MS Risk Blog

El Salvador’s Murder Rate on the Rise

In a country already convulsed by violence, El Salvador’s murder rate has begun to increase dramatically, with 125 murders reported since Sunday, August 16. National Police Chief Mauricio Ramirez has confirmed that 40 people were killed on Sunday, 42 on Monday and 43 on Tuesday. It is believed that the majority of these deaths were gang related. These figures appear to be in keeping with the murder rates recorded over the first five months of the year, which saw a 50% increase in violent deaths (2192 in total) during the same period last year.

While El Salvador has long been plagued by violence, the levels which it is now being forced to endure have not been seen since the civil war in the 1980s. Murder rates have escalated rapidly and the government has struggled to rein in the powerful street gangs which control entire neighbourhoods in many of the Central American country’s towns and cities. In attempting to explain this trend, authorities say that gang leaders are using violence as a means of pressuring the government into a weakened negotiating position. “They want to exert some pressure and for the government to grant some of the things they are asking for,” said Justice and Public Safety Minister Benito Lara. This year alone, around 50 soldiers and police officers were killed by gang violence, despite the launch of a bold new offensive into the neighbourhoods were the gangs are known to operate.

At the centre of this conflict are the principal criminal groups that hold sway in El Salvador; Mara Salvatrucha, otherwise known as MS-13, and two independent factions of Barrio 18. They emerged after the 1992 peace agreement brought an end to the war between the US backed military and leftist guerrillas and their presence can be felt throughout the country, as drug dealers and extortionists; a damning indictment of successive failed attempts by police to curb the gangs’ growth and operational effectiveness.

Fighting Erupts in Northern Mali

UN peacekeepers have indicated that they will establish a 20-kilometer “security zone” around the town of Kidal after fighting erupted over the weekend, breaking a ceasefire established in the northern region of the country.

The UN Peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) has indicated that they are declaring a security zone around Kidal “to avoid any possible extension of the fighting that could affect the population of the town.” The zone will take effect as of 0800 GMT Tuesday and will “remain until further notice.” According to the mission, any movement within the zone by pro-government Tuareg forces or their allies “will be deemed to constitute an imminent danger to the security of the population of the town of Kidal,” stressing that the peacekeeping force will “act in accordance with its mandate” in the event of any violation.

The move follows deadly clashes between a pro-government group and Tuareg rebels. According to a regional security source, the fighting erupted Monday at Agnefis, about 120 kilometres (74 miles) south of the strategic town of Kidal, “killing several people.” In a statement, MINUSMA officials disclosed that it was a “blatant violation” of the recently agreed Mali peace deal, known as the Algiers Accord, adding “the international community, as well as the population, is concerned by the increasing number of these violations, which could hinder the progress made towards a stable and lasting peace in Mali.” While a MINUSMA security source has indicated that the clashes left “at least 10 dead and many injured,” Fahad Ag Almahmoud, a top official from the pro-government Imghad Tuareg group disclosed that 15 people were killed, including those of some military leaders from the main Tuareg rebel group Coordination of Movements for Azawad (CMA). On Monday afternoon, Ag Almahmoud stated that “the situation has stabilized. The fighting has temporarily stopped.” Security sources however have indicated that they are concerned about the eruption of clashes, particularly as both sides have used heavy weaponry. One source indicated that during Mali’s rainy season, many of the roads become impassable in the north and groups end up fighting each other for control of roads used for trafficking. MINUSMA has indicated that it will carry out investigations to determine responsibility for the ceasefire violation, adding that any findings will be forwarded to the UN Security Council.

Explosion Rocks Bangkok, Thailand

A bomb blast has torn through the commercial centre of Thailand’s capital Bangkok, killing at least 21 people and wounding 120 more. Police have confirmed that the dead include 10 Thais, one Chinese national and one Filipino. The nationalities of the others who died in the explosion are still being determined.

The explosive device, believed to be a 3 kilogram pipe bomb, went off at about 19:00 local time (12:00 GMT) on Monday near the Erawan Hindu shrine, a major tourist attraction just off the Ratchaprasong intersection. Police officials have confirmed that a second, similar device was found at the scene of the explosion and has been removed by bomb disposal experts. Nearby offices were evacuated and the intersection was cleared while the operation was in progress, as police officers feared that the second device might explode at any moment. No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.

Described by Prayuth Chan-ocha as “the worst incident that has ever happened in Thailand” , the Thai Prime Minister has accused the attackers of targeting innocent lives and wanting to destroy the country’s economy and tourism. While it is not yet clear who was behind the attack and what their motives were, Prayuth has said that authorities are searching for a individual who was captured CCTV near the scene of the bombing.

Speculation has been rife as the the attacker’s allegiances, with some suggesting Malay Muslim insurgents from the country’s south who have been fighting Thai rule for over a decade and others accusing the Red Shirt movement, an anti-government group from the North East. A less plausible alternative is that Chinese Uighurs, the Muslim minority group from Xinjiang region in western China, targeted the site, which is known to be popular with Chinese tourists. If this were the case, and it seems unlikely that it is, it could conceivably be in retaliation for the deportation of 100 Uighurs from Thailand to China last month.

