MS Risk Blog

Burundi Due to Hold Controversial Presidential Elections on Tuesday

On Tuesday, Burundi will hold controversial presidential elections despite the African country being rocked by deadly protests since April against President Pierre Nkurunziza’s divisive bid to stand for a third term in office. The opposition has maintained that the President’s move is unconstitutional and that it violates a peace agreement that ended a civil war in 2006.

Since the demonstration began, at least 100 people have been killed and scores wounded in clashes that have erupted between demonstrators and police and ruling party militia. The UN has reported that more than 150,000 people have fled to neighbouring countries.

Key Dates and Events Leading Up to Tuesday’s Vote:

Demonstrations Begin

26 April 2015 – Police clash with protesters in several parts of the capital, Bujumbura. The clashes come just a day after President Nkurunziza is declared candidate for a third term in office by his ruling CNDD-FDD party.

Police used live rounds, tear gas and water cannons in order to prevent thousands of youths from marching to the city centre. Demonstrators were shot dead in clashes with police while others were killed in alleged attacks carried out by the ruling party’s youth wing, which have been likened to a militia.

President Nkurunziza’s Candidacy Validated

5 May – The Constitutional Court clears the president to run for at third term in office. The judgement, which was signed by six out seven judges, comes just hours after the court’s vice president fled the country after refusing to sign the judgement and claiming that judges had been subjected to death threats.

Order to Stop the Demonstration

9 May – The government orders protesters to “immediately and unconditionally” end the protests and orders all barricades to be removed within 48 hours however the demands are ignored.

Failed Coup

13 May – A top Burundian general, Godefroid Niyombare, announces the overthrown of President Nkurunziza. The attempted coup occurred hours after the president left the country for neighbouring Tanzania to attend talks with regional leaders on ending the political crisis.

15 May – Coup leaders announce that they are surrendering after failing to capture the state broadcaster from the presidential guard. According to the government, Niyombare avoids capture and goes on the run. President Nkurunziza returns to the presidential palace in the capital city.

Opposition Leader Assassinated

23 May – The leader of a small opposition party, Zedi Feruzi, is shot dead.

Parliament Speaker Defects

28 June – Parliament head Pie Ntavyohanyuma announces that he has fled to Belgium. He denounces the president’s “illegal” bid for a third term.

Legislative and Local Elections

29 June – The ruling CNDD sweeps to an expected overwhelming victory in parliamentary elections that were boycotted by the opposition and which were criticized by the international community

Violent Attacks in Cibitoke Suburb

1 July – Six people, including one police officer, were killed in gun battles in the capital’s Cibitoke district. According to police, five of those killed were members of an armed group.

Call to Delay the Presidential Vote

6 July – East African leaders demand that the Burundian government delay the presidential election by two weeks, until 30 July. Burundian officials however only delay the election by one week, to 21 July

Clashes Erupt in Northern Region of Country

10 July – Clashes erupted between the army and an armed group in the provinces of Kayanza and Cibitoke, near the border with Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. According to the Burundian army, more than 220 people have since been captured there.

Mediation

15 July – Rival political factions meet for crisis talks, which are mediated by Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. It is a last-ditch effort, following months of violence ahead of the presidential elections.

19 July – The talks are suspended, amidst mutual recriminations, after the government fails to show up.

Ebola Update (17 July 2015)

In the seven days leading up to 12 July, there were thirty confirmed cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. While the total number of confirmed cases is the same as during the previous weeks, officials have noted that there has been a shift in the foci of transmission. During this reporting period, Guinea recorded 13 cases; Liberia 3; and Sierra Leone 14.

For the first time in several months, most of the cases that were reported during this period occurred in the capitals of Guinea (Conakry) and Sierra Leone (Freetown).

There have been a total of 27,642 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and 11,261 reported deaths. As of 12 July, there are 3,552 contacts being monitored across 6 prefectures in Guinea; 2 counties in Liberia and 3 districts in Sierra Leone.

Guinea

Guinea recorded 13 confirmed cases of EVD in 3 prefectures: Conakry, Forecariah and Fria. For the first time in several months, the majority of the cases reporting during this week, 9, occurred in the capital, with seven of the 9 cases being reported in the Ratoma commune (administrative district). The remaining two were reported from the neighbouring commune of Matam. Officials have indicated that all of the cases are either registered contacts or have an epidemiological link to a known chain of transmission.

