MS Risk Blog

Calais Crisis

Despite the fact that news outlets and the public have recently focused on the thousands of migrants from Afghanistan, Syria, Sudan and Eritrea descending on Calais waiting for a chance to cross the tunnel towards the United Kingdom, the problem is far from new. In 1999, the Sangatte refugee camp opened in Calais creating controversy between the people that supported the existence of a place were the migrants could stay in and the people that highlighted the dangers of the migrants’ presence in the area. The camp attracted thousands of would-be asylum seekers and people traffickers. The camp was closed in 2001 and 2002, on the orders of Nicolas Sarkozy that was placed as Minister of Interior in the French government at the time. Despite the closure of the camp, migrants continued to arrive in Calais and create makeshift camps near the port since the port did not lose its value due to its proximity to the UK borders, making it the ideal location for the migrants to cross towards the UK. The inhuman conditions that the migrants live in while waiting to cross the channel, and the ever increasing number of migrants descending in Calais has led to protests organised by the migrants for a treatment that respects their basic human rights. French authorities estimate that currently there are about 3,000 migrants living in these makeshift camps known as ‘’the Jungle’’ waiting to cross the Channel. One of they ways the migrants use attempting to cross to UK is by stowing away on lorries bound for cross-Channel ferries. During recent strikes by French ferry workers that resulted in closing the Channel Tunnel, the migrants stranded in Calais openly tried to board lorries stick in traffic on the roads leading to the port. At the same time, there have also been reports of migrants attempting to hide in people’s cars. However, recently, activity has shifted more to the Channel Tunnel. Nowadays migrants attempt to stow away on lorries headed for the Eurotunnel, or jump or cut security fences to try to hide on Eurotunnel trains themselves. There have been incidents reported claiming that migrants have tried to cross the Eurotunnel on foot. The attempts to reach UK have been proved fatal for many of these migrants, with more than ten incidents were migrants lost their lives when hit by passing trucks and trains during their attempt to cross the Channel. Eurotunnel has highlighted the increase of what it describes as ‘’nightly incursions’’ with groups up to to hundreds of migrants attempting to beach security all at once, and how that obstructs the operation of Eurotunnel. Due to these incidents, in July, Eurotunnel asked the French and British governments to pay almost 10 million euros to cover the cost of extra security measures that the migrant crisis has made necessary. Part of these sum is going to be given as compensation to tourist passengers due to the frequent disruptions in the operations of Eurotunnel in incidents involving migrants and strikes by ferry workers. According to Eurotunnel officials, the company has spent 13 million euros on additional security in the first half of 2015, which is the same as it spent in the whole of 2014.

The French and British governments have agreed the introduction of more security measures to tackle the problem. In 2014, the British government pledged 12 million pounds over three years to assist France in handling the problem. In July 2015, the UK announced a further 2 million pounds for a new secure zone at Calais for UK-bound lorries. It later was confirmed that it would provide an additional 7 million pounds for measures to improve security at Calais and the entrance to the Channel Tunnel. At the same time, UK Immigration Minister James Brokenshire announced the creation of the ‘National Barrier Asset’ (NBA) that will be deployed to the French end of the Eurotunnel, at the terminal at Coquelles, to prevent irregular migration. NBA is a collection of temporary security barriers, mainly consisting of a large modular 9ft high fence, established in 2004 to provide police with the ability ‘to protect high profile locations or temporary events’. The fence is designed to withstand an impact from a 7.5-tonne vehicle travelling at 50mph. British authorities believe that the fence will help quell attempts by migrants to cross the English Channel. The port of Calais is currently protected by 16ft fences topped with coils of razor wire and CCTV, with the gates and exterior guarded by heavily armed French riot police. French police have been heavily criticised for taking migrants off lories, driving them a few miles away and then releasing them, knowing that the migrants will head back to Calais renewing their attempts to cross. However, according to the police, the problem is that there are simply too many to arrest and deal with, making it impossible for them to cope with the increasing influx of migrants descending in Calais. At the end of July, an extra 120 French riot police was deployed to Calais, however, it is not believed that the existing number of police force present in Calais is enough to stop the migrants’ attempts. Recently, there have been pledges by the head of the Alliance union for police deployed to Calais for additional help, with many calling for the deployment of the British army to help curb the crisis. UK has already received 27 million euros for the European Commission in emergency aid funding, which it applied for in March. France will receive its 20 million euros by the end of August. However, according to the Commission’s representative, neither country requested additional aid for security in Calais and will not receive funds from the aid program.

The situation in Calais is not an isolated problem but part of the wider migration crisis in Europe, caused by the instability in countries near the European continent, such as the displacement of people from war-torn countries such as Syria, Afghanistan and Eritrea and economic crisis that plagues many African states. For these people, UK is their final destination where many will either enter as asylum seekers, and others will try to enter incognito to remain in the country as illegal workers. This chaotic situation in Calais has resulted in the inability of the authorities to estimate with accuracy how many people have succeeded entering the UK. Home Secretary Theresa May has conceded that ‘a number’ of migrants do make it across the Channel, but no specific figures were given. Both Kent Police and Kent County Council have admitted that they do not hold official figures. The British Prime Minister, in an effort to make UK a less attractive destination for the economic migrants, he vowed that he will throw the illegal migrants out of UK, giving priority to the settlement of asylum seekers in UK.

