MS Risk Blog

Two British IS Fighters Killed in Drone Strike

On Monday 7 September, UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced that two British Islamic State (IS) fighters were killed by an RAF drone strike in Syria in an “act of self-defense.”

Speaking to MP’s Prime Minister Cameron disclosed that Cardiff-born Reyaad Khan, 21, was targeted in Raqa on 21 August and died alongside Ruhul Amin, another fighter who was from Aberdeen. The British Prime Minister disclosed that Khan had been plotting “barbaric” attacks at UK public events.   Despite MP’s previously ruling out UK military action in Syria, Cameron indicated that the strike was lawful and necessary.

On Monday, the Prime Minister reported that Khan was killed in a precision strike by a remotely piloted aircraft, “after meticulous planning,” while he was travelling in a vehicle, adding that the legality of the strike had been approved by the attorney general. In his statement to the Commons, Cameron disclosed “my first duty as Prime Minister is to keep the British people safe… There was a terrorist directing murder on our streets and no other means to stop him. This government does not for one moment take these decisions lightly…But I am not prepared to stand here in the aftermath of a terrorist attack on our streets and have to explain to the House why I did not take the chance to prevent it when I could have done.” Shortly after his comments, acting Labour leader Harriet Harman urged the government to publish the legal advice, stating, “why didn’t the Attorney general authorize this special action rather than merely ‘confirming there was a legal basis for it’?”

While two years ago, MP’s rejected possible UK military action in Syria, in September 2014, they approved British participation in air strikes against IS targets in Iraq only. However, officials indicated at the time that the UK would “act immediately (in Syria) and explain to Parliament afterwards” if there was “a critical British national interest at stake.”

Liberia Declared Free of Ebola Spread for the Second Time

On Thursday 4 September, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that Liberia has once again been declared free of the deadly Ebola virus, a move which prompted celebrations in the capital Monrovia.

In a statement released Thursday, the UN health agency indicated “WHO declares Liberia free of Ebola virus transmission in the human population,” adding that it hailed the country’s “successful response” to the recent re-emergence of Ebola. The statement noted that “Liberia’s ability to effectively respond to the outbreak of Ebola virus disease is due to intensified vigilance and rapid response by the government and multiple partners.” While the West African country, where at the height of the epidemic last year thousands died, had already been declared Ebola-free in May, six weeks later the country saw a resurgence of the deadly virus. Six people were infected, including two who died.   While many Liberian’s in the capital city welcomed the news, most are taking it with caution, noting that like the last declaration, there may be further smaller outbreaks that continue over the coming weeks and months.

Liberia was long the hardest hit in the West African Ebola outbreak, which began in December 2013 and which infected more than 28,000 people, claiming the lives of more than 11,000 in Liberia as well as in Guinea and Sierra Leone. More than 10,500 of those infections and 4,800 of the deaths occurred in Liberia.

A country is considered free of human-to-human transmission once two 21-day incubation periods have passed since the last known case tested negative for a second time. Experts however have warned that even after 42 days, the danger is not over, particularly with the fact that small numbers of cases continue to surface in neighbouring Guinea and Sierra Leone. Liberia’s Ebola management department, Francis Karteh, has warned that while the Ebola-free announcement was a cause for celebration, complacency could not be allowed as the fight against the virus is “not yet over,” adding, “as long as there is one person with Ebola in our region, Ebola is still a threat.” Karteh further added that “the Ministry of Health and its partners will continue monitoring Liberia’s borders and rebuilding the healthcare system to assure that Liberians remain safe.”

China Commemorates Anniversary of the end of WWII

As China commemorates the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II with a massive parade through the centre of Beijing’s Tiananmen Square, President Xi Jinping has shocked world leaders by announcing his intention to cut 300,000 troops from the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). While he gave no timeframe for this reduction in China’s military might, it is worth remembering that even with 300,000 fewer troops, Xi and his successors will still be able to command a force of around 2 million troops, the world’s largest standing army by a substantial margin. Xi gave no reason for the cutback, instead stating enigmatically that the PLA’s mission was to defend China and “uphold the sacred task of ensuring world peace.”