The small western prefecture of Fria reported a confirmed case this week for the first time in over forty days. Officials have indicated that the case is a contact of a previous case in the northern prefecture of Boke.

The northern prefecture of Boke, which had been a focus of transmission for several weeks, has not reported a case in eleven consecutive days, however officials have warned that cases may still arise as 125 contacts associated with previous cases are still being monitored.

Liberia

During the reporting period, there were three new cases recorded in Liberia, bringing the total number of cases sine 29 June to six.

Officials have indicated that all of the three confirmed cases reported in the week leading up to 12 July were registered contacts associated with the same chain of transmission as the three cases reported in the previous week.

Sierra Leone

During this reporting period, there were 14 confirmed cases recorded in three districts: Freetown, Kambia and Port Loko. This is the highest total since the second week in June.

For the first time in several months, the majority of cases were reported in the capital city, Freetown. According to officials, eight of the 10 cases reported from the capital were registered contacts residing in quarantined homes in the Magazine Wharf area of the city, which has been a focus of transmission for several weeks. The two remaining cases both have an epidemiological link to the Magazine Wharf chain of transmission however they were identified after post-mortem testing and therefore represent a high risk of further transmission.

There were two cases reported in Kambia, in the Samu chiefdom on the northern border with Forecariah, Guinea. Officials have indicated that both cases were known contacts of a previous case. The remaining case was reported from a quarantined home in Tonko Limba chiefdom, and was also a registered contact of a previous case.

There was one case reported in Port Loko, in the chiefdom of Marampa. The source of infection is currently under investigation.

Afghanistan Claims IS Leader Killed in Drone Strike

Afghanistan’s domestic intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security (NDS), has issued a statement claiming that the leader of the Islamic State (IS) terror group in Afghanistan and Pakistan was killed in a drone strike in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar on Friday. Hafiz Saeed – a former Pakistani Taliban commander who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in January – is believed to be among at least thirty other IS militants killed during the attack. Two IS commanders, formerly members of the Taliban, were present when the drone struck and have since confirmed Saeed’s death. A US military spokesperson in Afghanistan has also confirmed that a strike was carried out in Nangarhar but has declined to give any further details.

However, an audio recording of an individual believed to be Hafiz Saeed has since been posted on the Islamic State’s Arabic website. Speaking in the local Pashto language, the as-yet unidentified individual talks about the Islamic State’s desire to implement sharia law in Afghanistan. He also comments on the recent battles between IS militants and members of the Taliban in Nangarhar and the Pakistani security service’s influence over certain members of the latter group. While the authenticity of the audio recording has not been independently verified, it does cast doubt over whether or not Saeed was in fact killed during the Nangarhar drone strike. While this is not the first time that Saeed has been reported killed, his death could represent a major blow to the Islamic State’s ambitions in Khorasan, a geopolitical entity that encompasses both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

While Saeed is the most high profile IS commander to have been targeted recently he is by no means the only one. Earlier in the week, two senior Pakistani militants were also killed in a drone strike in Nangarhar. Security officials reporting on the incident have confirmed that one of the men, Gul Zaman, was Saeed’s deputy in Afghanistan, while the other, Shahidullah Shahid, was the Pakistani Taliban’s principal spokesperson until he defected to join the IS last year. Both men were killed in a US drone strike on a leadership council meeting of the Islamic State in Khorasan. A spokesperson for the Afghan NDS confirmed the strike in a public statement. However, the death toll remains unclear with reports ranging from 24 to 45 fatalities.

Iran Signs Historic Nuclear Agreement with World Powers

On Tuesday, major powers reached an agreement with Tehran aimed at ensuring that the country does not obtain a nuclear bomb and which will also open up the country’s stricken economy.

