MS Risk Blog

Ebola Update (10 July 2015)

In the week leading up to 5 July, there were a total of 30 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD): 18 in Guinea; 3 in Liberia; 9 in Sierra Leone. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), while “this is the highest weekly total since mid-May, improvements to case investigation and contact tracing, together with enhanced incentives to encourage case reporting and compliance with quarantine measures have led to a better understanding of chains of transmission than was the case a month ago.” Consequently, this has resulted in a decreasing proportion of cases arising from as-yet unknown sources of infection. This is especially the case in problematic areas, including Boke and Forecariah in Guinea; and Kambia and Port Loko in Sierra Leone. Officials however have warned that significant challenges remain, specifically a lack of trust in the response amongst some affected communities, which means that some cases still evade detection for too long.

To date, there have been a total of 27,573 reported confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 11,246 reported deaths.

Guinea

During this reporting period, a total of 18 cases were reported in Guinea. Cases were reported from the same 3 prefecture as in the previous week: Boke, Conakry and Forecariah.

During the seven days leading up to 5 July, the northern prefecture of Boke, which borders Guinea-Bissau, reported a total of 6 cases, a decline compared with the 10 cases that were reported in the previous week. Accoridng to local medical officials, all but one of the reported cases was a registered contact, with a single cases reported to have arisen from an as-yet unknown source of infection.

There was one case reported in Conakry, with officials indicating that it came from the Matam commune (municipal district) of the city and that it was a known contact of a previous case from Benty sub-prefecture in Forecariah.

The remaining 11 cases were reported in the prefecture of Forecariah, in which 9 of the cases were reported from the sub-prefecture of Benty. All but 2 of the 11 cases reported in the prefecture of Forecariah were known contacts of a previous case or have an established epidemiological link to one.

Liberia

On 9 May, the WHO declared Liberia Ebola-free, after the West African country reported no new cases for 42 consecutive days. Since being declared free of the deadly virus, the country subsequently entered a 3-month period of heightened surveillance. During this time, there were approximately 30 blood samples and oral swabs collected each day from potential cases and tested for EVD. On 29 June, a confirmed case of EVD was detected in Margibi County, the first new confirmed case to be reported in Liberia since 20 March. The case involved a 17-year-old male who first became ill on 21 June. He died on 28 June and subsequently tested positive for EVD. Two contacts of the first-detected case have since tested positive for EVD. These cases are from the same small community as the first detected case. They are currently being treated in an Ebola Treatment Centre in the capital, Monrovia. Additionally another probable EVD case is currently in isolation.

Officials are currently investigating the origin of infection of this cluster of cases. Currently, these cases are considered to constitute a separate outbreak from that which was declared over on 9 May.

Sierra Leone

During this reporting period, 9 cases were reported in Sierra Leone. The cases were reported in the same three districts as the previous weeks: Kambia, Port Loko and Western Area Urban, which includes the capital city Freetown.

Three of the cases reported during this period were recorded in the densely populated Magazine Wharf area of Freetown. Officials have disclosed that all three cases were registered contacts of a previous case.

Four chiefdoms in Kambia each reported a single confirmed case of EVD, as did two chiefdoms in the neighbouring district of Port Loko. According to officials, all but one of these cases were known contacts of a previous case or have an established epidemiological link to one.

On 8 July, Sierra Leonean officials reported that they will extend curfews, which were imposed on the worst-affected communities last month, until the deadly virus has been eradicated. While Operation Northern Push, a drive aimed at ending infections in the northwestern region of the country, was due to last 21 days, with residents of chiefdoms subjected to night-time lockdowns expecting the restrictions to end on Tuesday, Palo Conteh, head of the government’s National Ebola Response Centre, told reporters in Freetown that the 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM lockdowns will continue indefinitely. Speaking to reporters, Conteh stated, “I am pleased to announce that due to the successes we are seeing in a number of key areas Operation Northern Push will continue to run until we get to zero (cases),” adding, “curfew times will remain the same and there will be regular reviews so that we can adapt the response to meet the requirements as they change.”

Historic Negotiations with the Taliban

A delegation from the High Peace Council of Afghanistan has travelled to Pakistan to take part in historic negotiations with the Taliban, raising hopes of a breakthrough between the two groups even as the spring/summer fighting season gathers momentum and insurgent violence escalates.

Following a series of informal talks held by the two sides in various countries, the Afghan delegation met with with their Taliban counterparts on 8 July in Muree, a resort near the Pakistani capital Islamabad. Afghanistan and the United States have previously urged Pakistan to host trilateral talks with the Taliban, as they believe that Islamabad’s influence over the militant group might prove useful in expediting the peace process. It is with this in mind that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has sought out ways of improving diplomatic relations with Pakistan, particularly in regards to increased security and intelligence cooperation. While these efforts have been widely criticised in Afghanistan, Islamabad has – by agreeing to host the talks – shown itself to be 1) susceptible to Ghani’s overtures and 2) committed to the restoration of regional stability.