Constitutional Crisis Unfolds in Guinea-Bissau

After weeks of tensions between the country’s President and Prime Minister, a constitutional crisis has unfolded in Guinea-Bissau in the wake of President Jose Mario Vaz’ dismissal of Prime Minister Domingoes Simoes Pereira. The constitutional crisis has raised fears of a coup, with regional leaders calling on the army to stay out of the issue.

According to a presidential decree, released Thursday (13 August), Guinea-Bissau’s President Jose Mario Vaz has dismissed the government following a row with the prime minister. The decree disclosed that “the government headed by Prime Minister Domingoes Simoes Pereira has been dissolved.” The 16-member government took office in July 2014, just two months after Vaz become the country’s first elected civilian leader. The move comes after the president acknowledged a “crisis” in relations with the prime minister that were undermining the functioning of the government. In a broadcast to the nation late Wednesday, Vaz stated that “it is public knowledge that there is a crisis undermining the proper working of institutions.” He further stated that “the efforts made did not succeed in resolving difficult relations between the president and the prime minister,” adding that a government reshuffle would have been inadequate. The president disclosed that contentious issues included the appointment of a new armed force’s chief as well as corruption. Vaz and Pereira are both members of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC).

The following day, Friday 14 August, the ruling party demanded the reinstatement of Prime Minister Domingoes Simoes Pereira. Speaking after meeting with President Jose Mario Vaz, Pereira stated, “we’ve told the president that our constitution and the party status are clear – the prime minister is the leader of the party that has won the elections.” Several senior officials from the PAIGC have disclosed that they made similar demands to the president and that they back Pereira. On Saturday, a member of the ruling PAIGC party disclosed that the party has renominated Domingoes Simoes Pereira as Prime Minister. According to party vice-president Adja Satu Camara, “we sent back Friday the proposal of our party concerning the future prime minister. It is the president of the party, Domingoes Simoes Pereira,” adding that if the country’s leader rejects the proposal, the party will pursue all available options. So far that president has not reacted to the move.

The constitutional crisis in Guinea-Bissau has prompted regional leaders to warn the army to stay out of the issue. On Sunday, West African nations warned the army to stay out of Guinea-Bissau’s constitutional crisis, stating that only dialogue would end the standoff between the president and the premier, whom he dismissed earlier in the week. Senegal’s President Macky Sall, who heads the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which groups fifteen countries, appealed for talks between the two men to end weeks of tension. In a statement, he urged them “to continue to explore peaceful ways of resolving the impasse and the armed forces to respect their undertakings to stay out of politics.” The call comes just days after the UN Security Council on Friday discussed the unfolding crisis in Guinea-Bissau, stressing that security forces must stay out of it. In a unanimous statement, the 15-member UN Security Council urged all sides to “resolve the ongoing political dispute in the interest of peace in Guinea-Bissau,” adding that Council members “underscored the importance of non-interference of security forces in the political situation.” The Council has indicated that it will continue to monitor the situation closely.

Demonstrators in Ecuador Call for Nationwide Strike

In Ecuador demonstrators have called for a nationwide strike to protest moves made by President Rafael Correa to secure a fourth term in office and increase taxation. In response, Correa has called out his own supporters and hinted darkly that a coup attempt organised by his political rivals may be in the offing.

In office since 2007, Correa is not presently able to stand for re-election in 2017. He has, however, lent his support to a constitutional reform package that would would enable him to hold office indefinitely. This, in addition to an economic slowdown brought about by declining crude oil prices has hit the South American country hard and caused widespread discontent. Nevertheless, Correa remains a relatively popular figure, especially amongst the nation’s poor. Over the last eight years, Correa has been publicly feted for re-investing the country’s oil wealth into infrastructure projects like new roads, schools and hospitals, and for dramatically reducing poverty. As recently as 2013, he was re-elected with a large majority after embracing the ideals of Venezuelan-style 21st Century Socialism. A divisive figure, Correa continues to maintain that his fiscal reforms will promote more effective wealth distribution throughout the country.

On Thursday, union leaders, workers, business owners and indigenous Ecuadorians blocked roads to the capital Quito, united by their opposition to Correa but motivated by often conflicting principles. From the business sector, protestors demonstrated against the introduction of import tariffs and a 75% tax on capital gains from inheritances and real estate sales. At the same time, union leaders were angered by the introduction of a labour code that they claim would criminalise dissent by removing freedoms of protest and association. Indigenous protesters, who have been amongst the most vocal critics of Correa, blocked roads in six of Ecuador’s twenty four provinces, including the Pan-American Highway near the Cotopaxi volcano, a popular tourist attraction. According to Carlos Perez, a protest leader and one of the many indigenous Ecuadoreans who journeyed 800 kilometres to Quito to take part in the demonstrations said “We have declared an uprising. For us, Correa has fallen from grace. He doesn’t represent us anymore…We don’t want indefinite reelection because we’re going to end up in a dictatorship.”

Police have been deployed in key cities throughout Ecuador, including 5,000 officers in Quito, but so far there have been no reports of serious violence breaking out. By and large, the protests have not succeeded in galvanising the kind of grass root support necessary to force Correa from office. Despite the call for a nationwide strike, education, transport and health services were all functioning normally in the country’s largest cities. On Twitter, Correa called the strike a failure, saying “Situation normal in all major cities.”