The agreement, which was reached on day 18 of marathon talks in Vienna, is aimed at ending a 13-year standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions after repeated diplomatic failures and threats of military action. Both Iran and the European Union have hailed the agreement as a new chapter of hope for the world. At the start of a final meeting to formally sign off on the accord, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini stated, “I think this is a sign of hope for the entire world and we all know this is very much needed in this time,” adding, “it is a decision that can open the way to a new chapter in international elations and show that diplomacy, coordination, cooperation can over come decades of tensions and confrontation.” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that the agreement is a “historic moment,” noting, “we are reaching an agreement that is not perfect for anybody but it is what we could accomplish and it is an important achievement for all of us.” The agreement effectively places strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities for at least a decade and calls for stringent UN oversight, with world powers hoping that this will make any attempts to make an atomic bomb virtually impossible. In return, international sanctions will be lifted and billions of dollars in frozen assets will be unblocked. The agreement, which was built on a framework in April is US President Barack Obama’s crowning foreign policy achievement and comes six years after he told Iran’s leaders that if they “unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” The agreement may also lead to further cooperation between Washington and Tehran.

The head of the UN atomic watchdog announced Tuesday that he has signed with Iran a “roadmap” for probing suspected efforts to develop nuclear weapons, a key part of an overall accord with major powers. Ahead of the expected announcement of the historic agreement with major powers, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Yukya Amano stated that he “…just signed the roadmap between the Islamic republic of Iran and the IAEA for the clarification of past and present outstanding issues regarding Iran’s nuclear programme,” adding that he aims to issue a report on the watchdog’s investigation by 15 December. According to Amano, the roadmap “sets out a clear sequence of activities over the coming months, including the provision by Iran of explanations regarding outstanding issues. It provides for technical expert meetings, technical measures and discussions, as well as a separate arrangement regarding the issue of (Iranian military base) Parchin,” adding “this should enable me to issue a report setting out the Agency’s final assessment of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme, for the action of the IAEA board of Governors, by 15 December 2015.” The wider accord between six major powers and Iran is expected to be announced in Vienna later on Tuesday.

Mexican Officials Launch Search for Fugitive Drug Kingpin

Mexican officials are searching for Joaquin Guzman, the fugitive drug kingpin who escaped from Mexico’s toughest prison, Altiplano, along a 1.5 kilometre long tunnel some 90 kilometres west of Mexico City. Known as “El Chapo” (Shorty) for his diminutive stature, Guzman is the head of the Sinaloa cartel, an organised criminal syndicate based in the city of Culiacán, Sinaloa. In recent years, it has smuggled billions of dollars of marijuana, cocaine and methamphetamine into the United States and has fought numerous bloody battles for pre-eminence with other Mexican cartels. Since the arrest of Osiel Cárdenas of the Gulf Cartel in 2003, Guzman is considered by US authorities to be the most powerful drug trafficker in the world.

In a statement issued by Mexico’s National Security Commission, Guzman – who had been in detention since February 2014 – was last seen by prison officials entering the shower area of his cell at 8.52 pm local time on Saturday. When his cell was subsequently investigated, a hole ten metres deep was found in the floor of the shower area. This led down to a 1.5 kilometre long tunnel which appears to have been professionally excavated. Police found a motorcycle mounted on rails that is thought to have been used to remove dirt as the tunnel was being dug as well as equipment for pumping in fresh air. The tunnel led to an abandoned house which enabled Guzman to resurface and complete his getaway unseen. Locals claim that this property was purchased by outsiders almost a year ago and that construction work has been going on ever since it was taken off the market.

Mexico’s Federal Attorney General’s Office has announced that its organised crime unit is currently in the process of interviewing thirty prison employees, to determine whether or not Guzman’s escape was made possible by an insider. Given that he was able to successfully bribe his way out of prison in 2001, speculation that his jailbreak was aided and abetted by prison authorities has been widely debated. Adding his voice to those who believe the escape was an “inside job” is Mexico’s Interior Minister Angel Osorio Chong, who has fired Altiplano’s prison director and the head of the national penitentiary system in an attempt “to facilitate” the investigation.

In a gesture of solidarity, US Attorney General Loretta Lynch has announced that “The US government stands ready to work with our Mexican partners to provide any assistance that may help support his swift recapture.” However, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto has expressed his confidence in the police’s ability to hunt down the escapee, saying in an interview that they possess the “strength and determination to recapture this criminal.” A 60 million peso (US$3.8 million) reward for information leading to Guzman’s capture has been offered.