So far, very little information has been revealed about the nature of the talks or the identities of the participants. On the Afghan side, the four-man team is said to include deputy foreign minister Hekmat Karzai, the nephew of former president Hamid Karzai. As the High Peace Council is supposed to operate independently from the government, Karzai’s inclusion in the negotiating team may been seen as an attempt by Ashraf Ghani to placate the former president, who has fiercely criticised Ghani’s attempts to normalise relations with Pakistan. On the Taliban side, Pakistani intelligence officials have confirmed that the negotiating team is made up of three men, whose identities have yet to be disclosed. Finally, acting as observers, are representatives of the Chinese and American governments.

While the talks have been greeted with expressions of cautious optimism, the road ahead lies strewn with obstacles, chief amongst which is the Taliban itself. Riven by disunity and unwilling to take orders from a leadership in exile, the Taliban is no longer a coherent insurgent group. A Taliban spokesperson has recently come forward saying that the individuals contracting the negotiations in Pakistan have not been authorised to do so, as the office in Qatar is the only channel through which such discussions can be held. Evidently, there is an ongoing rivalry between those members of the Taliban who want to fight and those who want to talk.

A further complication, and one which will certainly occupy the minds of those present in Islamabad, is the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) as a rival insurgent group in Afghanistan. Over the past month, IS militants are believed to have seized territory from the Taliban in six of the twenty one Nangarhar districts. Moreover, witnesses claim that many of the IS fighters are former Taliban militants who have become disillusioned with the group’s failure to reestablish its authority in Kabul. Should this state of affairs be allowed to continue indefinitely, the Taliban runs the risk of complete disintegration. While it is impossible to say at this stage what the outcome of of the talks will be, there is no doubt that the prospect of becoming a spent force will be an important – if not deciding – factor in the militants’ decision making process.

Burundi’s President Misses Key Regional Talks, Opting to Campaign at Home

Burundi’s president on Monday chose to skip key regional talks, opting to stay at home instead in order to campaign for a controversial third term in power as a rebel general threatened to step up attacks.

Leaders of the five-nation East African Community (EAC) bloc met in the Tanzanian capital of Dar es Salaam on Monday to discuss the ongoing political situation in Burundi. A statement released shortly after the summit indicated that East African leaders have called on the Burundian government to delay the 15 July presidential election by two weeks, effectively moving it to 30 July. During the meeting, leaders also named Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni as mediator of a dialogue between the Burundian government and the opposition. The decision comes in the wake of the ruling party stating that UN mediator Abdoulaye Bathily must immediately stop his work as he began without first being received by the government. Nyabenda has indicated that the ruling CNDD-FDD party is ready to work with the Ugandan President Museveni’s mediation efforts. The EAC also called on Burundi to disarm armed groups, including the Imbonerakure, or youth wing of Nkurunziza’s ruling CNDD-FDD party, and for rival factions to form a government of national unity “irrespective of whoever wins the presidential election.”

On Tuesday, Burundi’s ruling CNDD-FDD party indicated that it will conditionally accept the call by the EAC to delay the 15 July presidential election by two weeks, effectively moving it to 30 July. Party chairman Pascal Nyabenda has disclosed that any decision to delay the vote must ensure that the constitution, which mandates that presidential elections cannot go beyond 26 July, is not violated, with the constitution also stating that the president-elect must be sworn in by 26 August. President Nkurunziza opted to miss Monday’s summit and instead sent his foreign minister. Nkurunziza stayed in Burundi to lead his presidential campaign in the central regions of Gitega and Mwaro.

Official results released Tuesday indicate that the ruling party of President Nkurunziza has swept to an expected overwhelming victory in controversial parliament elections that were boycotted by the opposition. The election commission announced that the CNDD-FDD party won 77 out of 100 selected seats in parliament, with two more seats going to its ally UPRONA. The election commission also announced that despite the opposition boycotting the polls, and calling on its supporters not to vote, the coalition Independents of Hope group of Agathon Rwasa and Charles Nditije won 11 seats. The commission has indicated that overall, voter turnout was 74 percent. The opposition has rejected the results, with Rwasa stating shortly after the announcement, “we reject these results because the parliament and legislative elections were not credible.” Both the African Union (AU) and European Union have condemned the polls. Former colonial power Belgium has also stated that it will not recognize the results.

Meanwhile rebel general Leonard Nendakumana, who took part in a failed coup in May, has vowed to carry out further attacks until the government is overthrown. In an interview that was broadcast late Sunday, Nendakumana told Kenya’s KTN news agency, “after we saw that we could not succeed our coup on May 15, we found it was necessary to keep fighting so that we can push Nkurunziza to keep thinking about what he is doing and maybe just resign,” adding, “all those actions that are going on in the country, we are behind them and we are going to intensify them until Pierre Nkurunziza understands that we are there to make him understand by force that he has to give up his third term.” Nendakumana further stated, “there was a need to organize that coup to make a change in the country because the situation was very bad… Mr Nkurunziza and his team were leading the country in a situation of civil war, and we could not accept that our population, our country, were led into a civil war,” adding “they are trying to move towards an open civil war just to find a way to protect themselves.”