At the same time, it became obvious that for the better handling of the problem in Calais, the close collaboration between France and UK was necessary. Last week, UK and France signed an agreement on new measures including a control and command centre to help alleviate the migrant crisis in Calais. According to reports, the centre will by jointly run by British and French police and will focus not only on the migrants, but mainly on the people-smugglers operating in the area. The joint command centre will also incorporate the UK Border Force will be led by two senior officers, one British and one French, each reporting to their own government. The joint deal also includes the arrival at Calais of an extra 500 police from the UK and France. Additionally new measures will be introduced, such as sniffer dogs, and additional freight search teams and UK-funded flights that will return the migrants to their home countries.

Despite the obvious problems that the migration crisis has caused across Europe, including the rapidly worsening crisis in Calais, there is another consequence that it has not been brought into greater focus. That consequence has to do with the way the, already rapidly augmenting, far right movements and parties across Europe use the migration crisis to their advantage. From UK, where the crisis in Calais could be used to strengthen the ‘No’ campaign in the forthcoming referendum on the UK’s EU membership, to France that has to face the problem of migration both in Calais and at its common borders with Italy, to Germany where arson attacks destroy shelters for asylum seekers and recent reports estimate that Germany will have to handle some 800,000 asylum claims in 2015.

Despite the fact that the Common European Asylum System is in force and the existence of the quota system that was agreed recently, it seems that rules and decisions are one thing, but putting them into practice EU-wide is another challenge. Not only that, but due to the crisis, there are countries such as Germany that have suspended the Dublin Regulation since they know that returning the asylum seekers back to their entry points, mainly Greece and Italy, it will only prolong the crisis. It is obvious that the existing regulations and measures are not enough to face this crisis, since it is a phenomenon that has never occurred before in such a scale. There is not going to be an easy solution to the migration problem, since its roots will be traced to the instability that reigns in states close the European continent, and if these causes are not terminated the migration flows will continue arriving at the European shores. However, the problem is a European one, and it should be handled as such, with the solution having at its core the migrants’ interests.

Eight Police Officers Killed by Protesters in Nepal

Eight police officers have been killed in western Nepal by protestors armed with axes and spears, as protests over the proposed new constitution continue to escalate. On Monday 24 August, violence erupted in the town of Tikapur as protestors attacked police officers who were attempting to prevent them from gaining access to restricted areas containing government offices. According to Nepalese Home Minister, “All of a sudden protestors encircled the police and attacked them with knives, axes, sickles and spears.” One of the police officers was also set on fire and later succumbed to his injuries. A day later, on Tuesday 25 August, police shot dead a protestor in Gaur, a city 100 kilometres to the south of Kathmandu. They fired into a crowd of around 150 demonstrators who were throwing stones at the cordon of security personnel.

In response, the government has announced a country-wide curfew and is preparing to send the army to Kailali, the western district where the attack took place. Anger has been gradually building in Nepal’s western and southern regions since June, when lawmakers settled a dispute over the number of provinces into which the country would be split, their internal boundaries and their names. While the landmark charter was originally envisioned as a document which would bring an end to centuries of inequality in Nepal, the June decision has resulted in widespread and often violent protests from communities like the Tharu ethnic minority who fear that it might marginalise them even further.

Across the border, concern over the escalating violence has prompted a call for “all political parties and the people to eschew violence and maintain social harmony” from the Indian Foreign Ministry. The statement reflects the fears held by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government that civil unrest in Nepal might spill across the frontier into India.

At least 13 people in total are believed to have died as a result of protests against the new constitution.

South Sudan Peace Agreement

On Wednesday (26 August) South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is expected to sign a peace agreement, which is aimed at ending a 20-months civil war in the world’s newest country, which broke away from Sudan in 2011.

President Kiir met with regional leaders on Wednesday ahead of an expected signing of a peace agreement with rebels. While at least seven ceasefire deals have been agreed, they have all been shattered within either hours or days. Furthermore, concerns over the past couple of days have emerged after the South Sudanese government announced that while its president would sign the agreement, “reservations” about the deal remained, and it currently remains unclear if President Kiir will sign all its clauses.

The latest proposed agreement, which was signed on 17 August by rebel chief and former vice president Riek Machar, sets out clear steps towards power sharing, with fixed timeframes for its implementation. The agreement has been backed by the regional eight-nation bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), as well as the United Nations, African Union, Britain, China, Norway and the United States.

Here are the key points of the 72-page agreement.