In a speech which preceded a highly choreographed show of 12,000 marching troops, missiles, tanks and jet fighter flyovers, Xi stressed China’s commitment to peace and regional security. Despite the enormous and slightly contradictory show of military muscle, Xi maintained that hegemony and expansion were the furthest things from his mind. “We Chinese love peace. No matter how much stronger it may become, China will never seek hegemony or expansion. It will never inflict its past suffering on any other nation,” Xi said to the crowd of handpicked guests, including 1,000 foreign troops who for the first time had been allowed to take part in the parade.

In spite of his protestations that China will remain committed to peaceful development, the thrust of his speech and the parade which followed it could not have been clearer. It sent a message to those at home and abroad – especially to Japan – that China’s military might, and his own abilities as a statesman and commander-in-chief, should not be underestimated.

Al-Shabaab Militants Target African Union Base

Al-Shabaab militants have overrun an African Union (AU) military base in southern Somalia, with officials reporting that they inflicted heavy casualties.

According to sources, at least 50 AU soldiers are believed to have been killed and another 50 have been reported missing after al-Shabaab militants overran a military camp in southern Somalia on Tuesday 1 September. A statement issued late Tuesday, more than 12 hours after the assault, indicated “given the complex nature of the attack, AMISOM is currently verifying the number of casualties and the extent of the damage.” The attack, which saw the militants target the camp in Janale, located 80 kilometres (50 miles) southwest of Mogadishu in the Lower Shabelle region and manned by Ugandan troops, now ranks as one of the deadliest yet against AMISOM troops.

Sources have reported that the attack began with the destruction of two bridges, which cut the camp off. A suicide car bomber rammed the base and was followed by an estimated 200 al-Shabaab fighters who overran the camp. AMISOM has indicated that its troops “undertook a tactical withdrawal” as the attack began. A briefing note disclosed that they soldiers did not have any air support as “low cloud and landing restrictions prevented air support by UN contracted support helicopters.” The note further disclosed that Kenyan and Ethiopian jets as well as US drones “were unavailable at the time of the attack” while AMISOM tanks and artillery located in Janale had been redeployed elsewhere.

Al-Shabaab, which has recently lost a string of key bases in the face of an AMISOM offensive, indicated that the attack was revenge for the killing of seven civilians by Ugandan troops at a wedding in the town of Merka in July.

Venezuelan President Accuses Colombian Government Of Approving Plan to Assassinate Him

While on a state visit to Vietnam, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro accused the Colombian government of approving a plan to assassinate him, as both countries struggle to garner regional support over an ongoing border dispute that has resulted in steadily worsening diplomatic relations. No further details or evidence to back up his accusation were forthcoming from the Venezuelan leader, who has in the past accused the Colombian government of trying to topple his administration.

Maduro’s remarks came as an emergency meeting of diplomats was held at the Organization of American States in Washington to discuss the deteriorating relationship between the two South American powers and the humanitarian crisis it has provoked. So far, Venezuela has closed six border crossings and forced around 10,000 Colombians who have been living illegally in Venezuela back across the border. On Thursday last week Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos condemned Venezuela’s actions as unacceptable and ordered the withdrawal of his ambassador. “I have favoured dialogue and diplomacy and I will keep doing so, but I cannot allow Venezuela to treat Colombia and Colombians this way,” Santos said in Bogota. In response, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez announced that Caracas would also be recalling its own ambassador to Colombia for further consultations. A day later, President Maduro declared a state of emergency in the western state of Tachira, after smugglers in the troubled border region injured three Venezuelan soldiers and a civilian.

For many years, Venezuela has been a destination of choice for Colombians who wanted to escape from conflict and seek out a better life in the wealthy, oil-rich country, and Maduro has promised to maintain his position until Colombian authorities help to restore order to the porous 2,200 kilometre border. It is, however, possible that the Venezuelan leader has been motivated by factors other than the desire to control undocumented migration and paramilitary activity. Falling oil prices and inadequate currency and price controls have led to nationwide shortages of basic commodities which in turn have led to widespread looting and criminality. As Venezuela’s December 6 elections grow ever nearer, it is possible that Nicolas Maduro has exaggerated the seriousness of the border crisis to distract voters from the steep downturn in the economy and the failures of his own administration.