MS Risk Blog

MH370 Closer to Being Located

Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 is now closer to being solved after Malaysia announced Wednesday that a fragment found in Reunion in late June was part of the missing plane. The Boeing 777, which was travelling from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on 8 March 2014, vanished from radar hours after take-off. The plane, which had 239 people on board, has been missing for 515 days.

At a news conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announced that experts examining the debris in France had “conclusively confirmed” that it was from the aircraft. Investigators however have stopped short of confirming the link, stating only that it is highly likely. Late Wednesday, French prosecutor Serge Mackowiak disclosed that there were “very strong indications” that this was the case and that confirmation would only come after further tests have been carried out. The debris located on the remote French island of Reunion in the Indian Ocean a week ago is a wing part known as a flaperon. It washed up on the beach more than 3,700 km (2,300 miles) away from the main search site. It is the first possible trace of the plane. Last week, the part was flown to a military laboratory in the French city of Toulouse, where experts have indicated that they will continue to carry out further tests on Thursday. On Thursday, Malaysia’s transport minister revealed that a Malaysian team in Reunion has collected more apparent plane debris, including a window and some aluminium foil. Liow Tiong Lai noted however that he could not confirm that the items belonged to MH370, stating that he “…can only ascertain that its plane debris.” Officials are also searching neighbouring areas, including Mauritius and Madagascar, to help comb their beaches for possible debris to widen the search.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has been co-ordinating the deep-sea hunt in the southern Indian Ocean, where the plane is believed to have gone down, thousands of miles from Reunion. On Wednesday, Australian prime minister Tony Abbot confirmed that the Australian-led search for the body of the plane would continue. The ATSB has since disclosed that it is possible that debris from the plane could have travelled that distance since the crash more than a year ago. In a statement, officials disclosed, “it is heartening that the discovery of the flaperon is consistent with our search area and we will continue to search this area thoroughly in the expectation we will find the missing aircraft.” Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss has stated that the investigating team is “continuing to finalize its considerations of the wreckage and we will await further detail from them.”

Search Site

Over the past seventeen months, the search for MH370 has changed in scope a number of times, first beginning in the South China Sea. At its largest, the search operation covered 7.68 million sq km (2.96 sq miles) – a total of 2.24 million square nautical miles, effectively the equivalent of 11% of the Indian Ocean and 1.5% of the surface of the Earth. On 16 March, satellite images of possible debris, along with tracking data that was released by the Malaysian authorities, appeared to indicate that the plane crashed in the Indian Ocean, just south west of Australia. After searching an area of more than 2,000 km (1,240 miles) southwest of Perth, authorities later turned to searching more than 1,000 km (600 miles) further north. In April, the search zone was narrowed to an area of 850 sq km (328 sq miles) of the ocean floor to focus on acoustic signals that were detected by Australian teams. In June 2014, a new refined search area was announced, which shifted the focus to an area that covers 60,000 sq km and which is located 1,800 km (1,100 miles) off the west coast of Australia. Authorities have searched around 30% of the priority area, using specialized sonar technology and searching to depths of up to 6,000 m (19,685 ft).

Planes Route

After departing at 00:41, Saturday 8 March 2014 from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 was due to arrive in Beijing at 06:30 (22:30 GMT). Malaysia Airlines has stated that the plane lost contact less than an hour after take-off and that no distress signal or message was sent. While the plane’s planned route would have taking it north-eastwards, over Cambodia and Vietnam, evidence from military radar later revealed that the plane had suddenly changed from its northerly course to head west. Further evidence, released on 15 March, suggested that the jet had been deliberately diverted by someone on board about an hour after take-off.

Former General Expelled from Chinese Communist Party

Guo Boxiong, a former general in the People’s Liberation Army, has been expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and placed under investigation for graft, becoming the most senior military figure to be targeted in President Xi Jinping’s high profile anti-corruption campaign.

For thirteen years, Guo and Xu Caihou – another senior military figure expelled from the Party for corruption – all but controlled the People’s Liberation Army under Jiang Zemin, a former general secretary of the CCP and president and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). With Jiang’s assistance, Guo became a Politburo member and, in 2004, first vice chairman of the CMC.

Xinhua, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) official mouthpiece said that Guo has been accused of accepting bribes in exchange for favours while serving as vice chairman of the CMC.  While no mention has yet been made of specific crimes he is believed to have committed or of individuals who might have benefited from his patronage, the CCP’s Politburo has said in a statement that “[a]n investigation has found that Guo Boxiong exploited his positions to seek gain for others through postings and promotions,” and that he “directly or through family members accepted bribes, gravely violating party discipline.”

The decision to mount a criminal investigation into these allegations is, according to the Politburo, proof that no official, however exalted his position, is immune from prosecution. “No matter what power one holds or how high one’s position is, if a person violates Party rules and law, he or she should be hunted down without compromise and without mercy,” the council has said. In recent months, Xi’s ongoing interest in rooting out top level corruption – or “fighting tigers” to use his own coinage – has been the subject of intense speculation. Guo’s dismissal from the Party and inevitable prosecution for corruption will no doubt assuage some of these fears.

Guo’s eventual downfall was presaged earlier this year by a corruption probe into the activities of his son, Major-General Guo Zhenggang, the deputy political commissar of the military in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and his younger brother, Guo Boquan, head of the Shaanxi Civil Affairs Bureau.

Instability Continues in Burundi a Week After Presidential Elections

Despite the election period in Burundi ending last week, with President Pierre Nkurunziza winning a controversial third term in office, the security situation in the capital city Bujumbura has remained fragile. On Sunday, a top Burundian general, and right-hand man to President Pierre Nkurunziza was killed in a rocket attack on his car. The latest incident in the country has prompted fears of further instability.