Ceasefire

• Fighting must end immediately with a “permanent ceasefire” beginning 72 hours after the deal is singed.
• Troops on either side have 30 days to gather for “separation, assembly and cantonment,” or confinement to barracks, with their weapons kept in storage, with a security review required before an eventual merger of the two forces.
• All foreign forces embroiled in the war, most of which are from Uganda who back Kiir, must leave within 45 days while foreign militias, including rebels from neighbouring Sudan’s Darfur and Nuba mountain regions, must also be disarmed and sent home.
• No troops are allowed within a 25-kilometre (15-mile) radius of the capital Juba, with only presidential guard members, police and guards protecting infrastructure being allowed to remain in the city.
• Child soldiers and prisoners of war must be released and free access given to aid workers.

First Vice-President

• The agreement gives rebels the post of “first vice president,” alongside the current vice president. This effectively means that Riek March would likely regain the post which he occupied before he was dismissed by President Kiir in July 2013, just six months before the war began.
• Signatories also take responsibility for the war, “apologising unconditionally” for the tens of thousands killed in a conflict marked by widespread atrocities on both sides.

Transitional Government

• Under the agreement, a “transitional government of national unity” will take office 90 days after the signing of the deal and will govern for a period of 30 months.
• Elections must be held 60 days before the end of the transitional government’s mandate. This effectively means that if President signs the agreement now, elections will be due to take place in early 2018.
• At a national level, the government will have 53 percent of ministerial posts, with the rebels attaining 33 percent.   The remaining seats will be for other parties.
• In seven of the 10 states, the government will get 85 percent of ministerial posts, however in the battleground states of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile, the government will get 46 percent will the rebels will have 40 percent of posts.
• In the states of Unity and Upper Nile, the main oil regions, which have been amongst the hardest hit areas by the war, the rebels will get to select the powerful post of governor.

War Crime Court

• In order to investigate “all aspects of human rights violations,” a Commission of Truth, Reconciliation and Healing will be set up while a “hybrid court, set up in collaboration with the African Union, will try crimes, including possible genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes.
• Those indicted cannot be part of the transitional government, with the deal stating, “no one shall be exempted from criminal responsibility on account of their official capacity as a government official, an elected official or claiming the defense of superior orders.”

Tensions Ease Between North and South Korea

High level negotiations between Seoul and Pyongyang have eased tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where the possibility of a military clash has loomed large since a rare exchange of fire across the border late last week.

In recent weeks relations between the two states have became increasingly hostile. Earlier this month, two members of a South Korean border patrol were seriously injured in a mine blast, an incident described by Seoul as a cowardly act of provocation which merited “harsh” retaliation. Pyongyang was similarly incensed by the commencement of joint military exercises between South Korea and the US – an annual event which the North believes is preparation for war and the eventual occupation of their capital.

These exercises were temporarily suspended after an exchange of artillery fire across the border on Thursday 20 August. According to South Korea’s defence ministry, shortly before 4pm local time, a single North Korean artillery shell was fired across the border. Minutes later, this was followed by several more shells which fell harmlessly into the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ). In retaliation, South Korea fired dozens of artillery rounds back across the border while placing its troops on maximum alert and ordering the residents of Yeoncheon county to evacuate their homes. So far no one from either side of the border is reported to have been injured in this exchange of fire.

After several troubling days, the standoff ended earlier today when an agreement was reached by negotiators in Panmunjom, an abandoned village north of the Military Demarcation Line where the Korean Armistice Agreement was signed in 1953. Talks began on Saturday evening after Seoul passed a deadline imposed by Pyongyang to end propaganda broadcasts across the border or face the possibility of military action. The South eventually agreed to this demand and in turn, the North agreed to voice its regret over the injuries sustained by the two South Korean soldiers. Former South Korean diplomat and current UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has congratulated both sides for speedily resolving the crisis before it was allowed to escalate and expressed the hope that the two countries could use this decision as a springboard to solve other problems which affect the troubled peninsula.

Second in Command IS Jihadist Killed in US Airstrike in Iraq

The White House on Saturday reported that the second-in-command of the Islamic State jihadist group has been killed in a US airstrike in northern Iraq.

The National Security Council has identified the slain militant as Fadhil Ahmad al-Hayali, also known as Haji Mutaz, adding that he was IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s senior deputy. According to US forces, Hayali was killed, along with an IS “media operative” known as Abu Abdullah, on 18 August in a strict that targeted a vehicle near the city of Mosul. The White House has described Hayali as a member of IS’ ruling council, adding that he was “a primary coordinator for moving large amounts of weapons, explosives, vehicles and people between Iraq and Syria.” The White House further disclosed that Hayali “…supported ISIL operations in both countries and was in charge of ISIL operations in Iraq, where he was instrumental in planning operations over the past two years, including the ISIL offensive in Mosul in June 2014.” Like many senior Iraqi jihadists, prior to joining IS, Hayali had been a member of al-Qaeda’s Iraqi faction, with sources indicated that he was reportedly a former Iraqi officer from the era of Saddam Hussein.

This however is not the first time that US officials have announced Hayali’s death. In December, while speaking to reporters, US defense officials disclosed that Hayali was one of several senior figures who was killed in coalition strikes. At the time, officials provided another of his pseudonyms, Abu Muslim al-Turkmani.