 June, there were 20 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) compared with 24 cases that were recorded the week before. According to officials, while the weekly case incidence has stalled between 20 – 27 cases since the end of May, cases continue to arise from unknown sources of infection and are typically detected only after post-mortem testing.

During this reporting period, only 6 of the 12 cases that were reported in Guinea and 4 of the 8 cases reported in Sierra Leone were registered contacts of previous cases. As of 21 June, there were 2,003 contacts being monitored across 4 prefectures in Guinea and 1,023 contacts were under follow-up in 3 districts in Sierra Leone.

There have been a total of 27,443 reported confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 11,207 reported deaths.

Guinea

During this reporting period, Guinea confirmed 12 cases in the same four prefectures as reported cases in the previous week: Boke, Conakry, Dubreka and Forecariah. According to WHO officials, while cases have been reported from the same 4 prefectures over the past three weeks, data indicates that the area of active transmission within these prefectures has changed and in some cases, it has expanded.

In the northern prefecture of Boke, which borders Guinea-Bissau, officials have reported that the main focus of transmission has switched from the coastal sub-prefecture of Kamsar to the more urbanized sub-prefecture of Boke Centre. In the week leading up to 21 June, two cases that were reported in Boke were health workers.

During this reporting period there was one case reported in the capital Conakry. The case was recorded in the Matam area of the city and arose from an unknown source of infection. Three cases that were reported in the capital city in the previous two weeks are suspected to have generated a large number of high-risk, untraced contacts.

In Dubreka, one case was reported during this period in the sub-prefecture of Tanene. While the origin of this case currently remains unknown, officials have disclosed that preliminary investigations indicate that it is linked to previous cases in the same sub-prefecture.

The prefecture of Forecariah continues to be the most complex in terms of transmission, with multiple chains of transmission remaining active across 3 sub-prefectures. This has been an issue that has affected this prefecture over the past several months. In the week leading up to 21 June, three of the 5 cases that were reported in Forecariah arose from an unknown chain or chains of transmission.   Furthermore, two of those three cases were reported from a sub-prefecture, Benty, which has not reported a confirmed case since mid-March. Both cases in Benty and another possible related case from a neighbouring sub-prefecture were identified after post-mortem testing was carried out.

The upcoming election, due to be held in October, is now adding another layer of worry to both Guineans and local health workers, with some residents stating that campaign events, where people crowd together, should not be held yet. 

Sierra Leone 

During this reporting period, Sierra Leone recorded 8 cases in three districts: Kambia, Port Loko and the district that includes the capital city, Freetown, which reported confirmed cases for the first time in over two weeks.

Compared with neighbouring Guinea, transmission in Sierra Leone has been more geographically confined over the past three weeks, with cases remaining clustered in several chiefdoms of the districts of Kambia and Port Loko. However, figures for this reporting period indicated a worrisome development, as 2 cases were reported from the Marampa chiefdom in Port Loko for the first time since the beginning of March. Additionally, two cases were also reported from the area that includes the capital city for the first time in over two weeks.

In Kambia, both cases were reported in the Tonko Limba chiefdom, which has been the primary focus of transmission in Kambia over the past three weeks. According to local officials, both cases are registered contacts and were residing in a quarantined dwelling at the time of symptom onset.

During this reporting period, four cases were recorded in Port Loko. Two cases were reported from the Kaffu Bullom chiefdom, which has been the origin of the majority of cases that have been reported in the West African country over the past three weeks. One of the cases, a health worker, is a registered contact of a previous case while the remaining two cases arose from an as-yet unknown source of transmission.

Officials reported Monday that over the past few days, the country has recorded two new cases of Ebola in the capital Freetown, effectively disproving the assumption that the deadly virus no longer affected the city. According to Sidi Yahya Tunis, a spokesman for the National Ebola Response Centre (NERC), “this is worrisome because we had already closed all Ebola quarantine structures in Freetown since we had gone for weeks without a case.” Tunis further disclosed that there were concerns about further infection as the two cases were reported in Magazine Wharf, which is a densely populated neighbourhood that lacks adequate hygiene facilities. Health officials have disclosed that the first case to be reported in Freetown since 29 May is a fishermen who caught the virus from his girlfriend in the northern district of Port Loko, a northern province that remains affected by Ebola. Shortly afterwards, a family member who lived in the same household also caught the virus.