Police and eyewitnesses reported that General Adolphe Nshimirimana’s pick-up was hit by two rockets and sprayed with automatic gunfire in the capital Bujumbura on Sunday. The presidency’s communications chief, Willy Nyamitwe, confirmed that the general, a former army chief of staff and intelligence chief, had been killed. The general’s driver was also killed in the attack. Nshimirimana was widely seen as the country’s de facto internal security chief, with many considering him as the regime’s number two. The assassination comes just over a week after Nkurunziza was declared the outright winner of a controversial presidential election, effectively securing a third consecutive term despite opposition protests and international condemnation.

The killing of a top official has also sparked concerns of further instability in Burundi. In a statement, African Union (AU) Commission chief Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma disclosed that she was “horrified” by the assassination. She condemned “this barbaric act that is likely to further destabilise the country,” and urged the Burundian government, opposition political parties and civil society “to work very closely together to find a lasting solution to the current crisis.” The European Union’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini also condemned the attack, warning that it marked “a dangerous escalation of the violence in Burundi.”

Sources in the capital have warned that in the wake of the general’s killing, there may be possible revenge attacks. Police sources have reported that seven arrests were made, with a source in the country’s National Intelligence Service (SNR) stating that security forces were “nervous.” While there has been no immediate claim of responsibility for the assassination, plotters behind the recent failed coup have since regrouped and have launched a rebellion in the northern region of the country. They have also been linked to a string of grenade attacks that occurred in Bujumbura during the lead up to elections last month.

Shots were heard in the capital late Sunday, just hours after the general’s death. While late Monday, a leading rights activist was shot and wounded by unknown assailants in the capital city. Vital Nshimirimana has reported that Pierre Claver Mbonimpa, president of The Association for the Protection of Human Rights and Detained Persons, was fired upon while walking home.

2016 Somali General Elections Unlikely

On Wednesday, the UN envoy for Somalia insisted that the country was making progress, remarks that come just a day after the government stated that elections cannot be held as promised next year.

Nicholas Kay, the top UN diplomat in Somalia, stated that “the road to democracy is there, but 2016 will be a stepping stone short of full democracy.” Kay further indicated that the announcement, which was greeted with dismay in Somalia, was “no surprise,” adding, “it’s a reality we’ve been staring at for quite a while.” Kay spoke on the sidelines of the so-called High-Level Partnership Forum, a meeting of Somali and foreign delegates, which was held in the capital on Wednesday and Thursday. Kay described this week’s meeting as “the largest international meeting in Mogadishu in modern times” with discussions of what will happen in 2016, when the current government’s four-year mandate expires, at the top of the agenda. Kay also indicated that the process of state-building, after decades of civil war and anarchy, and the creation of a federal rather than a centralized administration “is going well but has taken longer than expected.” The last forum was hosted in Copenhagen.

On Tuesday, the Somali government admitted that insecurity and a lack of political progress meant that there cannot be “one man, one vote” elections in 2016 as were envisaged by the UN, foreign diplomats and the government itself. In a statement, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud disclosed that national elections are impossible amidst rampant violence that has been planned and carried out by al-Shabaab. The president denied the opposition’s allegations, stating that his government intends to focus on a review of the Constitution as well as building a strong national army.   Mohamud’s term is due to expire in August. Elected in 2012, Mohamud’s government has struggled to assert its control across the country. While al-Shabaab militants have been driven out of the major strongholds over the years, they still control some parts of rural Somalia, particularly in the southern region of the country, and continue to carry out hit-and-run attacks in Mogadishu. What the electoral process may look like will be decided by the end of the year, with the Somali government due to hold public consultations before presenting proposals to the international community in early 2016.

Meanwhile late on Wednesday, the UN Security Council passed a resolution, which effectively authorizes until May 2016 the deployment of the 22,000-strong African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which is fighting al-Shabaab and protecting the government. The same resolution also extended the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which is headed by UN envoy for Somalia Nicholas Kay, until March 2016.

Violence on the Rise in Mexico

A spate of violence has swept through the neighbouring Mexican states of Veracruz and Tamaulipas over the weekend (25 – 26 July), leaving at least twenty two people dead. Beginning on Saturday afternoon, law enforcement officers from Tamaulipas’ state police encountered a group of armed men while on patrol in the territory between Rio Bravo and Valle Hermoso. According to Mexican authorities, the armed men fired on the police officers in order to avoid being taken into custody. The police officers returned fire, killing nine men who have as yet to be identified. After the gunfight ended, nine long guns, a quantity of ammunition and two vehicles were recovered from the scene.

South of Tamaulipas, in the state of Veracruz, thirteen deaths were reported within a 36 hour period. The killings began on Saturday night, with an official from the Institute of Security and Social Services for State Workers (ISSSTE) gunned in his own home down by two men. The official’s wife, who was present at the time of the attack, is also reported to have sustained serious injuries. Later that night, on a highway in Veracruz’s Yanga municipality, the bodies of three suspected human traffickers were found in the boot of a taxi parked by the roadside. Eyewitnesses have reported that a group of unknown assailants opened fire on the three men, having first allowed the driver to go free.

On Sunday, six bodies, all male and all showing signs of torture, were found in Xalapa, Veraruz’s capital. Another corpse was found on a road in Tlacolulan, a municipality 17 kilometres to the north of Xalapa. While rival criminal syndicates, Los Zetas and the Gulf Cartel, are known to operate in Tamaulipas and Veracruz, it has not yet been established whether either of these groups played any part in the killings.