General Nendakumana, a top intelligence officer, is an ally of coup leader General Godefroid Niyombare, who has been on the run since their attempt to seize power failed. In more than two months of protests, over seventy people have been killed, with almost 1440,000 refugees fleeing to neighboring countries.

Bombs Explode in Colombian Capital

Two small bombs exploded in the offices of Porvenir, a private pension fund in Bogota, Columbia’s capital on Thursday, injuring eight people. Defence Secretary Luis Carlos Villegas has described the incidents as acts of terrorism, but has refrained from assigning blame to any particular group. No one has stepped forward to claim responsibility for the explosions, but there has been on-going speculation that the country’s largest rebel movement, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), was behind the attack. Bogota’s police commander, General Humberto Guatibonza, has been unable to confirm or deny these allegations, saying only that investigators are still in the process of interviewing witnesses and examining footage captured on nearby security cameras.

The explosions have come at a time of increased tension between the government and the rebel group, who have recently launched a number of high profile attacks on Columbian infrastructure projects.  After implementing a unilateral ceasefire in December last year, 11 members of FARC were killed by government forces in an ambush in April, resulting in the resumption of hostilities. Since then, both sides have launched a series of attacks on one another, throwing into jeopardy the two and a half year long peace talks that have been taking place in Cuba. In addition to its suspected involvement in the Bogota bombings, FARC has, over the past few weeks, bombed several oil pipelines, causing thousands of litres of crude oil to run into nearby rivers, causing an environmental disaster that experts believe will take decades to resolve. Because of this, the Colombian government’s chief negotiator has said that unless FARC shows greater commitment to the peace process, the government may pull out altogether, thereby condemning the Colombian people to a bloody civil war with no foreseeable end.

In response, rebel commander Pastor Alape, a member of the FARC negotiating team in Cuba, said on Sunday that both sides needed to take steps to “deepen the de-escalation of the armed conflict.” He called on President Santos to make “strong gestures…to prove that (he) will become a president of peace.” FARC insists that the Colombian government should agreed to bilateral ceasefire, a move which, until recently, President Santos has entirely rejected. However, the government may be prepared to consider entering into such an agreement if FARC is ready to 1) accept judicial responsibility for any acts of violence perpetrated by its members and 2) renounce its illicit activities including extortion and the drug trade.

Two Blasts Rock Central Nigerian City

According to police officials, two blasts rocked the central Nigerian city of Jos on Sunday, in what is the latest unrest to occur in the region. Emergency services reported Monday that at least 44 people were killed in the twin bomb blasts, which comes after a wave of mass casualty attacks blamed on Boko Haram.

Plateau state police spokesman Abuh Emmanuel confirmed “…that there were two explosions in Jos this evening. One happened at the Bauchi motor park and the other at Yantaya, near the mosque.” He further indicated that he could not immediately state if there were any causalities, adding that police officers have been sent to the scene. On Monday, Mohammed Abdulsalam, from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) disclosed that “at the moment we have 44 dead bodies and 47 others injured from the scenes of the two attacks.”

Witnesses have reported that the first explosion went off around 9:14 PM (2014 GMT) at Bauchi road shopping complex, which is located near the Bauchi motor park and the University of Jos. It targeted the packed Shagalinku restaurant located in the shopping complex, which is popular with travellers from the northeast. One witnesses disclosed that the second explosion was heard four minutes later, adding that it occurred close to the popular Yantaya Mosque. The witness reported that a van and several other vehicles were seen transporting some of the dead and injured to the local hospital. Another witnesses, who was at the Yantaya mosque for the “Tafsir,” or Koran commentary session, reported that a number of attackers opened fire from outside at about 9:20 PM (2020 GMT), adding “they fired an RPG (rocket propelled grenade) at the mosque but it hit a metal bar on the facade and exploded…Many people were killed and injured from the shooting and the explosion.”

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for Sunday’s bomb attacks in Jos, which is the capital of Plateau state. Boko Haram however has repeatedly attacked the city in the past. In February, at least seventeen people were killed when a twin blast hit a bus park in the city.

Sunday night’s twin blasts come just hours after a suicide attack on a church in the northeastern city of Potiskum on Sunday, which left five people dead, including the pastor, a woman and two children.

According to an unofficial count, Sunday’s bombings took the death toll from raids, explosions and suicide attacks to 267 this month along, and to 524 since Muhammadu Buhari became president on 29 May. While President Buhari has repeatedly vowed that he will crush the militant’s six-year insurgency, the rising death toll, coupled with increasing attacks and the military being unable to prevent them, the president is now under growing pressure to react quickly.